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Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California.

Ostro, Bart; Rauch, Stephen; Green, Shelley
| Idioma(s): Inglés
BACKGROUND: Several epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between high summer temperatures and increased mortality. However, the quantitative implications of projected future increases in temperature have not been well characterized. OBJECTIVE: This study quantifies the effects of projected future temperatures on both mortality and morbidity in California, including the potential effects of mitigation. DATA AND METHODS: We first estimated the association between temperature and mortality for populations close to weather stations throughout the state. These dose-response estimates for mortality were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, and projected changes in temperature, using a baseline of average temperatures from 1961 to 1990, for the years 2025 and 2050. The latter were based on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, we assessed the impacts of future adaptation through use of air conditioners. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the likely range of estimates. RESULTS: These analyses indicate that for the high emissions scenario, the central estimate of annual premature mortality ranges from 2100 to 4300 for the year 2025 and from 6700 to 11,300 for 2050. The highest estimates are from the models that use age-specific dose-response functions, while the low estimates are from the models that adjust for ozone. Estimates using the low emissions scenario are roughly half of these estimates. Mitigation based on our estimates of the effects of 10% and 20% increase in air conditioner use would generate reductions of 16% and 33% in the years 2025 and 2050, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our estimates suggest significant public health impacts associated with future projected increases in temperature.
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Cambio climático y la salud humana

Pabón, José Daniel; Nicholls, Rubén Santiago
| Idioma(s): Español
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Carta de Porto Alegre sobre Saúde Planetária (1º Simpósio Internacional de Saúde Planetária, Porto Alegre, 2017)/ Porto Alegre Charter on Planetary Health (1st International Symposium on Planetary Health, Porto Alegre, 2017)/ Carta de Porto Alegre sobre Salud Planetaria (1º Simposio Internacional de Salud Planetaria, Porto Alegre, 2017)

Sirena, Sergio Antonio; Baldisserotto, Julio; Stein, Airton Tetelbon; Dora, Carlos; Barros, Enrique; Jotz, Geraldo Pereira
| Idioma(s): Portugués
Os participantes do 1º Simpósio Internacional de Saúde Planetária, reunidos em Porto Alegre, propõem que se dissemine a discussão do tema e se articule a resposta e a contribuição do sistema de saúde aos crescentes desafios que enfrenta a saúde da população decorrentes da mudança climática, poluição, redução da biodiversidade e outros fatores ambientais The participants of the 1st International Symposium on Planetary Health, held in Porto Alegre, propose to disseminate the discussion of the theme and articulate the response and contribution of the health system to the growing challenges facing the health of the population due to climate change, pollution, reduction of biodiversity and other environmental factors. Los participantes del 1º Simposio Internacional de Salud Planetaria, reunidos en Porto Alegre, proponen la diseminación de la discusión del tema y articulación de la respuesta y la contribución del sistema de salud a los crecientes desafíos que enfrenta la salud de la población derivada del cambio climático, contaminación, reducción de la biodiversidad y otros factores ambientales.
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Burning Fossil Fuels: Impact of Climate Change on Health.

Sommer, Alfred
| Idioma(s): Inglés
A recent, sophisticated granular analysis of climate change in the United States related to burning fossil fuels indicates a high likelihood of dramatic increases in temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and precipitation, which will dramatically impact the health and well-being of many Americans, particularly the young, the elderly, and the poor and marginalized. Other areas of the world, where they lack the resources to remediate these weather impacts, will be even more greatly affected. Too little attention is being paid to the impending health impact of accumulating greenhouse gases.
Resultados  1-10 de 1.159