The impact of loss to follow-up in the Dutch organised HPV-based cervical cancer screening programme.

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) within cervical screening programmes can result in missed clinically relevant lesions, potentially reducing programme effectiveness. To examine the health impact of losing women during the screening process, we determined the proportion of women LTFU per step of the Dutch hrHPV-based screening programme. We then determined the probability of being LTFU by age, screening history and sampling method (self- or clinician-sampled) using logistic regression analysis. Finally, we estimated the number of missed CIN2+/3+ lesions per LTFU moment by using the CIN-risk in women compliant with follow-up. Data from the Dutch nationwide pathology databank (Palga) was used. Women eligible for screening in 2017 and 2018 were included (N = 840,428). For clinician collected (CC) samples, the highest proportion LTFU was found following 'referral advice for colposcopy' (5.5% after indirect referral; 3.8% after direct referral). For self-sampling, the highest proportions LTFU were found following the advice for repeat cytology (13.6%) and after referral advice for colposcopy (8.2% after indirect referral; 4.3% after direct referral). Self-sampling users and women with no screening history had a higher LTFU-risk (OR: 3.87, CI: 3.55-4.23; OR: 1.39, CI: 1.20-1.61) compared to women that used CC sampling and women that have been screened before, respectively. Of all women LTFU in 2017/18, the total number of potentially missed CIN2+ was 844 (21% of women LTFU). Most lesions were missed after 'direct referral for colposcopy' (N = 462, 11.5% of women LTFU). So, this indicates a gap between the screening programme and clinical care which requires further attention, by improving monitoring of patients after referral.

Influence of incomplete death information on cumulative risk estimates in US claims data.

Administrative claims databases often do not capture date or fact of death, so studies using these data may inappropriately treat death as a censoring event-equivalent to other withdrawal reasons-rather than a competing event. We examined 1-, 3-, and 5-year inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted cumulative risks of a composite cardiovascular outcome among 34 527 initiators of telmisartan (exposure) and ramipril (referent), who were aged ≥55 years, in Optum (United States) claims data from 2003 to 2020. Differences in cumulative risks of the cardiovascular endpoint due to censoring of death (cause-specific), as compared with treating death as a competing event (subdistribution), increased with greater follow-up time and older age, where event and mortality risks were higher. Among ramipril users, 5-year cause-specific and subdistribution cumulative risk estimates per 100, respectively, were 16.4 (95% CI, 15.3-17.5) and 16.2 (95% CI, 15.1-17.3) among ages 55-64 (difference = 0.2) and were 43.2 (95% CI, 41.3-45.2) and 39.7 (95% CI, 37.9-41.4) among ages ≥75 (difference = 3.6). Plasmode simulation results demonstrated the differences in cause-specific versus subdistribution cumulative risks to increase with increasing mortality rate. We suggest researchers consider the cohort's baseline mortality risk when deciding whether real-world data with incomplete death information can be used without concern. This article is part of a Special Collection on Pharmacoepidemiology.

Long-term risk of mortality and loss to follow-up in children and adolescents on antiretroviral therapy in Asia.

OBJECTIVE: We described mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in children and adolescents who were under care for more than 5 years following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: Patients were followed from 5 years after ART until the earlier of their 25th birthday, last visit, death, or LTFU. We used Cox regression to assess predictors of mortality and competing risk regression to assess factors associated with LTFU. RESULTS: In total, 4488 children and adolescents initiating ART between 1997 and 2016 were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up time of 5.2 years. Of these, 107 (2.2%) died and 271 (6.0%) were LTFU. Mortality rate was 4.35 and LTFU rate 11.01 per 1000 person-years. Increased mortality was associated with AIDS diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-2.37), current CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 compared with ≥500 (highest aHR 13.85; 95% CI 6.91-27.76 for CD4 <200), viral load ≥10 000 copies/mL compared with <400 (aHR 3.28; 95% CI 1.90-5.63), and exposure to more than one ART regimen (aHR 1.51; 95% CI 1.14-2.00). Factors associated with LTFU were male sex (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [asHR] 1.29; 95% CI 1.04-1.59), current viral load >1000 copies/mL compared with <400 (highest asHR 2.36; 95% CI 1.19-4.70 for viral load 1000-9999), and ART start after year 2005 compared with ≤2005 (highest asHR 5.96; 95% CI 1.98-17.91 for 2010-2016). CONCLUSION: For children and adolescents surviving 5 years on ART, both current CD4 and viral load remained strong indicators that help to keep track of their treatment outcomes. More effort should be made to monitor patients who switch treatments.

Health System Encounters after Loss to Cardiology Follow-Up Among Patients with Congenital Heart Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze receipt of care at other locations within a single rural academic health system after loss to follow-up in a cardiology clinic. STUDY DESIGN: Patients with congenital heart defects seen in the clinic during 2018 and subsequently lost to cardiology follow-up were included in the study. We defined loss to follow-up as not being seen in the clinic for at least 6 months past the most recently recommended follow-up visit. Subsequent visits to other locations, including other subspecialty clinics, primary care clinics, the emergency department, and the hospital, were tracked through 2020. RESULTS: Of 235 patients (median age 7 years, 136/99 female/male), 96 (41%) were seen elsewhere in the health system. Of 96 patients with any follow-up, 40 were seen by a primary care provider and 46 by another specialist; 44 were seen in the emergency department and 12 more were hospitalized. Patients with medical comorbidities or Medicaid insurance and those living closer to the clinic were more likely to continue receiving care within the same health system. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with congenital heart defect are frequently lost to cardiology follow-up. Our study supports collaboration across specialties and between cardiology clinics and affiliated emergency departments to identify patients with congenital heart defect who have been lost to cardiology follow-up but remain within the health system. A combination of in-person and remote outreach to these patients may help them continue cardiology care.

Hepatitis C epidemiology and treatment outcomes in Italy: Impact of the DAA era and the COVID-19 pandemic.

HCV infection poses a global health threat, with significant morbidity and mortality. This study examines HCV trends in a large Italian region from 2015 to 2022, considering demographic changes, evolving clinical profiles, treatment regimens and outcomes, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This multicentre retrospective study analysed demographics, clinical histories and risk factors in 6882 HCV patients. The study spanned before and after the direct-acting antiviral (DAA) era, and the COVID-19 period, focusing on treatment outcomes (SVR12, non-SVR12 and patients lost to follow-up). Statistical methods included ANOVA, multinomial logistic regression, Kruskal-Wallis test and chi-square analysis, and were conducted adhering to the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle. The cohort, mainly Italian males (average age 58.88), showed Genotype 1 dominance (56.6%) and a high SVR12 rate (97.5%). The pandemic increased follow-up losses, yet SVR12 rates remained stable, influenced by factors like age, gender, cirrhosis and comorbidities. Despite COVID-19 challenges, the region sustained high SVR12 rates in HCV care, emphasising the importance of sustained efforts in HCV care. Continuous screening and targeted interventions in high-risk populations are crucial for achieving WHO elimination targets. The study highlights the resilience of HCV care during the pandemic and provides insights for future public health strategies.

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

Factors associated with loss to follow up after abnormal cervical cancer screening in pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors associated with loss to follow up in patients referred for colposcopy after abnormal cervical cytology during pregnancy in a Southern safety net hospital population. METHODS: An urban colposcopy center was queried for patients referred for follow up of abnormal cervical cytology during pregnancy and the postpartum period. Patients were identified through a standardized referral code in the electronic medical record. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare patient characteristics between those who followed up for colposcopy and those lost to follow up. Independent risk factors assessed included age, parity, race, insurance, HIV status, history of mental illness, BMI, gestational age and trimester at screening, cytology at colposcopy referral, interval days until colposcopy, and biopsy histology. RESULTS: 1063 patients were identified, with 40.8% of patients who completed referred colposcopy. Patient characteristics predictive for colposcopy follow up included: maternal age at referral cervical cytology >30 years (1.67; 1.27-2.20; < 0.003), gestational age < 18 weeks at abnormal cervical cytology (1.57; 1.23-2.01; <0.0002), maternal race non-African American (2.20; 1.32-3.65; <0.0024) and with high grade cervical cytology (2.42; 1.81-3.24; <0.0001). CONCLUSION: In this population, inadequate follow up for abnormal cervical cytology during pregnancy is prominent, especially among those with younger maternal age, African American (AA) race, cervical cytology completed at later gestational ages of pregnancy, and low-grade initial cytology. Higher no-show rate among AA patients supports well-documented health disparities and need for further investigation and protocols to identify those at risk for loss to follow up.

Developing survey weights to ensure representativeness in a national, matched cohort study: results from the children and young people with Long Covid (CLoCk) study.

BACKGROUND: Findings from studies assessing Long Covid in children and young people (CYP) need to be assessed in light of their methodological limitations. For example, if non-response and/or attrition over time systematically differ by sub-groups of CYP, findings could be biased and any generalisation limited. The present study aimed to (i) construct survey weights for the Children and young people with Long Covid (CLoCk) study, and (ii) apply them to published CLoCk findings showing the prevalence of shortness of breath and tiredness increased over time from baseline to 12-months post-baseline in both SARS-CoV-2 Positive and Negative CYP. METHODS: Logistic regression models were fitted to compute the probability of (i) Responding given envisioned to take part, (ii) Responding timely given responded, and (iii) (Re)infection given timely response. Response, timely response and (re)infection weights were generated as the reciprocal of the corresponding probability, with an overall 'envisioned population' survey weight derived as the product of these weights. Survey weights were trimmed, and an interactive tool developed to re-calibrate target population survey weights to the general population using data from the 2021 UK Census. RESULTS: Flexible survey weights for the CLoCk study were successfully developed. In the illustrative example, re-weighted results (when accounting for selection in response, attrition, and (re)infection) were consistent with published findings. CONCLUSIONS: Flexible survey weights to address potential bias and selection issues were created for and used in the CLoCk study. Previously reported prospective findings from CLoCk are generalisable to the wider population of CYP in England. This study highlights the importance of considering selection into a sample and attrition over time when considering generalisability of findings.

Tracking People Living with HIV in Loss to Follow Up in Central Brazil: A Call for Attention to Health Services.

Despite the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains a global public health concern. However, weaknesses in its management regarding access to integrated HIV care include treatment gaps and loss to follow-up (LTFU) from antiretroviral treatment (ART). This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological and clinical profiles of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) in LTFU from HIV care in Campo Grande, Central Brazil. This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted between January 2021 and April 2022 using secondary data from PLHA who had LTFU in Campo Grande. A total of 852 patients with PLHA were included in this study. The majority of participants in LTFU were male (63.1%), had a CD4 cell count > 200 cells/mm3 (68.2%), and had been treated for ≥ 3 months (86.4%). Only 287 (33.7%) participants had undetectable HIV viral load. Of the total number of patients who returned to treatment during the study period, 448 (54.3%) were LTFU-positive. The tracking strategy was not applied to 556 (65.26%) patients, and 44.4% of the participants had been in spontaneous demand. These results highlight the relevance of patient-centered interventions and the need to ensure early treatment and promote retention in care systems with consequent viral suppression, impacting the healthcare indicators of the population, with emphasis on health managers and stakeholders in HIV care.

Broadening and strengthening the health providers caring for patients with chronic hepatitis C may improve continuity of care.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies for hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) lead to excellent rates of sustained virological response (SVR). However, loss to follow-up (LTFU) for SVR testing remains a challenge. We examine factors associated with LTFU in a real-world setting. METHODS: Adults who received DAA therapy for HCV in one of 26 centers across Australia during 2016-2021 were followed up for 2 years. Data sources included the patient medical records and the national Pharmaceutical and Medicare Benefits Schemes. Linkage to Medicare provided utilization data of other health-care providers and re-treatment with DAAs. LTFU was defined as no clinic attendance for SVR testing by at least 52 weeks after DAA treatment commencement. Multivariable logistic regression assessed factors associated with LTFU. RESULTS: In 3619 patients included in the study (mean age 52.0 years; SD = 10.5), 33.6% had cirrhosis (69.4% Child-Pugh class B/C), and 19.3% had HCV treatment prior to the DAA era. Five hundred and fifteen patients (14.2%) were LTFU. HCV treatment initiation in 2017 or later (adj-OR = 2.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.25-3.54), younger age (adj-OR = 2.63, 95% CI 1.80-3.84), Indigenous identification (adj-OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.23-3.21), current injection drug use or opioid replacement therapy (adj-OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.25-2.20), depression treatment (adj-OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.17-1.90), and male gender (adj-OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.66) were associated with LTFU. CONCLUSIONS: These findings stress the importance of strengthening the network of providers caring for patients with HCV. In particular, services targeting vulnerable groups of patients such as First Nations Peoples, youth health, and those with addiction and mental health disorders should be equipped to treat HCV.

Barriers and facilitators of retention in care after cervical cancer screening: patients' and healthcare providers' perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer continues to threaten women's health, especially in low-resource settings. Regular follow-up after screening and treatment is an effective strategy for monitoring treatment outcomes. Consequently, understanding the factors contributing to patient non-attendance of scheduled follow-up visits is vital to providing high-quality care, reducing morbidity and mortality, and unnecessary healthcare costs in low-resource settings. METHODS: A descriptive qualitative study was done among healthcare providers and patients who attended the cervical cancer screening clinic at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital in southwestern Uganda. In-depth interviews were conducted using a semi-structured interview guide. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analysed in line with the social-ecological model to identify barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: We conducted 23 in-depth interviews with 5 healthcare providers and 18 patients. Health system barriers included long waiting time at the facility, long turnaround time for laboratory results, congestion and lack of privacy affecting counselling, and healthcare provider training gaps. The most important interpersonal barrier among married women was lacking support from male partners. Individual-level barriers were lack of money for transport, fear of painful procedures, emotional distress, and illiteracy. Inadequate and inaccurate information was a cross-cutting barrier across the individual, interpersonal, and community levels of the socio-ecological model. The facilitators were social support, positive self-perception, and patient counselling. CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed barriers to retention in care after cervical cancer screening, including lack of partner support, financial and educational constraints, and inadequate information. It also found facilitators that included social support, positive self-perception, and effective counselling.

Machine learning algorithms using national registry data to predict loss to follow-up during tuberculosis treatment.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at increased risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) is key to developing strategies to optimize the clinical management of tuberculosis (TB). The use of national registry data in prediction models may be a useful tool to inform healthcare workers about risk of LTFU. Here we developed a score to predict the risk of LTFU during anti-TB treatment (ATT) in a nationwide cohort of cases using clinical data reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Disease Information System (SINAN). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of all TB cases reported to SINAN between 2015 and 2022; excluding children (< 18 years-old), vulnerable groups or drug-resistant TB. For the score, data before treatment initiation were used. We trained and internally validated three different prediction scoring systems, based on Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting. Before applying our models we splitted our data into training (~ 80% data) and test (~ 20%) sets, and then compared the model metrics using the test data set. RESULTS: Of the 243,726 cases included, 41,373 experienced LTFU whereas 202,353 were successfully treated. The groups were different with regards to several clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. The directly observed treatment (DOT) was unbalanced between the groups with lower prevalence in those who were LTFU. Three models were developed to predict LTFU using 8 features (prior TB, drug use, age, sex, HIV infection and schooling level) with different score composition approaches. Those prediction scoring systems exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) ranging between 0.71 and 0.72. The Light Gradient Boosting technique resulted in the best prediction performance, weighting specificity and sensitivity. A user-friendly web calculator app was developed ( https://tbprediction.herokuapp.com/ ) to facilitate implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Our nationwide risk score predicts the risk of LTFU during ATT in Brazilian adults prior to treatment commencement utilizing schooling level, sex, age, prior TB status, and substance use (drug, alcohol, and/or tobacco). This is a potential tool to assist in decision-making strategies to guide resource allocation, DOT indications, and improve TB treatment adherence.

Travel distance to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis treatment and its impact on loss to follow-up: the importance of continued RR-TB treatment decentralization in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Understanding why patients experience loss to follow-up (LTFU) is essential for TB control. This analysis examines the impact of travel distance to RR-TB treatment on LTFU, which has yet to be analyzed within South Africa. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1436 patients treated for RR-TB at ten South African public hospitals. We linked patients to their residential ward using data reported to NHLS and maps available from the Municipal Demarcation Board. Travel distance was calculated from each patient's ward centroid to their RR-TB treatment site using the georoute command in Stata. The relationship between LTFU and travel distance was modeled using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 1436 participants, 75.6% successfully completed treatment and 24.4% were LTFU. The median travel distance was 40.96 km (IQR: 17.12, 63.49). A travel distance > 60 km increased odds of LTFU by 91% (p = 0.001) when adjusting for HIV status, age, sex, education level, employment status, residential locale, treatment regimen, and treatment site. CONCLUSION: People living in KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape travel long distances to receive RR-TB care, placing them at increased risk for LTFU. Policies that bring RR-TB treatment closer to patients, such as further decentralization to PHCs, are necessary to improve RR-TB outcomes.

Incidence of loss to follow-up and its predictors among HIV-infected under-five children after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in West Amhara Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia: a multicenter retrospective follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) among under-five children from HIV care profoundly affects the treatment outcomes of this vulnerable population. It is a major factor that negatively affects the benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Current information about LTFU among HIV-positive under-five children on ART is essential for effective treatments. To far, nevertheless, limited research has been done in Ethiopia to address this issue. Thus, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of LTFU among HIV-infected under-five children receiving ART in West Amhara Comprehensive Specialized Referral Hospitals. METHODS: A multicenter institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 435 HIV-infected under-five children on ART selected by simple random sampling from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019, and data were collected between December 1, 2021, and January 31, 2022. A standardized data extraction tool adapted from the ART entry and follow-up forms was used. The event of interest for this study was LTFU, whereas the absence of LTFU was censored. Before being transferred to STATA version 14 for analysis, the data were entered into Epi-Data version 3.1. The Kaplan‒Meier curve was used to estimate an individual's survival-free probability at each specific point in time. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of LTFU. RESULTS: Among the 420 records included in the final analysis, 30 (7.14%) of the individuals were LTFUs. The incidence rate of LTFU was 3.4 per 1000 person-months of observation (95% CI: 2.43-4.87). The survival probabilities of children after 12, 24, 36, and 48 months were 0.97, 0.92, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. The independent predictors of LTFU were HIV infection in under-five children who lived in rural areas (AHR = 3.64; 95% CI: 1.41, 9.37), poor adherence to ART (AHR = 4.37; 95% CI: 1.59, 12.02), not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (AHR = 3.75; 95% CI: 1.39, 10.08), not receiving isoniazid prophylaxis (AHR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.29, 9.01), and having a severe WHO clinical stage (AHR = 5.43; 95% CI: 1.38, 11.43). CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: The incidence of loss to follow-up was high, especially in the first two years after ART initiation. The risk of LTFU was greater for those who were rural residents, had poor adherence, lacked cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, not given isoniazid prophylaxis, and presented with WHO clinical stages III and IV. Therefore, clinicians should emphasize for cotrimoxazole preventive therapy and isoniazid prophylaxis, for those living in rural areas, who present with poor adherence and WHO clinical stages III and IV.

Transition of care in CHD: a single-centre experience: an enigma remains.

Transition of care refers to the continuity of health care during the movement from one healthcare setting to another as care needs change during a chronic illness. We sought to describe social, demographic, and clinical factors related to successful transition in a tertiary urban care facility in patients with CHD. Patients were identified utilising the electronic medical record. Inclusion criteria were patients with CHDs aged ≥15 years seen in the paediatric cardiology clinic between 2013 and 2014. Deceased patients were excluded. Clinical and demographic variables were collected. Patient charts were reviewed in 2015-2021 to determine if included patients were a) still in paediatric cardiology care, b) transitioned to adult cardiology/adult CHD, or were c) lost to follow-up. A total of 322 patients, 53% male (N:172), 46% female (N:149) were included. Majority had moderately complex lesions (N:132, 41%). Most patients had public insurance (N:172, 53%), followed by private insurance (N:67, 21%), while 15% of patients (N:47) were uninsured. Only 49% (N = 159) had successful transition, while 22% (N = 70) continued in care with paediatric cardiology, and 29% (N = 93) were lost to follow-up. Severity of CHD (p = 0.0002), having healthcare insurance (p < .0001), presence of a defibrillator (p = 0.0028), and frequency of paediatric cardiology visits (p = 0.0005) were significantly associated with successful transition. Most patients lost to follow-up (N:42,62%) were either uninsured or had public insurance. Lack of successful transition is multifactorial, and further efforts are needed to improve the process in patients with CHD.

Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes in Brazil: Different Predictors for Each Type of Unsuccessful Outcome.

BACKGROUND: Successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment is necessary for disease control. The World Health Organization (WHO) has a target TB treatment success rate of ≥90%. We assessed whether the different types of unfavorable TB treatment outcome had different predictors. METHODS: Using data from Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis-Brazil, we evaluated biological and behavioral factors associated with each component of unsuccessful TB outcomes, recently updated by WHO (death, loss to follow-up [LTFU], and treatment failure). We included culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary TB participants receiving standard treatment in 2015-2019. Multinomial logistic regression models with inverse probability weighting were used to evaluate the distinct determinants of each unsuccessful outcome. RESULTS: Of 915 participants included, 727 (79%) were successfully treated, 118 (13%) were LTFU, 44 (5%) had treatment failure, and 26 (3%) died. LTFU was associated with current drug-use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-9.4), current tobacco use (aOR = 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9), and being a person with HIV (PWH) (aOR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5). Treatment failure was associated with PWH (aOR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2-6.2) and having diabetes (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI, 1.1-4.4). Death was associated with anemia (aOR = 5.3; 95% CI, 1.4-19.7), diabetes (aOR = 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-6.7), and PWH (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI, 1.3-11.4). Direct observed therapy was protective for treatment failure (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .3-.9) and death (aOR = 0.5; 95% CI, .2-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment success rate was below the WHO target. Behavioral factors were most associated with LTFU, whereas clinical comorbidities were correlated with treatment failure and death. Because determinants of unsuccessful outcomes are distinct, different intervention strategies may be needed to improve TB outcomes.

Same-Day Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation as a Predictor of Loss to Follow-up and Viral Suppression Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Treat-All guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people with HIV (PWH) on the day of diagnosis when possible, yet uncertainty exists about the impact of same-day ART initiation on subsequent care engagement. We examined the association of same-day ART initiation with loss to follow-up and viral suppression among patients in 11 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: We included ART-naive adult PWH from sites participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium who enrolled in care after Treat-All implementation and prior to January 2019. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate the association between same-day ART initiation and loss to follow-up and Poisson regression to estimate the association between same-day ART initiation and 6-month viral suppression. RESULTS: Among 29 017 patients from 63 sites, 18 584 (64.0%) initiated ART on the day of enrollment. Same-day ART initiation was less likely among those with advanced HIV disease versus early-stage disease. Loss to follow-up was significantly lower among those initiating ART ≥1 day of enrollment, compared with same-day ART initiators (20.6% vs 27.7%; adjusted hazard ratio: .66; 95% CI .57-.76). No difference in viral suppression was observed by time to ART initiation (adjusted rate ratio: 1.00; 95% CI: .98-1.02). CONCLUSIONS: Patients initiating ART on the day of enrollment were more frequently lost to follow-up than those initiating later but were equally likely to be virally suppressed. Our findings support recent World Health Organization recommendations for providing tailored counseling and support to patients who accept an offer of same-day ART.

Loss to follow-up of minorities, adolescents, and young adults on clinical trials: A report from the Children's Oncology Group.

BACKGROUND: The increasing number of childhood cancer survivors necessitates continued follow-up to monitor for long-term complications. Inequities in loss to follow-up for patients enrolled on pediatric clinical trials have not been well studied. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 21,084 patients residing in the United States enrolled on phase 2/3 and phase 3 Children's Oncology Group (COG) trials between January 1, 2000 and March 31, 2021. Rates of loss to follow-up to COG were evaluated using log-rank tests and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Demographic characteristics included age at enrollment, race, ethnicity, and zip code level socioeconomic data. RESULTS: Adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients 15-39 years old at diagnosis had an increased hazard of loss to follow-up compared to patients 0-14 years old (HR, 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.76-2.02). In the overall cohort, non-Hispanic Blacks were found to have an increased hazard of loss to follow-up compared to non-Hispanic Whites (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.43-1.70). Among AYAs, the highest loss to follow-up rates were among non-Hispanic Blacks (69.8% ± 3.1%), patients on germ cell tumor trials (78.2% ± 9.2%), and patients living in zip codes with a median household income ≤150% of the federal poverty line at diagnosis (66.7% ± 2.4%). CONCLUSIONS: AYAs, racial and ethnic minority patients, and those living in lower socioeconomic status areas had the highest rates of loss to follow-up among clinical trial participants. Targeted interventions are warranted to ensure equitable follow-up and improved assessment of long-term outcomes. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Little is known about disparities in loss to follow-up for pediatric cancer clinical trial participants. In this study, we found that participants who were adolescents and young adults when treated, those who identified as a racial and/or ethnic minority, or those residing in areas with lower socioeconomic status at diagnosis were associated with higher rates of loss to follow-up. As a result, the ability to assess their long-term survival, treatment-related health conditions, and quality of life is hindered. These findings suggest the need for targeted interventions to improve long-term follow-up among disadvantaged pediatric clinical trial participants.

Who is lost to follow-up in HIV care? Assessment of care retention over time and the impact of COVID-19. Longitudinal analysis of the PISCIS cohort.

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV who are lost to follow-up have a greater risk of health deterioration, mortality, and community transmission. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to analyse both how rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) changed between 2006 and 2020 and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected these rates in the PISCIS cohort study of Catalonia and the Balearic Islands. METHODS: We analysed socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of LTFU yearly and with adjusted odds ratios to assess the impact of these determinants on LTFU in 2020 (the year of COVID-19). We used latent class analysis to categorize classes of LTFU based on their socio-demographic and clinical characteristics at each year. RESULTS: In total, 16.7% of the cohort were lost to follow-up at any time in the 15 years (n = 19 417). Of people living with HIV who were receiving follow-up, 81.5% were male and 19.5% were female; of those who were lost to follow-up, 79.6% and 20.4% were male and female, respectively (p < 0.001). Although rates of LTFU increased during COVID-19 (1.11% vs. 0.86%, p = 0.024), socio-demographic and clinical factors were similar. Eight classes of people living with HIV who were lost to follow-up were identified: six for men and two for women. Classes of men (n = 3) differed in terms of their country of birth, viral load (VL), and antiretroviral therapy (ART); classes of people who inject drugs (n = 2) differed in terms of VL, AIDS diagnosis, and ART. Changes in rates of LTFU included higher CD4 cell count and undetectable VL. CONCLUSIONS: The socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of people living with HIV changed over time. Although the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic increased the rates of LTFU, the characteristics of these people were similar. Epidemiological trends among people who were lost to follow-up can be used to prevent new losses of care and to reduce barriers to achieve Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets.

Predicting the loss to follow-up (LTFU) of HIV/AIDS patients in China using a recency-frequency (RF) model.

BACKGROUND: We constructed a recency-frequency (RF) model for predicting the loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV/AIDS patients in China. METHODS: Data on HIV/AIDS outpatients in the research unit from 1 August 2009 to 30 September 2020 and from 1 October to 31 December 2020 were exported as the observation and prediction datasets, respectively. The classic recency-frequency-monetary (RFM) model was expanded into RFm, RF, RFL and RFmL models. In the observation dataset, the best predictive model was obtained using k-means clustering and C5.0 verification. Then, two rounds of k-means modelling were performed on the best model: data with R ≤ 6 months were retained, randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a testing set (30%) and used to perform the second round of modelling to subdivide the churn and non-churn patients. Next, an ANN algorithm was used to predict LTFU, and the confusion matrix with prediction datasets was constructed. RESULTS: The observation and prediction datasets included 16 949 and 10 748 samples, respectively. The RF model with three clusters and a quality of 0.82 was the best predictive model. From the observation set, 13 799 samples were retained, and the model accuracy was 100% on the training and testing sets. These 13 799 samples were subdivided into 1563 samples of churn patients and 12 216 samples of non-churn patients. The accuracy of ANN prediction was 99.89%. The accuracy and precision of the confusion matrix were 85.41% and 99.76%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The RF model is effective in predicting the LTFU of HIV/AIDS patients in China and preventing its occurrence.