Inequalities and Trends in Under-Five Mortality Between Formal and Informal Areas in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

The physical expansion of the city of Ouagadougou, the capital and largest city of Burkina Faso, subsided in 2015 after the government banned land speculation that contributed to the growth and entrenchment of informal areas. The government subsequently implemented social policies such as free health care for pregnant women and children under 5 years of age. Against this background, we tested the convergence of under-5 mortality trends between formal and informal areas in the city between 2010 and 2019; data covering that period came from the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). The analyses included the calculation of all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, the implementation of a Poisson regression model, and competing risk models. Over the study period, children in formal areas had lower mortality than those in informal areas. However, the inequality gap decreased over time due to a faster mortality decline in informal areas. This decline was explained by a rapid decline in deaths from malaria and other causes including sepsis, HIV/AIDS, measles, meningitis, and encephalitis. The pursuit of upgrading informal areas and the implementation of social policies targeting the poorest are likely to accelerate the mortality decline in Ouagadougou overall.

Association between maternal health service utilization and under-five mortality rate in China and its provinces, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal - 3.2 aims to eliminate all preventable under-five mortality rate (U5MR). In China, government have made efforts to provide maternal health services and reduce U5MR. Hence, we aimed to explore maternal health service utilization in relation to U5MR in China and its provinces in 1990-2017. METHODS: We obtained data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, China Health Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and Human Development Report China Special Edition. The trend of U5MR in each province of China from 1990 to 2017 was analyzed using Joinpoint Regression model. We measured the inequities in maternal health services using HEAT Plus, a health inequity measurement tool developed by the UN. The generalized estimating equation model was used to explore the association between maternal health service utilization (including prenatal screening, hospital delivery and postpartum visits) and U5MR. RESULTS: First, in China, the U5MR per 1000 live births decreased from 50 in 1990 to 12 in 2017 and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was - 5.2 (p < 0.05). Secondly, China had a high maternal health service utilization in 2017, with 96.5% for prenatal visits, 99.9% for hospital delivery, and 94% for postnatal visits. Inequity in maternal health services between provinces is declining, with hospital delivery rate showing the greatest decrease (SII, 14.01 to 1.87, 2010 to 2017). Third, an increase in the rate of hospital delivery rate can significantly reduce U5MR (OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.995). Postpartum visits rate with a one-year lag can reduce U5MR (OR 0.993, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.999). However, prenatal screening rate did not have a significant effect on U5MR. CONCLUSION: The decline in U5MR in China was associated with hospital delivery and postpartum visits. The design and implementation of maternal health services may provide references to other low-income and middle-income countries.

Intergenerational Clustering of Under-Five Mortality: A Cohort Perspective in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

A burgeoning demographic literature documents the exceedingly high rates at which contemporary cohorts of women across the Global South experience the death of their children-even amid historic declines in child mortality. Yet, the patterning of maternal bereavement remains underinvestigated, as does the extent to which it replicates across generations of the same family. To that end, we ask: Are the surviving daughters of bereaved mothers more likely to eventually experience maternal bereavement? How does the intergenerational clustering of maternal bereavement vary across countries and cohorts? To answer these questions, we make use of Demographic and Health Survey Program data from 50 low- and middle-income countries, encompassing data on 1.05 million women and their mothers spanning three decadal birth cohorts. Descriptive results demonstrate that maternal bereavement is increasingly patterned intergenerationally across cohorts, with most women experiencing the same fate as their mothers. Multivariable hazard models further show that, on average, women whose mothers were maternally bereaved have significantly increased odds of losing a child themselves. In most countries, the association is stable across cohorts; however, in select countries, the risk associated with having a bereaved mother is shrinking among more recent birth cohorts.

Problems accessing health care and under-5 mortality: a pooled analysis of 50 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Access to health care remains suboptimal in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and continues to hinder survival in early childhood. We systematically assessed the association between problems accessing health care (PAHC) and under-five mortality (U5M). METHODS: Child mortality data on 724 335 livebirths came from the latest Demographic and Health Surveys of 50 LMICs (2013-2021). Reasons for PAHC were classified into three domains: 'money needed for treatment' (economic), 'distance to health facility' (physical), 'getting permission' or 'not wanting to go alone' (socio-cultural). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between PAHC (any and by each type) and U5M. RESULTS: In our pooled sample, 47.3 children per 1000 livebirths died before age of 5, and 57.1% reported having experienced PAHC (ranging from 45.3% in Europe & Central Asia to 72.7% in Latin America & Caribbean). Children with any PAHC had higher odds of U5M (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.09), and this association was especially significant in sub-Saharan Africa. Of different domains of PAHC, socio-cultural PAHC was found to be most significant. CONCLUSIONS: Access to health care in LMICs needs to be improved by expanding health care coverage, building health facilities, and focusing more on context-specific socio-cultural barriers.

Survival among children under-five in India: a parametric multilevel survival approach.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have been conducted on under-five mortality in India and most of them focused on the associations between individual-level factors and under-five mortality risks. On the contrary, only a scarce number of literatures talked about contextual level effect on under-five mortality. Hence, it is very important to have thorough study of under-five mortality at various levels. This can be done by applying multilevel analysis, a method that assesses both fixed and random effects in a single model. The multilevel analysis allows extracting the influence of individual and community characteristics on under-five mortality. Hence, this study would contribute substantially in understanding the under-five mortality from a different perspective. METHOD: The study used data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) acquired in India, i.e., the fourth round of National Family and Health Survey (2015-16). It is a nationally representative repeated cross-sectional data. Multilevel Parametric Survival Model (MPSM) was employed to assess the influence of contextual correlates on the outcome. The assumption behind this study is that 'individuals' (i.e., level-1) are nested within 'districts' (i.e., level-2), and districts are enclosed within 'states' (i.e., level-3). This suggests that people have varying health conditions, residing in dissimilar communities with different characteristics. RESULTS: Highest under-five mortality i.e., 3.85% are happening among those women whose birth interval is less than two years. In case of parity, around 4% under-five mortality is among women with Third and above order parity. Further, findings from the full model is that ICC values of 1.17 and 0.65% are the correlation of the likelihood of having under-five mortality risk among people residing in the state and district communities, respectively. Besides, the risk of dying was increased alarmingly in the first year of life and slowly to aged 3 years and then it remains steady. CONCLUSION: This study has revealed that both aspects viz. individual and contextual effect of the community are necessary to address the importance variations in under-five mortality in India. In order to ensure substantial reduction in under-five mortality, findings of the study support some policy initiatives that involves the need to think beyond individual level effects and considering contextual characteristics.

Drivers of success: improving implementation research tools for better health outcomes.

A thorough examination of context, and how it influences implementation of evidence-based interventions, is a promising strategy for enhancing child survival initiatives. Spreading approaches that are identified as drivers of successful reduction in under-five mortality from 'exemplar' countries could be pivotal in leading to reductions in other settings facing stagnant mortality rates, in particular for low- and middle-income countries with high disease burden and insufficient programmatic capacity to effectively implement evidence-based interventions at scale. Yet there remains a lack of robust analytic methods to accurately assess mortality and describe the drivers of interventions' implementation success at both national and subnational levels. The field of implementation science and its defining targets and tools is well positioned to address this knowledge gap by integrating qualitative and quantitative research methods into an adaptable evaluation framework that can be tailored to meet the specific needs across varying country contexts. These tools enhance the measurement of population health outcomes and provide crucial evidence on implementation barriers and facilitators that can inform policies that can be adjusted for diverse contexts. This commentary aims to emphasize the role of implementation research in understanding how exemplar countries achieved significant improvements in child survival and in identifying replicable lessons for other settings. Ultimately, all manuscripts underscore the relevance of implementation research in bolstering the reduction of under-five mortality.

Application of machine learning methods for predicting under-five mortality: analysis of Nigerian demographic health survey 2018 dataset.

BACKGROUND: Under-five mortality remains a significant public health issue in developing countries. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms in predicting under-five mortality in Nigeria and identify the most relevant predictors. METHODS: The study used nationally representative data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The study evaluated the performance of the machine learning models such as the artificial neural network, k-nearest neighbourhood, Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression using the true positive rate, false positive rate, accuracy, precision, F-measure, Matthew's correlation coefficient, and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics. RESULTS: The study found that machine learning models can accurately predict under-five mortality, with the Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network algorithms emerging as the best models, both achieving an accuracy of 89.47% and an AUROC of 96%. The results show that under-five mortality rates vary significantly across different characteristics, with wealth index, maternal education, antenatal visits, place of delivery, employment status of the woman, number of children ever born, and region found to be the top determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that machine learning models can be useful in predicting U5M in Nigeria with high accuracy. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing social, economic, and demographic disparities among the population in Nigeria. The study's findings can inform policymakers and health workers about developing targeted interventions to reduce under-five mortality in Nigeria.

Disentangling the link between social determinants of health and child survival in Nigeria during the Sustainable Development Goals era: a hierarchical path analysis of time-to-event outcome.

While social determinants of health have been perennially linked to child survival in resource-limited countries, the precise and tested pathways to effect are not clearly understood. The objective of this study was therefore to identify the critical pathways as posited a priori in a model through which social factors (at maternal, household, and community levels) determine neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities in Nigeria. Using a novel analytic approach (hierarchical path modelling for predicting accelerated failure time) to estimate (in)direct and total effects of social determinants of child survival, we analysed 30,960 live births (weighted data for representativeness), obtained from the 2016/2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. There were three outcome variables: time until occurrence of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities. The independent variables were layered factors related to child, maternal, household and community. Geographical region, rurality of residence, infrastructural development, maternal education, contraceptive use, marital status, and maternal age at birth were found to operate more indirectly on neonatal, infant, and under-five survival. Child survival is due to direct effects of child's sex (female), gestational type (singleton), birth spacing (children whose mothers delivered at least two years apart), and maternal age at delivery (20-34 years). According to the path coefficients, the indirect effects of geographical regions are the most influential determinants of child survival, accounting for 30% (neonatal), 37.1% (infant) and 39.9% (under-five) of the total effects. This study offers comprehensive set of factors, and linked pathways, at the maternal, household, and community levels that are associated with child survival in Nigeria. To accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goal targets for child survival and reduce geographical inequities, stakeholders should implement more impactful policies that promote maternal education, contraceptive use and improve living conditions of women (especially in rural areas of northern Nigeria). Future research should focus on identifying the most effective interventions for addressing these social determinants of child survival in Nigeria.

Antenatal care coverage and early childhood mortality in Zimbabwe: new interpretations from nationally representative household surveys.

Zimbabwe has implemented universal antenatal care (ANC) policies since 1980 that have significantly contributed to improvements in ANC access and early childhood mortality rates. However, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), two of Zimbabwe's main sources of health data and evidence, often provide seemingly different estimates of ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates. This creates confusion that can result in disparate policies and practices, with potential negative impacts on mother and child health in Zimbabwe. We conducted a comparability analysis of multiple DHS and MICS datasets to enhance the understanding of point estimates, temporal changes, rural-urban differences and reliability of estimates of ANC coverage and neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates (NMR, IMR and U5MR, separately) from 2009 to 2019 in Zimbabwe. Our two samples z-tests revealed that both DHS and MICS indicated significant increases in ANC coverage and declines in IMR and U5MR but only from 2009 to 2015. NMR neither increased nor declined from 2009 to 2019. Rural-urban differences were significant for ANC coverage (2009-15 only) but not for NMR, IMR and U5MR. We found that there is a need for more precise DHS and MICS estimates of urban ANC coverage and all estimates of NMR, IMR and U5MR, and that shorter recall periods provide more reliable estimates of ANC coverage in Zimbabwe. Our findings represent new interpretations and clearer insights into progress and gaps around ANC coverage and under-five mortality rates that can inform the development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policy and practice responses and further research in Zimbabwe.

Carbon footprints and health security: A comparative assessment of the Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 13 in East Asian countries.

In East Asia, where several countries are among the top emitters of carbon dioxide globally, the need to address the dual challenges of reducing carbon footprints and ensuring health security is paramount. Against this backdrop, this study used a descriptive analysis to provide a comparative assessment of the carbon footprints and the level of health security in East Asia using secondary data, sourced from the World Development Indicators. The findings from the study show that it is only North Korea that its average carbon footprint of every person is less than 2.3 tons. However, China, Japan, Mongolia and South Korea are currently lagging behind in meeting the SDG 13 target. Meanwhile, North Korea recorded the highest incidence of tuberculosis in the region. Despite the fact that South Korea and Japan were the highest emitter of CO2, the duo had the lowest under five mortality, infant mortality, incidence of TB alongside the highest life expectancies which surpassed the regional performance. In view of the above, the policymakers in Asia and the rest of the countries with health insecurity should emulate the policymakers in Japan and South Korea by making adequate investment in health, education, and standard of living of their citizens.

En Asie de l'Est, où plusieurs pays comptent parmi les plus grands émetteurs de dioxyde de carbone au monde, la nécessité de relever le double défi de réduire l'empreinte carbone et d'assurer la sécurité sanitaire est primordiale. Dans ce contexte, cette étude a utilisé une analyse descriptive pour fournir une évaluation comparative des empreintes carbone et du niveau de sécurité sanitaire en Asie de l'Est à l'aide de données secondaires provenant des indicateurs de développement mondial. Les résultats de l'étude montrent que seule la Corée du Nord a une empreinte carbone moyenne par personne inférieure à 2,3 tonnes. Cependant, la Chine, le Japon, la Mongolie et la Corée du Sud sont actuellement à la traîne dans la réalisation de l'ODD 13. Pendant ce temps, la Corée du Nord a enregistré la plus forte incidence de tuberculose dans la région. Bien que la Corée du Sud et le Japon soient les plus grands émetteurs de CO2, ces deux pays ont les taux de mortalité des moins de cinq ans, de mortalité infantile et d'incidence de tuberculose les plus faibles, ainsi que les espérances de vie les plus élevées, dépassant les performances régionales. Compte tenu de ce qui précède, les décideurs politiques d'Asie et du reste des pays souffrant d'insécurité sanitaire devraient imiter les décideurs politiques du Japon et de la Corée du Sud en investissant de manière adéquate dans la santé, l'éducation et le niveau de vie de leurs citoyens.

Impact of ignoring sampling design in the prediction of binary health outcomes through logistic regression: evidence from Malawi demographic and health survey under-five mortality data; 2000-2016.

The birth and death rates of a population are among the crucial vital statistics for socio-economic policy planning in any country. Since the under-five mortality rate is one of the indicators for monitoring the health of a population, it requires regular and accurate estimation. The national demographic and health survey data, that are readily available to the puplic, have become a means for answering most health-related questions among African populations, using relevant statistical methods. However, many of such applications tend to ignore survey design effect in the estimations, despite the availability of statistical tools that support the analyses. Little is known about the amount of inaccurate information that is generated when predicting under-five mortality rates. This study estimates and compares the bias encountered when applying unweighted and weighted logistic regression methods to predict under-five mortality rate in Malawi using nationwide survey data. The Malawi demographic and health survey data of 2004, 2010, and 2015-16 were used to determine the bias. The analyses were carried out in R software version 3.6.3 and Stata version 12.0. A logistic regression model that included various bio- and socio-demographic factors concerning the child, mother and households was used to estimate the under-five mortality rate. The results showed that accuracy of predicting the national under-five mortality rate hinges on cluster-weighting of the overall predicted probability of child-deaths, regardless of whether the model was weighted or not. Weighting the model caused small positive and negative changes in various fixed-effect estimates, which diffused the result of weighting in the fitted probabilities of deaths. In turn, there was no difference between the overall predicted mortality rate obtained using the weighted model and that obtained in the unweighted model. We recommend considering survey cluster-weights during the computation of overall predicted probability of events for a binary health outcome. This can be done without worrying about the weights during model fitting, whose aim is prediction of the population parameter.

Predictors of mortality among under-five children in rural Ethiopia: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Under-five child mortality (UFCM) is one of the major significant and sensitive indicators of the health status of the public. Although the world has seen a remarkable and substantial decrease in UFCM since 1990, its progression rate still remains alarmingly high in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, particularly in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess associations between mortality and under-five children in rural Ethiopia. METHODS: This study used a secondary data analysis of the 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) report. A total of 4,425 under-five children were included in the final analysis. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) and Cox proportional hazard (PH) model analyses were utilized to estimate survival time and investigate the major predictors of mortality in under-five children, respectively. An adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) along with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was employed to measure the association size and direction of the association (STATA 12). RESULTS: The study showed that 6.2% (95% CI: 5.43, 6.86) of children died beforehand celebrating their fifth birthday in rural Ethiopia. The multivariable Cox PH regression model analysis revealed associations of large spacing preceding birth interval (16-26 months) (AHR = 0.61; 95% CI: (0.402-0.920)), 27-38 months (AHR = 0.72; 95% CI: (0.496-1.03)), and ≥ 39 months, multiple births (AHR = 3.9; 95% CI: (2.77-5.62)), being breastfeeding (AHR = 0.13; 95% CI: (0.099-0.162)), and unvaccinated child (AHR = 11.6; 95% CI: (1.62-83.1)) were significant associations of under-five children mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the UFCM rate was present, with 6.2% in the rural areas of Ethiopia. The birth type, preceding birth interval, vaccination of the child, and breastfeeding are identified as significant associations with under-five child mortality in rural Ethiopia. Therefore, public health interventions should be given attention to multiple births, unvaccinated, and non-breastfeeding children, as well as mothers' better encouragement to have a large spacing preceding the birth interval. Moreover, investigators should conduct continuous research on UFCM, which is imperative to provide current information and inform interventions in a timely manner.

How Zambia reduced inequalities in under-five mortality rates over the last two decades: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Zambia experienced a major decline in under-five mortality rates (U5MR), with one of the fastest declines in socio-economic disparities in sub-Saharan Africa in the last two decades. We aimed to understand the extent to which, and how, Zambia has reduced socio-economic inequalities in U5MR since 2000. METHODS: Using nationally-representative data from Zambia Demographic Health Surveys (2001/2, 2007, 2013/14 and 2018), we examined trends and levels of inequalities in under-five mortality, intervention coverage, household water and sanitation, and fertility. This analysis was integrated with an in-depth review of key policy and program documents relevant to improving child survival in Zambia between 1990 and 2020. RESULTS: The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) declined from 168 to 64 deaths per 1000 live births between 2001/2 and 2018 ZDHS rounds, particularly in the post-neonatal period. There were major reductions in U5MR inequalities between wealth, education and urban-rural residence groups. Yet reduced gaps between wealth groups in estimated absolute income or education levels did not simultaneously occur. Inequalities reduced markedly for coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH), malaria and human immunodeficiency virus interventions, but less so for water or sanitation and fertility levels. Several policy and health systems drivers were identified for reducing RMNCH inequalities: policy commitment to equity in RMNCH; financing with a focus on disadvantaged groups; multisectoral partnerships and horizontal programming; expansion of infrastructure and human resources for health; and involvement of community stakeholders and service providers. CONCLUSION: Zambia's major progress in reducing inequalities in child survival between the poorest and richest people appeared to be notably driven by government policies and programs that centrally valued equity, despite ongoing gaps in absolute income and education levels. Future work should focus on sustaining these gains, while targeting families that have been left behind to achieve the sustainable development goal targets.

Socio-ecological determinants of under-five mortality in Nigeria: exploring the roles of neighbourhood poverty and use of solid cooking fuel.

Globally, despite the decline in under-five mortality rate from 213 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 132 per 1000 live births in 2018, the pace of decline has been slow, and this can be attributed to poor progress in child survival interventions, including those aimed at reducing children's exposure to household pollution. This study examined the influence of neighbourhood poverty and the use of solid cooking fuels on under-five mortality in Nigeria. Data for the study comprised a weighted sample of 124,442 birth histories of childbearing women who reported using cooking fuels in the kitchens located within their house drawn from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive and analytical analyses were carried out, including frequency tables, Pearson's chi-squared test and multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional regression model. The results showed that the risk of under-five mortality was significantly associated with mothers residing in areas of high neighbourhood poverty (HR: 1.44, CI: 1.34-1.54) and the use of solid cooking fuels within the house (HR: 2.26, CI: 2.06-2.49). Government and non-governmental organizations in Nigeria should initiate strategic support and campaigns aimed at empowering and enlightening mothers on the need to reduce their use of solid cooking fuels within the house to reduce harmful emissions and their child health consequences.

Do health expenditures affect under-five mortality and life expectancy in the ECOWAS sub-Region?

This research explored the effect of health expenditures on health outcomes in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The study employed panel data from 2001 to 2020 of all ECOWAS member States (15 countries) and tested the datasets for the presence of a unit root after the descriptive statistics analysis had been carried out. Based on the result of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method was applied. The result showed that public health expenditure was statistically significant and indirectly related to life expectancy. On the other hand, public health expenditure, private health expenditure and external health expenditure were significantly related with infant mortality. Public health expenditure was found to be directly related to infant mortality while private health and external health expenditures were negatively related. In the light of the above findings, it is recommended that policymakers in the ECOWAS region should devote a higher proportion of their annual budgets to healthcare as a strategy to improve health outcomes, reduce under-five mortality rates, and increase life expectancy in the region.

Cette recherche a exploré l'effet des dépenses de santé sur les résultats de santé dans la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO). L'étude a utilisé des données de panel de 2001 à 2020 de tous les États membres de la CEDEAO (15 pays) et a testé les ensembles de données pour la présence d'une racine unitaire après la réalisation de l'analyse statistique descriptive. Sur la base du résultat du test de stationnarité augmentée de Dickey-Fuller, la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires entièrement modifiés (FMOLS) a été appliquée. Le résultat a montré que les dépenses publiques de santé étaient statistiquement significatives et indirectement liées à l'espérance de vie. En revanche, les dépenses de santé publique, les dépenses de santé privées et les dépenses de santé externes étaient significativement liées à la mortalité infantile. Il a été constaté que les dépenses de santé publique étaient directement liées à la mortalité infantile, tandis que les dépenses de santé privées et les dépenses de santé externes étaient négativement liées. À la lumière des conclusions ci-dessus, il est recommandé que les décideurs politiques de la région de la CEDEAO consacrent une plus grande proportion de leurs budgets annuels aux soins de santé en tant que stratégie visant à améliorer les résultats sanitaires, à réduire les taux de mortalité des moins de cinq ans et à augmenter l'espérance de vie dans la région.

Nursing workforce characteristics and effect on life expectancy and under-five mortality in the ASEAN.

AIM: To assess the effects of the nursing workforce and advanced nursing practice on the outcomes of patients and life expectancy, including mortality rates of under-five children in Cambodia, and to develop policy recommendations to increase the influence of the nursing workforce. BACKGROUND: In low-middle-income nations, life expectancy and under-five mortality are important measures of public health. However, there is still a dearth of literature related to the nursing workforce in Southeast Asia. METHOD: The authors retrieved the data from the World Nursing Report produced by the World Health Organization 2020 for 10 member states. The transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis checklist has guided this study. The univariate linear regression model was applied to categorize the potential predictors for each outcome assessment. In addition, the Spearman rank correlation test was selected to assess the potential predictors, and a multivariate statistical analysis was carried out for each of the five outcomes. RESULTS: According to the study's findings, nurse density and advanced practice nursing improve both female and male life expectancy. The existence of advanced nursing roles is associated with decreased under-five mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There are great opportunities to improve the nursing workforce within Cambodia and other Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states to increase patient outcomes. Investment in nursing is essential for improved patient outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING AND HEALTH POLICY: Health policy investments in these projects and future initiatives intended to advance nurse density, education, and practice are based on this study's results. Policy initiatives should focus on increasing density because nursing appears to impact life expectancy and other outcomes.

Multilevel survival analysis of factors associated with under-five mortality in Manipur.

Background: Child mortality is a major public health issue. The studies on under-five mortality that ignore the hierarchical facts mislead the interpretation of the results due to observations in the same cluster sharing common cluster-level random effects. Objectives: The present study uses a multilevel model to analyze under-five mortality and identify the significant factors for under-five mortality in Manipur. Methods: National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21) data are used in the present study. A multilevel mixed-effect Weibull parameter survival model was fitted to determine the factors affecting under-five mortality. We construct three-level data, individual levels are nested within primary sampling units (PSUs), and PSUs are nested within districts. Results: Out of the 3225 under-five children, 85 (2.64%) died. The three-level mixed-effects Weibull parametric survival model with PSUs nested within the districts, the likelihood-ratio test with Chi-square value = 10.98 and P = 0.004 < 0.05 indicated that the model with random-intercept effects model with PSUs nested within the districts fits the data better than the fixed effect model. The four covariates, namely the number of birth in the last 5 years, age of mother at first birth, use of contraceptive, and size of child at birth, were found as the risk factor for under-five mortality at a 5% level of significance. Conclusions: In the random-intercept effect model, the two estimated variances of the random-intercept effects for district and PSU levels are 0.27 and 0.31, respectively. The values indicate variations (unobserved heterogeneities) in the risk of death of the under-five children between districts and PSUs levels.

Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis.

BACKGROUND: The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform health programming, however, to date the causes of under-five death have only been described for broad age categories such as for neonates (0-27 days), infants (0-11 months), and children age 12-59 months. METHODS: We adapt the log quadratic model to mortality patterns for children under five to all-cause child mortality and then to age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM). We apply these methods to empirical sample registration system mortality data in China from 1996 to 2015. Based on these empirical data, we simulate probabilities of mortality in the case when the true relationships between age and mortality by cause are known. RESULTS: We estimate U5ACSM within 0.1-0.7 deaths per 1000 livebirths in hold out strata for life tables constructed from the China sample registration system, representing considerable improvement compared to an error of 1.2 per 1000 livebirths using a standard approach. This improved prediction error for U5ACSM is consistently demonstrated for all-cause as well as pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality. We also consistently identified cause-specific mortality patterns in simulated mortality scenarios. CONCLUSION: The log quadratic model is a significant improvement over the standard approach for deriving U5ACSM based on both simulation and empirical results.

Analysis of risk factors associated with acute respiratory infections among under-five children in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Globally, infectious diseases are the major cause of death in children under the age of 5 years. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia account for 95% of global child mortalities every year, where acute respiratory infections (ARI) remain the leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to analyze the risk factors of ARI disease symptoms among children under the age of 5 years in Uganda. METHODS: A cross-sectional design was used to analyze 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) data collected on 13,493 children under the age of 5 years in Uganda. Various methods, such as logistic regression, elastic net logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest, were compared and used to predict 75% of the symptom outcomes of ARI disease. Well-performing methods were used to determine potential risk factors for ARI disease symptoms among children under the age of 5 years. RESULTS: In Uganda, about 40.3% of children were reported to have ARI disease symptoms in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. Children under the age of 24 months were found to have a high prevalence of ARI disease symptoms. By considering 75% of the sample, the random forest was found to be a well-performing method (accuracy = 88.7%; AUC = 0.951) compared to the logistic regression method (accuracy = 62.0%; AUC = 0.638) and other methods in predicting childhood ARI symptoms. In addition, one-year old children (OR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.12-1.44), children whose mothers were teenagers (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.06-1.53), and farm workers (1.25; 95% CI: 1.11-1.42) were most likely to have ARI disease symptoms than other categories. Furthermore, children aged 48-59 months (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.60-0.80), breastfed children (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.76-0.92), usage of charcoal in cooking (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69-0.87), and the rainy season effect (OR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.61-0.72) showed a low risk of developing ARI disease symptoms among children under the age of 5 years in Uganda. CONCLUSION: Policy-makers and health stakeholders should initiate target-oriented approaches to address the problem regarding poor children's healthcare, improper environmental conditions, and childcare facilities. For the sake of early child care, the government should promote child breastfeeding and maternal education.

Causes of deaths in neonates and children aged 1-59 months in Nigeria: verbal autopsy findings of 2019 Verbal and Social Autopsy study.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world. Identifying the causes of these deaths is crucial to inform changes in policy documents, design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these deaths. This study aimed to provide national and zonal-level estimates of the causes of under-five death in Nigeria in the 2013-2018 periods. METHODS: We conducted retrospective inquiries into the cause of deaths of 948 neonates and 2,127 children aged 1-59 months as identified in the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The verbal autopsy asked about signs and symptoms during the final illness. The Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) and Expert Algorithm Verbal Autopsy (EAVA) methods were employed to assign the immediate and underlying cause of deaths to all cases. RESULT: For the analysis, sampling weights were applied to accommodate non-proportional allocation. Boys accounted for 56 percent of neonatal deaths and 51.5 percent of the 1-59-months old deaths. About one-quarter of under-5 mortality was attributed to neonatal deaths, and 50 percent of these neonatal deaths were recorded within 48 h of delivery. Overall, 84 percent of the under-5 deaths were in the northern geopolitical zones. Based on the two methods for case analysis, neonatal infections (sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis) were responsible for 44 percent of the neonatal deaths, followed by intrapartum injury (PCVA: 21 percent vs. EAVA: 29 percent). The three main causes of death in children aged 1-59 months were malaria (PCVA: 23 percent vs. EAVA: 35 percent), diarrhoea (PCVA: 17 percent vs. EAVA: 23 percent), and pneumonia (PCVA: 10 percent vs. EAVA: 12 percent). In the North West, where the majority of under-5 (1-59 months) deaths were recorded, diarrhoea was the main cause of death (PCVA: 24.3 percent vs. EAVA: 30 percent). CONCLUSION: The causes of neonatal and children aged 1-59 months deaths vary across the northern and southern regions. By homing on the specific causes of mortality by region, the study provides crucial information that may be useful in planning appropriately tailored interventions to significantly reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria.