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Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e269, 2020 11 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33143782

RESUMEN

When we consider a probability distribution about how many COVID-19-infected people will transmit the disease, two points become important. First, there could be super-spreaders in these distributions/networks and second, the Pareto principle could be valid in these distributions/networks regarding estimation that 20% of cases were responsible for 80% of local transmission. When we accept that these two points are valid, the distribution of transmission becomes a discrete Pareto distribution, which is a kind of power law. Having such a transmission distribution, then we can simulate COVID-19 networks and find super-spreaders using the centricity measurements in these networks. In this research, in the first we transformed a transmission distribution of statistics and epidemiology into a transmission network of network science and second we try to determine who the super-spreaders are by using this network and eigenvalue centrality measure. We underline that determination of transmission probability distribution is a very important point in the analysis of the epidemic and determining the precautions to be taken.


Asunto(s)
Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Humanos , Pandemias , Probabilidad , SARS-CoV-2 , Red Social
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