GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance.

This year's Lasker-Bloomberg Public Service Award goes to GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, for providing sustained access to childhood vaccines around the globe, saving millions of lives, and highlighting the power of immunization to prevent disease.

Behavioural nudges increase COVID-19 vaccinations.

Enhancing vaccine uptake is a critical public health challenge1. Overcoming vaccine hesitancy2,3 and failure to follow through on vaccination intentions3 requires effective communication strategies3,4. Here we present two sequential randomized controlled trials to test the effect of behavioural interventions on the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines. We designed text-based reminders that make vaccination salient and easy, and delivered them to participants drawn from a healthcare system one day (first randomized controlled trial) (n = 93,354 participants; clinicaltrials number NCT04800965) and eight days (second randomized controlled trial) (n = 67,092 individuals; clinicaltrials number NCT04801524) after they received a notification of vaccine eligibility. The first reminder boosted appointment and vaccination rates within the healthcare system by 6.07 (84%) and 3.57 (26%) percentage points, respectively; the second reminder increased those outcomes by 1.65 and 1.06 percentage points, respectively. The first reminder had a greater effect when it was designed to make participants feel ownership of the vaccine dose. However, we found no evidence that combining the first reminder with a video-based information intervention designed to address vaccine hesitancy heightened its effect. We performed online studies (n = 3,181 participants) to examine vaccination intentions, which revealed patterns that diverged from those of the first randomized controlled trial; this underscores the importance of pilot-testing interventions in the field. Our findings inform the design of behavioural nudges for promoting health decisions5, and highlight the value of making vaccination easy and inducing feelings of ownership over vaccines.

After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19.

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fuelled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection and re-entries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions; we outline these and propose a way forward.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

Feasibility, safety, and impact of the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine when implemented through national immunisation programmes: evaluation of cluster-randomised introduction of the vaccine in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine (RTS,S) was introduced by national immunisation programmes in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi in 2019 in large-scale pilot schemes. We aimed to address questions about feasibility and impact, and to assess safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial that included an excess of meningitis and cerebral malaria cases in RTS,S recipients, and the possibility of an excess of deaths among girls who received RTS,S than in controls, to inform decisions about wider use. METHODS: In this prospective evaluation, 158 geographical clusters (66 districts in Ghana; 46 sub-counties in Kenya; and 46 groups of immunisation clinic catchment areas in Malawi) were randomly assigned to early or delayed introduction of RTS,S, with three doses to be administered between the ages of 5 months and 9 months and a fourth dose at the age of approximately 2 years. Primary outcomes of the evaluation, planned over 4 years, were mortality from all causes except injury (impact), hospital admission with severe malaria (impact), hospital admission with meningitis or cerebral malaria (safety), deaths in girls compared with boys (safety), and vaccination coverage (feasibility). Mortality was monitored in children aged 1-59 months throughout the pilot areas. Surveillance for meningitis and severe malaria was established in eight sentinel hospitals in Ghana, six in Kenya, and four in Malawi. Vaccine uptake was measured in surveys of children aged 12-23 months about 18 months after vaccine introduction. We estimated that sufficient data would have accrued after 24 months to evaluate each of the safety signals and the impact on severe malaria in a pooled analysis of the data from the three countries. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by comparing the ratio of the number of events in children age-eligible to have received at least one dose of the vaccine (for safety outcomes), or age-eligible to have received three doses (for impact outcomes), to that in non-eligible age groups in implementation areas with the equivalent ratio in comparison areas. To establish whether there was evidence of a difference between girls and boys in the vaccine's impact on mortality, the female-to-male mortality ratio in age groups eligible to receive the vaccine (relative to the ratio in non-eligible children) was compared between implementation and comparison areas. Preliminary findings contributed to WHO's recommendation in 2021 for widespread use of RTS,S in areas of moderate-to-high malaria transmission. FINDINGS: By April 30, 2021, 652 673 children had received at least one dose of RTS,S and 494 745 children had received three doses. Coverage of the first dose was 76% in Ghana, 79% in Kenya, and 73% in Malawi, and coverage of the third dose was 66% in Ghana, 62% in Kenya, and 62% in Malawi. 26 285 children aged 1-59 months were admitted to sentinel hospitals and 13 198 deaths were reported through mortality surveillance. Among children eligible to have received at least one dose of RTS,S, there was no evidence of an excess of meningitis or cerebral malaria cases in implementation areas compared with comparison areas (hospital admission with meningitis: IRR 0·63 [95% CI 0·22-1·79]; hospital admission with cerebral malaria: IRR 1·03 [95% CI 0·61-1·74]). The impact of RTS,S introduction on mortality was similar for girls and boys (relative mortality ratio 1·03 [95% CI 0·88-1·21]). Among children eligible for three vaccine doses, RTS,S introduction was associated with a 32% reduction (95% CI 5-51%) in hospital admission with severe malaria, and a 9% reduction (95% CI 0-18%) in all-cause mortality (excluding injury). INTERPRETATION: In the first 2 years of implementation of RTS,S, the three primary doses were effectively deployed through national immunisation programmes. There was no evidence of the safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial, and introduction of the vaccine was associated with substantial reductions in hospital admission with severe malaria. Evaluation continues to assess the impact of four doses of RTS,S. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; and Unitaid.

Pathogen evolution during vaccination campaigns.

Following the initiation of the unprecedented global vaccination campaign against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), attention has now turned to the potential impact of this large-scale intervention on the evolution of the virus. In this Essay, we summarize what is currently known about pathogen evolution in the context of immune priming (including vaccination) from research on other pathogen species, with an eye towards the future evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

A 680,000-person megastudy of nudges to encourage vaccination in pharmacies.

Encouraging vaccination is a pressing policy problem. To assess whether text-based reminders can encourage pharmacy vaccination and what kinds of messages work best, we conducted a megastudy. We randomly assigned 689,693 Walmart pharmacy patients to receive one of 22 different text reminders using a variety of different behavioral science principles to nudge flu vaccination or to a business-as-usual control condition that received no messages. We found that the reminder texts that we tested increased pharmacy vaccination rates by an average of 2.0 percentage points, or 6.8%, over a 3-mo follow-up period. The most-effective messages reminded patients that a flu shot was waiting for them and delivered reminders on multiple days. The top-performing intervention included two texts delivered 3 d apart and communicated to patients that a vaccine was "waiting for you." Neither experts nor lay people anticipated that this would be the best-performing treatment, underscoring the value of simultaneously testing many different nudges in a highly powered megastudy.

Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed administering annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of an annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, quantify the health and economic benefits of a second dose provided to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older, and optimize the timing of a second dose. DESIGN: An age-structured dynamic transmission model. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: A synthetic population reflecting demographics and contact patterns in the United States. INTERVENTION: Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with age-specific uptake similar to that of influenza vaccination. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct health care cost. RESULTS: The optimal timing between the first and second dose delivered to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older in an annual vaccination campaign was estimated to be 5 months. In direct comparison with a single-dose campaign, a second booster dose results in 123 869 fewer hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 994 to 125 742 fewer hospitalizations) and 5524 fewer deaths (95% UI, 5434 to 5613 fewer deaths), averting $3.63 billion (95% UI, $3.57 billion to $3.69 billion) in costs over a single year. LIMITATIONS: Population immunity is subject to degrees of immune evasion for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The model was implemented in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions and preexisting vaccine-acquired immunity. CONCLUSION: The direct health care costs of SARS-CoV-2, particularly among adults aged 50 years or older, would be substantially reduced by administering a second dose 5 months after the initial dose. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Notsew Orm Sands Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and National Science Foundation.

High-Resolution Geospatial Mapping of Zero-Dose and Underimmunized Children Following Nigeria's 2021 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey.

BACKGROUND: "Zero-dose" children are those who are without any routine vaccination or are lacking the first dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine. Based on global estimates from the World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund in 2022, Nigeria has the highest number of zero-dose children, with >2.3 million unvaccinated. METHODS: We used data from the 2021 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey to identify zero-dose and underimmunized children. Geospatial modeling techniques were employed to determine the prevalence of zero-dose children and predict risk areas with underimmunized children at a high resolution (1 × 1 km). RESULTS: Zero-dose and underimmunized children are more prevalent in socially deprived groups. Univariate and multivariate bayesian analyses showed positive correlations between the prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children and factors such as stunting, contraceptive prevalence, and literacy. The prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children varies significantly by region and ethnicity, with higher rates observed in the country's northern parts. Significant heterogeneity in the distribution of undervaccinated children was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Nigeria needs to enhance its immunization system and coverage. Geospatial modeling can help deliver vaccines effectively to underserved communities. By adopting this approach, countries can ensure equitable vaccine access and contribute to global vaccination objectives.

Comprehensive Review on the Use of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) in Ethiopia: 2019 to 2023.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia necessitate frequent mass oral cholera vaccine (OCV) campaigns. Despite this, there is a notable absence of a comprehensive summary of these campaigns. Understanding national OCV vaccination history is essential to design appropriate and effective cholera control strategies. Here, we aimed to retrospectively review all OCV vaccination campaigns conducted across Ethiopia between 2019 and 2023. METHODS: The OCV request records from 2019 to October 2023 and vaccination campaign reports for the period from 2019 to December 2023 were retrospectively accessed from the Ethiopia Public Health Institute (EPHI) database. Descriptive analysis was conducted using the retrospective data collected. RESULTS: From 2019 to October 2023, Ethiopian government requested 32 044 576 OCV doses (31 899 576 doses to global stockpile; 145 000 doses to outside of stockpile). Around 66.3% of requested doses were approved; of which 90.4% were received. Fifteen OCV campaigns (12 reactive and 3 pre-emptive) were conducted, including five two-dose campaigns with varying dose intervals and single-dose campaigns partially in 2019 and entirely in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Overall vaccine administrative coverage was high; except for Tigray region (41.8% in the 1st round; 2nd round didn't occur). The vaccine administrative coverage records were documented, but no OCV coverage survey data was available. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first comprehensive review of OCV campaigns in Ethiopia spanning the last five years. Its findings offer valuable insights into informing future cholera control strategies, underscoring the importance of monitoring and evaluation despite resource constraints. Addressing the limitations in coverage survey data availability is crucial for enhancing the efficacy of future campaigns.

Strategies to Enhance COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Prioritized Groups, Uganda-Lessons Learned and Recommendations for Future Pandemics.

COVID-19 vaccination was launched in March 2021 in Uganda and initially prioritized persons >50 years of age, persons with underlying conditions, healthcare workers, teachers, and security forces. However, uptake remained low 5 months after the program launch. Makerere University's Infectious Diseases Institute supported Uganda's Ministry of Health in optimizing COVID-19 vaccination uptake models by using point-of-care, place of worship, and place of work engagement and the Social Assistance Grant for Empowerment model in 47 of 135 districts in Uganda, where we trained influencers to support mobilization for vaccination outreach under each model. During July-December, vaccination rates increased significantly in targeted regions, from 92% to 130% for healthcare workers, 40% to 90% for teachers, 25% to 33% for security personnel, 6% to 15% for persons >50 years of age, and 6% to 11% for persons with underlying conditions. Our approach could be adopted in other targeted vaccination campaigns for future pandemics.

Even though active recommendation for HPV vaccination has restarted, Japan's rates have not recovered.

Japan has a particularly critical situation surrounding its collapsed HPV vaccination program for preventing HPV-caused cervical cancers, a problem exacerbated by the lack of a national immunization database. We have determined the year-to-year HPV vaccination uptake by Japanese females and analyzed by birth fiscal year (FY) the monthly number of people receiving initial HPV vaccination. Our analysis covers the period from the start of public subsidies in 2010 to September 2023, using data provided by local governments. We calculated the cumulative number of monthly immunizations for those unimmunized as of April (the beginning of each vaccination year). The monthly number of initial HPV vaccinations was highest in August for every FY from FY 2010 to FY 2023; a second vaccination peak tended to occur in March when the vaccination year ended. The highest number of August vaccinations occurred in FY 2011, followed (in order) by 2012, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2013. In Japan's ongoing catch-up vaccination program for young women, the monthly number of vaccinations increased in August 2022 but then slowed the following year. After FY 2021, the cumulative vaccination coverage of subjects unvaccinated at the beginning of the vaccination year but subsequently covered by routine immunizations was slightly improved. FY 2021 was when the governmental recommendations for HPV vaccination were resumed. More recent vaccination rates are considerably lower than those in FY 2011-2012 when vaccinations were first fully endorsed. Paralyzing HPV vaccination hesitancy, which began in FY 2013, will linger in Japan in FY 2024.

Effectiveness of catch-up and routine program of the 9-valent vaccine on cervical cancer risk reduction in Japan.

In 2013, the national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program began. However, in June 2013, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) announced a "temporary" suspension of its recommendation for the human papillomavirus vaccine. Finally, in November 2021, the MHLW ended its suspension of the recommendation of the HPV vaccine. To address the 9-year gap in HPV vaccinations the suspension had caused, the MHLW conducted a program of catch-up vaccinations from April 2022 to March 2025. Finally, in April 2023, the 9-valent HPV vaccine was approved for both the routine and catch-up vaccination programs in Japan. In this study, we investigated the potential effects of the introduction of the 9-valent vaccine on the increased risk of cervical cancer in females born after fiscal year (FY) 2000. We estimated the lifetime relative risk of cervical cancer incidence and death using the improved routine and catch-up vaccination rates after the recent resumption of the governmental recommendation for women and girls to have the HPV vaccination. These relative risks were calculated using a lifetime risk of 1.000 for cervical cancer incidence and death for females born in FY 1993. We predicted that even if a 90% vaccination rate were to be achieved by FY 2024 with the 9-valent vaccine among women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, the risk would remain higher than for the vaccination generation. Therefore, for women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, it will be necessary to significantly improve the cervical cancer screening rate to compensate for this increased risk.

Survival of the Wealthiest?

A number of promising COVID-19 vaccine candidates may pass approval this month. However, the pandemic will only be brought into check through an equitable, epidemiologically informed distribution policy. The health emergency provides a unique opportunity for a new paradigm to mitigate between global health, national and commercial interests.

Completion of multidose vaccine series in early childhood: current challenges and opportunities.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Completion of all doses in multidose vaccine series provides optimal protection against preventable infectious diseases. In this review, we describe clinical and public health implications of multidose vaccine series noncompletion, including current challenges to ensuring children receive all recommended vaccinations. We then highlight actionable steps toward achieving early childhood immunization goals. RECENT FINDINGS: Although coverage levels are high for most early childhood vaccinations, rates of completion are lower for vaccinations that require multiple doses. Recent research has shown that lower family socioeconomic status, a lack of health insurance coverage, having multiple children in the household, and moving across state lines are associated with children failing to complete multidose vaccine series. These findings provide contextual evidence to support that practical challenges to accessing immunization services are impediments to completion of multidose series. Strategies, including reminder/recall, use of centralized immunization information systems, and clinician prompts, have been shown to increase immunization rates. Re-investing in these effective interventions and modernizing the public health infrastructure can facilitate multidose vaccine series completion. SUMMARY: Completion of multidose vaccine series is a challenge for immunization service delivery. Increased efforts are needed to address remaining barriers and improve vaccination coverage in the United States.

Poor durability of the neutralizing response against XBB sublineages after a bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster dose in persons with HIV.

We estimated the dynamics of the neutralizing response against XBB sublineages and T cell response in persons with HIV (PWH) with previous AIDS and/or CD4 < 200/mm3 receiving the bivalent original strain/BA.4-5 booster dose in fall 2022. Samples were collected before the shot (Day 0), 15 days, 3, and 6 months after. PWH were stratified by immunization status: hybrid immunity (HI; vaccination plus COVID-19) versus nonhybrid immunity (nHI; vaccination only). Fifteen days after the booster, 16% and 30% of PWH were nonresponders in terms of anti-XBB.1.16 or anti-EG.5.1 nAbs, respectively. Three months after, a significant waning of anti-XBB.1.16, EG.5.1 and -XBB.1 nAbs was observed both in HI and nHI but nAbs in HI were higher than in nHI. Six months after both HI and nHI individuals displayed low mean levels of anti-XBB.1.16 and EG.5.1 nAbs. Regarding T cell response, IFN-γ values were stable over time and similar in HI and nHI. Our data showed that in PWH, during the prevalent circulation of the XBB.1.16, EG.5.1, and other XBB sublineages, a mRNA bivalent vaccine might not confer broad protection against them. With a view to the 2023/2024 vaccination campaign, the use of the monovalent XBB.1.5 mRNA vaccine should be urgently warranted in PWH to provide adequate protection.

Global vaccine coverage and childhood survival estimates: 1990-2019.

Objective: To quantify the association between reduction in child mortality and routine immunization across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used child mortality and vaccine coverage data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used a modified child survival framework and applied a mixed-effects regression model to estimate the reduction in deaths in children younger than 5 years associated with eight vaccines. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), measles, rotavirus and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines were significantly associated with an estimated 86.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 57.2 to 132.4) million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide. This decrease represented a 24.2% (95% CI: 19.8 to 28.9) reduction in deaths relative to a scenario without vaccines. The DTP and measles vaccines averted 46.7 (95% CI: 30.0 to 72.7) million and 37.9 (95% CI: 25.4 to 56.8) million deaths, respectively. Of the total reduction in child mortality associated with vaccines, 84.2% (95% CI: 83.0 to 85.1) occurred in 73 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, with an estimated 45.4 (95% CI: 29.8 to 69.2) million fewer deaths from 2000 to 2019. The largest reductions in deaths associated with these four vaccines were in India, China, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Bangladesh (in order of the size of reduction). Conclusion: Vaccines continue to reduce childhood mortality significantly, especially in Gavi-supported countries, emphasizing the need for increased investment in routine immunization programmes.

Survey of hepatitis B virus infection status after 35 years of universal vaccination implementation in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination programs in Taiwan are one of the earliest programs in the world and have largely reduced the prevalence of HBV infection. We aimed to demonstrate the vaccination efficacy after 35 years and identify gaps toward HBV elimination. METHODS: A total of 4717 individuals aged 1-60 years were recruited from four administrative regions based on the proportion of population distribution. Serum levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs), and hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) levels were assessed. HBV viral load, genotypes and HBsAg 'ɑ' determinant variants were evaluated if indicated. RESULTS: After 35 years of vaccination, the overall seropositivity rates for HBsAg and anti-HBc in Taiwan were 4.05% and 21.3%, respectively. The vaccinated birth cohorts exhibited significantly lower seropositivity rates for both markers compared to the unvaccinated birth cohorts (HBsAg: 0.64% vs. 9.78%; anti-HBc: 2.1% vs. 53.55%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Maternal transmission was identified as the main route of HBV infection in breakthrough cases. Additionally, increased prevalences of genotype C and HBsAg escape mutants were observed. CONCLUSION: The 35-year universal HBV vaccination program effectively reduced the burden of HBV infection, but complete eradication of HBV infection has not yet been achieved. In addition to immunization, comprehensive screening and antiviral therapy for infected individuals, especially for pregnant women, are crucial strategies to eliminate HBV.