Humoral correlates of protection against influenza A H3N2 virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus remains a threat to human health, but gaps remain in our knowledge of the humoral correlates of protection against influenza virus A/H3N2, limiting our ability to generate effective, broadly protective vaccines. The role of antibodies against the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk, a highly conserved but immunologically sub-dominant region, has not been established for influenza virus A/H3N2. METHODS: Household transmission studies were conducted in Managua, Nicaragua across three influenza seasons. Household contacts were tested for influenza virus infection using RT-PCR. We compared pre-existing antibody levels against full-length hemagglutinin (FLHA), HA stalk, and neuraminidase (NA) measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), along with HA inhibition assay (HAI) titers, between infected and uninfected participants. RESULTS: A total of 899 individuals participated in household activation, with 329 infections occurring. A four-fold increase in initial HA stalk titers was independently associated with an 18% decrease in the risk of infection (OR=0.82, 95%CI 0.68-0.98, p=0.04). In adults, anti-HA stalk antibodies were independently associated with protection (OR=0.72, 95%CI 0.54-0.95, p=0.02). However, in 0-14-year-olds, anti-NA antibodies (OR=0.67, 95%CI 0.53-0.85, p<0.01) were associated with protection against infection, but anti-HA stalk antibodies were not. CONCLUSIONS: The HA stalk is an independent correlate of protection against A/H3N2 infection, though this association is age dependent. Our results support the continued exploration of the HA stalk as a target for broadly protective influenza vaccines but suggest that the relative benefits may depend on age and influenza virus exposure history.

Introduction of New Dengue Virus Lineages of Multiple Serotypes after COVID-19 Pandemic, Nicaragua, 2022.

Major dengue epidemics throughout Nicaragua's history have been dominated by 1 of 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4). To examine serotypes during the dengue epidemic in Nicaragua in 2022, we performed real-time genomic surveillance in-country and documented cocirculation of all 4 serotypes. We observed a shift toward co-dominance of DENV-1 and DENV-4 over previously dominant DENV-2. By analyzing 135 new full-length DENV sequences, we found that introductions underlay the resurgence: DENV-1 clustered with viruses from Ecuador in 2014 rather than those previously seen in Nicaragua; DENV-3, which last circulated locally in 2014, grouped instead with Southeast Asia strains expanding into Florida and Cuba in 2022; and new DENV-4 strains clustered within a South America lineage spreading to Florida in 2022. In contrast, DENV-2 persisted from the formerly dominant Nicaragua clade. We posit that the resurgence emerged from travel after the COVID-19 pandemic and that the resultant intensifying hyperendemicity could affect future dengue immunity and severity.

Birth cohort relative to an influenza A virus's antigenic cluster introduction drives patterns of children's antibody titers.

An individual's antibody titers to influenza A strains are a result of the complicated interplay between infection history, cross-reactivity, immune waning, and other factors. It has been challenging to disentangle how population-level patterns of humoral immunity change as a function of age, calendar year, and birth cohort from cross-sectional data alone. We analyzed 1,589 longitudinal sera samples from 260 children across three studies in Nicaragua, 2006-16. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers were determined against four H3N2 strains, one H1N1 strain, and two H1N1pdm strains. We assessed temporal patterns of HAI titers using an age-period-cohort modeling framework. We found that titers against a given virus depended on calendar year of serum collection and birth cohort but not on age. Titer cohort patterns were better described by participants' ages relative to year of likely introduction of the virus's antigenic cluster than by age relative to year of strain introduction or by year of birth. These cohort effects may be driven by a decreasing likelihood of early-life infection after cluster introduction and by more broadly reactive antibodies at a young age. H3N2 and H1N1 viruses had qualitatively distinct cohort patterns, with cohort patterns of titers to specific H3N2 strains reaching their peak in children born 3 years prior to that virus's antigenic cluster introduction and with titers to H1N1 and H1N1pdm strains peaking for children born 1-2 years prior to cluster introduction but not being dramatically lower for older children. Ultimately, specific patterns of strain circulation and antigenic cluster introduction may drive population-level antibody titer patterns in children.

Cohort study: Neurological and cognitive-behavioral sequelae of acquired Zika virus infection among Nicaraguan children.

BACKGROUND: ZIKV has neuroinvasive properties, and in utero exposure can cause birth defects, but little is known about the neurological and neurocognitive impacts of acquired ZIKV infection, particularly in children. METHODS: We assessed neurological symptoms frequency among ZIKV-infected children within one year after ZIKV infection. Three to 5 years post-infection, these children and a matched group of uninfected children were assessed via questionnaires, neurological exams, and neuropsychological testing to evaluate the association between prior ZIKV infection and subsequent neurological symptoms, and cognitive-behavioral function. RESULTS: Among 194 ZIKV-infected children, 3 reported asthenia, 4 reported neck pain, and 10 reported back pain within one year post-infection. At follow-up, clinician-observed cranial nerve abnormalities were significantly more common among ZIKV-infected vs. uninfected children (16 vs. 3; p < 0.01), with vestibulocochlear nerve abnormalities observed most frequently. While ZIKV-infected children scored better than uninfected on cognitive measures, this difference was not clinically meaningful. CONCLUSIONS: Neurological signs, including paresthesia and cranial nerve abnormalities, were observed among ZIKV-infected participants in our study. However, we did not observe a meaningful link between acquired ZIKV infection and subsequent neurological, cognitive, or behavioral outcomes in a representative sample. An exception may be hearing impairment and loss, which should be explored further in future studies. IMPACT: Neurological symptoms, though rare, were observed and reported more frequently among ZIKV-infected vs. uninfected children. These included: asthenia, neck pain, back pain, paresthesia, and cranial nerve abnormalities. Neurocognitive and behavioral test scores were similar among ZIKV-infected and uninfected children. Our study suggests that ZIKV-infected children should be monitored for neurological symptoms and cranial neuropathy to better understand the full burden of acquired ZIKV infection among children.

Boosting can explain patterns of fluctuations of ratios of inapparent to symptomatic dengue virus infections.

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease worldwide, and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes circulate endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. Numerous studies have shown that the majority of DENV infections are inapparent, and that the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections (I/S) fluctuates substantially year-to-year. For example, in the ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) in Nicaragua, which was established in 2004, the I/S ratio has varied from 16.5:1 in 2006-2007 to 1.2:1 in 2009-2010. However, the mechanisms explaining these large fluctuations are not well understood. We hypothesized that in dengue-endemic areas, frequent boosting (i.e., exposures to DENV that do not lead to extensive viremia and result in a less than fourfold rise in antibody titers) of the immune response can be protective against symptomatic disease, and this can explain fluctuating I/S ratios. We formulate mechanistic epidemiologic models to examine the epidemiologic effects of protective homologous and heterologous boosting of the antibody response in preventing subsequent symptomatic DENV infection. We show that models that include frequent boosts that protect against symptomatic disease can recover the fluctuations in the I/S ratio that we observe, whereas a classic model without boosting cannot. Furthermore, we show that a boosting model can recover the inverse relationship between the number of symptomatic cases and the I/S ratio observed in the PDCS. These results highlight the importance of robust dengue control efforts, as intermediate dengue control may have the potential to decrease the protective effects of boosting.

The Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort Study, 2011-2019: Influenza Incidence, Seasonality, and Transmission.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a large portion of global influenza burden and transmission, and a better understanding of influenza in children is needed to improve prevention and control strategies. METHODS: To examine the incidence and transmission of influenza we conducted a prospective community-based study of children aged 0-14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, between 2011 and 2019. Participants were provided with medical care through study physicians and symptomatic influenza was confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Wavelet analyses were used to examine seasonality. Generalized growth models (GGMs) were used to estimate effective reproduction numbers. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2019, 3016 children participated, with an average of ∼1800 participants per year and median follow-up time of 5 years per child, and 48.3% of the cohort in 2019 had been enrolled their entire lives. The overall incidence rates per 100 person-years were 14.5 symptomatic influenza cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.9-15.1) and 1.0 influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) case (95% CI: .8-1.1). Symptomatic influenza incidence peaked at age 9-11 months. Infants born during peak influenza circulation had lower incidence in the first year of their lives. The mean effective reproduction number was 1.2 (range 1.02-1.49), and we observed significant annual patterns for influenza and influenza A, and a 2.5-year period for influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important information for understanding influenza epidemiology and informing influenza vaccine policy. These results will aid in informing strategies to reduce the burden of influenza.

Infection-Induced Immunity Is Associated With Protection Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Decreased Infectivity.

BACKGROUND: The impact of infection-induced immunity on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has not been well established. Here we estimate the effects of prior infection induced immunity in adults and children on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households. METHODS: We conducted a household cohort study from March 2020-November 2022 in Managua, Nicaragua; following a housheold SARS-CoV-2 infection, household members are closely monitored for infection. We estimate the association of time period, age, symptoms, and prior infection with secondary attack risk. RESULTS: Overall, transmission occurred in 70.2% of households, 40.9% of household contacts were infected, and the secondary attack risk ranged from 8.1% to 13.9% depending on the time period. Symptomatic infected individuals were more infectious (rate ratio [RR] 21.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.4-60.7) and participants with a prior infection were half as likely to be infected compared to naïve individuals (RR 0.52, 95% CI:.38-.70). In models stratified by age, prior infection was associated with decreased infectivity in adults and adolescents (secondary attack risk [SAR] 12.3, 95% CI: 10.3, 14.8 vs 17.5, 95% CI: 14.8, 20.7). However, although young children were less likely to transmit, neither prior infection nor symptom presentation was associated with infectivity. During the Omicron era, infection-induced immunity remained protective against infection. CONCLUSIONS: Infection-induced immunity is associated with decreased infectivity for adults and adolescents. Although young children are less infectious, prior infection and asymptomatic presentation did not reduce their infectivity as was seen in adults. As SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children may become more important in transmission dynamics.

The Spectrum of Influenza in Children.

BACKGROUND: Children constitute an important component of the influenza burden and community transmission, but the frequency of asymptomatic infection and post-influenza sequelae at the community level is poorly understood. METHODS: Two community-based prospective cohort studies (2011-2020, 2017-2020) and 1 case-ascertained study (2012-2017) were conducted in Managua, Nicaragua. Non-immunocompromised children aged 0-14 years with ≥1 influenza infections, determined by polymerase chain reaction and hemagglutination inhibition assay, were included. RESULTS: A total of 1272 influenza infections occurred in the household-based portion of the study. Influenza infection was asymptomatic in 84 (6.6%) infections, and the asymptomatic fraction increased with age (1.7%, 3.5%, and 9.1% for ages 0-1, 2-4, and 5-14, respectively; P < .001). Of asymptomatic children, 43 (51.2%) shed virus, compared to 1099 (92.5%) symptomatic children (P < .001). Also, 2140 cases of influenza occurred in the primary care portion of the study. Sequelae of influenza were rare, with the most common being pneumonia (52, 2.4%) and acute otitis media (71, 3.3%). A/H1N1 had higher age-adjusted odds of acute otitis media (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-3.48; P = .015) and hospitalization (OR 3.73, 95% CI: 1.68-8.67; P = .002) than A/H3N2. B/Victoria had higher age-adjusted odds of pneumonia (OR 10.99, 95% CI: 1.34-90.28; P = .026) than B/Yamagata. CONCLUSIONS: Asymptomatic influenza infection is much less common in children than adults, although viral shedding still occurs in asymptomatic children. Post-influenza sequelae are rare in children in the community setting, and virus strain may be important in understanding the risk of sequelae.

Original antigenic sin priming of influenza virus hemagglutinin stalk antibodies.

Immunity to influenza viruses can be long-lived, but reinfections with antigenically distinct viral strains and subtypes are common. Reinfections can boost antibody responses against viral strains first encountered in childhood through a process termed "original antigenic sin." It is unknown how initial childhood exposures affect the induction of antibodies against the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk domain of influenza viruses. This is an important consideration since broadly reactive HA stalk antibodies can protect against infection, and universal vaccine platforms are being developed to induce these antibodies. Here we show that experimentally infected ferrets and naturally infected humans establish strong "immunological imprints" against HA stalk antigens first encountered during primary influenza virus infections. We found that HA stalk antibodies are surprisingly boosted upon subsequent infections with antigenically distinct influenza A virus subtypes. Paradoxically, these heterosubtypic-boosted HA stalk antibodies do not bind efficiently to the boosting influenza virus strain. Our results demonstrate that an individual's HA stalk antibody response is dependent on the specific subtype of influenza virus that they first encounter early in life. We propose that humans are susceptible to heterosubtypic influenza virus infections later in life since these viruses boost HA stalk antibodies that do not bind efficiently to the boosting antigen.

Single-Dose Vaccination Among Infants and Toddlers Provides Modest Protection Against Influenza Illness, Which Wanes After 5 Months.

In their first season of vaccination, young children are recommended 2 doses of influenza vaccine, but a 2-dose schedule might be difficult to implement in many countries. Within a cohort study of 742 children aged 6 to <24 months in Managua, Nicaragua, this study estimated effectiveness of partial vaccination from 3 to 9 months postvaccination. Vaccine effectiveness was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-91%) within 3 months and 55% (95% CI, 10%-77%) within 4 months. There was not significant protection beyond 5 months. Partial vaccination might confer some benefits but should be followed by a second dose.

Clinical Spectrum of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Protection From Symptomatic Reinfection.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the full spectrum of disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across the lifespan from community-based or nonclinical settings. METHODS: We followed 2338 people in Managua, Nicaragua, aged <94 years from March 2020 through March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infection was identified through real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Disease presentation was assessed at the time of infection or retrospectively by survey at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: There was a large epidemic that peaked between March and August 2020. In total, 129 RT-PCR-positive infections were detected, for an overall incidence rate of 5.3 infections per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4-6.3). Seroprevalence was 56.7% (95% CI, 53.5%-60.1%) and was consistent from age 11 through adulthood but was lower in children aged ≤10 years. Overall, 31.0% of the infections were symptomatic, with 54.7% mild, 41.6% moderate, and 3.7% severe. There were 2 deaths that were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding an infection fatality rate of 0.2%. Antibody titers exhibited a J-shaped curve with respect to age, with the lowest titers observed among older children and young adults and the highest among older adults. When compared to SARS-CoV-2-seronegative individuals, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the midyear sample was associated with 93.6% protection from symptomatic reinfection (95% CI, 51.1%-99.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This population exhibited a very high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity with lower-than-expected severity, and immunity from natural infection was protective against symptomatic reinfection.

Pre-existing T Cell Memory against Zika Virus.

The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread rapidly into regions where dengue virus (DENV) is endemic, and flavivirus cross-reactive T cell responses have been observed repeatedly in animal models and in humans. Preexisting cellular immunity to DENV is thought to contribute to protection in subsequent ZIKV infection, but the epitope targets of cross-reactive T cell responses have not been comprehensively identified. Using human blood samples from the regions of Nicaragua and Sri Lanka where DENV is endemic that were collected before the global spread of ZIKV in 2016, we employed an in vitro expansion strategy to map ZIKV T cell epitopes in ZIKV-unexposed, DENV-seropositive donors. We identified 93 epitopes across the ZIKV proteome, and we observed patterns of immunodominance that were dependent on antigen size and sequence identity to DENV. We confirmed the immunogenicity of these epitopes through a computational HLA binding analysis, and we showed that cross-reactive T cells specifically recognize ZIKV peptides homologous to DENV sequences. We also found that these CD4 responses were derived from the memory T cell compartment. These data have implications for understanding the dynamics of flavivirus-specific T cell immunity in areas of endemicity.IMPORTANCE Multiple flaviviruses, including Zika virus (ZIKV) and the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV), are prevalent in the same large tropical and equatorial areas, which are inhabited by hundreds of millions of people. The interplay of DENV and ZIKV infection is especially relevant, as these two viruses are endemic in largely overlapping regions, have significant sequence similarity, and share the same arthropod vector. Here, we define the targets of preexisting immunity to ZIKV in unexposed subjects in areas where dengue is endemic. We demonstrate that preexisting immunity to DENV could shape ZIKV-specific responses, and DENV-ZIKV cross-reactive T cell populations can be expanded by stimulation with ZIKV peptides. The issue of potential ZIKV and DENV cross-reactivity is of relevance for understanding patterns of natural immunity, as well as for the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines.

Identification of Anti-Premembrane Antibody as a Serocomplex-Specific Marker To Discriminate Zika, Dengue, and West Nile Virus Infections.

Although transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has greatly declined since late 2017, recent reports of reduced risks of symptomatic Zika by prior dengue virus (DENV) infection and increased risks of severe dengue disease by previous ZIKV or DENV infection underscore a critical need for serological tests that can discriminate past ZIKV, DENV, and/or other flavivirus infections and improve our understanding of the immune interactions between these viruses and vaccine strategy in endemic regions. As serological tests for ZIKV primarily focus on envelope (E) and nonstructural protein 1 (NS1), antibodies to other ZIKV proteins have not been explored. Here, we employed Western blot analysis using antigens of 6 flaviviruses from 3 serocomplexes to investigate antibody responses following reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR)-confirmed ZIKV infection. Panels of 20 primary ZIKV and 20 ZIKV with previous DENV infection recognized E proteins of all 6 flaviviruses and the NS1 protein of ZIKV with some cross-reactivity to DENV. While the primary ZIKV panel recognized only the premembrane (prM) protein of ZIKV, the ZIKV with previous DENV panel recognized both ZIKV and DENV prM proteins. Analysis of antibody responses following 42 DENV and 18 West Nile virus infections revealed similar patterns of recognition by anti-E and anti-NS1 antibodies, whereas both panels recognized the prM protein of the homologous serocomplex but not others. The specificity was further supported by analysis of sequential samples. Together, these findings suggest that anti-prM antibody is a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker and can be used to delineate current and past flavivirus infections in endemic areas. IMPORTANCE Despite a decline in Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission since late 2017, questions regarding its surveillance, potential reemergence, and interactions with other flaviviruses in regions where it is endemic remain unanswered. Recent studies have reported reduced risks of symptomatic Zika by prior dengue virus (DENV) infection and increased risks of severe dengue disease by previous ZIKV or DENV infection, highlighting a need for better serological tests to discriminate past ZIKV, DENV, and/or other flavivirus infections and improved understanding of the immune interactions and vaccine strategy for these viruses. As most serological tests for ZIKV focused on envelope and nonstructural protein 1, antibodies to other ZIKV proteins, including potentially specific antibodies, remain understudied. We employed Western blot analysis using antigens of 6 flaviviruses to study antibody responses following well-documented ZIKV, DENV, and West Nile virus infections and identified anti-premembrane antibody as a flavivirus serocomplex-specific marker to delineate current and past flavivirus infections in areas where flaviviruses are endemic.

Pneumonia Following Symptomatic Influenza Infection Among Nicaraguan Children Before and After Introduction of the Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine.

Influenza is associated with primary viral and secondary bacterial pneumonias; however, the dynamics of this relationship in populations with varied levels of pneumococcal vaccination remain unclear. We conducted nested matched case-control studies in 2 prospective cohorts of Nicaraguan children aged 2-14 years: 1 before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction (2008-2010) and 1 following introduction and near universal adoption (2011-2018). The association between influenza and pneumonia was similar in both cohorts. Participants with influenza (across types/subtypes) had higher odds of developing pneumonia in the month following influenza infection. These findings underscore the importance of considering influenza in interventions to reduce global pneumonia burden.

Symptoms, Infection Duration, and Hemagglutinin Inhibition Antibody Response in Influenza A Infections.

BACKGROUND: Many influenza studies assume that symptomatic and asymptomatic cases have equivalent antibody responses. METHODS: This study examines the relationship between influenza symptoms and serological response. Influenza-positive index cases and household members in Managua, Nicaragua, during 2012-2017 were categorized by symptom status. RESULTS: Antibody response was assessed using hemagglutination inhibition assays (HAI). Among 510 cases, 74.5% had ≥4-fold increase in HAI antibodies, and 75.3% had febrile illness. In a logistic regression model, febrile cases had 2.17 times higher odds of a ≥4-fold titer rise compared to asymptomatic cases (95% confidence interval, 1.02-4.64). CONCLUSIONS: Studies relying on serological assays may not generalize to asymptomatic infections.

Obesity Is Associated With Increased Susceptibility to Influenza A (H1N1pdm) but Not H3N2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been shown to increase the risk of severe outcomes and death for influenza virus infections. However, we do not understand the influence of obesity on susceptibility to infection or on nonsevere influenza outcomes. METHODS: We performed a case-ascertained, community-based study of influenza transmission within households in Nicaragua. To investigate whether obesity increases the likelihood of influenza infection and symptomatic infection we used logistic regression models. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2018, a total of 335 index cases with influenza A and 1506 of their household contacts were enrolled. Obesity was associated with increased susceptibility to symptomatic H1N1pdm infection among adults (odds ratio [OR], 2.10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-4.06) but not children, and this association increased with age. Among adults with H1N1pdm infection, obesity was associated with increased likelihood of symptoms (OR, 3.91; 95% CI, 1.55-9.87). For middle-aged and older adults with obesity there was also a slight increase in susceptibility to any H1N1pdm infection (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, .62-2.34). Body mass index (BMI) was also linearly associated with increased susceptibility to symptomatic H1N1pdm infection, primarily among middle-aged and older women (5-unit BMI increase OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.00-1.97). Obesity was not associated with increased H3N2 susceptibility or associated symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We found that, among adults, obesity is associated with susceptibility to H1N1pdm infection and with symptoms associated with H1N1pdm infection, but not with susceptibility to H3N2 infection or associated symptoms. These findings will help target prevention efforts and therapeutics to this high-risk population.

Individual-level Association of Influenza Infection With Subsequent Pneumonia: A Case-control and Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Influenza may result in primary pneumonia or be associated with secondary bacterial pneumonia. While the association with secondary pneumonia has been established ecologically, individual-level evidence remains sparse and the risk period for pneumonia following influenza poorly defined. METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study and a prospective cohort study among Nicaraguan children aged 0-14 years from 2011 through 2018. Physicians diagnosed pneumonia cases based on Integrated Management for Childhood Illness guidelines. Cases were matched with up to 4 controls on age (months) and study week. We fit conditional logistic regression models to assess the association between influenza subtype and subsequent pneumonia development, and a Bayesian nonlinear survival model to estimate pneumonia hazard following influenza. RESULTS: Participants with influenza had greater risk of developing pneumonia in the 30 days following onset compared to those without influenza (matched odds ratio [mOR], 2.7 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.9-3.9]). Odds of developing pneumonia were highest for participants following A(H1N1)pdm09 illness (mOR, 3.7 [95% CI, 2.0-6.9]), followed by influenza B and A(H3N2). Participants' odds of pneumonia following influenza were not constant, showing distinct peaks 0-6 days (mOR, 8.3 [95% CI, 4.8-14.5] days) and 14-20 (mOR, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.1-5.5] days) after influenza infection. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is a significant driver of both primary and secondary pneumonia among children. The presence of distinct periods of elevated pneumonia risk in the 30 days following influenza supports multiple etiological pathways.

T Cell Responses Induced by Attenuated Flavivirus Vaccination Are Specific and Show Limited Cross-Reactivity with Other Flavivirus Species.

Members of the flavivirus genus share a high level of sequence similarity and often circulate in the same geographical regions. However, whether T cells induced by one viral species cross-react with other related flaviviruses has not been globally addressed. In this study, we tested pools of epitopes derived from dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), Japanese encephalitis (JEV), West Nile (WNV), and yellow fever (YFV) viruses by intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of individuals naturally exposed to DENV or immunized with DENV (TV005) or YF17D vaccine. CD8 T cell responses recognized epitopes from multiple flaviviruses; however, the magnitude of cross-reactive responses was consistently severalfold lower than those to the autologous epitope pools and was associated with lower expression of activation markers such as CD40L, CD69, and CD137. Next, we characterized the antigen sensitivity of short-term T cell lines (TCL) representing 29 different individual epitope/donor combinations. TCL derived from DENV monovalent vaccinees induced CD8 and CD4 T cells that cross-reacted within the DENV serocomplex but were consistently associated with >100-fold-lower antigen sensitivity for most other flaviviruses, with no cross-recognition of YFV-derived peptides. CD8 and CD4 TCL from YF17D vaccinees were associated with very limited cross-reactivity with any other flaviviruses and in five out of eight cases >1,000-fold-lower antigen sensitivity. Overall, our data suggest limited cross-reactivity for both CD4 and CD8 T cell responses between flaviviruses and have implications for understanding immunity elicited by natural infection and strategies to develop live attenuated vaccines against flaviviral species.IMPORTANCE The envelope (E) protein is the dominant target of neutralizing antibodies for dengue virus (DENV) and yellow fever virus (YFV). Accordingly, several DENV vaccine constructs use the E protein in a live attenuated vaccine format, utilizing a backbone derived from a heterologous flavivirus (such as YF) as a delivery vector. This backbone comprises the nonstructural (NS) and capsid (C) antigens, which are dominant targets of T cell responses. Here, we demonstrate that cross-reactivity at the level of T cell responses among different flaviviruses is very limited, despite high levels of sequence homology. Thus, the use of heterologous flavivirus species as a live attenuated vaccine vector is not likely to generate optimal T cell responses and might thus impair vaccine performance.

Dynamics and determinants of the force of infection of dengue virus from 1994 to 2015 in Managua, Nicaragua.

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Population-level measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally.

Seroprevalence, risk factor, and spatial analyses of Zika virus infection after the 2016 epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua.

In 2015, a Zika epidemic in Brazil began spreading throughout the Americas. Zika virus (ZIKV) entered Managua, Nicaragua, in January 2016 and caused an epidemic that peaked in July-September 2016. ZIKV seropositivity was estimated among participants of pediatric (n = 3,740) and household (n = 2,147) cohort studies, including an adult-only subset from the household cohort (n = 1,074), in Managua. Seropositivity was based on a highly sensitive and specific assay, the Zika NS1 blockade-of-binding ELISA, which can be used in dengue-endemic populations. Overall seropositivity for the pediatric (ages 2-14), household (ages 2-80), and adult (ages 15-80) cohorts was 36, 46, and 56%, respectively. Trend, risk factor, and contour mapping analyses demonstrated that ZIKV seroprevalence increased nonlinearly with age and that body surface area was statistically associated with increasing seroprevalence in children. ZIKV seropositivity was higher in females than in males across almost all ages, with adjusted prevalence ratios in children and adults of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02-1.21) and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.01-1.28), respectively. No household-level risk factors were statistically significant in multivariate analyses. A spatial analysis revealed a 10-15% difference in the risk of ZIKV infections across our 3-km-wide study site, suggesting that ZIKV infection risk varies at small spatial scales. To our knowledge, this is the largest ZIKV seroprevalence study reported in the Americas, and the only one in Central America and in children to date. It reveals a high level of immunity against ZIKV in Managua as a result of the 2016 epidemic, making a second large Zika epidemic unlikely in the near future.