RESUMEN
The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.
Asunto(s)
Hepacivirus/aislamiento & purificación , Hepatitis C Crónica/epidemiología , Hepatitis C Crónica/virología , Modelos Estadísticos , Viremia/epidemiología , Viremia/virología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Costo de Enfermedad , Femenino , Salud Global , Hepatitis C Crónica/mortalidad , Hepatitis C Crónica/terapia , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Análisis de Supervivencia , Viremia/mortalidad , Viremia/terapia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995).
Asunto(s)
Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Hepatitis C Crónica/epidemiología , Hepatitis C Crónica/prevención & control , Modelos Estadísticos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Asia/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Pruebas Diagnósticas de Rutina/métodos , Pruebas Diagnósticas de Rutina/estadística & datos numéricos , Utilización de Medicamentos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Hepatitis C Crónica/diagnóstico , Hepatitis C Crónica/terapia , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Trasplante de Hígado , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Medio Oriente/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.
Asunto(s)
Hepacivirus/aislamiento & purificación , Hepatitis C Crónica/epidemiología , Hepatitis C Crónica/virología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Genotipo , Salud Global , Hepacivirus/clasificación , Hepatitis C Crónica/diagnóstico , Hepatitis C Crónica/terapia , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Trasplante de Hígado , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
AIM: Comparing the efficacy of peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin with interferon alpha -2b plus ribavirin in Saudi patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) commonly infected with genotype 4. METHODS: A total of 96 patients with chronic HCV infection were randomly assigned to two treatment groups. Forty-eight patients received once weekly 100 microg of peginterferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin given orally 800 mg/day (peginterferon group). Another 48 patients received thrice weekly 3 million units of interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin 800 mg/day (interferon group). At the end of treatment (48 weeks) and sustained (72 weeks) biochemical and virologic responses were determined. RESULTS: In the peginterferon group, 70.8% (34/48) patients attained both biochemical and virologic responses at the end of the treatment as against 52.1% (25/48) patients in the interferon group. (P=0.09 for both). Similarly, sustained biochemical and virologic responses in the peginterferon group were attained in 52.1% (25/48) and 43.8% (21/48) patients as against 43.8% (21/48) and 29.2% (14/48) patients in the interferon group, respectively (P=0.54 and 0.20, respectively). The sustained virologic response rates in patients with genotype 4 were 42.9% (12/28) in the peginterferon group and 32.3% (10/31) in the interferon group (P=0.43). Patients in peginterferon group had higher, although statistically not significant adverse reactions. CONCLUSIONS: Saudi patients with chronic HCV attained a higher, although statistically not significant sustained virologic response with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin compared with interferon plus ribavirin.