Comparison of Differences in Cohort (Forward) and Case Control (Backward) Methodologic Approaches for Validation of the Hypotension Prediction Index.

BACKGROUND: The Hypotension Prediction Index (the index) software is a machine learning algorithm that detects physiologic changes that may lead to hypotension. The original validation used a case control (backward) analysis that has been suggested to be biased. This study therefore conducted a cohort (forward) analysis and compared this to the original validation technique. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data from previously reported studies was conducted. All data were analyzed identically with two different methodologies, and receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed. Both backward and forward analyses were performed to examine differences in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the Hypotension Prediction Index and other hemodynamic variables to predict a mean arterial pressure (MAP) less than 65 mmHg for at least 1 min 5, 10, and 15 min in advance. RESULTS: The analysis included 2,022 patients, yielding 4,152,124 measurements taken at 20-s intervals. The area under the curve for the index predicting hypotension analyzed by backward and forward methodologies respectively was 0.957 (95% CI, 0.947 to 0.964) versus 0.923 (95% CI, 0.912 to 0.933) 5 min in advance, 0.933 (95% CI, 0.924 to 0.942) versus 0.923 (95% CI, 0.911 to 0.933) 10 min in advance, and 0.929 (95% CI, 0.918 to 0.938) versus 0.926 (95% CI, 0.914 to 0.937) 15 min in advance. No variable other than MAP had an area under the curve greater than 0.7. The areas under the curve using forward analysis for MAP predicting hypotension 5, 10, and 15 min in advance were 0.932 (95% CI, 0.920 to 0.940), 0.929 (95% CI, 0.918 to 0.938), and 0.932 (95% CI, 0.921 to 0.940), respectively. The R2 for the variation in the index due to MAP was 0.77. CONCLUSIONS: Using an updated methodology, the study found that the utility of the Hypotension Prediction Index to predict future hypotensive events is high, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve similar to that of the original validation method.

Sevoflurane based anaesthesia does not affect already impaired cerebral autoregulation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: The baroreflex regulates arterial blood pressure (BP). During periods when blood pressure changes, cerebral blood flow (CBF) is kept constant by cerebral autoregulation (CA). In patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), low baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) is associated with impaired CA. As sevoflurane-based anaesthesia obliterates BRS, we hypothesised that this could aggravate the already impaired CA in patients with DM resulting in a 'double-hit' on cerebral perfusion leading to increased fluctuations in blood pressure and cerebral perfusion. METHODS: On the day before surgery, we measured CBF velocity (CBFV), heart rate, and BP to determine BRS and CA efficacy (CBFVmean-to-BPmean-phase lead) in 25 patients with DM and in 14 controls. During the operation, BRS and CA efficacy were determined during sevoflurane-based anaesthesia. Patients with DM were divided into a group with high BRS (DMBRS↑) and a group with low BRS (DMBRS↓). Values presented are median (inter-quartile range). RESULTS: Preoperative vs intraoperative BRS was 6.2 (4.5-8.5) vs 1.9 (1.1-2.5, P<0.001) ms mm Hg-1 for controls, 5.8 (4.9-7.6) vs 2.7 (1.5-3.9, P<0.001) ms mm Hg-1 for patients with DMBRS↑, and 1.9 (1.5-2.8) vs 1.1 (0.6-2.5, P=0.31) ms mm Hg-1 for patients with DMBRS↓. Preoperative vs intraoperative CA efficacy was 43° (38-46) vs 43° (38-51, P=0.30), 44° (36-49) vs 41° (32-49, P=0.52), and 34° (28-40) vs 30° (27-38, P=0.64) for controls, DMBRS↑, and DMBRS↓ patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In diabetic patients with low preoperative BRS, preoperative CA efficacy was also impaired. In controls and diabetic patients, CA was unaffected by sevoflurane-based anaesthesia. We therefore conclude that sevoflurane-based anaesthesia does not contribute to a 'double-hit' phenomenon on cerebral perfusion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT 03071432.