A call for open science in forensics.

The modern canon of open science consists of five "schools of thought" that justify unfettered access to the fruits of scientific research: i) public engagement, ii) democratic right of access, iii) efficiency of knowledge gain, iv) shared technology, and v) better assessment of impact. Here, we introduce a sixth school: due process. Due process under the law includes a right to "discovery" by a defendant of potentially exculpatory evidence held by the prosecution. When such evidence is scientific, due process becomes a Constitutional mandate for open science. To illustrate the significance of this new school, we present a case study from forensics, which centers on a federally funded investigation that reports summary statistics indicating that identification decisions made by forensic firearms examiners are highly accurate. Because of growing concern about validity of forensic methods, the larger scientific community called for public release of the complete analyzable dataset for independent audit and verification. Those in possession of the data opposed release for three years while summary statistics were used by prosecutors to gain admissibility of evidence in criminal trials. Those statistics paint an incomplete picture and hint at flaws in experimental design and analysis. Under the circumstances, withholding the underlying data in a criminal proceeding violates due process. Following the successful open-science model of drug validity testing through "clinical trials," which place strict requirements on experimental design and timing of data release, we argue for registered and open "forensic trials" to ensure transparency and accountability.

A scientist's take on scientific evidence in the courtroom.

Scientific evidence is frequently offered to answer questions of fact in a court of law. DNA genotyping may link a suspect to a homicide. Receptor binding assays and behavioral toxicology may testify to the teratogenic effects of bug repellant. As for any use of science to inform fateful decisions, the immediate question raised is one of credibility: Is the evidence a product of valid methods? Are results accurate and reproducible? While the rigorous criteria of modern science seem a natural model for this evaluation, there are features unique to the courtroom that make the decision process scarcely recognizable by normal standards of scientific investigation. First, much science lies beyond the ken of those who must decide; outside "experts" must be called upon to advise. Second, questions of fact demand immediate resolution; decisions must be based on the science of the day. Third, in contrast to the generative adversarial process of scientific investigation, which yields successive approximations to the truth, the truth-seeking strategy of American courts is terminally adversarial, which risks fracturing knowledge along lines of discord. Wary of threats to credibility, courts have adopted formal rules for determining whether scientific testimony is trustworthy. Here, I consider the effectiveness of these rules and explore tension between the scientists' ideal that momentous decisions should be based upon the highest standards of evidence and the practical reality that those standards are difficult to meet. Justice lies in carefully crafted compromise that benefits from robust bonds between science and law.

Scientific guidelines for evaluating the validity of forensic feature-comparison methods.

When it comes to questions of fact in a legal context-particularly questions about measurement, association, and causality-courts should employ ordinary standards of applied science. Applied sciences generally develop along a path that proceeds from a basic scientific discovery about some natural process to the formation of a theory of how the process works and what causes it to fail, to the development of an invention intended to assess, repair, or improve the process, to the specification of predictions of the instrument's actions and, finally, empirical validation to determine that the instrument achieves the intended effect. These elements are salient and deeply embedded in the cultures of the applied sciences of medicine and engineering, both of which primarily grew from basic sciences. However, the inventions that underlie most forensic science disciplines have few roots in basic science, and they do not have sound theories to justify their predicted actions or results of empirical tests to prove that they work as advertised. Inspired by the "Bradford Hill Guidelines"-the dominant framework for causal inference in epidemiology-we set forth four guidelines that can be used to establish the validity of forensic comparison methods generally. This framework is not intended as a checklist establishing a threshold of minimum validity, as no magic formula determines when particular disciplines or hypotheses have passed a necessary threshold. We illustrate how these guidelines can be applied by considering the discipline of firearm and tool mark examination.

Science, evidence, law, and justice.

For nearly 25 y, the Committee on Science, Technology, and Law (CSTL), of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, has brought together distinguished members of the science and law communities to stimulate discussions that would lead to a better understanding of the role of science in legal decisions and government policies and to a better understanding of the legal and regulatory frameworks that govern the conduct of science. Under the leadership of recent CSTL co-chairs David Baltimore and David Tatel, and CSTL director Anne-Marie Mazza, the committee has overseen many interdisciplinary discussions and workshops, such as the international summits on human genome editing and the science of implicit bias, and has delivered advisory consensus reports focusing on topics of broad societal importance, such as dual use research in the life sciences, voting systems, and advances in neural science research using organoids and chimeras. One of the most influential CSTL activities concerns the use of forensic evidence by law enforcement and the courts, with emphasis on the scientific validity of forensic methods and the role of forensic testimony in bringing about justice. As coeditors of this Special Feature, CSTL alumni Tom Albright and Jennifer Mnookin have recruited articles at the intersection of science and law that reveal an emerging scientific revolution of forensic practice, which we hope will engage a broad community of scientists, legal scholars, and members of the public with interest in science-based legal policy and justice reform.

How to make better forensic decisions.

Much of forensic practice today involves human decisions about the origins of patterned sensory evidence, such as tool marks and fingerprints discovered at a crime scene. These decisions are made by trained observers who compare the evidential pattern to an exemplar pattern produced by the suspected source of the evidence. The decision consists of a determination as to whether the two patterns are similar enough to have come from the same source. Although forensic pattern comparison disciplines have for decades played a valued role in criminal investigation and prosecution, the extremely high personal and societal costs of failure-the conviction of innocent people-has elicited calls for caution and for the development of better practices. These calls have been heard by the scientific community involved in the study of human information processing, which has begun to offer much-needed perspectives on sensory measurement, discrimination, and classification in a forensic context. Here I draw from a well-established theoretical and empirical approach in sensory science to illustrate the vulnerabilities of contemporary pattern comparison disciplines and to suggest specific strategies for improvement.

The US Department of Justice stumbles on visual perception.

A large and highly valuable category of forensic evidence consists of patterned impressions created during the perpetration of a crime. These crime scene artifacts, such as fingerprints or tire tracks, offer visual sensory information that is assessed by trained human observers and compared to sensory experiences elicited by model patterns that would have been produced under a hypothesized set of conditions. By means of this "forensic feature comparison," the observer makes a judgment about whether the evidence and the model are sufficiently similar to support common origin. In light of documented failures of this approach, significant concerns have been raised about its scientific validity. In response to these concerns, the US Department of Justice has made assertions about how forensic examiners perform feature comparison tasks that are not consistent with modern scientific understanding of the processes of sensation and perception. Clarification of these processes highlights new ways of thinking about and improving the accuracy of forensic feature comparison and underscores the vital role of science in achieving justice.

A call for more science in forensic science.

Forensic science is critical to the administration of justice. The discipline of forensic science is remarkably complex and includes methodologies ranging from DNA analysis to chemical composition to pattern recognition. Many forensic practices developed under the auspices of law enforcement and were vetted primarily by the legal system rather than being subjected to scientific scrutiny and empirical testing. Beginning in the 1990s, exonerations based on DNA-related methods revealed problems with some forensic disciplines, leading to calls for major reforms. This process generated a National Academy of Science report in 2009 that was highly critical of many forensic practices and eventually led to the establishment of the National Commission for Forensic Science (NCFS) in 2013. The NCFS was a deliberative body that catalyzed communication between nonforensic scientists, forensic scientists, and other stakeholders in the legal community. In 2017, despite continuing problems with forensic science, the Department of Justice terminated the NCFS. Just when forensic science needs the most support, it is getting the least. We urge the larger scientific community to come to the aid of our forensic colleagues by advocating for urgently needed research, testing, and financial support.

Why eyewitnesses fail.

Eyewitness identifications play an important role in the investigation and prosecution of crimes, but it is well known that eyewitnesses make mistakes, often with serious consequences. In light of these concerns, the National Academy of Sciences recently convened a panel of experts to undertake a comprehensive study of current practice and use of eyewitness testimony, with an eye toward understanding why identification errors occur and what can be done to prevent them. The work of this committee led to key findings and recommendations for reform, detailed in a consensus report entitled Identifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification In this review, I focus on the scientific issues that emerged from this study, along with brief discussions of how these issues led to specific recommendations for additional research, best practices for law enforcement, and use of eyewitness evidence by the courts.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration.

Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how die-off risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4 °C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources.

On the Mechanism of the Asymmetric Aldol Addition of Chiral N-Amino Cyclic Carbamate Hydrazones: Evidence of Non-Curtin-Hammett Behavior.

he mechanistic details of the aldol addition of N-amino cyclic carbamate (ACC) hydrazones is provided herein from both an experimental and computational perspective. When the transformation is carried out at room temperature the anti-aldol product is formed exclusively. Under these conditions the anti- and syn-aldolate intermediates are in equilibrium and the transformation is under thermodynamic control. The anti-aldolate that leads to the anti-aldol product was calculated to be 3.7 kcal mol-1 lower in energy at room temperature than that leading to the syn-aldol product, which sufficiently accounts for the exclusive formation of the anti-aldol product. When the reaction is conducted at -78 °C it is under kinetic control and favors formation of the syn-aldol addition product. In this case, it was found that a solvent separated aza-enolate anion and aldehyde form a σ-intermediate in which the lithium cation is coordinated to the aldehyde. The σ-intermediate collapses with a very small activation barrier to form the ß-alkoxy hydrazone intermediate. The chiral nonracemic lithium aza-enolate discriminates between the two diastereotopic faces of the pro-chiral aldehyde, and there is no rapid direct pathway that interconverts the two diastereomeric intermediates. Consequently, the reaction does not follow the Curtin-Hammett principle and the stereochemical outcome at low temperature instead depends on the relative energies of the two σ-intermediates.

Auditory modulation of spiking activity and local field potentials in area MT does not appear to underlie an audiovisual temporal illusion.

The timing of brief stationary sounds has been shown to alter the perceived speed of visual apparent motion (AM), presumably by altering the perceived timing of the individual frames of the AM stimuli and/or the duration of the interstimulus intervals (ISIs) between those frames. To investigate the neural correlates of this "temporal ventriloquism" illusion, we recorded spiking and local field potential (LFP) activity from the middle temporal area (area MT) in awake, fixating macaques. We found that the spiking activity of most MT neurons (but not the LFP) was tuned for the ISI/speed (these parameters covaried) of our AM stimuli but that auditory timing had no effect on that tuning. We next asked whether the predicted changes in perceived timing were reflected in the timing of neuronal responses to the individual frames of the AM stimuli. Although spiking dynamics were significantly, if weakly, affected by auditory timing in a minority of neurons, the timing of spike responses did not systematically mirror the predicted perception of stimuli. Conversely, the duration of LFP responses in ß- and γ-frequency bands was qualitatively consistent with human perceptual reports. We discovered, however, that LFP responses to auditory stimuli presented alone were robust and that responses to audiovisual stimuli were predicted by the linear sum of responses to auditory and visual stimuli presented individually. In conclusion, we find evidence of auditory input into area MT but not of the nonlinear audiovisual interactions we had hypothesized to underlie the illusion. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We utilized a set of audiovisual stimuli that elicit an illusion demonstrating "temporal ventriloquism" in visual motion and that have spatiotemporal intervals for which neurons within the middle temporal area are selective. We found evidence of auditory input into the middle temporal area but not of the nonlinear audiovisual interactions underlying this illusion. Our findings suggest that either the illusion was absent in our nonhuman primate subjects or the neuronal correlates of this illusion lie within other areas.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.

Sensory adaptation as optimal resource allocation.

Visual adaptation is expected to improve visual performance in the new environment. This expectation has been contradicted by evidence that adaptation sometimes decreases sensitivity for the adapting stimuli, and sometimes it changes sensitivity for stimuli very different from the adapting ones. We hypothesize that this pattern of results can be explained by a process that optimizes sensitivity for many stimuli, rather than changing sensitivity only for those stimuli whose statistics have changed. To test this hypothesis, we measured visual sensitivity across a broad range of spatiotemporal modulations of luminance, while varying the distribution of stimulus speeds. The manipulation of stimulus statistics caused a large-scale reorganization of visual sensitivity, forming the orderly pattern of sensitivity gains and losses. This pattern is predicted by a theory of distribution of receptive field characteristics in the visual system.

Nonhuman primate model of schizophrenia using a noninvasive EEG method.

There is growing evidence that impaired sensory-processing significantly contributes to the cognitive deficits found in schizophrenia. For example, the mismatch negativity (MMN) and P3a event-related potentials (ERPs), neurophysiological indices of sensory and cognitive function, are reduced in schizophrenia patients and may be used as biomarkers of the disease. In agreement with glutamatergic theories of schizophrenia, NMDA antagonists, such as ketamine, elicit many symptoms of schizophrenia when administered to normal subjects, including reductions in the MMN and the P3a. We sought to develop a nonhuman primate (NHP) model of schizophrenia based on NMDA-receptor blockade using subanesthetic administration of ketamine. This provided neurophysiological measures of sensory and cognitive function that were directly comparable to those recorded from humans. We first developed methods that allowed recording of ERPs from humans and rhesus macaques and found homologous MMN and P3a ERPs during an auditory oddball paradigm. We then investigated the effect of ketamine on these ERPs in macaques. As found in humans with schizophrenia, as well as in normal subjects given ketamine, we observed a significant decrease in amplitude of both ERPs. Our findings suggest the potential of a pharmacologically induced model of schizophrenia in NHPs that can pave the way for EEG-guided investigations into cellular mechanisms and therapies. Furthermore, given the established link between these ERPs, the glutamatergic system, and deficits in other neuropsychiatric disorders, our model can be used to investigate a wide range of pathologies.

Stimulus-dependent variability and noise correlations in cortical MT neurons.

Population codes assume that neural systems represent sensory inputs through the firing rates of populations of differently tuned neurons. However, trial-by-trial variability and noise correlations are known to affect the information capacity of neural codes. Although recent studies have shown that stimulus presentation reduces both variability and rate correlations with respect to their spontaneous level, possibly improving the encoding accuracy, whether these second order statistics are tuned is unknown. If so, second-order statistics could themselves carry information, rather than being invariably detrimental. Here we show that rate variability and noise correlation vary systematically with stimulus direction in directionally selective middle temporal (MT) neurons, leading to characteristic tuning curves. We show that such tuning emerges in a stochastic recurrent network, for a set of connectivity parameters that overlaps with a single-state scenario and multistability. Information theoretic analysis shows that second-order statistics carry information that can improve the accuracy of the population code.

Ring-whizzing in polyene-PtL2 complexes revisited.

Ring-whizzing was investigated by hybrid DFT methods in a number of polyene-Pt(diphosphinylethane) complexes. The polyenes included cyclopropenium(+), cyclobutadiene, cyclopentadienyl(+), hexafluorobenzene, cycloheptatrienyl(+), cyclooctatetraene, octafluorooctatetraene, 6-radialene, pentalene, phenalenium(+), naphthalene and octafluoronaphthalene. The HOMO of a d(10) ML2 group (with b2 symmetry) interacting with the LUMO of the polyene was used as a model to explain the occurrence of minima and maxima on the potential energy surface.

A terminal, fluxional η4-benzene complex with a thermally accessible triplet state is the primary photoproduct in the intercyclobutadiene haptotropism of (CpCo)phenylenes.

Low-temperature irradiation of linear [3]- and [4]phenylene cyclopentadienylcobalt complexes generates labile, fluxional η(4)-arene complexes, in which the metal resides on the terminal ring. Warming induces a haptotropic shift to the neighboring cyclobutadiene rings, followed by the previously reported intercyclobutadiene migration. NMR scrutiny of the primary photoproduct reveals a thermally accessible 16-electron cobalt η(2)-triplet species, which, according to DFT computations, is responsible for the rapid symmetrization of the molecules along their long axes. Calculations indicate that the entire haptotropic manifold along the phenylene frame is governed by dual-state reactivity of alternating 18-electron singlets and 16-electron triplets.

Optogenetics through windows on the brain in the nonhuman primate.

Optogenetics combines optics and genetics to control neuronal activity with cell-type specificity and millisecond temporal precision. Its use in model organisms such as rodents, Drosophila, and Caenorhabditis elegans is now well-established. However, application of this technology in nonhuman primates (NHPs) has been slow to develop. One key challenge has been the delivery of viruses and light to the brain through the thick dura mater of NHPs, which can only be penetrated with large-diameter devices that damage the brain. The opacity of the NHP dura prevents visualization of the underlying cortex, limiting the spatial precision of virus injections, electrophysiological recordings, and photostimulation. Here, we describe a new optogenetics approach in which the native dura is replaced with an optically transparent artificial dura. This artificial dura can be penetrated with fine glass micropipettes, enabling precisely targeted injections of virus into brain tissue with minimal damage to cortex. The expression of optogenetic agents can be monitored visually over time. Most critically, this optical window permits targeted, noninvasive photostimulation and concomitant measurements of neuronal activity via intrinsic signal imaging and electrophysiological recordings. We present results from both anesthetized-paralyzed (optical imaging) and awake-behaving NHPs (electrophysiology). The improvements over current methods made possible by the artificial dura should enable the widespread use of optogenetic tools in NHP research, a key step toward the development of therapies for neuropsychiatric and neurological diseases in humans.

Receptive field positions in area MT during slow eye movements.

Perceptual stability requires the integration of information across eye movements. We first tested the hypothesis that motion signals are integrated by neurons whose receptive fields (RFs) do not move with the eye but stay fixed in the world. Specifically, we measured the RF properties of neurons in the middle temporal area (MT) of macaques (Macaca mulatta) during the slow phase of optokinetic nystagmus. Using a novel method to estimate RF locations for both spikes and local field potentials, we found that the location on the retina that changed spike rates or local field potentials did not change with eye position; RFs moved with the eye. Second, we tested the hypothesis that neurons link information across eye positions by remapping the retinal location of their RFs to future locations. To test this, we compared RF locations during leftward and rightward slow phases of optokinetic nystagmus. We found no evidence for remapping during slow eye movements; the RF location was not affected by eye-movement direction. Together, our results show that RFs of MT neurons and the aggregate activity reflected in local field potentials are yoked to the eye during slow eye movements. This implies that individual MT neurons do not integrate sensory information from a single position in the world across eye movements. Future research will have to determine whether such integration, and the construction of perceptual stability, takes place in the form of a distributed population code in eye-centered visual cortex or is deferred to downstream areas.

Land-cover change and avian diversity in the conterminous United States.

Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land-cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land-cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed-effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land-cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.