Detection of a local Mycobacterium bovis reservoir using cattle surveillance data.

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers (Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify badger-associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High- and Low-Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse. Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km2 ) in the Edge Area were classified as having a reservoir if they had (i) at least one TB incident in at least three of the previous 7 years, (ii) at least one TB incident in a cattle herd confirmed by post-mortem tests as due to M. bovis infection and not attributable to cattle movements in the previous 2 years and (iii) more confirmed TB incidents than un-confirmed in the previous 2 years. Approximately 20% of the Edge Area was classified as having a local M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis reservoir definition varied from 25.7% [95% credible interval (CrI): 10.7%-85.1%] to 64.8% (95% CrI: 48.1%-88.0%). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI: 83.6%-97.4%). Over 90% of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M. bovis become available.

Risk-based surveillance for bluetongue virus in cattle on the south coast of England in 2017 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease of ruminants and camelids which can have a significant impact on animal health and welfare and cause severe economic loss. The UK has been officially free of bluetongue virus (BTV) since 2011. In 2015, BTV-8 re-emerged in France and since then BTV has been spreading throughout Europe. In response to this outbreak, risk-based active surveillance was carried out at the end of the vector seasons in 2017 and 2018 to assess the risk of incursion of BTV into Great Britain. METHOD: Atmospheric dispersion modelling identified counties on the south coast of England at higher risk of an incursion. Blood samples were collected from cattle in five counties based on a sample size designed to detect at least one positive if the prevalence was 5 per cent or greater, with 95 per cent confidence. RESULTS: No virus was detected in the 478 samples collected from 32 farms at the end of the 2017 vector season or in the 646 samples collected from 43 farms at the end of the 2018 vector season, when tested by RT-qPCR. CONCLUSION: The negative results from this risk-based survey provided evidence to support the continuation of the UK's official BTV-free status.