Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the impact of tumor size on cancer-specific survival of locally advanced renal cell carcinoma: a SEER-based study.

ABSTRACT

This study was aimed to integrate tumor size with other prognostic factors into a prognostic nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in locally advanced (≥pT3a Nany M0) renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients. Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 10,800 patients diagnosed with locally advanced RCC were collected. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 7,056) and a validation cohort (n = 3,024). X-tile program was used to identify the optimal cut-off value of tumor size and age. The cut-off of age at diagnosis was 65 years old and 75 years old. The cut-off of tumor size was 54 mm and 119 mm. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed in the training cohort to identify independent prognostic factors for construction of nomogram. Then, the nomogram was used to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year CSS. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by using concordance index (C-index), area under the Subject operating curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Moreover, the nomogram and tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system (AJCC 8th edition) were compared. 10 variables were screened to develop the nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) indicated satisfactory ability of the nomogram. Compared with the AJCC 8th edition of TNM stage, DCA showed that the nomogram had improved performance. We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting the CSS of patients with locally advanced RCC, which was more precise than the AJCC 8th edition of TNM staging system.