The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal policies are used to promote a healthier diet; however, there is still a call for real-world evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages. We aimed to evaluate the effect of an abrupt increase, of respectively 80 and 40%, in the excising Norwegian taxes on candy and beverages on volume sales of candy and soda. We expected sales to fall. METHODS: We analyzed electronic point of sale data covering approximately 98% of volume sales of grocery stores in Norway. In two pre-registered models with weekly (log-)sales of taxed candy and soda from 3884 individual stores, we modeled the difference between the jump (discontinuity) in the trend around the time of the increase in taxes and the corresponding jump in the trend in a control season from the previous years (Model 1). In addition, we modeled the difference between the intervention and the control season in their changes in average sales (Model 2). RESULTS: Model 1 showed a 6.1% (one-sided 95% CI: not applicable (NA), 23.4, p-value = 0.26) increase and a - 3.9% (95% CI: NA, 4.9, p-value = 0.23) reduction in the differences in the jump in the trends, for candy and soda, respectively. The second model showed a relative decrease of - 4.9% (95% CI: NA, 1.0, p-value = 0.08) in the average sales of candy and an increase of 1.5% (95% CI: NA, 5.0, p-value = 0.24) in sales of soda. Supplementary analyses suggested that the results were sensitive to clustering on the time dimension. CONCLUSIONS: When using two different quasi-experimental designs to model changes in volume sales of taxed candy and soda, we were not able to detect reductions in sales that coincided with an increase in the taxes. Variation across time makes it difficult to detect potentially small changes in sales even when using an entire country's worth of sales data on the level of individual stores. We speculate that the tax increases were too modest to affect the prices to alter sales sufficiently.

Public Meets Private: Conversations Between Coca-Cola and the CDC.

Policy Points There is growing understanding of how manufacturers of harmful products influence health policy. The strategies, approaches, and influences from such manufacturers that are detrimental to health have been termed the "corporate" or "commercial" determinants of health. However, while partnerships with the tobacco industry are clearly unacceptable for public health organizations, ties to other industries continue to be pursued. Such partnerships may influence health organizations in a number of ways detrimental to population health. However, with the exception of tobacco industry tactics as revealed by internal documents, we know relatively little about how this influence operates. This article uses emails between the Coca-Cola Company and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which we obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, to explore the nature of corporate influence, conflicts of interest, and lobbying "in their own words," and highlights the need for greater transparency and clearer policies on engaging with such industries. CONTEXT: There is a continuing debate about the appropriateness of contacts between manufacturers of some harmful products and health researchers, as well as practitioners and policymakers. Some argue that such contacts may be a means of exerting undue influence, while others present them as an opportunity to pursue shared health goals. This article examines interactions between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Coca-Cola Company (Coca-Cola) as revealed by communications obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. METHODS: We sent 10 US FOIA requests in 2016/2017 for communications between employees at the CDC and Coca-Cola. We then performed a thematic content analysis of the documents provided. FINDINGS: Of our 10 FOIA requests, 3 requests are still pending (at the time of this publication); 5 were rejected as too broad or because no records were found; and 3 returned 295 pages from 86 emails. The CDC withheld 102 pages to "protect commercial or financial information which is privileged or confidential." The returned emails demonstrate three main themes in Coca-Cola's contact with CDC employees: to gain and expand access, to lobby, and to shift attention and blame away from sugar-sweetened beverages. CONCLUSIONS: The emails we obtained using FOIA requests reveal efforts by Coca-Cola to lobby the CDC to advance corporate objectives rather than health, including to influence the World Health Organization. Our findings provide a rare example of the ways in which corporate interests attempt to influence public health practitioners "in their own words," and they demonstrate a need for clearer policies on avoiding partnerships with manufacturers of harmful products.

A discourse network analysis of UK newspaper coverage of the "sugar tax" debate before and after the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy.

BACKGROUND: On 6th April 2018, the UK Government introduced the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) as a mechanism designed to address increasing prevalence of obesity and associated ill health by reducing sugar consumption. Given that the successful introduction of upstream food and nutrition policies is a highly political enterprise involving multiple interested parties, understanding the complex network of stakeholders seeking to influence such policy decisions is imperative. METHODS: Media content analysis was used to build a dataset of relevant newspaper articles, which were analysed to identify stakeholder agreement or disagreement with defined concept statements. We used discourse network analysis to produce visual representations of the network of stakeholders and coalitions evident in the debate as it was presented in UK newspapers, in the lead up to and following the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy in the UK, from May 2015 to November 2016. RESULTS: Coding identified 3883 statements made by 214 individuals from 176 organisations, relating to 47 concepts. Network visualisations revealed a complex network of stakeholders with clear sceptical and supportive coalitions. Industry stakeholders appeared less united in the network than anticipated, particularly before the SDIL announcement. Some key industry actors appeared in the supportive coalition, possibly due to the use of corporate social responsibility rhetoric. Jamie Oliver appeared as a dominant stakeholder, firmly embedded with public health advocates. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the complexity of the network of stakeholders involved in the public debate on food policies such as sugar tax and the SDIL. Polarisation of stakeholders arose from differences in ideology, focus on a specific policy and statements about the weight of evidence. Vocal celebrity policy entrepreneurs may be instrumental in gaining public and policy makers' support for future upstream regulation to promote population health, to facilitate alignment around a clear ideology.

The impact of a sugar-sweetened beverages tax on oral health and costs of dental care in Australia.

Background: Despite a clear causal link between frequent consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and dental disease, little is known about the implications of a tax on SSBs in the context of oral health. The aim of our study was to estimate the impacts of a SSB tax on the Australian population in the context of oral health outcomes, dental care utilisation and associated costs. Methods: We designed a cohort model that accounted for the consequences of the tax through the mechanisms of consumer response to price increase, the effect on oral health due to change in sugar intake, and the implications for dental care use. Results: Our results indicate that in the adult population an ad valorem tax of 20% would lead to a reduction in decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) by 3.9 million units over 10 years, resulting in cost savings of A$666 million. Scenario analyses show that the outcomes are sensitive to the choice of the time horizon, tax rate, price elasticity of demand for SSBs, and the definition of target population. Conclusion: We found that the total and per-person consequences of SSB tax were considerable, both in terms of dental caries (tooth decay) averted and dental care avoided. These results have to be compounded with the implications of SSB tax for other aspects of health and health care, especially in the context of chronic diseases. On the other hand, the improved outcomes have to be weighted against a welfare loss associated with introducing a tax.

Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: An industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities. DESIGN: We modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under 'soft' Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under 'hard' Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021. SETTING: England. SUBJECTS: Adults aged 25 years or older. RESULTS: The SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under 'hard' Brexit. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under 'hard' Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.

Identifying Financially Sustainable Pricing Interventions to Promote Healthier Beverage Purchases in Small Neighborhood Stores.

INTRODUCTION: Residents of low-income communities often purchase sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) at small, neighborhood "corner" stores. Lowering water prices and increasing SSB prices are potentially complementary public health strategies to promote more healthful beverage purchasing patterns in these stores. Sustainability, however, depends on financial feasibility. Because in-store pricing experiments are complex and require retailers to take business risks, we used a simulation approach to identify profitable pricing combinations for corner stores. METHODS: The analytic approach was based on inventory models, which are suitable for modeling business operations. We used discrete-event simulation to build inventory models that use data representing beverage inventory, wholesale costs, changes in retail prices, and consumer demand for 2 corner stores in Baltimore, Maryland. Model outputs yielded ranges for water and SSB prices that increased water demand without loss of profit from combined water and SSB sales. RESULTS: A 20% SSB price increase allowed lowering water prices by up to 20% while maintaining profit and increased water demand by 9% and 14%, for stores selling SSBs in 12-oz cans and 16- to 20-oz bottles, respectively. Without changing water prices, profits could increase by 4% and 6%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that stores with a higher volume of SSB sales could reduce water prices the most without loss of profit. CONCLUSION: Various combinations of SSB and water prices could encourage water consumption while maintaining or increasing store owners' profits. This model is a first step in designing and implementing profitable pricing strategies in collaboration with store owners.

A Case Study of the Philadelphia Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policymaking Process: Implications for Policy Development and Advocacy.

CONTEXT: Policymakers are increasingly proposing sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as an evidence-based strategy to reduce chronic disease risk; and local health departments (LHDs) are well-positioned to play a role in SSB policy development and advocacy. However, most SSB tax proposals fail to become law and limited empiric guidance exists to inform advocacy efforts. In June 2016, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, passed an SSB tax. OBJECTIVE: To identify features of the Philadelphia SSB tax policymaking process that contributed to the proposal's passage. DESIGN: Qualitative case study. Semistructured interviews were conducted with key informants closely involved with the policymaking process. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed. Local news media about the SSB tax proposal were analyzed to triangulate interview findings. Analysis was conducted in NVivo 10 using inductive qualitative content analysis. SETTING: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the SSB tax policymaking in process. PARTICIPANTS: Nine key informants (2 city councilpersons, 4 city agency officials, 1 community-based advocate, 1 news reporter, and 1 researcher). RESULTS: The Philadelphia SSB tax proposal was introduced with the explicit goal of financing universal prekindergarten and deliberately not framed as a health intervention. This framing shifted contentious debates about government involvement in individual behavior toward discussions about how to finance universal prekindergarten, a goal for which broad support existed. The LHD played an important role in communicating research evidence about potential health benefits of the SSB tax proposal at the end of the policymaking process. CONCLUSIONS: During local SSB tax policy development processes, LHD officials and other advocates should encourage policymakers to design SSB tax policies so that revenue is directed toward community investments for which broad public support exists. When communicating with policymakers and the public, LHDs should consider emphasizing how SSB tax revenue will be used in addition to presenting evidence about the potential health benefits of the SSB tax at the local level.

Economics and obesity policy.

This paper elucidates the challenges surrounding the economics of some popular obesity-related policy proposals. Solid economic justifications for anti-obesity policies are often lacking, and evidence suggests policies like fat and soda taxes or restrictions on food stamp spending are unlikely to substantively affect obesity prevalence. In short, many of the same factors that make obesity such a complicated and multifaceted issue extend to the economic analysis of public health policies.

Cost-effectiveness of population-based, community, workplace and individual policies for diabetes prevention in the UK.

AIM: To analyse the cost-effectiveness of different interventions for Type 2 diabetes prevention within a common framework. METHODS: A micro-simulation model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of diabetes prevention interventions including: (1) soft drinks taxation; (2) retail policy in socially deprived areas; (3) workplace intervention; (4) community-based intervention; and (5) screening and intensive lifestyle intervention in individuals with high diabetes risk. Within the model, individuals follow metabolic trajectories (for BMI, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and glycaemia); individuals may develop diabetes, and some may exhibit complications of diabetes and related disorders, including cardiovascular disease, and eventually die. Lifetime healthcare costs, employment costs and quality-adjusted life-years are collected for each person. RESULTS: All interventions generate more life-years and lifetime quality-adjusted life-years and reduce healthcare spending compared with doing nothing. Screening and intensive lifestyle intervention generates greatest lifetime net benefit (£37) but is costly to implement. In comparison, soft drinks taxation or retail policy generate lower net benefit (£11 and £11) but are cost-saving in a shorter time period, preferentially benefit individuals from deprived backgrounds and reduce employer costs. CONCLUSION: The model enables a wide range of diabetes prevention interventions to be evaluated according to cost-effectiveness, employment and equity impacts over the short and long term, allowing decision-makers to prioritize policies that maximize the expected benefits, as well as fulfilling other policy targets, such as addressing social inequalities.

Factors associated with high consumption of soft drinks among Australian secondary-school students.

OBJECTIVE: To examine demographic and behavioural correlates of high consumption of soft drinks (non-alcoholic sugar-sweetened carbonated drinks excluding energy drinks) among Australian adolescents and to explore the associations between high consumption and soft drink perceptions and accessibility. DESIGN: Cross-sectional self-completion survey and height and weight measurements. SETTING: Australian secondary schools. SUBJECTS: Students aged 12-17 years participating in the 2012-13 National Secondary Students' Diet and Activity (NaSSDA) survey (n 7835). RESULTS: Overall, 14 % of students reported consuming four or more cups (≥1 litres) of soft drinks each week ('high soft drink consumers'). Demographic factors associated with high soft drink consumption were being male and having at least $AU 40 in weekly spending money. Behavioural factors associated with high soft drink consumption were low fruit intake, consuming energy drinks on a weekly basis, eating fast foods at least once weekly, eating snack foods ≥14 times/week, watching television for >2 h/d and sleeping for <8 h/school night. Students who perceived soft drinks to be usually available in their home, convenient to buy and good value for money were more likely to be high soft drink consumers, as were students who reported usually buying these drinks when making a beverage purchase from the school canteen/vending machine. CONCLUSIONS: High soft drink consumption clusters with other unhealthy lifestyle behaviours among Australian secondary-school students. Interventions focused on reducing the availability of soft drinks (e.g. increased taxes, restricting their sale in schools) as well as improved education on their harms are needed to lower adolescents' soft drink intake.

Price elasticity of the demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and energy dense food in Chile.

BACKGROUND: Chile is the second world's largest per capita consumer of caloric beverages. Caloric beverages are associated with overweight, obesity and other chronic diseases. The objective of this study is to estimate the price elasticity of demand for soft drinks, other sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy dense foods in urban areas in Chile in order to evaluate the potential response of households' consumption to changes in prices. METHODS: We used microdata from the VII Family Budget Survey 2012-2013, which collects information on expenditures made by Chilean urban households on items such as beverages and foods. We estimated a Linear Approximation of an Almost Ideal Demand System Model to derive own and cross price elasticities of milk, coffee, tea and other infusions, plain water, soft drinks, other flavored beverages, sweet snacks, sugar and honey, and desserts. We considered the censored nature of the data and included the Inverse Mills Ratio in each equation of the demand system. We estimated a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and a two-part model as sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: We found an own price-elasticity of -1.37 for soft drinks. This implies that a price increase of 10% is associated with a reduction in consumption of 13.7%. We found that the rest of food and beverages included in the demand system behave as substitutes for soft drinks. For instance, plain water showed a cross-price elasticity of 0.63: a 10% increase in price of soft drinks could lead to an increase of 6.3% of plain water. Own and cross price elasticities were similar between models. CONCLUSIONS: The demand of soft drinks is price sensitive among Chilean households. An incentive system such as subsidies to non-sweetened beverages and tax to soft drinks could lead to increases in the substitutions for other healthier beverages.

First-Year Evaluation of Mexico's Tax on Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: In an effort to prevent continued increases in obesity and diabetes, in January 2014, the Mexican government implemented an 8% tax on nonessential foods with energy density ≥275 kcal/100 g and a peso-per-liter tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Limited rigorous evaluations of food taxes exist worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine changes in volume of taxed and untaxed packaged food purchases in response to these taxes in the entire sample and stratified by socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study uses data on household packaged food purchases representative of the Mexican urban population from The Nielsen Company's Mexico Consumer Panel Services (CPS). We included 6,248 households that participated in the Nielsen CPS in at least 2 mo during 2012-2014; average household follow-up was 32.7 mo. We analyzed the volume of purchases of taxed and untaxed foods from January 2012 to December 2014, using a longitudinal, fixed-effects model that adjusted for preexisting trends to test whether the observed post-tax trend was significantly different from the one expected based on the pre-tax trend. We controlled for household characteristics and contextual factors like minimum salary and unemployment rate. The mean volume of purchases of taxed foods in 2014 changed by -25 g (95% confidence interval = -46, -11) per capita per month, or a 5.1% change beyond what would have been expected based on pre-tax (2012-2013) trends, with no corresponding change in purchases of untaxed foods. Low SES households purchased on average 10.2% less taxed foods than expected (-44 [-72, -16] g per capita per month); medium SES households purchased 5.8% less taxed foods than expected (-28 [-46, -11] g per capita per month), whereas high SES households' purchases did not change. The main limitations of our findings are the inability to infer causality because the taxes were implemented at the national level (lack of control group), our sample is only representative of urban areas, we only have 2 y of data prior to the tax, and, as with any consumer panel survey, we did not capture all foods purchased by the household. CONCLUSIONS: Household purchases of nonessential energy-dense foods declined in the first year after the implementation of Mexico's SSB and nonessential foods taxes. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the taxes on overall energy intake, dietary quality, and food purchase patterns (see S1 Abstract in Spanish).

Effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and taxes on young people's predicted sugar-sweetened beverage preferences: an experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with increased risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and dental caries. Our aim was to assess the effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and a 20 % tax on predicted SSB preferences, beliefs and purchase probabilities amongst young people. METHODS: A 2 × 3 × 2 between-group experimental study was conducted over a one-week period in August 2014. Intervention scenarios were delivered, and outcome data collected, via an anonymous online survey. Participants were 604 New Zealand young people aged 13-24 years who consumed soft drinks regularly. Participants were randomly allocated using a computer-generated algorithm to view one of 12 experimental conditions, specifically images of branded versus plain packaged SSBs, with either no warning, a text warning, or a graphic warning, and with or without a 20 % tax. Participant perceptions of the allocated SSB product and of those who might consume the product were measured using seven-point Likert scales. Purchase probabilities were measured using 11-point Juster scales. RESULTS: Six hundred and four young people completed the survey (51 % female, mean age 18 (SD 3.4) years). All three intervention scenarios had a significant negative effect on preferences for SSBs (plain packaging: F (6, 587) = 54.4, p <0.001; warning label: F (6, 588) = 19.8, p <0.001; 20 % tax: F (6, 587) = 11.3, p <0.001). Plain packaging and warning labels also had a significant negative impact on reported likelihood of purchasing SSB's (p = <0.001). A 20 % tax reduced participants' purchase probability but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Plain packaging and warning labels significantly reduce young people's predicted preferences for, and reported probability of purchasing, SSBs.

Food systems transformations, ultra-processed food markets and the nutrition transition in Asia.

BACKGROUND: Attracted by their high economic growth rates, young and growing populations, and increasingly open markets, transnational food and beverage corporations (TFBCs) are targeting Asian markets with vigour. Simultaneously the consumption of ultra-processed foods high in fat, salt and glycaemic load is increasing in the region. Evidence demonstrates that TFBCs can leverage their market power to shape food systems in ways that alter the availability, price, nutritional quality, desirability and ultimately consumption of such foods. This paper describes recent changes in Asian food systems driven by TFBCs in the retail, manufacturing and food service sectors and considers the implications for population nutrition. METHOD: Market data for each sector was sourced from Euromonitor International for four lower-middle income, three upper-middle income and five high-income Asian countries. Descriptive statistics were used to describe trends in ultra-processed food consumption (2000-2013), packaged food retail distribution channels (1999-2013), 'market transnationalization' defined as the market share held by TFBCs relative to domestic firms (2004-2013), and 'market concentration' defined as the market share and thus market power held by the four leading firms (2004-2013) in each market. RESULTS: Ultra-processed food sales has increased rapidly in most middle-income countries. Carbonated soft drinks was the leading product category, in which Coca-Cola and PepsiCo had a regional oligopoly. Supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores were becoming increasingly dominant as distribution channels for packaged foods throughout the region. Market concentration was increasing in the grocery retail sector in all countries. Food service sales are increasing in all countries led by McDonalds and Yum! Brands. However, in all three sectors TFBCs face strong competition from Asian firms. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the findings suggest that market forces are likely to be significant but variable drivers of Asia's nutrition transition. The carbonated soft drink market is the most highly concentrated and likely to be most harmful to population nutrition. The grocery retail sector is, in terms of increasing market concentration and thus market power, likely to be the most important driver of ongoing food systems change and ultra-processed food sales in the region. Given it's rapid growth, the food service sector will also contribute significantly to ongoing dietary change.

Trade and investment liberalization, food systems change and highly processed food consumption: a natural experiment contrasting the soft-drink markets of Peru and Bolivia.

BACKGROUND: Free trade agreements (FTAs) can affect food environments and non-communicable disease risks through altering the availability of highly-processed foods. Few studies have quantified such effects. Using a natural experiment this paper quantifies changes in Peru's soft-drink market before/after entry into the US-Peru FTA, compared with Bolivia, a county with no such agreement. METHODS: Difference-in-difference models were used to test for between country differences in the rate of per capita foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, soft-drink imports, the volumes of various soft-drinks sold, and the volumes of sugar from soft-drinks before/after FTA ratification (2006) and enforcement (2009). RESULTS: In Peru average per capita FDI-inflows rose from US$103.11 in the pre-ratification period to US$269.79 post-ratification, with little change in Bolivia. This corresponded with a 122 % increase in Peruvian soft-drink production. There was a significant between-country difference in FDI-inflows pre-/post-ratification (DID:1.07, 95 % CI:0.19-1.96; p = 0.01). Despite little difference in total per capita soft-drink sales volumes there was a significant between-country difference in per capita sugar from soft-drinks pre-/post enforcement (DID:-0.99, 95 % CI: -1.91-0.06; p = 0.03) with stagnated growth in Peru and continued growth in Bolivia. This resulted from stagnated sugar sweetened carbonates growth and increased bottled water, juice and sports & energy drinks growth in Peru, with continued carbonates growth in Bolivia. There was a significant between-country difference in per capita carbonates (DID: -1.44, 95 % CI: -2.52-0.36, p = 0.01) and bottled water (DID:0.63; 95 % CI: -0.01-1.26; p = 0.04) sales volumes. CONCLUSIONS: The FTA may have resulted in increased FDI-inflows and soft-drink production and also contributed to the diversification of soft drinks produced and sold in Peru with some positive (stagnated carbonates and increased bottled water) and some negative (increased juice and sports & energy drinks) implications for nutrition. These changes were not evident in Bolivia. These results should be interpreted cautiously given the study design limitations.

Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures. DESIGN: A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values. SETTING: Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption. RESULTS: A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption. CONCLUSIONS: In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases.

Neighbourhood variation in the price of soda relative to milk and its association with neighbourhood socio-economic status and race.

OBJECTIVE: Soda consumption is high in the USA, especially among minorities and individuals of lower socio-economic status (SES); this may be due to its affordable price in relation to healthier alternatives. The objective of the present study was to examine geospatial variation in price of milk and soda, and the price of milk relative to soda, by neighbourhood SES and proportion of Hispanic and black individuals. DESIGN: Retailer soda and milk prices (n 2987; Information Resources, Inc. Academic Data Set 2004-2011) were linked to census block group sociodemographic characteristics (American Community Survey 2005-2009). Linear hierarchical regression models were used to adjust for confounders. SETTING: Large chain supermarkets and superstores (n 1743) in forty-one states and 1694 block groups (USA). RESULTS: For equivalent fluid ounces, price of soda on average was 62 % lower than milk ($US 0·23 v. $US 0·63 per serving) and there was high dispersion in milk price across geographic areas. After adjustment for confounding, neighbourhoods with a higher concentration of black and Hispanic individuals tended to have lower soda prices and higher milk prices (-$US 0·001 and +$US 0·007 in price per serving, respectively, for a one quintile increase in black/Hispanic population), while soda and milk both became less expensive as SES decreased (-$US 0·002 and -$US 0·015 in serving price per one sd decrease in SES index, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Neighbourhoods with a higher concentration of blacks and Hispanics may be at greater risk of higher soda consumption due to more affordable prices, in absolute terms and relative to the price of milk.

An evaluation of the impact of a restrictive retail food environment intervention in a rural community pharmacy setting.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption is associated with morbidity and mortality. The retail food environment influences food and beverage purchasing and consumption. This study assesses the impact of a community pharmacy's removal of sweet beverages on overall community sales of carbonated soft drinks (CSD) in a rural setting. We also examined whether the pharmacy intervention affected CSD sales in the town's other food stores. METHODS: Weekly CSD sales data were acquired from the three food retailers in the town of Baddeck, Nova Scotia (January 1, 2013 to May 8, 2015, n = 123 weeks). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analysis was used to analyse the interrupted time series data and estimate the impact of the pharmacy intervention (September 11, 2014) on overall CSD sales at the community level. Data were analysed in 2015. RESULTS: Before the intervention, the pharmacy accounted for approximately 6 % of CSD sales in the community. After the intervention, declines in total weekly average community CSD sales were not statistically significantly. CSD sales at the other food stores did not increase after the pharmacy intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study was among the first to examine the impact of a restrictive retail food environment intervention, and found a non-significant decline in CSD sales at the community level. It is the first study to examine a retail food environment intervention in a community pharmacy. Pharmacies may have an important role to play in creating healthy retail food environments.

Advocating for Soda Taxes: How Oral Health Professionals Fit In.

Our recent analysis of how soda tax debates appear in the news revealed that oral health professionals seldom appear. By elevating their expert voices, oral health practitioners can contribute new and salient arguments for soda taxes to the public discourse and help advance public policy that improves oral health outcomes. We propose media advocacy strategies that oral health professionals can use to increase their visibility in the news to make the case for soda taxes.