Comparison of risk prediction models for the progression of pelvic inflammatory disease patients to sepsis: Cox regression model and machine learning model.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: The present study presents the development and validation of a clinical prediction model using random survival forest (RSF) and stepwise Cox regression, aiming to predict the probability of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) progressing to sepsis. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, gathering clinical data of patients diagnosed with PID between 2008 and 2019 from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients who met the Sepsis 3.0 diagnostic criteria were selected, with sepsis as the outcome. Univariate Cox regression and stepwise Cox regression were used to screen variables for constructing a nomogram. Moreover, an RSF model was created using machine learning algorithms. To verify the model's performance, a calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were utilized. Furthermore, the capabilities of the two models for estimating the incidence of sepsis in PID patients within 3 and 7 days were compared. Results: A total of 1064 PID patients were included, of whom 54 had progressed to sepsis. The established nomogram highlighted dialysis, reduced platelet (PLT) counts, history of pneumonia, medication of glucocorticoids, and increased leukocyte counts as significant predictive factors. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the nomogram for prediction of PID progression to sepsis at 3-day and 7-day (3-/7-day) in the training set and the validation set were 0.886/0.863 and 0.824/0.726, respectively, and the C-index of the model was 0.8905. The RSF displayed excellent performance, with AUCs of 0.939/0.919 and 0.712/0.571 for 3-/7-day risk prediction in the training set and validation set, respectively. Conclusion: The nomogram accurately predicted the incidence of sepsis in PID patients, and relevant risk factors were identified. While the RSF model outperformed the Cox regression models in predicting sepsis incidence, its performance exhibited some instability. On the other hand, the Cox regression-based nomogram displayed stable performance and improved interpretability, thereby supporting clinical decision-making in PID treatment.