Is Active Surveillance an Option for the Management of Men with Low-grade Prostate Cancer and a Positive Family History? Results from a Large, Single-institution Series.

BACKGROUND: Family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PCa) is associated with an increased risk of PCa and adverse disease features. However, whether patients with localized PCa and FH could be considered for active surveillance (AS) remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between FH and reclassification of AS candidates, and to define predictors of adverse outcomes in men with positive FH. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 656 patients with grade group (GG) 1 PCa included in an AS protocol at a single institution were identified. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Kaplan-Meier analyses assessed the time to reclassification (GG ≥2 and GG ≥3 at follow-up biopsies) overall and according to FH status. Multivariable Cox regression tested the impact of FH on reclassification and identified the predictors among men with FH. Men treated with delayed radical prostatectomy (n = 197) or external-beam radiation therapy (n = 64) were identified, and the impact of FH on oncologic outcomes was assessed. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, 119 men (18%) had FH. The median follow-up was 54 mo (interquartile range 29-84 mo), and 264 patients experienced reclassification. The 5-yr reclassification-free survival rate was 39% versus 57% for FH versus no FH (p = 0.006), and FH was associated with reclassification to GG ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.15, p = 0.002). In men with FH, the strongest predictors of reclassification were prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density (PSAD), high-volume GG 1 (≥33% of cores involved or ≥50% of any core involved), and suspicious magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the prostate (HRs 2.87, 3.04, and 3.87, respectively; all p < 0.05). No association between FH, adverse pathologic features, and biochemical recurrence was observed (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with FH on AS are at an increased risk of reclassification. Negative MRI, low disease volume, and low PSAD identify men with FH and a low risk of reclassification. Nonetheless, sample size and wide CIs entail caution in drawing conclusions based on these results. PATIENT SUMMARY: We tested the impact of family history in men on active surveillance for localized prostate cancer. A significant risk of reclassification, but not adverse oncologic outcomes after deferred treatment, prompts the need for cautious discussion with these patients, without precluding initial expectant management.