Network of large pedigrees reveals social practices of Avar communities.

From AD 567-568, at the onset of the Avar period, populations from the Eurasian Steppe settled in the Carpathian Basin for approximately 250 years1. Extensive sampling for archaeogenomics (424 individuals) and isotopes, combined with archaeological, anthropological and historical contextualization of four Avar-period cemeteries, allowed for a detailed description of the genomic structure of these communities and their kinship and social practices. We present a set of large pedigrees, reconstructed using ancient DNA, spanning nine generations and comprising around 300 individuals. We uncover a strict patrilineal kinship system, in which patrilocality and female exogamy were the norm and multiple reproductive partnering and levirate unions were common. The absence of consanguinity indicates that this society maintained a detailed memory of ancestry over generations. These kinship practices correspond with previous evidence from historical sources and anthropological research on Eurasian Steppe societies2. Network analyses of identity-by-descent DNA connections suggest that social cohesion between communities was maintained via female exogamy. Finally, despite the absence of major ancestry shifts, the level of resolution of our analyses allowed us to detect genetic discontinuity caused by the replacement of a community at one of the sites. This was paralleled with changes in the archaeological record and was probably a result of local political realignment.

Digital measurement of SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk from 7 million contacts.

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.

The person-to-person transmission landscape of the gut and oral microbiomes.

The human microbiome is an integral component of the human body and a co-determinant of several health conditions1,2. However, the extent to which interpersonal relations shape the individual genetic makeup of the microbiome and its transmission within and across populations remains largely unknown3,4. Here, capitalizing on more than 9,700 human metagenomes and computational strain-level profiling, we detected extensive bacterial strain sharing across individuals (more than 10 million instances) with distinct mother-to-infant, intra-household and intra-population transmission patterns. Mother-to-infant gut microbiome transmission was considerable and stable during infancy (around 50% of the same strains among shared species (strain-sharing rate)) and remained detectable at older ages. By contrast, the transmission of the oral microbiome occurred largely horizontally and was enhanced by the duration of cohabitation. There was substantial strain sharing among cohabiting individuals, with 12% and 32% median strain-sharing rates for the gut and oral microbiomes, and time since cohabitation affected strain sharing more than age or genetics did. Bacterial strain sharing additionally recapitulated host population structures better than species-level profiles did. Finally, distinct taxa appeared as efficient spreaders across transmission modes and were associated with different predicted bacterial phenotypes linked with out-of-host survival capabilities. The extent of microorganism transmission that we describe underscores its relevance in human microbiome studies5, especially those on non-infectious, microbiome-associated diseases.

Tackling psychosocial and capital constraints to alleviate poverty.

Many policies attempt to help extremely poor households build sustainable sources of income. Although economic interventions have predominated historically1,2, psychosocial support has attracted substantial interest3-5, particularly for its potential cost-effectiveness. Recent evidence has shown that multi-faceted 'graduation' programmes can succeed in generating sustained changes6,7. Here we show that a multi-faceted intervention can open pathways out of extreme poverty by relaxing capital and psychosocial constraints. We conducted a four-arm randomized evaluation among extremely poor female beneficiaries already enrolled in a national cash transfer government programme in Niger. The three treatment arms included group savings promotion, coaching and entrepreneurship training, and then added either a lump-sum cash grant, psychosocial interventions, or both the cash grant and psychosocial interventions. All three arms generated positive effects on economic outcomes and psychosocial well-being, but there were notable differences in the pathways and the timing of effects. Overall, the arms with psychosocial interventions were the most cost-effective, highlighting the value of including well-designed psychosocial components in government-led multi-faceted interventions for the extreme poor.

Commercially traded fish portfolios mask household utilization of biodiversity in wild food systems.

The global biodiversity that underpins wild food systems-including fisheries-is rapidly declining. Yet, we often have only a limited understanding of how households use and benefit from biodiversity in the ecosystems surrounding them. Explicating these relationships is critical to forestall and mitigate the effects of biodiversity declines on food and nutrition security. Here, we quantify how biodiversity filters from ecosystems to household harvest, consumption, and sale, and how ecological traits and household characteristics shape these relationships. We used a unique, integrated ecological (40 sites, quarterly data collection) and household survey (n = 414, every 2 mo data collection) dataset collected over 3 y in rice field fisheries surrounding Cambodia's Tonlé Sap, one of Earth's most productive and diverse freshwater systems. While ecosystem biodiversity was positively associated with household catch, consumption, and sold biodiversity, households consumed an average of 43% of the species present in the ecosystem and sold only 9%. Larger, less nutritious, and more common species were disproportionally represented in portfolios of commercially traded species, while consumed species mirrored catches. The relationship between ecosystem and consumed biodiversity was remarkably consistent across variation in household fishing effort, demographics, and distance to nearest markets. Poorer households also consumed more species, underscoring how wild food systems may most benefit the vulnerable. Our findings amplify concerns about the impacts of biodiversity loss on our global food systems and highlight that utilization of biodiversity for consumption may far exceed what is commercially traded.

Higher total energy costs strain the elderly, especially low-income, across 31 developed countries.

Addressing the total energy cost burden of elderly people is essential for designing equitable and effective energy policies, especially in responding to energy crisis in an aging society. It is due to the double impact of energy price hikes on households-through direct impact on fuel bills and indirect impact on the prices of goods and services consumed. However, while examining the household energy cost burden of the elderly, their indirect energy consumption and associated cost burden remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and compares the direct and indirect energy footprints and associated total energy cost burdens for different age groups across 31 developed countries. It reveals that the elderly have larger per capita energy footprints, resulting from higher levels of both direct and indirect energy consumption compared with the younger age groups. More importantly, the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, have a higher total energy cost burden rate. As the share of elderly in the total population rapidly grows in these countries, the larger per capita energy footprint and associated cost burden rate of elderly people would make these aging countries more vulnerable in times of energy crises. It is therefore crucial to develop policies that aim to reduce energy consumption and costs, improve energy efficiency, and support low-income elderly populations. Such policies are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of these aging countries to the energy crisis.

How poverty is measured impacts who gets classified as impoverished.

We test whether the classification of households into poverty categories is meaningfully influenced by the poverty measurement approach that is employed. These classification techniques are widely used by governments, non-profit organizations, and development agencies for policy design and implementation. Using primary data collected in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Uganda, we find almost no agreement in how four commonly used approaches rank 16,150 households in terms of poverty status. This result holds for each country, for urban and rural households, and across the entire socio-economic distribution. Households' poverty rankings differ by an entire quartile on average. Conclusions about progress toward poverty alleviation goals may depend in large part on how poverty is measured.

Family ideals in an era of low fertility.

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Single-Dose Rifapentine in Household Contacts of Patients with Leprosy.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that a single dose of rifampin has protective effects against leprosy in close contacts of patients with the disease. Rifapentine was shown to have greater bactericidal activity against Mycobacterium leprae than rifampin in murine models of leprosy, but data regarding its effectiveness in preventing leprosy are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized, controlled trial to investigate whether single-dose rifapentine is effective in preventing leprosy in household contacts of patients with leprosy. The clusters (counties or districts in Southwest China) were assigned to one of three trial groups: single-dose rifapentine, single-dose rifampin, or control (no intervention). The primary outcome was the 4-year cumulative incidence of leprosy among household contacts. RESULTS: A total of 207 clusters comprising 7450 household contacts underwent randomization; 68 clusters (2331 household contacts) were assigned to the rifapentine group, 71 (2760) to the rifampin group, and 68 (2359) to the control group. A total of 24 new cases of leprosy occurred over the 4-year follow-up, for a cumulative incidence of 0.09% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02 to 0.34) with rifapentine (2 cases), 0.33% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.63) with rifampin (9 cases), and 0.55% (95% CI, 0.32 to 0.95) with no intervention (13 cases). In an intention-to-treat analysis, the cumulative incidence in the rifapentine group was 84% lower than that in the control group (cumulative incidence ratio, 0.16; multiplicity-adjusted 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.87; P = 0.02); the cumulative incidence did not differ significantly between the rifampin group and the control group (cumulative incidence ratio, 0.59; multiplicity-adjusted 95% CI, 0.22 to 1.57; P = 0.23). In a per-protocol analysis, the cumulative incidence was 0.05% with rifapentine, 0.19% with rifampin, and 0.63% with no intervention. No severe adverse events were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of leprosy among household contacts over 4 years was lower with single-dose rifapentine than with no intervention. (Funded by the Ministry of Health of China and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Chinese Clinical Trial Registry number, ChiCTR-IPR-15007075.).

Large-scale land acquisitions exacerbate local farmland inequalities in Tanzania.

Land inequality stalls economic development, entrenches poverty, and is associated with environmental degradation. Yet, rigorous assessments of land-use interventions attend to inequality only rarely. A land inequality lens is especially important to understand how recent large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) affect smallholder and indigenous communities across as much as 100 million hectares around the world. This paper studies inequalities in land assets, specifically landholdings and farm size, to derive insights into the distributional outcomes of LSLAs. Using a household survey covering four pairs of land acquisition and control sites in Tanzania, we use a quasi-experimental design to characterize changes in land inequality and subsequent impacts on well-being. We find convincing evidence that LSLAs in Tanzania lead to both reduced landholdings and greater farmland inequality among smallholders. Households in proximity to LSLAs are associated with 21.1% (P = 0.02) smaller landholdings while evidence, although insignificant, is suggestive that farm sizes are also declining. Aggregate estimates, however, hide that households in the bottom quartiles of farm size suffer the brunt of landlessness and land loss induced by LSLAs that combine to generate greater farmland inequality. Additional analyses find that land inequality is not offset by improvements in other livelihood dimensions, rather farm size decreases among households near LSLAs are associated with no income improvements, lower wealth, increased poverty, and higher food insecurity. The results demonstrate that without explicit consideration of distributional outcomes, land-use policies can systematically reinforce existing inequalities.

A comprehensive demographic profile of the US evicted population.

Millions of American renter households every year are threatened with eviction, an event associated with severe negative impacts on health and economic well-being. Yet we know little about the characteristics of individuals living in these households. Here, we link 38 million eviction court cases to US Census Bureau data to show that 7.6 million people, including 2.9 million children, faced the threat of eviction each year between 2007 and 2016. Overall, adult renters living with at least one child in their home were threatened with eviction at an annual rate of 10.4%, twice that of adults without children (5.0%). We demonstrate not only that the average evicted household includes one child, but that the most common age to experience eviction in America is during childhood. We also find that previous studies have underestimated racial disparities in eviction risk: Despite making up only 18.6% of all renters, Black Americans account for 51.1% of those affected by eviction filings and 43.4% of those evicted. Roughly one in five Black Americans living in a renter household is threatened with eviction annually, while one in ten is evicted. Black-White disparities persist across levels of income and vary by state. In providing the most comprehensive description to date of the population of US renters facing eviction, our study reveals a significant undercount of individuals impacted by eviction and motivates policies designed to stabilize housing for children and families.

Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks.

Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Empirical evidence on individual adaptation to climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing the rational optimizer by realistic human behavior in nature-society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household adaptation behavior to floods, leveraging on behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA. We find that a representative rational agent significantly overestimates household adaptation diffusion and underestimates damages compared to boundedly rational behavior revealed from our survey. This "adaptation deficit" exhibited by a population of empirically informed agents is explained primarily by diverse "soft" adaptation constraints-awareness, social influences-rather than heterogeneity in financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, our findings suggest that even under a nearly complete adaptation diffusion, adaptation benefits are uneven, with late or less-efficient actions locking households to a path of higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling reveals that behavioral assumptions shape the uncertainty of physical factors, like exposure and objective effectiveness of flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial in risk assessments. This unique combination of methods facilitates the assessment of cumulative and distributional effects of boundedly rational behavior essential for designing tailored climate adaptation policies, and for equitable sustainability transitions in general.

Distribution of capitalized benefits from land conservation.

Land conservation efforts throughout the United States sustain ecological benefits while generating wealth in the housing market through capitalization of amenities. This paper estimates the benefits of conservation that are capitalized into proximate home values and quantifies how those benefits are distributed across demographic groups. Using detailed property and household-level data from Massachusetts, we estimate that new land conservation led to $62 million in new housing wealth equity. However, houses owned by low-income or Black or Hispanic households are less likely to be located near protected areas, and hence, these populations are less likely to benefit financially. Direct study of the distribution of this new wealth from capitalized conservation is highly unequal, with the richest quartile of households receiving 43%, White households receiving 91%, and the richest White households receiving 40%, which is nearly 140% more than would be expected under equal distribution. We extend our analysis using census data for the entire United States and observe parallel patterns. We estimate that recent land conservation generated $9.8 billion in wealth through the housing market and that wealthier and White households benefited disproportionately. These findings suggest regressive and racially disparate incidence of the wealth benefits of land conservation policy.

Lifetime years married held steady for men with a BA degree since 1960 but dropped to lowest level since 1880 for men without a BA.

Trends in life expectancy and marriage patterns work together to determine expected lifetime years married. In 1880, adult life expectancy was short and marriages were more likely to end by death than divorce. Since then, although there have been substantial life expectancy gains in adulthood, marriage has been increasingly delayed or forgone and cohabitation and divorce are far more prevalent. Whether adults today can expect to spend more or fewer years married than in the past depends on the relative magnitude of changes in mortality and marriage. We estimate trends in men's expected lifetime years married (and in other marital statuses) from 1880 to 2019 and by bachelor's degree (BA) status from 1960 to 2019. Our results show a rise in men's expected lifetime years married between 1880 and the Baby Boom era and a subsequent fall. There are large and growing differences by BA status. Men with a BA have had high and relatively stable expected lifetime years married since 1960. For men without a BA, expected lifetime years married has plummeted to lows not seen among men since 1880. Cohabitation accounts for a substantial fraction, although not all, of these declines. Our results demonstrate how increasing inequality in both life expectancy and marriage patterns combine to amplify educational differences in lifetime experiences of coresidential partnerships.

US and Chinese preschoolers normalize household labor inequality.

Across many cultural contexts, the majority of women conduct the majority of their household labor. This gendered distribution of labor is often unequal, and thus represents one of the most frequently experienced forms of daily inequality because it occurs within one's own home. Young children are often passive observers of their family's distribution of labor, and yet little is known about the developmental onset of their perceptions of it. By the preschool age, children also show strong normative feelings about both equal resource distribution and gender stereotypes. To investigate the developmental onset of children's recognition of the (in)equality of household labor, we interviewed 3 to 10-y-old children in two distinct cultural contexts (US and China) and surveyed their caregivers about who does more household labor across a variety of tasks. Even at the youngest ages and in both cultural contexts, children's reports largely matched their parents', with both populations reporting that mothers do the majority of household labor. Both children and parents judged this to be generally fair, suggesting that children are observant of the gendered distribution of labor within their households, and show normalization of inequality from a young age. Our results point to preschool age as a critical developmental time period during which it is important to have parent-child discussions about structural constraints surrounding gender norms and household labor.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study.

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.

Mapping changes in housing in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2015.

Access to adequate housing is a fundamental human right, essential to human security, nutrition and health, and a core objective of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals1,2. Globally, the housing need is most acute in Africa, where the population will more than double by 2050. However, existing data on housing quality across Africa are limited primarily to urban areas and are mostly recorded at the national level. Here we quantify changes in housing in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2015 by combining national survey data within a geostatistical framework. We show a marked transformation of housing in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2015, with the prevalence of improved housing (with improved water and sanitation, sufficient living area and durable construction) doubling from 11% (95% confidence interval, 10-12%) to 23% (21-25%). However, 53 (50-57) million urban Africans (47% (44-50%) of the urban population analysed) were living in unimproved housing in 2015. We provide high-resolution, standardized estimates of housing conditions across sub-Saharan Africa. Our maps provide a baseline for measuring change and a mechanism to guide interventions during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Behavioral and financial coping strategies among energy-insecure households.

When households struggle to pay their energy bills and avoid being disconnected from the grid, they may accrue debt, forgo expenses on food, and use space heaters or ovens to warm their homes. These coping strategies can introduce significant physical and financial risks. In this study, we analyze an original survey with a representative sample of low-income households during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, from June 2020 to May 2021. We evaluate the prevalence of a wide range of coping strategies and empirically estimate the determinants of these strategies. We find that more than half of all low-income households engage in at least one coping strategy, and many use multiple strategies. Households with vulnerable members, including young children or those who rely on electronic medical devices, and households that live in deficient housing conditions, are more likely to use a range of coping strategies, and many at once. Our findings have direct implications for public policy improvements, including modifications to the US Weatherization Assistance Program, the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, and state utility disconnection protections.

Household Transmission of Mpox to Children and Adolescents, California, 2022.

BACKGROUND: In California, the 2022 mpox outbreak cumulated 5572 cases, 20% of US cases, as of November 28, 2022; 0.3% of cases were among children <16 years old. The secondary attack rate (SAR) for children sharing households with infected adults is unknown. METHODS: A line list of pediatric mpox household contacts aged <16 years reported through August 31, 2022 was created. It included demographic and clinical information on the contacts. Pediatric contact lists were crossmatched with the state vaccination database to identify those who received postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) with the JYNNEOS vaccine. RESULTS: We identified 129 pediatric household contacts with median age of 7 years (range, 0-15 years). Among 18 symptomatic contacts, 12 (66.7%) underwent mpox testing; 5 (41.2%) were confirmed cases, 6 (50%) were negative, and 1 (0.8%) had an indeterminate result. Six symptomatic children were not tested for mpox (33.3%). Overall, 6 infected contacts were identified, resulting in a SAR of 4.7% (6 of 129). The majority of pediatric household contacts and 4 of 6 infected children identified as Hispanic/Latino. Only 18 children (14%) reported receiving PEP. CONCLUSIONS: The SAR was overall low among pediatric household contacts; none had severe disease. This may be underestimated given low testing rates.