Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Can objective parameters in optical coherence tomography be useful markers in the treatment and follow-up of type 1 and type 2 macular neovascularizations related to neovascular age-related macular degeneration?

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the responses of type 1 and type 2 macular neovascularizations (MNV) caused by neovascular type age-related macular degeneration (n-AMD) to intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatments using quantitative parameters determined by optical coherence tomography (OCT). Additionally, it was also intended to assess the connections between these quantitative parameters and changes in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and the number of intravitreal anti-VEGF injections required within a year. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In our retrospective and observational study, the data of 90 eyes of 90 patients diagnosed with n-AMD and treated with intravitreal anti-VEGF with the "Pro re nata" method were evaluated. Subtypes of existing MNVs were distinguished with previously taken optical coherence tomography angiography (OCTA) images. In spectral domain OCT examinations, central macular thickness (CMT) and central macular volume (CMV) values were recorded at baseline and 12th month. The number of intravitreal anti-VEGF injections during the 12 month follow-up period was also recorded for each patient. Obtained data were compared between MNV types. RESULTS: Of the n-AMD cases examined in the study, 56.66% had type 1 MNV and 43.34% had type 2 MNV. The mean baseline BCVA logMAR values in eyes with type 2 MNV (1.15 ± 0.43) were higher than those observed in eyes with type 1 MNV (0.76 ± 0.42) (p = 0.001). Similarly, mean baseline CMT and CMV values in eyes with type 2 MNV were higher than those observed in eyes with type 1 MNV (respectively 424.89 ± 49.46 µm vs. 341.39 ± 37.06 µm; 9.17 ± 0.89 µm3 vs. 8.49 ± 0.53 µm3; p < 0.05). After 12 months of treatment, logMAR values of BCVA (0.86 ± 0.42) in subjects with type 2 MNV were higher than those in subjects with type 1 MNV (0.57 ± 0.37) (p = 0.001). Mean CMT and CMV values at 12th month in subjects with type 2 MNV (379.11 ± 46.36 µm and 8.66 ± 0.79 µm3, respectively) were observed to be higher than those with type 1 MNV (296.95 ± 33.96 µm and 8.01 ± 0.52 mm3, respectively) (p < 0.05). In type 2 MNVs, positive correlations were observed between both baseline and 12th month BCVA logMAR values and baseline CMV (p < 0.05). Similarly, in type 2 MNVs, a positive correlation was observed between 12th month BCVA logMAR values and 12th month CMV (p < 0.05). The total number of intravitreal anti-VEGF injections at 12 months was similar in both groups (p = 0.851). CONCLUSION: In this study, in which we performed a subtype analysis of MNV cases, we observed that the visual function was worse at the beginning and the end of the 12th month, and the CMT and CMV values were higher in the type 2 MNV group compared to the type 1 MNV cases. In addition, we found significant correlations between BCVA logMAR values and CMV values in type 2 MNV cases. In the follow-up of these cases, CMT, which is a more widely used quantitative method, and CMV, which is a newer OCT measurement parameter, may be more useful in patient follow-up and evaluation of treatment efficacy, especially for type 2 MNV cases.

Using the Amsler Grid Test for Age-Related Macular Degeneration Screening.

Objectives: To evaluate the use of the Amsler grid test (AGT) in screening for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), one of the most common causes of blindness, in primary healthcare settings. Materials and Methods: The AGT was applied to 700 eyes of 355 people aged 50 and over who applied to a family health center in Ankara and had no eye complaints. The test was considered positive if the lines on the AGT card were seen as broken or curved, there was a difference in shape or size between the squares, or a color change or blurring was described in any area. An ophthalmologist was consulted if the AGT was positive in one or both eyes. Patients considered suitable by ophthalmologists were evaluated with optical coherence tomography. AGT results were compared with ophthalmologist examination and tomography findings in terms of AMD detection. Results: The AGT was positive in 97 (13.9%) and negative in 603 (86.1%) out of 700 eyes included in the study. A total of 184 eyes, 79 with a positive AGT and 105 eyes with a negative test, were evaluated by an ophthalmologist. As a result of examinations and tests performed by ophthalmologists, AMD was detected in a total of 67 eyes: 42 of 79 eyes with positive AGT and 25 of 105 eyes with negative AGT but referred to an ophthalmologist for different reasons. In our study, the AGT had 62.7% sensitivity and 68.4% specificity. Conclusion: The AGT is an inexpensive and easily applicable test. Although moderate sensitivity and specificity were found in our study; further studies are needed to evaluate the suitability of its use for AMD screening in primary care with limited facilities.

Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement. RESULTS: A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

A multi-centre longitudinal study analysing multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapy prescribing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset. METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use. RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.

Machine-learning-based prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis: An observational, international, multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking. METHODS: Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS. FINDINGS: Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history. CONCLUSIONS: Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network.

Background: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. Objective: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. Methods: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. Results: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006). Conclusion: Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.

Effects of the epiretinal membrane on the outcomes of intravitreal dexamethasone implantation for macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion / Os efeitos de uma membrana epirretiniana nos resultados da implantação de dexametasona intravítrea para edema macular secundário à oclusão de ramo da veia retiniana

ABSTRACT Purpose: To investigate the effects of epiretinal membrane formation on the clinical outcomes of intravitreal dexamethasone implantation for macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion. Methods: This retrospective interventional case series includes the treatment of naive patients with macular edema secondary to non-ischemic branch retinal vein occlusion who underwent intravitreal dexamethasone implantation. The patients were divided into two groups as follows: Group 1 (n=25), comprised of patients with macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion without epiretinal membrane, and Group 2 (n=16), comprised of patients with macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion with an epiretinal membrane. Corrected visual acuity, central macular thickness, and central macular volume values were measured before and after treatment. The clinical outcomes of the groups were compared. Results: Mean age and male-to-female ratio were similar between the two groups (p>0.05, for both). The baseline and final corrected visual acuity values, central macular thickness, and central macular volumes of the groups were similar (p>0.05, for all). All the parameters were significantly improved after intravitreal dexamethasone implantation treatment (p<0.001, for all). The changes in central macular thickness and volume were also similar (p>0.05, for both). The mean number of intravitreal dexamethasone implantations was 2.1 ± 1.0 (range, 1-4) in Group 1 and 3.0 ± 1.2 (range, 1-5) in Group 2 (p=0.043). Conclusion: Epiretinal membrane formation had no effects on the baseline and final clinical parameters, including corrected visual acuity and central macular thickness and volume. The only parameter affected by the presence of epiretinal membrane formation is the number of intravitreal dexamethasone implantations, a greater number of which is needed for macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion with an epiretinal membrane.

RESUMO Objetivo: Investigar os efeitos da formação de uma membrana epirretiniana nos resultados clínicos da implantação intravítrea de dexametasona para edema macular secundário à oclusão de um ramo da veia retiniana. Métodos: Esta série retrospectiva de casos intervencionais inclui o tratamento de indivíduos com edema macular secundário à oclusão não isquêmica de um ramo da veia retiniana, sem tratamento prévio e que foram submetidos a implantação intravítrea de dexametasona. Os indivíduos foram divididos em dois grupos: Grupo 1 (n=25), composto por indivíduos com edema macular secundário à oclusão de um ramo da veia retiniana sem a presença de uma membrana epirretiniana, e Grupo 2 (n=16), composto por indivíduos com edema macular secundário à oclusão de um ramo da veia retiniana com a presença de uma membrana epirretiniana. Os valores da acuidade visual corrigida, espessura macular central e volume macular central foram obtidos antes e após o tratamento. Os resultados clínicos dos grupos foram comparados. Resultados: A média de idade e a proporção entre homens e mulheres foram semelhantes nos dois grupos (p>0,05 para ambos os valores). Os valores iniciais e finais da acuidade visual corrigida, espessura macular central e volume macular central foram semelhantes nos dois grupos (p>0,05 para todos os valores). Todos os parâmetros melhoraram significativamente após o tratamento com implante de dexametasona intravítrea (p<0,001 para todos os parâmetros) e as alterações na espessura macular central e no volume macular central também foram semelhantes (p>0,05 para ambos os valores). O número médio de implantações intravítreas de dexametasona foi 2,1 ± 1,0 (faixa de 1-4) no Grupo 1 e 3,0 ± 1,2 (faixa de 1-5) no Grupo 2 (p=0,043). Conclusão: A formação de uma membrana epirretiniana não tem efeitos sobre os parâmetros clínicos iniciais e finais, incluindo a acuidade visual corrigida, a espessura macular central e o volume macular central. O único parâmetro afetado pela formação de uma membrana epirretiniana é o número de implantações intravítreas de dexametasona, sendo necessário um número maior de implantações em casos de edema macular secundário à oclusão de um ramo da veia retiniana com a presença de uma membrana epirretiniana.