Shock score for prediction of clinical outcomes among stable patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Composite Pulmonary Embolism Shock (CPES) score has been developed to identify normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and a low cardiac index (referred to as normotensive shock). We aimed to externally assess the validity of this model for predicting a complicated course among hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE. METHODS: Using prospectively collected data from the PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography scan (PROTECT) study, we calculated the CPES score for each patient and the proportion of patients with a score > 3. We calculated the test performance characteristics to predict a complicated course (i.e., death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, or recurrent PE) and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Sixty-three of the 848 (7.4 %) patients had a complicated course during the 30-day follow-up period. Of the 848 enrolled patients, the CPES score was positive (i.e., score > 3) in 78 (9.2 %). The specificity was 92.1 % (723/785), the positive predictive value was 20.5 % (16/78), and the positive likelihood ratio was 3.22 for a complicated course. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a complicated course were 0.71 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.78). With the higher score risk classification threshold (cutoff score > 4), the proportion of patients designated as positive was 2.1 %, and the specificity was 98.1 %. When echocardiographic right ventricle (RV) dysfunction was replaced by computed tomographic RV enlargement, the specificity was 85.4 %, the positive predictive value was 14.2 %, and the positive likelihood ratio was 2.06 for a complicated course. When analyses were restricted to the subgroup of patients with intermediate-risk PE, the specificity and the positive predictive value for a complicated course were identical to the overall cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The CPES score has acceptable C-statistic, excellent specificity, and low positive predictive value for identification of hemodynamic deterioration in normotensive patients with PE. CLINICALTRIALS gov number NCT02238639.