Predicting Individual Patient Platelet Demand in a Large Tertiary Care Hospital Using Machine Learning.

Introduction: An increasing shortage of donor blood is expected, considering the demographic change in Germany. Due to the short shelf life and varying daily fluctuations in consumption, the storage of platelet concentrates (PCs) becomes challenging. This emphasizes the need for reliable prediction of needed PCs for the blood bank inventories. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate multimodal data from multiple source systems within a hospital to predict the number of platelet transfusions in 3 days on a per-patient level. Methods: Data were collected from 25,190 (42% female and 58% male) patients between 2017 and 2021. For each patient, the number of received PCs, platelet count blood tests, drugs causing thrombocytopenia, acute platelet diseases, procedures, age, gender, and the period of a patient's hospital stay were collected. Two models were trained on samples using a sliding window of 7 days as input and a day 3 target. The model predicts whether a patient will be transfused 3 days in the future. The model was trained with an excessive hyperparameter search using patient-level repeated 5-fold cross-validation to optimize the average macro F2-score. Results: The trained models were tested on 5,022 unique patients. The best-performing model has a specificity of 0.99, a sensitivity of 0.37, an area under the precision-recall curve score of 0.45, an MCC score of 0.43, and an F1-score of 0.43. However, the model does not generalize well for cases when the need for a platelet transfusion is recognized. Conclusion: A patient AI-based platelet forecast could improve logistics management and reduce blood product waste. In this study, we build the first model to predict patient individual platelet demand. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce this approach. Our model predicts the need for platelet units for 3 days in the future. While sensitivity underperforms, specificity performs reliably. The model may be of clinical use as a pretest for potential patients needing a platelet transfusion within the next 3 days. As sensitivity needs to be improved, further studies should introduce deep learning and wider patient characterization to the methodological multimodal, multisource data approach. Furthermore, a hospital-wide consumption of PCs could be derived from individual predictions.

A Face-Aging App for Smoking Cessation in a Waiting Room Setting: Pilot Study in an HIV Outpatient Clinic.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence for the effectiveness of addressing tobacco use in health care settings. However, few smokers receive cessation advice when visiting a hospital. Implementing smoking cessation technology in outpatient waiting rooms could be an effective strategy for change, with the potential to expose almost all patients visiting a health care provider without preluding physician action needed. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop an intervention for smoking cessation that would make use of the time patients spend in a waiting room by passively exposing them to a face-aging, public morphing, tablet-based app, to pilot the intervention in a waiting room of an HIV outpatient clinic, and to measure the perceptions of this intervention among smoking and nonsmoking HIV patients. METHODS: We developed a kiosk version of our 3-dimensional face-aging app Smokerface, which shows the user how their face would look with or without cigarette smoking 1 to 15 years in the future. We placed a tablet with the app running on a table in the middle of the waiting room of our HIV outpatient clinic, connected to a large monitor attached to the opposite wall. A researcher noted all the patients who were using the waiting room. If a patient did not initiate app use within 30 seconds of waiting time, the researcher encouraged him or her to do so. Those using the app were asked to complete a questionnaire. RESULTS: During a 19-day period, 464 patients visited the waiting room, of whom 187 (40.3%) tried the app and 179 (38.6%) completed the questionnaire. Of those who completed the questionnaire, 139 of 176 (79.0%) were men and 84 of 179 (46.9%) were smokers. Of the smokers, 55 of 81 (68%) said the intervention motivated them to quit (men: 45, 68%; women: 10, 67%); 41 (51%) said that it motivated them to discuss quitting with their doctor (men: 32, 49%; women: 9, 60%); and 72 (91%) perceived the intervention as fun (men: 57, 90%; women: 15, 94%). Of the nonsmokers, 92 (98%) said that it motivated them never to take up smoking (men: 72, 99%; women: 20, 95%). Among all patients, 102 (22.0%) watched another patient try the app without trying it themselves; thus, a total of 289 (62.3%) of the 464 patients were exposed to the intervention (average waiting time 21 minutes). CONCLUSIONS: A face-aging app implemented in a waiting room provides a novel opportunity to motivate patients visiting a health care provider to quit smoking, to address quitting at their subsequent appointment and thereby encourage physician-delivered smoking cessation, or not to take up smoking.

[The global medical network Education Against Tobacco-voluntary tobacco prevention made in Germany]. / Das weltweite Medizinernetzwerk Aufklärung gegen Tabak ­ Ehrenamtliche Prävention made in Germany.

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of premature death in Germany. The network "Education Against Tobacco" (EAT) is an initiative that was founded in Germany in 2012, in which more than 3500 medical students and physicians engage in volunteer work in about 80 medical faculties in 14 countries. In this article, the concept, activities, objectives and associated research studies oft he EAT initiative are introduced.On the school level, the initiative addresses 10- to 15-year-old secondary school students. In addition to a multimodal approach, school visits use modern media such as facemorphing apps, which are not only used by students (45,000 per year in 14 countries), but by a total of over 500,000 other people as well. The effectiveness of the school-based intervention is currently being investigated in randomised long-term studies with 20,000 adolescents in Germany. A first long-term study demonstrated evidence of a protective effect regarding the onset of smoking, especially among female students, students having a low level of education and students with a migratory background.The programme educates several hundred prospective physicians at 13 (of 28 participating) German medical faculties each year in science-based elective courses for the well-established smoking cessation counselling of patients and sensitises them to the tobacco epidemic. The approved members engage in dialogue with local members of the German house of representatives as "Ärzteverband Tabakprävention".EAT motivates the prospective generation of physicians, initially through prevention in school settings, to face the challenge of national tobacco control at the university and federal level.

Photoaging Mobile Apps in School-Based Melanoma Prevention: Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Around 90% of melanomas are caused by exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation and are therefore eminently preventable. Tanning behavior is mostly initiated in early adolescence, often with the belief that it increases attractiveness; the problems related to malignant melanoma and other skin cancers are too far in the future to fathom. Given the substantial amount of time children and adolescents spend in schools, as well as with their mobile phones, addressing melanoma prevention via both of these ways is crucial. However, no school-based intervention using mobile apps has been evaluated to date. We recently released a photoaging mobile app, in which a selfie is altered to predict future appearance dependent on UV protection behavior and skin type. OBJECTIVE: In this pilot study, we aimed to use mobile phone technology to improve school-based melanoma prevention and measure its preliminary success in different subgroups of students with regard to their UV protection behavior, Fitzpatrick skin type and age. METHODS: We implemented a free photoaging mobile phone app (Sunface) in 2 German secondary schools via a method called mirroring. We "mirrored" the students' altered 3-dimensional (3D) selfies reacting to touch on mobile phones or tablets via a projector in front of their whole grade. Using an anonymous questionnaire capturing sociodemographic data as well as risk factors for melanoma we then measured their perceptions of the intervention on a 5-point Likert scale among 205 students of both sexes aged 13-19 years (median 15 years). RESULTS: We measured more than 60% agreement in both items that measured motivation to reduce UV exposure and only 12.5% disagreement: 126 (63.0%) agreed or strongly agreed that their 3D selfie motivated them to avoid using a tanning bed, and 124 (61.7%) to increase use of sun protection. However, only 25 (12.5%) disagreed with both items. The perceived effect on motivation was increased in participants with Fitzpatrick skin types 1-2 in both tanning bed avoidance (n=74, 71.8% agreement in skin types 1-2 vs n=50, 53.8% agreement in skin types 3-6) and increased use of sun protection (n=70, 68.0% agreement in skin types 1-2 vs n=52, 55.3% agreement in skin types 3-6), and also positively correlated with higher age. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel way of integrating photoaging in school-based melanoma prevention that affects the students' peer group, considers the predictors of UV exposure in accordance with the theory of planned behavior, and is particularly effective in changing behavioral predictors in fair-skinned adolescents (Fitzpatrick skin types 1-2). Further research is required to evaluate the intervention's prospective effects on adolescents of various cultural backgrounds.

A Medical Student-Delivered Smoking Prevention Program, Education Against Tobacco, for Secondary Schools in Germany: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: More than 8.5 million Germans suffer from chronic diseases attributable to smoking. Education Against Tobacco (EAT) is a multinational network of medical students who volunteer for school-based prevention in the classroom setting, amongst other activities. EAT has been implemented in 28 medical schools in Germany and is present in 13 additional countries around the globe. A recent quasi-experimental study showed significant short-term smoking cessation effects on 11-to-15-year-old adolescents. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to provide the first randomized long-term evaluation of the optimized 2014 EAT curriculum involving a photoaging software for its effectiveness in reducing the smoking prevalence among 11-to-15-year-old pupils in German secondary schools. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial was undertaken with 1504 adolescents from 9 German secondary schools, aged 11-15 years in grades 6-8, of which 718 (47.74%) were identifiable for the prospective sample at the 12-month follow-up. The experimental study design included measurements at baseline (t1), 6 months (t2), and 12 months postintervention (t3), via questionnaire. The study groups consisted of 40 randomized classes that received the standardized EAT intervention (two medical student-led interactive modules taking 120 minutes total) and 34 control classes within the same schools (no intervention). The primary endpoint was the difference in smoking prevalence from t1 to t3 in the control group versus the difference from t1 to t3 in the intervention group. The differences in smoking behavior (smoking onset, quitting) between the two groups, as well as gender-specific effects, were studied as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: None of the effects were significant due to a high loss-to-follow-up effect (52.26%, 786/1504). From baseline to the two follow-up time points, the prevalence of smoking increased from 3.1% to 5.2% to 7.2% in the control group and from 3.0% to 5.4% to 5.8% in the intervention group (number needed to treat [NNT]=68). Notable differences were observed between the groups for the female gender (4.2% to 9.5% for control vs 4.0% to 5.2% for intervention; NNT=24 for females vs NNT=207 for males), low educational background (7.3% to 12% for control vs 6.1% to 8.7% for intervention; NNT=30), and migrational background (students who claimed that at least one parent was not born in Germany) at the 12-month follow-up. The intervention appears to prevent smoking onset (NNT=63) but does not appear to initiate quitting. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention appears to prevent smoking, especially in females and students with a low educational background.

Process Evaluation of a Medical Student-Delivered Smoking Prevention Program for Secondary Schools: Protocol for the Education Against Tobacco Cluster Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Most smokers start smoking during their early adolescence under the impression that smoking entails positive attributes. Given the addictive nature of cigarettes, however, many of them might end up as long-term smokers and suffering from tobacco-related diseases. To prevent tobacco use among adolescents, the large international medical students' network Education Against Tobacco (EAT) educates more than 40,000 secondary school students per year in the classroom setting, using evidence-based self-developed apps and strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of the school-based EAT intervention in reducing smoking prevalence among seventh-grade students in Germany. Additionally, we aimed to improve the intervention by drawing conclusions from our process evaluation. METHODS: We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial with measurements at baseline and 9, 16, and 24 months postintervention via paper-and-pencil questionnaires administered by teachers. The study groups consist of randomized schools receiving the 2016 EAT curriculum and control schools with comparable baseline data (no intervention). The primary outcome is the difference of change in smoking prevalence between the intervention and control groups at the 24-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are between-group differences of changes in smoking-related attitudes and the number of new smokers, quitters, and never-smokers. RESULTS: A total of 11,268 students of both sexes, with an average age of 12.32 years, in seventh grade of 144 secondary schools in Germany were included at baseline. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in our sample was 2.6%. The process evaluation surveys were filled out by 324 medical student volunteers, 63 medical student supervisors, 4896 students, and 141 teachers. CONCLUSIONS: The EAT cluster randomized trial is the largest school-based tobacco-prevention study in Germany conducted to date. Its results will provide important insights with regards to the effectiveness of medical student-delivered smoking prevention programs at school. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/13508.