The origins of viral infection sleuth.

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.

Clinical Sequencing Uncovers Origins and Evolution of Lassa Virus.

The 2013-2015 West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reminds us of how little is known about biosafety level 4 viruses. Like Ebola virus, Lassa virus (LASV) can cause hemorrhagic fever with high case fatality rates. We generated a genomic catalog of almost 200 LASV sequences from clinical and rodent reservoir samples. We show that whereas the 2013-2015 EVD epidemic is fueled by human-to-human transmissions, LASV infections mainly result from reservoir-to-human infections. We elucidated the spread of LASV across West Africa and show that this migration was accompanied by changes in LASV genome abundance, fatality rates, codon adaptation, and translational efficiency. By investigating intrahost evolution, we found that mutations accumulate in epitopes of viral surface proteins, suggesting selection for immune escape. This catalog will serve as a foundation for the development of vaccines and diagnostics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Evidence of zoonotic pathogens through biophysically induced genomic variance.

Zoonoses are infectious agents that are transmissible between animals and humans. Up to 60% of known infectious diseases and 75% of emergent diseases are zoonotic. Genomic variation between homeostatic populations provides a novel window into the effect of environmental pathogens on allelic distributions within the populations. Genodynamics is a biophysical approach utilizing developed metrics on biallelic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that can be used to quantify the adaptive influences due to pathogens. A genomic free energy that is minimized when overall population health is optimized describes the influence of environmental agents upon genomic variation. A double-blind exploration of over 100 thousand SNPs searching for smooth functional dependencies upon four zoonotic pathogens carried by four possible hosts amidst populations that live in their ancestral environments has been conducted. Exemplars that infectious agents can have significant adaptive influence on human populations are presented. One discussed SNP is likely associated with both adaptive and innate immune regulation. The adaptive response of another SNP suggests an intriguing connection between zoonoses and human cancers. The adaptive forces of the presented pathogens upon the human genome have been quantified.

Structural basis of receptor recognition by SARS-CoV-2.

A novel severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) recently emerged and is rapidly spreading in humans, causing COVID-191,2. A key to tackling this pandemic is to understand the receptor recognition mechanism of the virus, which regulates its infectivity, pathogenesis and host range. SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV recognize the same receptor-angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)-in humans3,4. Here we determined the crystal structure of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 (engineered to facilitate crystallization) in complex with ACE2. In comparison with the SARS-CoV RBD, an ACE2-binding ridge in SARS-CoV-2 RBD has a more compact conformation; moreover, several residue changes in the SARS-CoV-2 RBD stabilize two virus-binding hotspots at the RBD-ACE2 interface. These structural features of SARS-CoV-2 RBD increase its ACE2-binding affinity. Additionally, we show that RaTG13, a bat coronavirus that is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, also uses human ACE2 as its receptor. The differences among SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and RaTG13 in ACE2 recognition shed light on the potential animal-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This study provides guidance for intervention strategies that target receptor recognition by SARS-CoV-2.

Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia.

Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.

"Smart markets": harnessing the potential of new technologies for endemic and emerging infectious disease surveillance in traditional food markets.

Emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases continue to threaten human and animal health, our social fabric, and the global economy. Zoonoses frequently emerge from congregate interfaces where multiple animal species and humans coexist, including farms and markets. Traditional food markets are widespread across the globe and create an interface where domestic and wild animals interact among themselves and with humans, increasing the risk of pathogen spillover. Despite decades of evidence linking markets to disease outbreaks across the world, there remains a striking lack of pathogen surveillance programs that can relay timely, cost-effective, and actionable information to decision-makers to protect human and animal health. However, the strategic incorporation of environmental surveillance systems in markets coupled with novel pathogen detection strategies can create an early warning system capable of alerting us to the risk of outbreaks before they happen. Here, we explore the concept of "smart" markets that utilize continuous surveillance systems to monitor the emergence of zoonotic pathogens with spillover potential.IMPORTANCEFast detection and rapid intervention are crucial to mitigate risks of pathogen emergence, spillover and spread-every second counts. However, comprehensive, active, longitudinal surveillance systems at high-risk interfaces that provide real-time data for action remain lacking. This paper proposes "smart market" systems harnessing cutting-edge tools and a range of sampling techniques, including wastewater and air collection, multiplex assays, and metagenomic sequencing. Coupled with robust response pathways, these systems could better enable Early Warning and bolster prevention efforts.

Reverse-zoonoses of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A viruses and evolution in United States swine results in viruses with zoonotic potential.

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pdm09) lineage of influenza A virus (IAV) crosses interspecies barriers with frequent human-to-swine spillovers each year. These spillovers reassort and drift within swine populations, leading to genetically and antigenically novel IAV that represent a zoonotic threat. We quantified interspecies transmission of the pdm09 lineage, persistence in swine, and identified how evolution in swine impacted zoonotic risk. Human and swine pdm09 case counts between 2010 and 2020 were correlated and human pdm09 burden and circulation directly impacted the detection of pdm09 in pigs. However, there was a relative absence of pdm09 circulation in humans during the 2020-21 season that was not reflected in swine. During the 2020-21 season, most swine pdm09 detections originated from human-to-swine spillovers from the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons that persisted in swine. We identified contemporary swine pdm09 representatives of each persistent spillover and quantified cross-reactivity between human seasonal H1 vaccine strains and the swine strains using a panel of monovalent ferret antisera in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. The swine pdm09s had variable antigenic reactivity to vaccine antisera, but each swine pdm09 clade exhibited significant reduction in cross-reactivity to one or more of the human seasonal vaccine strains. Further supporting zoonotic risk, we showed phylogenetic evidence for 17 swine-to-human transmission events of pdm09 from 2010 to 2021, 11 of which were not previously classified as variants, with each of the zoonotic cases associated with persistent circulation of pdm09 in pigs. These data demonstrate that reverse-zoonoses and evolution of pdm09 in swine results in viruses that are capable of zoonotic transmission and represent a potential pandemic threat.

EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks.

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

In viral games, refs go to the replay.

After more than 2 years of intensive investigation, the direct ancestors of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain unidentified. Molecular epidemiology strongly supports a timeline marked by multiple, independent zoonoses in late 2019 (Pekar et al, 2022) solidifying the consensus hypothesis that close relatives of SARS-CoV-2 with high zoonotic potential were naturally circulating prior to the start of the pandemic (Andersen et al, 2020). Understanding where and when these ancestors acquired the genomic features that resulted in a virus with epidemic potential could enable the identification and mitigation of future pandemic viruses, even before the first human infection.

A comprehensive review of Langya virus and framework for future zoonotic disease control.

First reported in August 2022, the Langya virus (LayV) has emerged as a potential global health threat in the post-COVID-19 era. Preliminary reports show that 35 patients near Shandong and Henan, China experienced a febrile acute LayV infection. We conducted this review following the PRISMA protocol to synthesise current knowledge on LayV's characteristics in terms of molecular, clinical, and public health perspectives. This virus belongs to the Paramyxoviridae family and carries a non-segmented, single-stranded negative-sense RNA genome. Shrews may be the natural reservoir of the virus. Clinical symptoms range from mild flu-like symptoms to severe manifestations involving pneumonia, haematological disorders, and organ dysfunction. Diagnostic methods include PCR and ELISA assays. Despite the absence of established treatments, antiviral drugs such as ribavirin and chloroquine may be useful in some cases. In light of prevention, a comprehensive approach that emphasises multidisciplinary collaboration is crucial for early surveillance and response. Urgent global efforts are needed for vaccine development and preparedness against this potential pandemic threat. As the viral dynamics remain uncertain, a proactive approach is vital to mitigate the impact of not only LayV but also future threats on a large scale in long term.

Transmission dynamics, complications and mitigation strategies of the current mpox outbreak: A comprehensive review with bibliometric study.

As the mankind counters the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), it simultaneously witnesses the emergence of mpox virus (MPXV) that signals at global spread and could potentially lead to another pandemic. Although MPXV has existed for more than 50 years now with most of the human cases being reported from the endemic West and Central African regions, the disease is recently being reported in non-endemic regions too that affect more than 50 countries. Controlling the spread of MPXV is important due to its potential danger of a global spread, causing severe morbidity and mortality. The article highlights the transmission dynamics, zoonosis potential, complication and mitigation strategies for MPXV infection, and concludes with suggested 'one health' approach for better management, control and prevention. Bibliometric analyses of the data extend the understanding and provide leads on the research trends, the global spread, and the need to revamp the critical research and healthcare interventions. Globally published mpox-related literature does not align well with endemic areas/regions of occurrence which should ideally have been the scenario. Such demographic and geographic gaps between the location of the research work and the endemic epicentres of the disease need to be bridged for greater and effective translation of the research outputs to pubic healthcare systems, it is suggested.

Bats host the most virulent-but not the most dangerous-zoonotic viruses.

SignificanceThe clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective "burden" on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human-animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.

Rats and the city: Implications of urbanization on zoonotic disease risk in Southeast Asia.

Urbanization is rapidly transforming much of Southeast Asia, altering the structure and function of the landscape, as well as the frequency and intensity of the interactions between people, animals, and the environment. In this study, we explored the impact of urbanization on zoonotic disease risk by simultaneously characterizing changes in the ecology of animal reservoirs (rodents), ectoparasite vectors (ticks), and pathogens across a gradient of urbanization in Kuching, a city in Malaysian Borneo. We sampled 863 rodents across rural, developing, and urban locations and found that rodent species diversity decreased with increasing urbanization-from 10 species in the rural location to 4 in the rural location. Notably, two species appeared to thrive in urban areas, as follows: the invasive urban exploiter Rattus rattus (n = 375) and the native urban adapter Sundamys muelleri (n = 331). R. rattus was strongly associated with built infrastructure across the gradient and carried a high diversity of pathogens, including multihost zoonoses capable of environmental transmission (e.g., Leptospira spp.). In contrast, S. muelleri was restricted to green patches where it was found at high densities and was strongly associated with the presence of ticks, including the medically important genera Amblyomma, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes. Our analyses reveal that zoonotic disease risk is elevated and heterogeneously distributed in urban environments and highlight the potential for targeted risk reduction through pest management and public health messaging.

Pandemic origins and a One Health approach to preparedness and prevention: Solutions based on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses.

COVID-19 is the latest zoonotic RNA virus epidemic of concern. Learning how it began and spread will help to determine how to reduce the risk of future events. We review major RNA virus outbreaks since 1967 to identify common features and opportunities to prevent emergence, including ancestral viral origins in birds, bats, and other mammals; animal reservoirs and intermediate hosts; and pathways for zoonotic spillover and community spread, leading to local, regional, or international outbreaks. The increasing scientific evidence concerning the origins of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most consistent with a zoonotic origin and a spillover pathway from wildlife to people via wildlife farming and the wildlife trade. We apply what we know about these outbreaks to identify relevant, feasible, and implementable interventions. We identify three primary targets for pandemic prevention and preparedness: first, smart surveillance coupled with epidemiological risk assessment across wildlife-livestock-human (One Health) spillover interfaces; second, research to enhance pandemic preparedness and expedite development of vaccines and therapeutics; and third, strategies to reduce underlying drivers of spillover risk and spread and reduce the influence of misinformation. For all three, continued efforts to improve and integrate biosafety and biosecurity with the implementation of a One Health approach are essential. We discuss new models to address the challenges of creating an inclusive and effective governance structure, with the necessary stable funding for cross-disciplinary collaborative research. Finally, we offer recommendations for feasible actions to close the knowledge gaps across the One Health continuum and improve preparedness and response in the future.

Seasonal Patterns of Mpox Index Cases, Africa, 1970-2021.

Across 133 confirmed mpox zoonotic index cases reported during 1970-2021 in Africa, cases occurred year-round near the equator, where climate is consistent. However, in tropical regions of the northern hemisphere under a dry/wet season cycle, cases occurred seasonally. Our findings further support the seasonality of mpox zoonotic transmission risk.

Effect of Rodent Control Program on Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Iran.

We report the effect of a rodent control program on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic region of Iran. A 1-year interruption in rodent control led to 2 years of increased incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis. Restarting rodent control led to a decline of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis.

Sporotrichosis Cluster in Domestic Cats and Veterinary Technician, Kansas, USA, 2022.

We describe a feline sporotrichosis cluster and zoonotic transmission between one of the affected cats and a technician at a veterinary clinic in Kansas, USA. Increased awareness of sporotrichosis and the potential for zoonotic transmission could help veterinary professionals manage feline cases and take precautions to prevent human acquisition.

Field Research Is Essential to Counter Virological Threats.

The interface between humans and wildlife is changing and, with it, the potential for pathogen introduction into humans has increased. Avian influenza is a prominent example, with an ongoing outbreak showing the unprecedented expansion of both geographic and host ranges. Research in the field is essential to understand this and other zoonotic threats. Only by monitoring dynamic viral populations and defining their biology in situ can we gather the information needed to ensure effective pandemic preparation.

Zoonotic spillover and extreme weather events drive the global outbreaks of airborne viral emerging infectious diseases.

Outbreaks of airborne viral emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) cause an increasing burden on global public health, particularly with a backdrop of intensified climate change. However, infection sources and drivers for outbreaks of airborne viral EIDs remain unknown. Here, we aim to explore the driving mechanisms of outbreaks based on the one health perspective. Outbreak information for 20 types of airborne viral EIDs was collected from the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network database and a systematic literature review. Four statistically significant and high-risk spatiotemporal clusters for airborne viral EID outbreaks were identified globally using multivariate scan statistic tests. There were 112 outbreaks with clear infection sources, and zoonotic spillover was the most common source (95.54%, 107/112). Since 1970, the majority of outbreaks occurred in healthcare facilities (24.82%), followed by schools (17.93%) and animal-related settings (15.93%). Significant associations were detected between the number of earthquakes, storms, duration of floods, and airborne viral EIDs' outbreaks using a case-crossover study design and multivariable conditional logistic regression. These findings implied that zoonotic spillover and extreme weather events are driving global outbreaks of airborne viral EIDs, and targeted prevention and control measures should be made to reduce the airborne viral EIDs burden.

Mpox outbreak in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A translational approach.

Mpox is a zoonotic disease historically reported in Africa. Since 2003, limited outbreaks have occurred outside Africa. In 2022, the global spread of cases with sustained interhuman transmission and unusual disease features raised public health concerns. We explore the mpox outbreak in Rio de Janeiro (RJ) state, Brazil, in an observational study of mpox-suspected cases from June to December 2022. Data collection relied on a public healthcare notification form. Diagnosis was determined by MPXV-PCR. In 46 confirmed cases, anti-OPXV IgG was determined by ELISA, and seven MPXV genomes were sequenced. A total of 3095 cases were included, 816 (26.3%) with positive MPXV-PCR results. Most positive cases were men in their 30 s and MSM. A total of 285 (34.9%) MPXV-PCR+ patients live with HIV. Eight were coinfected with varicella-zoster virus. Anogenital lesions and adenomegaly were associated with the diagnosis of mpox. Females and individuals under 18 represented 9.4% and 5.4% of all confirmed cases, respectively, showing higher PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values and fewer anogenital lesions compared to adult men. Anti-OPXV IgG was detected in 29/46 (63.0%) patients. All analyzed sequences belonged to clade IIb. In RJ state, mpox presented a diverse clinical picture, represented mainly by mild cases with low complication rates and prominent genital involvement. The incidence in females and children was higher than usually reported. The observation of a bimodal distribution of Ct values, with few positive results, may suggest the need to review the diagnostic criteria in these groups.