Going beyond probability of success: Opportunities for statisticians to influence quantitative decision-making at the portfolio level.

The pharmaceutical industry is plagued with long, costly development and high risk. Therefore, a company's effective management and optimisation of a portfolio of projects is critical for success. Project metrics such as the probability of success enable modelling of a company's pipeline accounting for the high uncertainty inherent within the industry. Making portfolio decisions inherently involves managing risk, and statisticians are ideally positioned to champion not only the derivation of metrics for individual projects, but also advocate decision-making at a broader portfolio level. This article aims to examine the existing different portfolio decision-making approaches and to suggest opportunities for statisticians to add value in terms of introducing probabilistic thinking, quantitative decision-making, and increasingly advanced methodologies.

First-Time-in-Human Study and Prediction of Early Bactericidal Activity for GSK3036656, a Potent Leucyl-tRNA Synthetase Inhibitor for Tuberculosis Treatment.

This first-time-in-human (FTIH) study evaluated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and food effect of single and repeat oral doses of GSK3036656, a leucyl-tRNA synthetase inhibitor. In part A, GSK3036656 single doses of 5 mg (fed and fasted), 15 mg, and 25 mg and placebo were administered. In part B, repeat doses of 5 and 15 mg and placebo were administered for 14 days once daily. GSK3036656 showed dose-proportional increase following single-dose administration and after dosing for 14 days. The maximum concentration of drug in serum (Cmax) and area under the concentration-time curve from 0 h to the end of the dosing period (AUC0-τ) showed accumulation with repeated administration of approximately 2- to 3-fold. Pharmacokinetic parameters were not altered in the presence of food. Unchanged GSK3036656 was the only drug-related component detected in plasma and accounted for approximately 90% of drug-related material in urine. Based on total drug-related material detected in urine, the minimum absorbed doses after single (25 mg) and repeat (15 mg) dosing were 50 and 78%, respectively. Unchanged GSK3036656 represented at least 44% and 71% of the 25- and 15-mg doses, respectively. Clinical trial simulations were performed to guide dose escalation during the FTIH study and to predict the GSK3036656 dose range that produces the highest possible early bactericidal activity (EBA0-14) in the prospective phase II trial, with consideration of the predefined exposure limit. GSK3036656 was well tolerated after single and multiple doses, with no reports of serious adverse events. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT03075410.).

A first-in-class leucyl-tRNA synthetase inhibitor, ganfeborole, for rifampicin-susceptible tuberculosis: a phase 2a open-label, randomized trial.

New tuberculosis treatments are needed to address drug resistance, lengthy treatment duration and adverse reactions of available agents. GSK3036656 (ganfeborole) is a first-in-class benzoxaborole inhibiting the Mycobacterium tuberculosis leucyl-tRNA synthetase. Here, in this phase 2a, single-center, open-label, randomized trial, we assessed early bactericidal activity (primary objective) and safety and pharmacokinetics (secondary objectives) of ganfeborole in participants with untreated, rifampicin-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis. Overall, 75 males were treated with ganfeborole (1/5/15/30 mg) or standard of care (Rifafour e-275 or generic alternative) once daily for 14 days. We observed numerical reductions in daily sputum-derived colony-forming units from baseline in participants receiving 5, 15 and 30 mg once daily but not those receiving 1 mg ganfeborole. Adverse event rates were comparable across groups; all events were grade 1 or 2. In a participant subset, post hoc exploratory computational analysis of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography findings showed measurable treatment responses across several lesion types in those receiving ganfeborole 30 mg at day 14. Analysis of whole-blood transcriptional treatment response to ganfeborole 30 mg at day 14 revealed a strong association with neutrophil-dominated transcriptional modules. The demonstrated bactericidal activity and acceptable safety profile suggest that ganfeborole is a potential candidate for combination treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03557281 .