Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022.

BackgroundSince May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging.AimWe aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred.MethodsColleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution.ResultsWe included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4-11 days).ConclusionCurrent public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days.

Evaluation of antiretroviral therapy results in a resource-poor setting in Blantyre, Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate treatment results of the paying antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic of Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a large public and teaching hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. The only ART was a fixed drug combination of stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine. METHODS: Cross sectional study with interviews, laboratory tests (CD4 count, viral load, nevirapine plasma levels, transaminases) and data extraction from files. RESULTS: A total of 422 (59%) of the patients who started ART since 2000 were lost to follow-up. The 176 patients enrolled in the study had good virological and excellent clinical treatment results. The most common side effect was peripheral neuropathy. Nevirapine plasma levels were remarkably high and associated with successful virological treatment results. Two simple adherence questions pertaining to the use of medication in the previous 8 days corresponded well with nevirapine levels. The most important reasons for non-adherence were shortage of drugs in the hospital pharmacy and personal financial constraints. CONCLUSIONS: (1) Many patients were lost to follow-up. (2) High nevirapine levels contributed to good therapy results in those studied. (3) Simple adherence questions predicted subtherapeutic nevirapine levels. (4) Antiretroviral drug supply needs to be uninterrupted and free of charge, to prevent avoidable non-adherence.