Construction of a nomogram predicting the risk of peri-operative complications after open radical prostatectomy / 中华泌尿外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct and evaluate a nomogram for predicting the risk of peri-operative complications after radical retro-pubic prostatectomy (RRP) with standard classification criteria.Methods The peri-operative complications and clinicopathological data of 240 patients (50-82 years old) who had undergone RRP for prostate cancer from June 2006 to June 2011 were retrospectively collected.Gleason score:95 cases ＜ 7; 145 patients ≥ 7;Clinical staging:cT1 is 1 case (0.4％),T2a 5 cases (2.1％),T2b 7 cases (2.9％),T2c 162 cases (67.5％),T3a 26 cases (10.8％),T3b 39 cases (16.3％).The peri-operative complications (in 30 days after surgery) were classified by Clavien-Dindo Classification system (the occurrence rates are as follows:rectum injury 1.6％,wound infection 2.0％,deep venous thrombosis 1.2％,urinary leak 5.0％,lymphocele 4.5％,myocardial infarction 5.8％,second look operation 1.6％),and a logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram.Results BMI,N staging and Blood loss more than 200ml during surgery were independent prognostic factors of RRP morbidity in multivariate logistic regression.The nomogram predicting the risk of peri-operative complications showed relative good concordance index (0.633) and good calibration. Conclusions Based on the clinicopathological factors,a nomogram to predict the probability of peri-operative complications in patients undergone RRP was constructed.This statistical tool may be beneficial in judging operation risk and help consulting with patient before or after surgery.