Long-term future risk of severe exacerbations: Distinct 5-year trajectories of problematic asthma.

BACKGROUND: Assessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short- but not long-term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long-term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment. AIM: To identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among "problematic asthma" patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory. METHODS: Severe exacerbation rates over five years for 177 "problematic asthma" patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations ("infrequent"), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently ("nonpersistently frequent"), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near-fatal asthma ("persistently frequent"). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near-fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the "persistently frequent" trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently frequent severe exacerbations in the future.

Pharmacogenetics of esomeprazole or rabeprazole-based triple therapy in Helicobacter pylori eradication in Hong Kong non-ulcer dyspepsia Chinese subjects.

OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to assess the effectiveness of esomeprazole or rabeprazole in combination with amoxicillin and clarithromycin for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori in Hong Kong non-ulcer dyspepsia (NUD) patients. METHODS: A prospective clinical trial was conducted at the Alice Ho Miu ling Nethersole Hospital outpatient endoscopy center from June 2004 to December 2005. Participants received amoxicillin 1 g, clarithromycin 500 mg, and, esomeprazole 20 mg (EAC) or rabeprazole 20 mg (RAC), all given twice daily for 1 week. The H. pylori status was determined by the [13C] urea breath test at least 4 weeks after completion of the treatment. Mutation status of CYP2C19 in exon 4 and exon 5 associated with the poor metabolizer phenotype was determined. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat eradication rates in patients treated with RAC and EAC were 77% and 84.6% respectively, and per protocol-based eradication rates were 83.7% and 88.9% respectively. The eradication rates did not vary with CYP2C19 phenotype found. For clarithromycin-sensitive strains, the cure rates were statistically significant regardless of CYP2C19 polymorphism (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Triple therapy with either EAC or RAC is effective for Hong Kong Chinese NUD patients with H. pylori infection. Success eradication was related to clarithromycin resistance and not CYP2C19 genotype.