Weight change and risk of incident type 2 diabetes: short, medium and long-term follow-up in tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of obesity and Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the Middle East/West Asia region, the effect of weight change on the development of T2DM is poorly addressed. Therefore, we aimed to assess the impact of 3-year body weight change on incident of T2DM over 3-, 6-, and 9-year periods among Iranian adults. METHODS: A total of 6930 participants (men = 2567) aged ≥ 20 years free of T2DM or cancer at baseline were included. Weight measurements were taken at baseline (2002-2005) and approximately 3 years later. Participants were categorized based on their weight change ratio into ≥ 5% loss, stable (± 5%), and ≥ 5% gain. Generalized estimating equations (GEE), adjusted with age, sex, education levels, baseline measurements of fasting plasma glucose, weight, waist circumference, triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, family history of diabetes, current smoker, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular disease were applied to estimate the Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of weight change categories for incident T2DM, considering stable weight as a reference. RESULTS: During median follow-ups of 3-, 6-, and 9-year, 295, 505, and 748 cases of T2DM occurred, respectively. Weight gain of ≥ 5%, as compared to stable weight group (± 5%), was associated with increased T2DM risk, with ORs of 1.58 (95% CI 1.16-2.14), 1.76 (1.41-2.20), and 1.70 (1.40-2.05) for the 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-ups, respectively, in multivariable analysis; corresponding values for weight loss ≥ 5% were 0.48 (0.29-0.80), 0.57 (0.40-0.81), and 0.51 (0.38-0.68), respectively. This association persisted even after adjusting for attained weight. Subgroup analysis showed consistent associations across age, gender, and body mass index categories. CONCLUSION: Weight gain and loss of ≥ 5% were associated with increased and decreased risks of incident T2DM, respectively, regardless of attained weight. This association was consistent over various follow-up durations among the Iranian population as recommended by guidelines.

External validation of the American prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in the Iranian population.

BACKGROUND: The primary aim of the present study was to validate the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) model for incident Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Iran. METHODS: Present study was a prospective cohort study on 1835 population aged ≥ 45 years from Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS).The predictors of REGARDS model based on Bayesian hierarchical techniques included age, sex, race, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose. For external validation, the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, Youden's index, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were assessed. RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up 15.3% experienced T2DM. The model showed acceptable discrimination (AUC (95%CI): 0.79 (0.76-0.82)), and good calibration. Based on the highest Youden's index the suggested cut-point for the REGARDS probability would be ≥ 13% which yielded a sensitivity of 77.2%, specificity 66.8%, NPV 94.2%, and PPV 29.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do support that the REGARDS model is a valid tool for incident T2DM in the Iranian population. Moreover, the probability value higher than the 13% cut-off point is stated to be significant for identifying those with incident T2DM.

Prevalence and metabolic determinants of abnormal alanine aminotransferase: A cross-sectional study of Iranian adults, 2018-2022.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is an enzyme whose activity became the principal biomarker for liver disease. In the current study, we aimed to determine the prevalence of abnormal ALT, as a surrogate of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its associated determinants using different criteria among Tehranian subjects between 2018 and 2022. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study on 5676 Tehranian individuals aged 20-70 years. The weighted prevalence of abnormal ALT was calculated using both the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the United States (US-NHANCE; ALT ≥30 U/L for females and ≥40 U/L for males) and the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) guideline (ALT >25 U/L for females, and >33 U/L for males) thresholds. Moreover, uni/multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to find the determinants of abnormal ALT. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of abnormal ALT was 12.8% (7.6% females and 18% males) and 22.5% (17.7% females and 27.3% males) based on US-NHANCE and ACG criteria, respectively. Our results showed every decade increase in age decreased the risk of abnormal ALT by 32%. We also found that generally male gender, being overweight/obese, central adiposity, TG ≥6.9 mmol/L, non-HDL-C ≥3.37 mmol/L, lipid-lowering medications, pre-diabetes/T2DM were associated with abnormal ALT using different cutoff points. Moreover, among men resting tachycardia (≥90 beats per min), hypertension, and females past-smoker were also found as other determinants of abnormal ALT. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of abnormal ALT among non-elderly Iranian adults, especially among men, necessitates immediate multifaceted strategies by policymakers to prevent potential complications caused by NAFLD.

xsGastrointestinal symptoms are associated with a lower risk of hospitalization and mortality and Outcomes in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to find the association between gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory symptoms with mortality and hospitalization among COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We analyzed the registered data of COVID-19 patients from February 20, 2020, to March 10, 2021. Depending on the patients' disease symptoms, four categories were defined: patients with only GI symptoms, patients with only respiratory symptoms, patients with both symptoms, and patients with other symptoms. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of groups with outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 42,964 patients from 23 hospitals were included, of which 26.5% patients had at least one or more GI symptoms. Of total patients, 51.58% patients were hospitalized among which 22.8% had at least one or more GI symptoms. GI symptoms significantly decreased the odds of mortality (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56-0.92), but respiratory symptoms increased the odds for mortality (1.36: 1.24-1.50), compared with patients with other symptoms. Moreover, the odds ratio of patients who had both respiratory and GI symptoms increased (1.52: 1.31-1.78) compared with patients with other symptoms. The same results were observed for hospitalization as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that the presence of GI symptoms in COVID-19 at the time of admission was associated with a lower odds of hospitalization and mortality; however, this association had higher odds for respiratory symptoms.

Prevalence of short and long sleep duration: Ravansar NonCommunicable Disease (RaNCD) cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of short and long sleep duration varies in different countries and changes over time. There are limited studies on Iranians' sleep duration, and we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of short and long sleep duration and associated factors among people living in Kermanshah, Iran. METHODS: This population-based cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2014 and February 2017. Data was collected from 10,025 adults aged 35 to 65 years using census sampling, and we evaluated the short and long sleep duration (≤ 6 and ≥ 9 h, respectively) and its relation with the socio-demographic factors and health-related status of the participants. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 48.1 years (standard deviation = 8.2), and 47.4% of participants were male. Of our participants, 11.6% had short, and 21.9% had long sleep duration. Age ≥ 50 years, female gender, being single, mobile use for longer than 8 h per day, working in night shifts, moderate and good levels of physical activity, BMI ≥ 30, past smoking, and alcohol use were associated with short sleep duration (P < 0.05). Female gender and living in rural areas were associated with long sleep duration (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the Ravansar population, short and long sleep duration are prevalent, with long sleep duration having higher prevalence. People at risk, such as night shift workers, as well as modifiable factors, such as mobile phone use, can be targeted with interventions to improve sleep hygiene.

The risk and added values of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk enhancers on prediction of cardiovascular events: Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: In 2013 American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association released a guideline on the management of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) including a composite of death from CVD, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke (hard CVD). This guideline recommended a risk score that was calculated using pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE). The guideline was updated in 2018/2019 and further risk discussion was suggested for deciding whether to continue or initiate statin therapy among non-diabetic individuals with ASCVD-PCE score ranged 5-20%. They recommended a risk discussion with considering risk enhancing factors (ASCVD-REFs) including family history of premature CVD, chronic kidney disease, triglycerides ≥ 175 mg/dl, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≥ 160 mg/dl, metabolic syndrome (Mets), and for women premature menopause, and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). In the current study, we aimed to examine the predictability of recommended ASCVD-REFs on incident hard CVD in non-diabetic individuals with LDL-C 70-189 mg/dl, with ASCVD-PCE risk 5-20% during 10 and 15-year follow-up. METHODS: Among a total of 3546 non-diabetic individuals aged 40-75 years, after excluding those with ASCVD-PCE score < 5% and ≥ 20% (n = 2342), 1204 individuals (women = 332) were included. The univariable and multivariable (further adjusted for ASCVD-PCE) Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the association of each potential ASCVD-REFs with hard CVD. Additionnaly, the role of different components of Mets and a history of gestational diabetes (GDM)/macrosomia was also examined. The predictive ability of each significant ASCVD-REFs, then was evaluated by the discrimination accuracy and risk reclassification index. RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up, 73 hard CVD events occurred. Although in univariable analysis, high blood pressure (BP) component of Mets, GDM/macrosomia, and HDP remained as significant ASCVD-REFs, in the multivariable analysis, only the history of HDP (5.35 (1.22-23.38)) and GDM/macrosomia (3.18 (1.05-9.65)) showed independent risks. During the 15-year follow-up, Mets (1.47 (1.05-2.06)) and its components of high waist circumference (1.40 (1.0-1.95)) and high BP (1.52 (1.07-2.15)) significantly increased the risk. These ASCVD-REFs did not improve discrimination or predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: In a decade follow-up, only conditions specific for women and in longer follow-up, the presence of Mets perse, and its components of high WC and high BP were shown as significant ASCVD-REFs.

Long term prognostic implication of newly detected abnormal glucose tolerance among patients with stable cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h post challenge plasma glucose (2 h-PCPG), whether as continuous or categorical variables, are associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes; however, their role among patients with existing CVD is a matter of debate. We aimed to evaluate associations of different glucose intolerance states with recurrent CVD and incident diabetes among subjects with previous CVD. METHODS: From a prospective population-based cohort, 408 Iranians aged ≥ 30 years, with history of CVD and without known diabetes were included. Associations of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), newly diagnosed diabetes (NDM) with outcomes of interest were determined by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Furthermore, FPG and 2 h-PCPG were entered as continuous variables. RESULTS: Over a decade of follow-up, 220 CVD events including 89 hard events (death, myocardial infarction and stroke) occurred. Regarding prediabetes, only IFG-ADA was associated with increased risk of hard CVD [hazard ratio(HR), 95%CI: 1.62,1.03-2.57] in the age-sex adjusted model. In patients with NDM, those with FPG ≥ 7 mmol/L were at higher risk of incident CVD/coronary heart disease(CHD) and their related hard outcomes (HR ranged from 1.89 to 2.84, all P < 0.05). Moreover, those with 2 h-PCPG ≥ 11.1 mmol/L had significant higher risk of CVD (1.46,1.02-2.11), CHD (1.46,1.00-2.15) and hard CHD (1.95:0.99-3.85, P = 0.05). In the fully adjusted model, each 1 SD increase in FPG was associated with 20, 27, 15 and 25% higher risk of CVD, hard CVD, CHD and hard CHD, respectively; moreover each 1 SD higher 2 h-PCPG was associated with 21% and 16% higher risk of CVD, and CHD, respectively. Among individuals free of diabetes at baseline (n = 361), IFG-ADA, IFG-WHO and IGT were significantly associated with incident diabetes (all P < 0.05); significant associations were also found for FPG and 2 h-PCPG as continuous variables (all HRs for 1-SD increase > 2, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Among subjects with stable CVD, NDM whether as high FPG or 2 h-PCPG, but not pre-diabetes status was significantly associated with CVD/CHD and related hard outcomes.

Macrosomia is a risk factor for incident maternal chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and macrosomia are associated with several adverse outcomes including diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases, however, the relationship between GDM/macrosomia with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a matter of debate. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the history of macrosomia with or without GDM and incident maternal CKD. METHODS: The study population includes 2669 women aged 18-50 years without known diabetes mellitus and CKD from participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. The study population was categorized into 3 groups; group 1: GDM/macrosomia and without diabetes mellitus (n = 204), group 2: newly diagnosed incident diabetes mellitus (NDM) in the presence or abcence of GDM/Macrosomia (n = 113), and, group 3: the reference group including women without prior history of GDM/macrosomia and free of NDM (n = 2352). CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for baseline values of age, body mass index, waist circumference, parity numbers, smoking, educational level, gestational hypertension, eGFR, systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP, respectively), anti-hypertensive medication, and family history of diabetes mellitus was applied for data analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.9 years, 613 incident CKD cases were identified. The multivariable hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) on GDM/macrosomia group was [1.32 (1.02-1.72)]; the risk was more prominent among non-hypertensive women [1.41 (1.07-1.85); P for interaction: 0.046]. Moreover, the history of macrosomia alone also showed a significant risk [1.36 (1.04-1.78)]; however, history of GDM alone did not have a significant risk [0.92 (0.34-2.46)]. Age, current smoking, eGFR, and SBP remained as independent risk factors for incident CKD. CONCLUSIONS: A history of GDM/macrosomia or macrosomia alone, independent of subsequent diabetes mellitus was associated with significant risk for incident maternal CKD. Pregnancy may provide a unique situation to identify high-risk women at risk for CKD that could benefit from regular monitoring of kidney function and providing risk modifying strategies.

Number of parity/live birth(s) and cardiovascular disease among Iranian women and men: results of over 15 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Most previous studies conducted in non-Middle Eastern populations have suggested that an increase in the number of parity/live birth(s) leads to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, although their findings were inconclusive on this issue for both sexes. Biologic and socioeconomic pathways were suggested to explain this association. We studied this issue among urban Iranian men and women. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, which included 3929 women and 2571 men aged ≥30 years, data for the number of parity/live birth(s) were obtained by a standard questionnaire. Participants were then annually followed for CVD events. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the number of parity/live birth(s) and other traditional CVD risk factors. RESULTS: During more than 15 years of follow-up, 456 and 524 CVD events have occurred among women and men, respectively. Among women, a J-shaped association was found between the number of live births and incident CVD with the lowest risk for women with two live births. Among women in multivariable analyses, each unit increase in parity had a HR of 1.05 (CI: 1.01-1.10), and having ≥4 parity was associated with a HR of 1.86 (0.97-3.56, p-value = 0.061). Among men, in comparison with participants who had 1 child, multivariable HRs of having 2, 3, and ≥ 4 children were 1.97 (1.24-3.12), 2.08 (1.31-3.31), and 2.08 (1.30-3.34), respectively. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, the current study is the first report on this issue in the Middle East and North Africa region, a region with a high burden of CVD. It can now be suggested that the number of parity/live birth(s) is linked to CVD among the Iranian population, with this issue being more prominent among men. Further research is needed to support our results and clarify the pathways between the number of parity/live birth(s) and CVD development among Iranian populations by considering potential risk factors, especially psycho-socio-economic risk factors.

The association of parity/live birth number with incident type 2 diabetes among women: over 15 years of follow-up in The Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

BACKGROUND: Childbearing may increase the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in mothers. However, the issue is not clear completely and not investigated in the Middle East, a region with a high burden of T2DM. In the current study, we examined the association of parity/live birth number with incident T2DM among Iranian women. METHODS: The study population included 2552 women aged 30-65 years recruited in 1999-2001 and were followed for incident T2DM by 3-year intervals. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the parity/live birth number for incident T2DM. Parity number was defined as the number of live childbirth (number of live birth) plus the number of stillbirth (defined as birth of an infant that died after the 20th week of pregnancy in the uterus). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 15.4 years, 557 incident T2DM cases have occurred. After adjustment for potential T2DM risk factors and reproductive factors, each additional parity caused a 9% higher risk for incident T2DM. Moreover, compared to women with one parity, those with 3 and ≥ 4 parity had HRs of 1.73 [95% CI: 1.06-2.83] and 2.23 [1.36-3.65], respectively. After further adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, although the HRs were attenuated prominently, parity ≥ 4 was associated with significantly higher risk (HR: 1.72 [1.05-2.83]); even after further adjustment for triglycerides (TG)/ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), the risk remained marginally significant (HR: 1.64 [1.00-2.70; P value: 0.051]). For the number of live birth, the results were also similar. Moreover, in a sensitivity analysis, when we considered BMI change during follow-up as another covariate, generally, the effect sizes did not change; the trend of HRs across categories of parity number remained marginally significant (P value: 0.064). CONCLUSIONS: During a long-term follow-up, after adjustment for potential T2DM risk factors, reproductive factors, obesity indices, and TG/HDL-C (insulin resistance surrogate), we demonstrated that higher parity/live birth numbers could be associated with increased risk of T2DM development among Iranian women. Moreover, even after further adjustment for BMI change, the suggestive higher risk was still found.

The association between body mass index and risk of obstructive sleep apnea among patients with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Although several studies show a positive association between body mass index (BMI) and a higher risk of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the general population, there are limited data on that in patients living with HIV (PLHIV). The objective of the current study is to determine the prevalence of high risk for OSA and the association between BMI and OSA in PLHIV. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted on 316 confirmed HIV cases aged ≥ 18 years who attended consulting centers in Tehran during 2019. For the diagnosis of OSA we used the Persian version of the modified Berlin questionnaire that includes ten questions broken down into three categories. A high risk for breathing problems was defined if the total score is ≥ 2. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between BMI and OSA risk groups. RESULTS: Among PLHIV, 52.1% of men and 41.6% of women were considered as high risk for breathing problems during sleep at the time of the study. Patients with a higher risk for breathing problems had significantly higher BMI levels compared to those categorized as low-risk levels (25.2 vs. 24.3 kg/m2). Each unit increase in the BMI increased the odds of being high risk for OSA by 6% in the multivariable model. (odds ratio [OR]: 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06: 1.01-1.13). Considering BMI categories, compared to the normal weight, being obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) increased the high risk for OSA (OR [95% CI]: 2.54 [1.10-5.89]). CONCLUSION: We observed a significant association between general obesity and prevalence of OSA among PLHIV.

External validation of the European risk assessment tool for chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in a Middle Eastern population.

BACKGROUND: High burden of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been reported in the Middle East and North Africa region. We aimed to externally validate a non-laboratory risk assessment tool for the prediction of the chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in the Iranian population. METHODS: The predictors included age, body mass index, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive medications, current smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes. For external validation of the model in the Tehran lipids and glucose study (TLGS), the Area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test were performed for discrimination and calibration, respectively. RESULTS: Among 1310 men and 1960 women aged 28-85 years, 29.5% and 47.4% experienced chronic cardio-metabolic disorders during the 6 and 9-year follow-up, respectively. The model showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75) for men and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.76) for women. The calibration of the model was good for both genders (min HL P = 0.5). Considering separate outcomes, AUC was highest for CKD (0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79)) and lowest for T2DM (0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.69)), in men. As for women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86)) and lowest for T2DM (0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.73)). The 9-year follow-up demonstrated almost similar performances compared to the 6-year follow-up. Using Cox regression in place of logistic multivariable analysis, model's discrimination and calibration were reduced for prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders; the issue which had more effect on the prediction of incident CKD among women. Moreover, adding data of educational levels and marital status did not improve, the discrimination and calibration in the enhanced model. CONCLUSION: This model showed acceptable discrimination and good calibration for risk prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in short and long-term follow-up in the Iranian population.

Blood pressure components and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality events among Iranian adults with chronic kidney disease during over a decade long follow-up: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To explore the association between systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP respectively) and pulse pressure (PP) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality events among Iranian patients with prevalent CKD. METHODS: Patients [n = 1448, mean age: 60.9 (9.9) years] defined as those with estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, were followed from 31 January 1999 to 20 March 2014. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were applied to examine the associations between different components of BP with outcomes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.9 years, 305 all-cause mortality and 317 (100 fatal) CVD events (among those free from CVD, n = 1232) occurred. For CVD and CV-mortality, SBP and PP showed a linear relationship, while a U-shaped relationship for DBP was observed with all outcomes. Considering 120 ≤ SBP < 130 as reference, SBP ≥ 140 mmHg was associated with the highest hazard ratio (HR) for CVD [1.68 (1.2-2.34)], all-cause [1.72 (1.19-2.48)], and CV-mortality events [2.21 (1.16-4.22)]. Regarding DBP, compared with 80 ≤ DBP < 85 as reference, the level of ≥ 85 mmHg increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality events; furthermore, DBP < 80 mmHg was associated with significant HR for CVD events [1.55 (1.08-2.24)], all-cause [1.68 (1.13-2.5)] and CV-mortality events [3.0 (1.17-7.7)]. Considering PP, the highest HR was seen in participants in the 4th quartile for all outcomes of interest; HRs for CVD events [1.92 (1.33-2.78)], all-cause [1.71 (1.11-2.63)] and CV-mortality events [2.22 (1.06-4.64)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CKD, the lowest risk of all-cause and CV-mortality as well as incident CVD was observed in those with SBP < 140, 80 ≤ DBP < 85 and PP < 64 mmHg.

Predictors of early adulthood hypertension during adolescence: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Some longitudinal studies have shown that blood pressure tracks from adolescence to adulthood, yet there is limited evidence regarding the predictive factors of adulthood hypertension during adolescence. This study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) to investigate the role of some factors in adolescence, measured in the first examination (1999-2001), to predict adulthood hypertension in the 4th examination (2009-2011). METHODS: Overall, 1579 subjects, aged 10-19 years, were used for the analysis of the current study. Mean age (SD) of participants at the baseline was 14.2 (2.5) years and 55% of them were female. A forward stepwise approach (p-value <0.2 for enter and >0.05 for removal) was considered to keep significant covariates among common variables including gender, body mass index, waist circumference, wrist and hip circumferences, fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol (TC), systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Variance inflation factor (VIF) showed some multicollinearity for anthropometric variables (VIFs between 3.5 and 10). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that gender, blood pressure, wrist circumference and total cholesterol in adolescents are important predictors for adulthood hypertension. RESULTS: The risk increased by 4% and 39% per each 10 mmHg and 1 mmol/L increase in SBP/DBP and TC, respectively; additionally, females had a 70% lower risk. Among anthropometric variables, wrist circumference remained in the model, with 50% per centimeter increase in the risk of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Wrist circumferences and TC had significant roles in predicting hypertension through adolescence to adulthood.

The association between changes in blood pressure components and incident cardiovascular diseases.

PURPOSE: To determine the association of changes in blood pressure (BP) components between baseline examination (1999-2001) and a second visit (2002-2005) with incident cardiovascular diseases (CVD). METHODS: In 3569 (2048 female) Iranian subjects ≥30 y, systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) were evaluated in two consecutive visits. Subjects were then followed for cardiovascular events. Multivariate sex-adjusted Cox Proportional-Hazards models were built for each BP component's change, and further adjusted for baseline BP values, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and their changes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 6.09 years after the second examination, 303 CVD cases occurred. A 1 SD increase in systolic BP, diastolic BP and MAP were significantly associated with 21%, 22%, and 95% increased CVD risk after adjustments for baseline values of BP components and other common risk factors (all p-values <0.05). Importantly, diastolic BP change resisted after further adjustment with systolic BP change (hazard ratio 1.21, CI 95% 1.05-1.39). PP change showed no significant association with CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In a middle-aged population, three-year rises in systolic BP, diastolic BP, MAP, but not PP were associated with increased incident CVD. The significant association between diastolic BP change and CVD was shown independent of systolic BP change.

Added value of total serum nitrate/nitrite for prediction of cardiovascular disease in middle east caucasian residents in Tehran.

Data on the association between serum nitrate/nitrite and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is controversial; the aim of this study was to examine the potential utility of serum nitrate/nitrite in prediction of CVD. A total of 2443 adult participants, free from CVD at baseline were included. The probability of developing CVD was estimated by incorporating traditional CVD risk factors into a logistic regression model in the presence of serum nitrate/nitrite. The probability of CVD was calculated using Ln-transformed CVD risk factors as a covariate in the presence of Ln-transformed nitrate/nitrite in the final model. The added value of nitrate/nitrite was estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the net reclassification index (NRI). During follow-up, 169 events occurred. The multivariate odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for each 1 unit of increase in the Ln-transformed traditional risk factors and Ln-transformed nitrate/nitrite, were 3.20 (2.67-3.84) and 1.35 (1.01-1.80) for incident CVD, respectively. The areas under the curves of discrimination for models with and without nitrate/nitrite were not significantly different; however, incorporating nitrate/nitrite to the traditional CVD risk model can help appropriately reclassify over 6% of individuals at risk. In conclusion, serum nitrate/nitrite levels were independently associated with incident CVD. Measurement of serum nitrate/nitrite provided information beyond individual data on risk factors and improved prediction of CVD.

Incidence and risk factors of isolated systolic and diastolic hypertension: a 10 year follow-up of the Tehran Lipids and Glucose Study.

The objective of this study is to examine the incidence and risk factors of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) and isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH) in a Middle Eastern population, during a median follow-up of 9.6 years. In total, 8573 subjects without hypertension, cardiovascular disease and known diabetes were recruited into the study. To calculate the incidence of ISH, those with diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mmHg during follow-up, and for calculating IDH those with systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 140 mmHg during follow-up, were excluded. During follow-up, 235 new cases of ISH were identified, with a crude incidence rate of 5.7/1000 person-years; the corresponding values for IDH were 470 and 10.9/1000 person-years. Using backward stepwise Cox regression analysis, older age, baseline SBP and body mass index were related to incident ISH. Regarding IDH, younger age, baseline DBP and waist circumference were associated with higher risk, whereas female gender and being married were associated with lower risk (all p < 0.05). The C-statistics for the prediction model were 0.91 for ISH and 0.76 for IDH. In conclusion, after a decade of follow-up of this Iranian population, we found an incidence of about 0.5% and 1% per year for ISH and IDH, respectively.

Secular trends in serum lipid levels of a Middle Eastern adult population; 10 years follow up in Tehran lipid and glucose study.

BACKGROUND: To examine trends in the population levels of serum lipids among a Middle-Eastern adult population with high prevalence of dyslipidemia. METHODS: A population-based cohort of adult Iranian participants, aged ≥20 years underwent four consecutive examinations between 1999-2001 and 2008-2011. Trends in age and multivariate-adjusted mean lipid levels were calculated using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: At each of the 4 assessments, there were significant decreases in levels of total cholesterol (TC) (multivariate-adjusted means, 5.21 vs. 4.88 mmol/L in men; 5.42 vs. 5.07 mmol/L in women), triglycerides (TGs) (2.11 vs. 1.94 mmol/L in men; 1.88 vs. 1.74 mmol/L in women), and an increase in HDL-C level in both genders (0.95 vs. 1.058 mmol/L in men; 1.103 vs. 1.246 mmol/L in women) in multivariate analyses (all Ps <0.001); however, body mass index (BMI) significantly increased simultaneously (25.92 vs. 27.45 kg/m2 in men; 27.76 vs. 30.02 kg/m2 in women) (P < 0.001). There were significant (P < 0.001) increases in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels only among men (5.35 vs. 5.73 mmol/L). Results did not change after excluding participants that had cardiovascular disease or used lipid lowering drugs during follow-up. There were significant decreases in the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia, low HDL-C, hypertriglyceridemia (all Ps <0.001) during follow-up. Furthermore, the consumption of lipid lowering drugs significantly increased (P <0.001). CONCLUSION: During a 10 years follow-up, favorable trends were observed in the population levels of TC, triglycerides, HDL-C, which could not be fully accounted for by the increase observed in the consumption of lipid lowering drugs. These favorable trends were counterbalanced by the progressive increase in general obesity and FPG level.

The association of ideal cardiovascular health metrics and incident hypertension among an urban population of Iran: a decade follow-up in Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

We aimed to determine the association between ideal cardiovascular health metrics (ICVHM) and the incidence of hypertension among Iranian adults. The study population included 5409 Iranian adults aged ≥20 years (2088 men) without hypertension (applying the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline) at baseline. The ICVHM was defined according to the AHA's 2020 impact goals, excluding total cholesterol was replaced by non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for ICVHM both as continuous and categorical variables. During a median 8.5-year follow-up, 2972 new cases of hypertension were identified (men: 1,287). Non-HDL-C < 130 mg/dL in men [HR (95% CI): 0.75(0.65-0.86)] and fasting plasma glucose(FPG) < 100 mg/dL in women[HR (95% CI): 0.79(0.64-0.97)], and among both genders, being normal/overweigth status (compared to obese) and blood pressure <120/80 mmHg were associated with a lower risk for hypertension. Additionally, in both gender, a 1-point increase in the number of global ICVHM decreased the risk of hypertension by more than 10%, and having ≥5 vs. <2 ICVHM, were associated with a lower risk of hypertension by 30% (all p values < 0.05). Applying the JNC 7 guideline, the association between ICVHM, with incident hypertension, were generally similar. Having a higher number of ICVHM was associated with a lower risk of incident hypertension, using both 2017 ACC/AHA and JNC 7 guidelines, mostly attributable to keeping the ideal status of body mass index, non-HDL-C, and FPG.

The impact of obesity on different glucose tolerance status with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality events over 15 years of follow-up: a pooled cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effect of obesity in different glucose tolerance statuses i.e. normoglycemia (NGT), pre-diabetes, and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality has been an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. In the present study, we aimed to examine the impact of being obese, whether general or central separately, in comparison with non-obese in different glucose tolerance statuses on the above outcomes. METHODS: The study population included 18,184 participants aged 30-60 years (9927 women) from three longitudinal studies, including Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Glucose tolerance status was defined as NGT (fasting plasma glucose < 5.55 mmol/L), pre-diabetes (5.55-7.00 mmol/L), and T2DM (≥ 7 mmol/L or taking any medication for diabetes). Moreover, general and central obesity were defined based on body mass index and waist circumference (WC), respectively. Multivariable stratified Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs (95% CI)) for CVD and mortality events. RESULTS: During a 16-year follow-up, 2733 CVD events, 1101 CV mortality, and 3678 all-cause mortality events were recorded. We observed that being generally obese in comparison with non-obese increased the risk of CV and all-cause mortality in all glucose tolerance statuses; while considering CVD events, only among individuals with T2DM, the presence of general obesity was associated with marginally significant higher risk [1.19 (0.98-1.43); p-value = 0.07]. Regarding central adiposity, multivariate analysis revealed that elevated WC in NGT participants is associated with incident CVD [1.27(1.12-1.46)] and all-cause mortality [1.13(1.00-1.28)]. Moreover, central adiposity increased the risk of CV mortality in pre-diabetes individuals [1.47 (1.11-1.95)]. CONCLUSION: Findings from this pooled prospective cohort studies provide evidence that general obesity shows an unfavorable association with CV and all-cause mortality among the general population irrespective of their glucose tolerance statusThe findings imply that it's important to take into account the requirement and magnitude of weight reduction in people who are obese when offering guidance.