Impact of the Ageing Population on the Burden of Stroke: The Dijon Stroke Registry.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the impact of the ageing population on temporal trends in burden of stroke and to provide projections for the coming years. METHODS: Stroke cases (ischemic strokes, spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhages, or undetermined strokes) were prospectively identified between 1987 and 2015 in Dijon, France, using a population-based registry. Age-standardized incidence rates of first-ever and recurrent stroke were calculated, and their temporal trends were assessed using age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence rate ratios (RR). RESULTS: The population of Dijon increased by 3.8% over time, with an increase by 28% in the number of residents aged ≥75 years. We recorded 5,899 strokes including 5,101 patients with a first-ever event. Incidence of first-ever stroke was stable both in people < 75 and ≥75 years old, but an increase in standardized incidence rates of total strokes was noted due to a rise in the incidence of recurrent stroke (from 4.7/100,000/year in 1987-1994 to 12.3/100,000/year in 2009-2015 in people < 75 years old, RR 1.036; p < 0.001; from 74/100,000/year in 1987-1994 to 200/100,000/year in 2009-2015 in people ≥75 years, RR 1.040; p < 0.001). The absolute number of first-ever strokes increased by 43%, and that of total stroke events rose by 58% over time, with a more pronounced increase in people ≥75 years old (+47 and +65% respectively). The annual number of patients who survived > 90 days after a first-ever stroke increased by 90%. According to demographic projections, the total number of strokes will increase by 55% (+65% patients ≥75 years, and +25% patients < 75 years) by 2,030 in Dijon. CONCLUSIONS: Ageing and growth of the population led to a rise in the absolute number of strokes, especially in the elderly, that is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years. Improved stroke care was accompanied with an increase in stroke survivors that contributed to a rise in recurrent events. Urgent action is needed to meet this epidemiological challenge.