A major advance of tropical Andean glaciers during the Antarctic cold reversal.

The Younger Dryas stadial, a cold event spanning 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, during the last deglaciation, is thought to coincide with the last major glacial re-advance in the tropical Andes. This interpretation relies mainly on cosmic-ray exposure dating of glacial deposits. Recent studies, however, have established new production rates for cosmogenic (10)Be and (3)He, which make it necessary to update all chronologies in this region and revise our understanding of cryospheric responses to climate variability. Here we present a new (10)Be moraine chronology in Colombia showing that glaciers in the northern tropical Andes expanded to a larger extent during the Antarctic cold reversal (14,500 to 12,900 years ago) than during the Younger Dryas. On the basis of a homogenized chronology of all (10)Be and (3)He moraine ages across the tropical Andes, we show that this behaviour was common to the northern and southern tropical Andes. Transient simulations with a coupled global climate model suggest that the common glacier behaviour was the result of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability superimposed on a deglacial increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. During the Antarctic cold reversal, glaciers advanced primarily in response to cold sea surface temperatures over much of the Southern Hemisphere. During the Younger Dryas, however, northern tropical Andes glaciers retreated owing to abrupt regional warming in response to reduced precipitation and land-surface feedbacks triggered by a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Conversely, glacier retreat during the Younger Dryas in the southern tropical Andes occurred as a result of progressive warming, probably influenced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Considered with evidence from mid-latitude Andean glaciers, our results argue for a common glacier response to cold conditions in the Antarctic cold reversal exceeding that of the Younger Dryas.

Persistence of full glacial conditions in the central Pacific until 15,000 years ago.

The magnitude of atmospheric cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum and the timing of the transition into the current interglacial period remain poorly constrained in tropical regions, partly because of a lack of suitable climate records. Glacial moraines provide a method of reconstructing past temperatures, but they are relatively rare in the tropics. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric temperatures in the central Pacific during the last deglaciation on the basis of cosmogenic 3He ages of moraines and numerical modelling of the ice cap on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii--the only highland in the central Pacific on which moraines that formed during the last glacial period are preserved. Our reconstruction indicates that the Last Glacial Maximum occurred between 19,000 and 16,000 years ago in this region and that temperatures at high elevations were about 7 degrees C lower than today during this interval. Glacial retreat began about 16,000 years ago, but temperatures were still about 6.5 degrees C lower than today until 15,000 years ago. When combined with estimates of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, our reconstruction indicates that the lapse rate during the Last Glacial Maximum was higher than at present, which is consistent with the proposal that the atmosphere was drier at that time. Furthermore, the persistence of full glacial conditions until 15,000 years ago is consistent with the relatively late and abrupt transition to warmer temperatures in Greenland, indicating that there may have been an atmospheric teleconnection between the central Pacific and North Atlantic regions during the last deglaciation.

In-phase millennial-scale glacier changes in the tropics and North Atlantic regions during the Holocene.

Based on new and published cosmic-ray exposure chronologies, we show that glacier extent in the tropical Andes and the north Atlantic regions (TANAR) varied in-phase on millennial timescales during the Holocene, distinct from other regions. Glaciers experienced an early Holocene maximum extent, followed by a strong mid-Holocene retreat and a re-advance in the late Holocene. We further explore the potential forcing of TANAR glacier variations using transient climate simulations. Since the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolution is poorly represented in these transient simulations, we develop a semi-empirical model to estimate the "AMOC-corrected" temperature and precipitation footprint at regional scales. We show that variations in the AMOC strength during the Holocene are consistent with the observed glacier changes. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain past AMOC behavior, as it may be an important driver of TANAR glacier variations during the Holocene, superimposed on other forcing mechanisms.

Discriminating value of HR-pQCT for fractures in women with similar FRAX scores: A substudy of the FRISBEE cohort.

Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) has a low sensitivity to identify women at high fracture risk. The FRAX algorithm, by combining several clinical risk factors, might improve fracture prediction compared to aBMD alone. Several micro-architectural and biomechanical parameters which can be measured by high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) are associated with fracture risk. HR-pQCT in combination or not with finite element analysis (FEA) may be used to improve bone strength prediction. Our aim was to assess whether HR-pQCT measurements (densities, cortical and trabecular microarchitecture, biomechanical proprieties assessed by FEA) had an added value in predicting fractures in a subgroup of women belonging to the Belgian FRISBEE cohort. One hundred nineteen women who sustained a fracture (aged 60 to 85 years) during the initial follow-up of our cohort had a radius and tibia examination by HR-pQCT and were compared with controls matched for their FRAX score at baseline. We found that low distal radius total (OR = 1.41 [1.07-1.86] per SD, p < 0.05) and trabecular densities (OR = 1.45 [1.10-1.90], p < 0.01), trabecular number (OR = 1.32 [1.01-1.72], p < 0.05), intra individual distribution of separation (OR = 0.73 [0.54-0.99], p < 0.05) as several FEA parameters were significantly associated with fractures. At the distal tibia, impaired cortical density (OR = 1.32 [1.03-1.70] per SD, p < 0.05) and thickness (OR = 1.29 [1.01-1.63], p < 0.05) and apparent modulus (OR = 1.30 [1.01-1.66], p < 0.05) were significantly correlated with fractures. A low ultra distal radial aBMD (UDR) measured at the time of HR-pQCT was significantly associated with fractures (OR = 1.67 [1.22-2.28], p < 0.01). Women from both groups were followed further after the realization of the HR-pQCT and 46 new fractures were registered. In this second part of the study, low UDR aBMD (OR = 1.66 [1.18-2.35], p < 0.01), total (OR = 1.48 [1.08-2.03], p < 0.05), cortical (OR = 1.40 [1.04-1.87], p < 0.05) and trabecular (OR = 1.37 [1.01-1.85], p < 0.05) densities or apparent modulus (OR = 1.49 [1.07-2.05], p < 0.05) at the radius were associated with a significant increase of fracture risk. At the tibia, only the cortical density was significantly associated with the fracture risk (OR = 1.34 [1.02-2.76], p < 0.05). These results confirm the interest of HR-pQCT measurements for the evaluation of fracture risk, also in women matched for their baseline FRAX score. They also highlight that UDR aBMD contains pertinent information.