Bronchopulmonary dysplasia prediction model for 7-day-old infants.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model capable of identifying which premature infants have the greatest probability of presenting bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), based on assessment at the end of their first week of life. METHODS: Data were collected retrospectively from January 1998 to July 2001, and prospectively from August 2001 to July 2003. All children born at the Institution with gestational age < 34 weeks and birth weight < 1,500 g were included. The principal risk factors for BPD were subjected to univariate analysis followed by logistic regression. Significant variables were used to construct a formula to calculate the probability of BPD. The model was calibrated and its discriminative power assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Between August 2003 and July 2005 the model was then applied to a different population for validation. RESULTS: The sample comprised 247 children, of whom 68 developed BPD, classified as follows: mild = 35 (51.4%), moderate = 20 (29.4%) and severe = 8 (11.7 %). Four variables maintained significance with relation to BPD: gestational age < or = 30 weeks, persistent ductus arteriosus, mechanical ventilation > 2 days and loss of > 15% of birth weight on the seventh day of life. Where patients exhibited all of these variables, the model had a 93.7% probability of being correct. The model was further validated when using another sample of 61 newborns; similar figures were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: At the end of the first week of life, the predictive model developed from our population was capable of identifying newborn infants at increased risk of developing BPD with a high degree of sensitivity.

Incidence and main risk factors associated with extubation failure in newborns with birth weight < 1,250 grams.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of extubation failure in preterm newborns with birth weight < 1,250 g extubated to nasal continuous positive airway pressure and to identify the main risk factors associated with the need for reintubation in this population. METHODS: A retrospective review of eligible infants admitted and mechanically ventilated between July 2002 and June 2004 was performed. Extubation failure was defined as the need for reintubation within 7 days after the first extubation attempt. RESULTS: Of the 52 patients included in the study, 13 died before the first extubation attempt. Of the remaining 39 patients, only nine failed extubation (23.1%) Comparing the two groups (failure vs. successful), there was a statistically significant difference regarding birth weight, gestational age and 5-minute Apgar score. After logistic regression, only gestational age was significant. Other secondary outcomes showed significant difference between the groups: intracranial hemorrhage grade III and/or IV, patent ductus arteriosus and death. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of extubation failure in our population was similar to the rate reported in the literature. The main risk factor for extubation failure was prematurity (< or = 28 weeks). In this population of extreme preterm infants, implementation of strategies for early extubation, use of methylxanthines, prevention of patent ductus arteriosus, and use of different modes of assisted ventilation after extubation may improve the outcomes.

Incidência e principais fatores associados à falha de extubação em recém-nascidos com peso de nascimento < 1.250 gramas / Incidence and main risk factors associated with extubation failure in newborns with birth weight < 1.250 grams

OBJETIVOS: Determinar a incidência de falha de extubação em recém-nascidos prematuros com peso de nascimento < 1.250 g extubados para pressão positiva contínua nas vias aéreas nasais e identificar os principais fatores de risco que possam estar associados à necessidade de reintubação nessa população. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva dos prontuários de pacientes internados e ventilados mecanicamente durante o período de julho de 2002 a junho de 2004. Falha na extubação foi definida como necessidade de reintubação nos primeiros 7 dias após a primeira tentativa de extubação. RESULTADOS: Entre 52 pacientes estudados, 13 faleceram antes da primeira tentativa de extubação. Do restante, apenas nove falharam na extubação (23,1 por cento). Comparando esses recém-nascidos com aqueles extubados com sucesso, houve diferença estatisticamente significativa em relação a peso de nascimento, idade gestacional e escore de Apgar no 5º minuto. Após a regressão logística, apenas a idade gestacional se manteve significativa. Alguns resultados secundários também foram significativamente diferentes: incidência de hemorragia intracraniana graus III e/ou IV, persistência do canal arterial e óbito. CONCLUSÕES: Nosso estudo demonstrou uma incidência de falha na extubação semelhante à da literatura. O principal fator de risco para falha nessa população foi a prematuridade (≤ 28 semanas). Nesses prematuros extremos, a implementação de estratégias para extubação precoce, o uso de metilxantinas, a prevenção da abertura do canal arterial e o uso de outros métodos de assistência ventilatória pós-extubação podem contribuir para a melhora desses resultados.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of extubation failure in preterm newborns with birth weight < 1,250 g extubated to nasal continuous positive airway pressure and to identify the main risk factors associated with the need for reintubation in this population. METHODS: A retrospective review of eligible infants admitted and mechanically ventilated between July 2002 and June 2004 was performed. Extubation failure was defined as the need for reintubation within 7 days after the first extubation attempt. RESULTS: Of the 52 patients included in the study, 13 died before the first extubation attempt. Of the remaining 39 patients, only nine failed extubation (23.1 percent) Comparing the two groups (failure vs. successful), there was a statistically significant difference regarding birth weight, gestational age and 5-minute Apgar score. After logistic regression, only gestational age was significant. Other secondary outcomes showed significant difference between the groups: intracranial hemorrhage grade III and/or IV, patent ductus arteriosus and death. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of extubation failure in our population was similar to the rate reported in the literature. The main risk factor for extubation failure was prematurity (≤ 28 weeks). In this population of extreme preterm infants, implementation of strategies for early extubation, use of methylxanthines, prevention of patent ductus arteriosus, and use of different modes of assisted ventilation after extubation may improve the outcomes.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia prediction modelfor 7-day-old infants

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver um modelo preditivo capaz de identificar, ao final da primeira semana de vida, os recém-nascidos prematuros com maior probabilidade de evoluir para displasia broncopulmonar (DBP). MÉTODOS: Os dados foram coletados retrospectivamente entre janeiro de 1998 e julho de 2001, e prospectivamente de agosto de 2001 a julho de 2003. Foram incluídas todas as crianças nascidas na Instituição, com idade gestacional < 34 semanas e peso de nascimento < 1.500 g. Os principais fatores de risco foram submetidos inicialmente a uma análise univariada, seguida de regressão logística. As variáveis significativas foram utilizadas na montagem da fórmula para cálculo da probabilidade de ocorrência de DBP. O modelo foi calibrado, e a discriminação avaliada pela curva ROC. De agosto de 2003 a julho de 2005, o modelo foi aplicado em outra população para validação. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídas 247 crianças, das quais 68 evoluíram para DBP, sendo divididas da seguinte maneira: leve = 35 (51,4 por cento), moderada = 20 (29,4 por cento) e grave = oito (11,7 por cento). Quatro variáveis mantiveram significância em relação à DBP: idade gestacional < 30 semanas, persistência do canal arterial, ventilação mecânica > 2 dias e perda de > 15 por cento do peso de nascimento no sétimo dia de vida. Nos pacientes com todas as variáveis presentes, o modelo permitiu uma probabilidade de acerto de 93,7 por cento. Valores semelhantes foram obtidos com as 61 crianças utilizadas na validação do modelo. CONCLUSÕES O modelo preditivo desenvolvido em nossa população foi capaz de identificar com elevado grau de sensibilidade, ao final da primeira semana de vida, os recém-nascidos sob maior risco de evoluir para DBP.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model capable of identifying which premature infants have the greatest probability of presenting bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), based on assessment at the end of their first week of life. METHODS: Data were collected retrospectively from January 1998 to July 2001, and prospectively from August 2001 to July 2003. All children born at the institution with gestational age < 34 weeks and birth weight < 1,500 g were included. The principal risk factors for BPD were subjected to univariate analysis followed by logistic regression. Significant variables were used to construct a formula to calculate the probability of BPD. The model was calibrated and its discriminative power assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Between August 2003 and July 2005 the model was then applied to a different population for validation. RESULTS: The sample comprised 247 children, of whom 68 developed BPD, classified as follows: mild = 35 (51.4 percent), moderate = 20 (29.4 percent) and severe = 8 (11.7 percent). Four variables maintained significance with relation to BPD: gestational age < 30 weeks, persistent ductus arteriosus, mechanical ventilation > 2 days and loss of > 15 percent of birth weight on the seventh day of life. Where patients exhibited all of these variables, the model had a 93.7 percent probability of being correct. The model was further validated when using another sample of 61 newborns; similar figures were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: At the end of the first week of life, the predictive model developed from our population was capable of identifying newborn infants at increased risk of developing BPD with a high degree of sensitivity.