Comparing panic alarm systems for high-risk domestic abuse victims: a randomised controlled trial on prevention and criminal justice system outcomes.

Background: The use of panic alarm systems for victims of domestic abuse is becoming increasingly popular. However, tests of these devices are rare. Consequently, it is presently unknown whether domestic abuse offenders are deterred by warning stickers informing them that a panic alarm system is installed on the premises, or whether alarm systems reduce domestic abuse recidivism. There is also a lack of data regarding whether adding an audio-recording feature to the panic alarm results in more prosecutions of domestic abuse offenders compared to standard panic alarm systems. Measuring the efficacy of warning stickers and audio recordings will enhance understanding of the overall effectiveness of panic alarm systems for domestic abuse. Methods: This study used a pre-test-post-test, control group design, in which 300 eligible high-risk domestic abuse victims in London, UK, were randomly allocated to either a standard panic alarm system or a panic alarm system with audio-recording capabilities and a red warning sticker on a durable, A6-size sign displayed at eye level at the entrance to the premises. Each sticker was well lit to ensure maximum visibility. The gain scores of multiple measures at 6 months prior and 6 months post-randomisation were used to assess the treatment effects (including the number of calls for service, recorded crimes, and harm score), and a negative binomial generalised linear model was utilised to estimate the likelihood of criminal charges for domestic abuse offenders in the two systems. Outcomes: Pre-post comparisons of recidivism suggested an overall reduction in both treatment arms, but there were no statistically significant differences between the two types of alarm systems across these crime measures. Nevertheless, the estimation model indicated a significant 57% increase in charges using the audio-recording alarm relative to the standard panic alarm system. Conclusions: Using deterrent stickers to warn domestic abuse offenders of panic alarm systems does not lead to a reduction in subsequent harm to victims. Compared to ordinary panic alarms for high-risk domestic abuse victims, audio-recording systems provide valuable evidence that increases subsequent charges, and thus, these systems should be explored further. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11292-022-09505-1.

Can routinely collected ambulance data about assaults contribute to reduction in community violence?

BACKGROUND: The 'law of spatiotemporal concentrations of events' introduced major preventative shifts in policing communities. 'Hotspots' are at the forefront of these developments yet somewhat understudied in emergency medicine. Furthermore, little is known about interagency 'data-crossover', despite some developments through the Cardiff Model. Can police-ED interagency data-sharing be used to reduce community-violence using a hotspots methodology? METHODS: 12-month (2012) descriptive study and analysis of spatiotemporal clusters of police and emergency calls for service using hotspots methodology and assessing the degree of incident overlap. 3775 violent crime incidents and 775 assault incidents analysed using spatiotemporal clustering with k-means++ algorithm and Spearman's rho. RESULTS: Spatiotemporal location of calls for services to the police and the ambulance service are equally highly concentrated in a small number of geographical areas, primarily within intra-agency hotspots (33% and 53%, respectively) but across agencies' hotspots as well (25% and 15%, respectively). Datasets are statistically correlated with one another at the 0.57 and 0.34 levels, with 50% overlap when adjusted for the number of hotspots. At least one in every two police hotspots does not have an ambulance hotspot overlapping with it, suggesting half of assault spatiotemporal concentrations are unknown to the police. Data further suggest that more severely injured patients, as estimated by transfer to hospital, tend to be injured in the places with the highest number of police-recorded crimes. CONCLUSIONS: A hotspots approach to sharing data circumvents the problem of disclosing person-identifiable data between different agencies. Practically, at least half of ambulance hotspots are unknown to the police; if causal, it suggests that data sharing leads to both reduced community violence by way of prevention (such as through anticipatory patrols or problem-oriented policing), particularly of more severe assaults, and improved efficiency of resource deployment.

Where can offenders be found when they are not committing crimes? A cross-sectional survey of British police officers on non-crime locations.

To date, the bulk of research on place and crime has concentrated on crime scene locations and home addresses of both victims and perpetrators. Beyond these locations, less is known about where offenders can be found during regular, non-criminal activity. These 'non-crime locations' provide information about offenders' lifestyles, their relationships with co-offenders, their preferred spots, and the places beyond the spatiotemporal boundaries of the crime where they may plan, manage, or deal with the aftermath of their behaviour. Yet there is a lack of systematic evidence, with the available research relying on local ethnographic designs, small samples or both, as access to such data was limited. This study utilises a novel approach by relying on the professional experience of intelligence police officers assigned to deal with serious and organised crime in the West Midlands County of the United Kingdom to determine the whereabouts of three types of non-crime locations: (a) hangout spots, (b) recruitment spots and (c) contraband hideout spots. Results suggest that offenders frequently visit gyms, specific restaurants, or private residences (not unlike locations where normative people hang out), and new members can be recruited anywhere. Drugs and firearms are strategically hidden near vulnerable persons. According to police officers, offenders are unconcerned by surveillance in these spots and choose venues not usually owned by criminal groups. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications are discussed.

Protocol: The effect of restorative justice interventions for young people on offending and reoffending: A systematic review.

This is the protocol for a Campbell systematic review. The objectives are as follows. The primary aim of this mixed methods review is to synthesise the available evidence regarding the effectiveness of restorative justice interventions (RJIs) for reducing offending and reoffending outcomes in children and young people. We are also particularly interested in the impact of RJIs on children and young peoples' violent offending and violent reoffending. A second aim of the review is to examine whether the magnitude of effectiveness of RJIs may be influenced by study characteristics such as the population (e.g., age, ethnicity, or sex), the form of intervention (e.g., face-to-face mediation compared to family group conferencing), the place of delivery of the intervention (e.g., in independent office, in court), implementation (e.g., trained facilitators, dose, fidelity) and methodology (e.g., randomised controlled trial). The third aim of the review is to synthesise the qualitative evidence about RJ to develop a better contextual understanding of how these programmes may work and to elucidate factors that might increase the efficacy and implementation of RJ interventions. The specific research questions this systematic review aims to address are: (1) Do RJ interventions reduce children and young people's involvement in offending or reoffending relative to a comparison group? [RQ1]. (2) Is there variation in the impact of different RJ approaches on young people's involvement in offending or reoffending? [RQ2]. (3) Is there variation in the impact of RJIs on children and young people's offending or reoffending depending on the characteristics of the participants taking part in the RJI (e.g., sex, age, ethnicity)? [RQ3]. (4) What characteristics of RJIs, influence the effectiveness of RJIs for children and young people's offending and reoffending? [RQ4]. (5) What are the most notable barriers and facilitators, as reported by participants (e.g., the victims, children/young people, or mediators who have taken part in an evaluation of an RJI, or those children or young people who were meant to take part in an evaluation but ultimately did not), to the implementation of RJIs to reduce later offending or reoffending? [RQ5].

External validation of the Cardiff model of information sharing to reduce community violence: natural experiment.

BACKGROUND: Community violence is a substantial problem for the NHS. Information sharing of emergency department data with community safety partnerships (CSP) has been associated with substantial reductions in assault attendances in emergency departments supported by academic institutions. We sought to validate these findings in a setting not supported by a public health or academic structure. METHODS: We instituted anonymous data sharing with the police to reduce community violence, and increased involvement with the local CSP. We measured the effectiveness of this approach with routinely collected data at the emergency department and the police. We used police data from 2009, and emergency department data from 2000. RESULTS: Initially, the number of assault patients requiring emergency department treatment rose after we initiated data sharing. After improving the data flows, the number of assault patients fell back to the predata-sharing level. There was no change in the number of hospital admissions during the study period. There were decreases in the numbers of violent crimes against the person, with and without injury, recorded by the police. CONCLUSIONS: We have successfully implemented data sharing in our institution without the support of an academic institution. This has been associated with reductions in violent crime, but it is not clear whether this association is causal.

Using machine learning to forecast domestic homicide via police data and super learning.

We explore the feasibility of using machine learning on a police dataset to forecast domestic homicides. Existing forecasting instruments based on ordinary statistical instruments focus on non-fatal revictimization, produce outputs with limited predictive validity, or both. We implement a "super learner," a machine learning paradigm that incorporates roughly a dozen machine learning models to increase the recall and AUC of forecasting using any one model. We purposely incorporate police records only, rather than multiple data sources, to illustrate the practice utility of the super learner, as additional datasets are often unavailable due to confidentiality considerations. Using London Metropolitan Police Service data, our model outperforms all extant domestic homicide forecasting tools: the super learner detects 77.64% of homicides, with a precision score of 18.61% and a 71.04% Area Under the Curve (AUC), which, collectively and severely, are assessed as "excellent." Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.

The role of DNA in criminal indictments in Israel.

In their investigations of criminal cases, law enforcement agencies rely heavily on forensic evidence. Numerous studies have examined the scientific and technological advancements of DNA testing, but little evidence exists on how the availability of DNA evidence influences prosecutors' decisions to move cases forward in the criminal justice system. We created a new database by juxtaposing data from the Forensics Division of the Israel Police, which recorded the presence (or not) of DNA profiles in criminal cases (n = 9862), and data on the indictment decision for each case (2008-2019). Rates of indictments are computed for each case, and trend lines are used to present variations in the rates of indictment decisions with and without DNA profiles. Approximately 15% of all criminal cases without DNA presented to the prosecutor's office are subsequently prosecuted, compared with nearly 55% of cases with DNA profiles. The presence of DNA evidence influences the prosecutor's decision to move a case forward in the criminal justice system. Utilizing a scientific approach to prosecute offenders is a welcome development; however, DNA evidence is not infallible, and caution must be exercised in regard to DNA's overuse in the legal system.

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime.

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Victims, offenders and victim-offender overlaps of knife crime: A social network analysis approach using police records.

Knife crime is a source of concern for the police in England and Wales, however little published research exists on this crime type. Who are the offenders who use knives to commit crime, when and why? Who are their victims, and is there a victim-offender overlap? What is the social network formation for people who are exposed to knife crime? Using a multidimensional approach, our aim is to answer these questions about one of England and Wales' largest jurisdictions: Thames Valley. We first provide a state-of-the-art narrative review of the knife crime literature, followed by an analysis of population-level data on central tendency and dispersion of knife crimes reported to the police (2015-2019), on offences, offenders, victims, victim-offender overlaps and gang-related assaults. Social network analysis was used to explore the formations of offender-victim networks. Our findings show that knife crime represents a small proportion of crime (1.86%) and is associated largely with violence offenses. 16-34 year-old white males are at greatest risk of being the victims, offenders or victim-offenders of knife crime, with similar relative risks between these three categories. Both knife offenders and victims are likely to have a criminal record. Knife crimes are usually not gang-related (less than 20%), and experienced mostly between strangers, with the altercation often a non-retaliatory 'one-off event'. Even gang-related knife crimes do not follow 'tit-for-tat' relationships-except when the individuals involved have extensive offending histories and then are likely to retaliate instantaneously. We conclude that while rare, an incident of knife crime remains predicable, as a substantial ratio of offenders and victims of future knife crime can be found in police records. Prevention strategies should not be focused on gang-related criminals, but on either prolific violent offenders or repeat victims who are known to the police-and therefore more susceptible to knife crime exposure.

Publisher Correction: A randomized controlled trial of restorative justice-informed treatment for domestic violence crimes.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A randomized controlled trial of restorative justice-informed treatment for domestic violence crimes.

Recent innovation in domestic violence (DV) treatment suggests that when a batterer intervention programme (BIP) is combined with clinical elements, including motivational or readiness to change strategies, subsequent incidents of violence can be reduced. Prompted by previous research on restorative justice in reducing recidivism in crimes other than DV, a randomized controlled trial in Utah, USA, compared a typical BIP with one that included restorative justice-informed treatment, called circles of peace (CP). The findings reveal that the 'hybrid' BIP-plus-CP resulted in statistically significant reductions in both new arrests (53%) and crime severity scores (52%) for all offences, including DV, over a 24-month period. We conclude that a hybrid BIP-plus-CP programme should be considered as a viable treatment option for DV offenders. Implications for DV victims are discussed, as are the study's limitations, including the fact that some elements typical of restorative justice programmes could not be attained in this DV context.

'Lowering the threshold of effective deterrence'-Testing the effect of private security agents in public spaces on crime: A randomized controlled trial in a mass transit system.

Supplementing local police forces is a burgeoning multibillion-dollar private security industry. Millions of formal surveillance agents in public settings are tasked to act as preventative guardians, as their high visibility presence is hypothesized to create a deterrent threat to potential offenders. Yet, rigorous evidence is lacking. We randomly assigned all train stations in the South West of England that experienced crime into treatment and controls conditions over a six-month period. Treatment consisted of directed patrol by uniformed, unarmed security agents. Hand-held trackers on every agent yielded precise measurements of all patrol time in the stations. Count-based regression models, estimated marginal means and odds-ratios are used to assess the effect of these patrols on crimes reported to the police by victims, as well as new crimes detected by police officers. Outcomes are measured at both specified target locations to which security guards were instructed to attend, as well as at the entire station complexes. Analyses show that 41% more patrol visits and 29% more minutes spent by security agents at treatment compared to control stations led to a significant 16% reduction in victim-generated crimes at the entirety of the stations' complexes, with a 49% increase in police-generated detections at the target locations. The findings illustrate the efficacy of private policing for crime prevention theory.