Characterizing PFAS hazards and risks: a human population-based in vitro cardiotoxicity assessment strategy.

Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are emerging contaminants of concern because of their wide use, persistence, and potential to be hazardous to both humans and the environment. Several PFAS have been designated as substances of concern; however, most PFAS in commerce lack toxicology and exposure data to evaluate their potential hazards and risks. Cardiotoxicity has been identified as a likely human health concern, and cell-based assays are the most sensible approach for screening and prioritization of PFAS. Human-induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes are a widely used method to test for cardiotoxicity, and recent studies showed that many PFAS affect these cells. Because iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes are available from different donors, they also can be used to quantify human variability in responses to PFAS. The primary objective of this study was to characterize potential human cardiotoxic hazard, risk, and inter-individual variability in responses to PFAS. A total of 56 PFAS from different subclasses were tested in concentration-response using human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes from 16 donors without known heart disease. Kinetic calcium flux and high-content imaging were used to evaluate biologically-relevant phenotypes such as beat frequency, repolarization, and cytotoxicity. Of the tested PFAS, 46 showed concentration-response effects in at least one phenotype and donor; however, a wide range of sensitivities were observed across donors. Inter-individual variability in the effects could be quantified for 19 PFAS, and risk characterization could be performed for 20 PFAS based on available exposure information. For most tested PFAS, toxicodynamic variability was within a factor of 10 and the margins of exposure were above 100. This study identified PFAS that may pose cardiotoxicity risk and have high inter-individual variability. It also demonstrated the feasibility of using a population-based human in vitro method to quantify population variability and identify cardiotoxicity risks of emerging contaminants.

An in vitro-in silico workflow for predicting renal clearance of PFAS.

Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have a wide range of elimination half-lives (days to years) in humans, thought to be in part due to variation in proximal tubule reabsorption. While human biomonitoring studies provide important data for some PFAS, renal clearance (CLrenal) predictions for hundreds of PFAS in commerce requires experimental studies with in vitro models and physiologically-based in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE). Options for studying renal proximal tubule pharmacokinetics include cultures of renal proximal tubule epithelial cells (RPTECs) and/or microphysiological systems. This study aimed to compare CLrenal predictions for PFAS using in vitro models of varying complexity (96-well plates, static 24-well Transwells and a fluidic microphysiological model, all using human telomerase reverse transcriptase-immortalized and OAT1-overexpressing RPTECs combined with in silico physiologically-based IVIVE. Three PFAS were tested: one with a long half-life (PFOS) and two with shorter half-lives (PFHxA and PFBS). PFAS were added either individually (5 µM) or as a mixture (2 µM of each substance) for 48 h. Bayesian methods were used to fit concentrations measured in media and cells to a three-compartmental model to obtain the in vitro permeability rates, which were then used as inputs for a physiologically-based IVIVE model to estimate in vivo CLrenal. Our predictions for human CLrenal of PFAS were highly concordant with available values from in vivo human studies. The relative values of CLrenal between slow- and faster-clearance PFAS were most highly concordant between predictions from 2D culture and corresponding in vivo values. However, the predictions from the more complex model (with or without flow) exhibited greater concordance with absolute CLrenal. Overall, we conclude that a combined in vitro-in silico workflow can predict absolute CLrenal values, and effectively distinguish between PFAS with slow and faster clearance, thereby allowing prioritization of PFAS with a greater potential for bioaccumulation in humans.

Informing Hazard Identification and Risk Characterization of Environmental Chemicals by Combining Transcriptomic and Functional Data from Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem-Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes.

Environmental chemicals may contribute to the global burden of cardiovascular disease, but experimental data are lacking to determine which substances pose the greatest risk. Human-induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes are a high-throughput cardiotoxicity model that is widely used to test drugs and chemicals; however, most studies focus on exploring electro-physiological readouts. Gene expression data may provide additional molecular insights to be used for both mechanistic interpretation and dose-response analyses. Therefore, we hypothesized that both transcriptomic and functional data in human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes may be used as a comprehensive screening tool to identify potential cardiotoxicity hazards and risks of the chemicals. To test this hypothesis, we performed concentration-response analysis of 464 chemicals from 12 classes, including both pharmaceuticals and nonpharmaceutical substances. Functional effects (beat frequency, QT prolongation, and asystole), cytotoxicity, and whole transcriptome response were evaluated. Points of departure were derived from phenotypic and transcriptomic data, and risk characterization was performed. Overall, 244 (53%) substances were active in at least one phenotype; as expected, pharmaceuticals with known cardiac liabilities were the most active. Positive chronotropy was the functional phenotype activated by the largest number of tested chemicals. No chemical class was particularly prone to pose a potential hazard to cardiomyocytes; a varying proportion (10-44%) of substances in each class had effects on cardiomyocytes. Transcriptomic data showed that 69 (15%) substances elicited significant gene expression changes; most perturbed pathways were highly relevant to known key characteristics of human cardiotoxicants. The bioactivity-to-exposure ratios showed that phenotypic- and transcriptomic-based POD led to similar results for risk characterization. Overall, our findings demonstrate how the integrative use of in vitro transcriptomic and phenotypic data from iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes not only offers a complementary approach for hazard and risk prioritization, but also enables mechanistic interpretation of the in vitro test results to increase confidence in decision-making.

Incorporating new approach methods (NAMs) data in dose-response assessments: The future is now!

Regulatory dose-response assessments traditionally rely on in vivo data and default assumptions. New Approach Methods (NAMs) present considerable opportunities to both augment traditional dose-response assessments and accelerate the evaluation of new/data-poor chemicals. This review aimed to determine the potential utilization of NAMs through a unified conceptual framework that compartmentalizes derivation of toxicity values into five sequential Key Dose-response Modules (KDMs): (1) point-of-departure (POD) determination, (2) test system-to-human (e.g. inter-species) toxicokinetics and (3) toxicodynamics, (4) human population (intra-species) variability in toxicodynamics, and (5) toxicokinetics. After using several "traditional" dose-response assessments to illustrate this framework, a review is presented where existing NAMs, including in silico, in vitro, and in vivo approaches, might be applied across KDMs. Further, the false dichotomy between "traditional" and NAMs-derived data sources is broken down by organizing dose-response assessments into a matrix where each KDM has Tiers of increasing precision and confidence: Tier 0: Default/generic values, Tier 1: Computational predictions, Tier 2: Surrogate measurements, and Tier 3: Direct measurements. These findings demonstrated that although many publications promote the use of NAMs in KDMs (1) for POD determination and (5) for human population toxicokinetics, the proposed matrix of KDMs and Tiers reveals additional immediate opportunities for NAMs to be integrated across other KDMs. Further, critical needs were identified for developing NAMs to improve in vitro dosimetry and quantify test system and human population toxicodynamics. Overall, broadening the integration of NAMs across the steps of dose-response assessment promises to yield higher throughput, less animal-dependent, and more science-based toxicity values for protecting human health.

Probabilistic Reference and 10% Effect Concentrations for Characterizing Inhalation Non-cancer and Developmental/Reproductive Effects for 2,160 Substances.

Chemicals assessment and management frameworks rely on regulatory toxicity values, which are based on points of departure (POD) identified following rigorous dose-response assessments. Yet, regulatory PODs and toxicity values for inhalation exposure (i.e., reference concentrations [RfCs]) are available for only ∼200 chemicals. To address this gap, we applied a workflow to determine surrogate inhalation route PODs and corresponding toxicity values, where regulatory assessments are lacking. We curated and selected inhalation in vivo data from the U.S. EPA's ToxValDB and adjusted reported effect values to chronic human equivalent benchmark concentrations (BMCh) following the WHO/IPCS framework. Using ToxValDB chemicals with existing PODs associated with regulatory toxicity values, we found that the 25th %-ile of a chemical's BMCh distribution (PODp25BMCh) could serve as a suitable surrogate for regulatory PODs (Q2 ≥ 0.76, RSE ≤ 0.82 log10 units). We applied this approach to derive PODp25BMCh for 2,095 substances with general non-cancer toxicity effects and 638 substances with reproductive/developmental toxicity effects, yielding a total coverage of 2,160 substances. From these PODp25BMCh, we derived probabilistic RfCs and human population effect concentrations. With this work, we have expanded the number of chemicals with toxicity values available, thereby enabling a much broader coverage for inhalation risk and impact assessment.

Two-Stage Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Points of Departure for Human Noncancer and Developmental/Reproductive Effects.

Chemical points of departure (PODs) for critical health effects are crucial for evaluating and managing human health risks and impacts from exposure. However, PODs are unavailable for most chemicals in commerce due to a lack of in vivo toxicity data. We therefore developed a two-stage machine learning (ML) framework to predict human-equivalent PODs for oral exposure to organic chemicals based on chemical structure. Utilizing ML-based predictions for structural/physical/chemical/toxicological properties from OPERA 2.9 as features (Stage 1), ML models using random forest regression were trained with human-equivalent PODs derived from in vivo data sets for general noncancer effects (n = 1,791) and reproductive/developmental effects (n = 2,228), with robust cross-validation for feature selection and estimating generalization errors (Stage 2). These two-stage models accurately predicted PODs for both effect categories with cross-validation-based root-mean-squared errors less than an order of magnitude. We then applied one or both models to 34,046 chemicals expected to be in the environment, revealing several thousand chemicals of moderate concern and several hundred chemicals of high concern for health effects at estimated median population exposure levels. Further application can expand by orders of magnitude the coverage of organic chemicals that can be evaluated for their human health risks and impacts.

Evaluating scientific confidence in the concordance of in vitro and in vivo protective points of departure.

To fulfil the promise of reducing reliance on mammalian in vivo laboratory animal studies, new approach methods (NAMs) need to provide a confident basis for regulatory decision-making. However, previous attempts to develop in vitro NAMs-based points of departure (PODs) have yielded mixed results, with PODs from U.S. EPA's ToxCast, for instance, appearing more conservative (protective) but poorly correlated with traditional in vivo studies. Here, we aimed to address this discordance by reducing the heterogeneity of in vivo PODs, accounting for species differences, and enhancing the biological relevance of in vitro PODs. However, we only found improved in vitro-to-in vivo concordance when combining the use of Bayesian model averaging-based benchmark dose modeling for in vivo PODs, allometric scaling for interspecies adjustments, and human-relevant in vitro assays with multiple induced pluripotent stem cell-derived models. Moreover, the available sample size was only 15 chemicals, and the resulting level of concordance was only fair, with correlation coefficients <0.5 and prediction intervals spanning several orders of magnitude. Overall, while this study suggests several ways to enhance concordance and thereby increase scientific confidence in vitro NAMs-based PODs, it also highlights challenges in their predictive accuracy and precision for use in regulatory decision making.

Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability.

There are two primary sources of uncertainty in the interpretability of toxicity values, like the reference dose (RfD): estimates of the point of departure (POD) and the absence of chemical-specific human variability data. We hypothesize two solutions-employing Bayesian benchmark dose (BBMD) modeling to refine POD determination and combining high-throughput toxicokinetic modeling with population-based toxicodynamic in vitro data to characterize chemical-specific variability. These hypotheses were tested by deriving refined probabilistic estimates for human doses corresponding to a specific effect size (M) in the Ith population percentile (HDM I) across 19 Superfund priority chemicals. HDM I values were further converted to biomonitoring equivalents in blood and urine for benchmarking against human data. Compared to deterministic default-based RfDs, HDM I values were generally more protective, particularly influenced by chemical-specific data on interindividual variability. Incorporating chemical-specific in vitro data improved precision in probabilistic RfDs, with a median 1.4-fold reduction in uncertainty variance. Comparison with US Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Forecasting exposure predictions and biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey identified chemicals with margins of exposure nearing or below one. Overall, to mitigate uncertainty in regulatory toxicity values and guide chemical risk management, BBMD modeling and chemical-specific population-based human in vitro data are essential.

Cancer risk associated with soil distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons within three environmental justice neighborhoods in Houston, Texas.

Residents and advocacy groups began voicing concerns over the environmental quality located in the neighborhoods of Kashmere Gardens, Fifth Ward, and Denver Harbor in Houston, TX, following the confirmation of a cancer cluster in 2019 and another in 2021. These neighborhoods are in close proximity to a railyard and former wood treatment plant known to have utilized coal tar creosote and contain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This research took core soil samples in September and October 2020 from 46 sites to assess for the presence and concentration of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) 7 Carcinogenic PAHs. Results showed the cumulative concentration of these PAHs in each sample was variable with a range of 13,767 ng/g to 328 ng/g and a mean of 2,517.2 ng/g ± 3122. A regional soil screening evaluation revealed that 40 of the 46 soil samples were in excess of the USEPAs most conservative screening levels of 1.0 × 10-6 increased cancer risk, but none exceeding levels considered actionable for remediation. This study is a fundamental first step for quantifying the environmental pollutants in this minority-majority community. Findings revealed a low risk of cancer risk based on current PAH concentrations alone but cannot assess contributions from other contaminants or from past, possibly higher, levels of contamination. Further research is needed to identify the potential casual pathways of the observed cancer cluster and to explore possible remediation needs.

Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States.

Accurate estimates of infection prevalence and seroprevalence are essential for evaluating and informing public health responses and vaccination coverage needed to address the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in each United States (U.S.) state. However, reliable, timely data based on representative population sampling are unavailable, and reported case and test positivity rates are highly biased. A simple data-driven Bayesian semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and used to evaluate state-level prevalence and seroprevalence of COVID-19 using daily reported cases and test positivity ratios. The model was calibrated to and validated using published state-wide seroprevalence data, and further compared against two independent data-driven mathematical models. The prevalence of undiagnosed COVID-19 infections is found to be well-approximated by a geometrically weighted average of the positivity rate and the reported case rate. Our model accurately fits state-level seroprevalence data from across the U.S. Prevalence estimates of our semi-empirical model compare favorably to those from two data-driven epidemiological models. As of December 31, 2020, we estimate nation-wide a prevalence of 1.4% [Credible Interval (CrI): 1.0%-1.9%] and a seroprevalence of 13.2% [CrI: 12.3%-14.2%], with state-level prevalence ranging from 0.2% [CrI: 0.1%-0.3%] in Hawaii to 2.8% [CrI: 1.8%-4.1%] in Tennessee, and seroprevalence from 1.5% [CrI: 1.2%-2.0%] in Vermont to 23% [CrI: 20%-28%] in New York. Cumulatively, reported cases correspond to only one third of actual infections. The use of this simple and easy-to-communicate approach to estimating COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence will improve the ability to make public health decisions that effectively respond to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Using Prior Toxicological Data to Support Dose-Response Assessment─Identifying Plausible Prior Distributions for Dichotomous Dose-Response Models.

The benchmark dose (BMD) methodology has significantly advanced the practice of dose-response analysis and created substantial opportunities to enhance the plausibility of BMD estimation by synthesizing dose-response information from different sources. Particularly, integrating existing toxicological information via prior distribution in a Bayesian framework is a promising but not well-studied strategy. The study objective is to identify a plausible way to incorporate toxicological information through informative prior to support BMD estimation using dichotomous data. There are four steps in this study: determine appropriate types of distribution for parameters in common dose-response models, estimate the parameters of the determined distributions, investigate the impact of alternative strategies of prior implementation, and derive endpoint-specific priors to examine how prior-eliciting data affect priors and BMD estimates. A plausible distribution was estimated for each parameter in the common dichotomous dose-response models using a general database. Alternative strategies for implementing informative prior have a limited impact on BMD estimation, but using informative prior can significantly reduce uncertainty in BMD estimation. Endpoint-specific informative priors are substantially different from the general one, highlighting the necessity for guidance on prior elicitation. The study developed a practical way to employ informative prior and laid a foundation for advanced Bayesian BMD modeling.

Biosensor applications in contaminated estuaries: Implications for disaster research response.

BACKGROUND: Given the time and monetary costs associated with traditional analytical chemistry, there remains a need to rapidly characterize environmental samples for priority analysis, especially within disaster research response (DR2). As PAHs are both ubiquitous and occur as complex mixtures at many National Priority List sites, these compounds are of interest for post-disaster exposures. OBJECTIVE: This study tests the field application of the KinExA Inline Biosensor in Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel (GB/HSC) and in the Elizabeth River, characterizing the PAH profiles of these region's soils and sediments. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the biosensor to include soils. METHODS: The biosensor enables calculation of total free PAHs in porewater (C free), which is confirmed through gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis. To determine potential risk of the collected soils the United States Environmental Protection (USEPA) Agency's Regional Screening Level (RSL) Calculator is used along with the USEPA Region 4 Ecological Screening Values (R4-ESV) and Refined Screening Values (R4-RSV). RESULTS: Based on GC-MS results, all samples had PAH-related hazard indices below 1, indicating low noncarcinogenic risks, but some samples exceeded screening levels for PAH-associated cancer risks. Combining biosensor-based C free with Total Organic Carbon yields predictions highly correlated (r > 0.5) both with total PAH concentrations as well as with hazard indices and cancer risks. Additionally, several individual parent PAH concentrations in both the GB/HSC and Elizabeth River sediments exceeded the R4- ESV and R4-RSV values, indicating a need for follow-up sediment studies. CONCLUSIONS: The resulting data support the utility of the biosensor for future DR2 efforts to characterize PAH contamination, enabling preliminary PAH exposure risk screening to aid in prioritization of environmental sample analysis.

Model systems and organisms for addressing inter- and intra-species variability in risk assessment.

Addressing inter- and intra-species differences in potential hazardous effects of chemicals remains a long-standing challenge in human health risk assessment that is typically addressed heuristically through use of 10-fold default "uncertainty" or "safety" factors. Although it has long been recognized that chemical-specific data would be preferable to replace the "defaults," only recently have there emerged experimental model systems and organisms with the potential to experimentally quantify the population variability in both toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics for specific chemicals. Progress is most evident in the use of population in vitro human cell-based models and population in vivo mouse models. Multiple case studies were published in the past 10-15 years that clearly demonstrate the utility of such models to derive data with direct application to quantifying variability at hazard identification, exposure-response assessment, and mechanistic understanding of toxicity steps of traditional risk assessments. Here, we review recent efforts to develop fit-for-purpose approaches utilizing these novel population-based in vitro and in vivo models in the context of risk assessment. We also describe key challenges and opportunities to broadening application of population-based experimental approaches. We conclude that population-based models are now beginning to realize their potential to address long-standing data gaps in inter- and intra-species variability.

Characterization of population variability of 1,3-butadiene derived protein adducts in humans and mice.

1,3-butadiene is a known human carcinogen and a chemical to which humans are exposed occupationally and through environmental pollution. Inhalation risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene was completed several decades ago before data on molecular biomarkers of exposure and effect have been reported from both human studies of workers and experimental studies in mice. To improve risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene, the quantitative characterization of uncertainty in estimations of inter-individual variability in cancer-related effects is needed. For this, we ought to take advantage of the availability of the data on 1,3-butadiene hemoglobin adducts, well established biomarkers of the internal dose of the reactive epoxides, from several large-scale human studies and from a study in a Collaborative Cross mouse population. We found that in humans, toxicokinetic uncertainty factor for 99th percentile of the population ranged from 3.27 to 7.9, depending on the hemoglobin adduct. For mice, these values ranged from less than 2 to 7.51, depending on the dose and the adduct. Quantitative estimated from this study can be used to reduce uncertainties in the parameter estimates used in the models to derive the inhalation unit risk, as well as to address possible differences in variability in 1,3-butadiene metabolism that may be dose-related.

Characterization of Compositional Variability in Petroleum Substances.

In the process of registration of substances of Unknown or Variable Composition, Complex Reaction Products or Biological Materials (UVCBs), information sufficient to enable substance identification must be provided. Substance identification for UVCBs formed through petroleum refining is particularly challenging due to their chemical complexity, as well as variability in refining process conditions and composition of the feedstocks. This study aimed to characterize compositional variability of petroleum UVCBs both within and across product categories. We utilized ion mobility spectrometry (IMS)-MS as a technique to evaluate detailed chemical composition of independent production cycle-derived samples of 6 petroleum products from 3 manufacturing categories (heavy aromatic, hydrotreated light paraffinic, and hydrotreated heavy paraffinic). Atmospheric pressure photoionization and drift tube IMS-MS were used to identify structurally related compounds and quantified between- and within-product variability. In addition, we determined both individual molecules and hydrocarbon blocks that were most variable in samples from different production cycles. We found that detailed chemical compositional data on petroleum UVCBs obtained from IMS-MS can provide the information necessary for hazard and risk characterization in terms of quantifying the variability of the products in a manufacturing category, as well as in subsequent production cycles of the same product.

Cardiotoxicity Hazard and Risk Characterization of ToxCast Chemicals Using Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocytes from Multiple Donors.

Heart disease remains a significant human health burden worldwide with a significant fraction of morbidity attributable to environmental exposures. However, the extent to which the thousands of chemicals in commerce and the environment may contribute to heart disease morbidity is largely unknown, because in contrast to pharmaceuticals, environmental chemicals are seldom tested for potential cardiotoxicity. Human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes have become an informative in vitro model for cardiotoxicity testing of drugs with the availability of cells from multiple individuals allowing in vitro testing of population variability. In this study, we hypothesized that a panel of iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes from healthy human donors can be used to screen for the potential cardiotoxicity hazard and risk of environmental chemicals. We conducted concentration-response testing of 1029 chemicals (drugs, pesticides, flame retardants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), plasticizers, industrial chemicals, food/flavor/fragrance agents, etc.) in iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes from 5 donors. We used kinetic calcium flux and high-content imaging to derive quantitative measures as inputs into Bayesian population concentration-response modeling of the effects of each chemical. We found that many environmental chemicals pose a hazard to human cardiomyocytes in vitro with more than half of all chemicals eliciting positive or negative chronotropic or arrhythmogenic effects. However, most of the tested environmental chemicals for which human exposure and high-throughput toxicokinetics data were available had wide margins of exposure and, thus, do not appear to pose a significant human health risk in a general population. Still, relatively narrow margins of exposure (<100) were estimated for some perfuoroalkyl substances and phthalates, raising concerns that cumulative exposures may pose a cardiotoxicity risk. Collectively, this study demonstrated the value of using a population-based human in vitro model for rapid, high-throughput hazard and risk characterization of chemicals for which little to no cardiotoxicity data are available from guideline studies in animals.

Intra- and Inter-Species Variability in Urinary N7-(1-Hydroxy-3-buten-2-yl)guanine Adducts Following Inhalation Exposure to 1,3-Butadiene.

1,3-Butadiene is a known carcinogen primarily targeting lymphoid tissues, lung, and liver. Cytochrome P450 activates butadiene to epoxides which form covalent DNA adducts that are thought to be a key mechanistic event in cancer. Previous studies suggested that inter-species, -tissue, and -individual susceptibility to adverse health effects of butadiene exposure may be due to differences in metabolism and other mechanisms. In this study, we aimed to examine the extent of inter-individual and inter-species variability in the urinary N7-(1-hydroxy-3-buten-2-yl)guanine (EB-GII) DNA adduct, a well-known biomarker of exposure to butadiene. For a population variability study in mice, we used the collaborative cross model. Female and male mice from five strains were exposed to filtered air or butadiene (590 ppm, 6 h/day, 5 days/week for 2 weeks) by inhalation. Urine samples were collected, and the metabolic activation of butadiene by DNA-reactive species was quantified as urinary EB-GII adducts. We quantified the degree of EB-GII variation across mouse strains and sexes; then, we compared this variation with the data from rats (exposed to 62.5 or 200 ppm butadiene) and humans (0.004-2.2 ppm butadiene). We show that sex and strain are significant contributors to the variability in urinary EB-GII levels in mice. In addition, we find that the degree of variability in urinary EB-GII in collaborative cross mice, when expressed as an uncertainty factor for the inter-individual variability (UFH), is relatively modest (≤threefold) possibly due to metabolic saturation. By contrast, the variability in urinary EB-GII (adjusted for exposure) observed in humans, while larger than the default value of 10-fold, is largely consistent with UFH estimates for other chemicals based on human data for non-cancer endpoints. Overall, these data demonstrate that urinary EB-GII levels, particularly from human studies, may be useful for quantitative characterization of human variability in cancer risks to butadiene.

A new approach method for characterizing inter-species toxicodynamic variability.

Inter-species differences in toxicodynamics are often a critical source of uncertainty in safety evaluations and typically dealt with using default adjustment factors. In vitro studies that use cells from different species demonstrated some success for estimating the relationships between life span and/or body weight and sensitivity to cytotoxicity; however, no apparent investigation evaluated the utility of these models for risk assessment. It was hypothesized that an in vitro model using dermal fibroblasts derived from diverse species and individuals might be utilized to inform the extent of inter-species and inter-individual variability in toxicodynamics. To test this hypothesis and characterize both inter-species and inter-individual variability in cytotoxicity, concentration-response cytotoxicity screening of 40 chemicals in primary dermal fibroblasts from 68 individuals of 54 diverse species was conducted. Chemicals examined included drugs, environmental pollutants, and food/flavor/fragrance agents; most of these were previously assessed either in vivo or in vitro for inter-species or inter-individual variation. Species included humans, the typical preclinical species and representatives from other orders of mammals and birds. Data demonstrated that both inter-species and inter-individual components of variability contribute to the observed differences in sensitivity to cell death. Further, it was found that the magnitude of the observed inter-species and inter-individual differences was chemical-dependent. This study contributes to the paradigm shift in risk assessment from reliance on in vivo toxicity testing to higher-throughput in vitro or alternative approaches, extending the strategy to replace use of default adjustment factors with experimental characterization of toxicodynamic inter-individual variability and to also address toxicodynamic inter-species variability.

A Bayesian population physiologically based pharmacokinetic absorption modeling approach to support generic drug development: application to bupropion hydrochloride oral dosage forms.

We propose a Bayesian population modeling and virtual bioequivalence assessment approach to establishing dissolution specifications for oral dosage forms. A generalizable semi-physiologically based pharmacokinetic absorption model with six gut segments and liver, connected to a two-compartment model of systemic disposition for bupropion hydrochloride oral dosage forms was developed. Prior information on model parameters for gut physiology, bupropion physicochemical properties, and drug product properties were obtained from the literature. The release of bupropion hydrochloride from immediate-, sustained- and extended-release oral dosage forms was described by a Weibull function. In vitro dissolution data were used to assign priors to the in vivo release properties of the three bupropion formulations. We applied global sensitivity analysis to identify the influential parameters for plasma bupropion concentrations and calibrated them. To quantify inter- and intra-individual variability, plasma concentration profiles in healthy volunteers that received the three dosage forms, each at two doses, were used. The calibrated model was in good agreement with both in vitro dissolution and in vivo exposure data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples from the joint posterior parameter distribution were used to simulate virtual crossover clinical trials for each formulation with distinct drug dissolution profiles. For each trial, an allowable range of dissolution parameters ("safe space") in which bioequivalence can be anticipated was established. These findings can be used to assure consistent product performance throughout the drug product life-cycle and to support manufacturing changes. Our framework provides a comprehensive approach to support decision-making in drug product development.

Recent Advances in Probabilistic Dose-Response Assessment to Inform Risk-Based Decision Making.

Paradoxically, risk assessments for the majority of chemicals lack any quantitative characterization as to the likelihood, incidence, or severity of the risks involved. The relatively few cases where "risk" is truly quantified are based on either epidemiologic data or extrapolation of experimental animal cancer bioassay data. The paucity of chemicals and health endpoints for which such data are available severely limits the ability of decisionmakers to account for the impacts of chemical exposures on human health. The development by the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety (WHO/IPCS) in 2014 of a comprehensive framework for probabilistic dose-response assessment has opened the door to a myriad of potential advances to better support decision making. Building on the pioneering work of Evans, Hattis, and Slob from the 1990s, the WHO/IPCS framework provides both a firm conceptual foundation as well as practical implementation tools to simultaneously assess uncertainty, variability, and severity of effect as a function of exposure. Moreover, such approaches do not depend on the availability of epidemiologic data, nor are they limited to cancer endpoints. Recent work has demonstrated the broad feasibility of such approaches in order to estimate the functional relationship between exposure level and the incidence or severity of health effects. While challenges remain, such as better characterization of the relationship between endpoints observed in experimental animal or in vitro studies and human health effects, the WHO/IPCS framework provides a strong basis for expanding the breadth of risk management decision contexts supported by chemical risk assessment.