Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials. METHODS: We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered 'real world' constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating 'real world' constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries' GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh. CONCLUSION: Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

Health-seeking behaviour among adults with prolonged cough in Vietnam.

OBJECTIVE: To assess health-seeking behaviour among adults with prolonged cough in a population-based, nationally representative sample in Vietnam. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey conducted from September 2006 to July 2007. All inhabitants aged ≥15 years were invited for screening for cough, history of tuberculosis (TB) treatment and chest X-ray (CXR) examination. TB suspects, defined as any survey participant with CXR abnormalities consistent with TB, or productive cough for more than 2 weeks or TB treatment either currently or in the preceding 2 years submitted sputum specimens for smear examination and culture and provided information on health-seeking behaviour in an in-depth interview. RESULTS: Of 94 179 persons participating in the survey, 4.6% had prolonged productive cough. Forty-four percentage of those had sought health care and reported pharmacies (35%), commune health posts (29%), public hospitals (24%) and private physicians (10%) as first point of contact. Only 7% had undergone sputum smear examination. Of TB suspects with prolonged productive cough, 2.9% were diagnosed with TB; 10.2% of these reported smear and 21.9% reported X-ray examination when visiting a health care facility. The average patient delay was 4.1 weeks (95% CI: 3.9-4.4) among cough suspects and 4.0 weeks (95% CI: 3.1-4.9) among TB cases. CONCLUSIONS: In this Vietnamese survey, nearly half of persons with cough for more than 2 weeks had visited a health care provider. The commonest first health facility contacted was the pharmacy. Sputum smears were rarely examined, except in the provincial TB hospital. Our findings highlight the need to improve diagnostic practices by retraining health staff on the performance of sputum examination for TB suspects.

Predictive value for progression to tuberculosis by IGRA and TST in immigrant contacts.

The authors determined the positive predictive value (PPV) for progression to tuberculosis (TB) of two interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs), QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT.TB, and the tuberculin skin test (TST) in immigrants contacts. Immigrant close contacts of sputum smear-positive TB patients were included when aged > or =16 yrs and their TST result was > or =5 mm 0 or 3 months after diagnosis of the index patient. Contacts were followed for the next 2 yrs for development of TB disease. Of 339 immigrant contacts with TST > or =5 mm, 324 and 299 had valid results of QFT-GIT and T-SPOT.TB, respectively. Nine contacts developed active TB. One patient had not been tested with TST, while another patient had not been tested with QFT-GIT and T-SPOT.TB. The PPV for progression to TB during this period was 9/288 = 3.1% (95% CI 1.3-5.0%) for TST > or =10 mm, 7/184 = 3.8% (95% CI 1.7-5.9%) for TST > or =15 mm, 5/178 = 2.8% (95% CI 1.0-4.6%) for QFT-GIT and 6/181 = 3.3% (95% CI 1.3-5.3%) for T-SPOT.TB. Sensitivity was 100%, 88%, 63% and 75%, respectively. The predictive values of QFT-GIT, T-SPOT.TB and TST for progression to TB disease among immigrant close contacts were comparable.

Interferon-gamma release assays in immigrant contacts and effect of remote exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between remote exposure to tuberculosis (TB) and results of the tuberculin skin test (TST), and two interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs)-QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT.TB-in immigrant contacts of sputum smear-positive TB patients. METHODS: Immigrants aged >or=16 years in close contact with smear-positive TB patients were included. QFT-GIT and T-SPOT.TB were performed if the TST induration size was >or=5 mm. Associations between test results and origin from an endemic country were assessed. RESULTS: Of 433 close contacts, 322 (74%) had TST >or=5 mm, of whom, 282 (88%) had valid test results for all assays. Positive QFT-GIT results were obtained for 152/282 (54%) and positive T-SPOT.TB for 168/282 (60%). After adjustment for age, sex and recent contact, positive IGRA results and TST results >/=10 mm were found to be more frequent among immigrants who originated from Africa, in particular sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: When IGRAs are used to determine latent TB infection in foreign-born individuals, positive findings not only relate to recent TB infection, but also reflect prior TB exposure in the country of origin. This late reactivity will limit their usefulness in contact investigations among immigrants originating from endemic areas.

Organisation of a tuberculosis prevalence survey.

Measuring tuberculosis (TB) prevalence trends provides information on progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. The World Health Organization recently published guidelines on assessing TB prevalence through population-based surveys. The current manuscript describes in detail the organisation of the field activities in such a survey. These activities need to be embedded in a strong organisational framework where the steering committee has the overall responsibility and the survey coordinator the day-to-day supervision. Field activities need to be tailored to the community, with respect to both time and place and direct involvement of community members. Frequent and well-described monitoring procedures need to be in place to be able to identify systematic and non-systematic errors at the earliest opportunity.

High tuberculosis prevalence in a psychiatric hospital in Vietnam.

Little is known about tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in psychiatric hospitals in Vietnam, but prevalence may be higher than in the general population. We assessed the TB prevalence among in-patients of a psychiatric hospital in 2005 in Danang City, Vietnam. Of 300 in-patients, 70 had an abnormal X-ray or prolonged cough, and underwent sputum smear examinations. The prevalence of smear-positive TB was 0.33% (1/300, 95%CI 0.008-1.9). Twenty-three (7.7%) patients had X-ray lesions suggesting active TB and 22 (7.3%) had a history of TB treatment. TB prevalence was high in this psychiatric hospital, and TB infection control needs strengthening.

Steep increases in tuberculosis notification among young men in the industrialised districts of Danang, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) notification is increasing among young adults in urban provinces in Vietnam, despite having achieved World Health Organization targets for treatment success and case detection. OBJECTIVES: To identify causes for non-declining TB case rates in an urban area of Vietnam, and to describe trends in new smear-positive pulmonary TB notification by age, sex and district in the period 1999-2004 in Danang City, Vietnam. RESULTS: Age and sex-standardised notification rates declined by 1.3% (95%CI -2.3-0.3%) annually. Notification rates among men aged 15-44 in Danang City increased significantly (5%, 95%CI 2.4-7.7 annually), most notably in industrialised districts (>or=12% annually). CONCLUSION: TB notification rates among young men in an urban setting in Vietnam increased most notably in industrialised districts. We hypothesise that this is due to poor living and working conditions and internal migration rather than to an emerging human immunodeficiency virus epidemic.

HIV-related mortality among tuberculosis patients in The Netherlands, 1993-2001.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in tuberculosis (TB) patients in The Netherlands during the period 1993-2001 was associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted odds ratio 4.71, P < 0.002). Age and sex-standardised mortality rates among HIV-infected TB patients decreased significantly over time, from 22.9% in 1993-1995 to 11.8% in 1999-2001 (P < 0.001). No such change was observed for HIV-negative patients. The decrease in mortality is likely due to the more widespread use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

Survival and relapse rate of tuberculosis patients who successfully completed treatment in Vietnam.

SETTING: Reported tuberculosis (TB) cure rates are high in Vietnam with the 8-month short-course chemotherapy regimen. However, long-term treatment outcomes are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess survival and relapse rates among patients successfully treated for new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). METHODS: A cohort of patients treated in 32 randomly selected districts in northern Vietnam were followed up 12-24 months after reported cure or treatment success for survival and bacteriologically confirmed relapse. Measurements included sputum smear examination, culture and interview for recent treatment history. RESULTS: Of 304 patients included in the study, no information was available for 31 (10%) and 19 (6%) had died. Bacteriology results were available for 244 (80%). The median interval between treatment completion and follow-up was 19 months. Relapse was recorded in 21/244 (8.6%, 95%CI 5.4-13), including 9 (4%) with positive sputum smears, 3 (1%) with negative smears but positive culture and 9 (4%) who had started TB retreatment. Four of 12 culture-positive relapse cases (33%) had multidrug-resistant strains. If the definition of relapse was extended to include death, reportedly due to TB, the relapse proportion was 26/263 (9.9%, 95%CI 6.6-14). CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of patients (15%) had died or relapsed after being successfully treated for TB in northern Vietnam.

Low tuberculosis notification in mountainous Vietnam is not due to low case detection: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Studies show that tuberculosis notification declines with increasing altitude. This can be due to declining incidence or declining case detection. In Vietnam notification rates of new smear-positive tuberculosis in the central mountainous provinces (26/100,000 population) are considerably lower than in Vietnam in general (69/100,000 population). In order to clarify whether this is explained by low incidence or low case detection, we aimed to assess the prevalence of new smear-positive tuberculosis among adults with prolonged cough in three mountainous provinces in central Vietnam. METHODS: A house-to-house survey of persons (> or = 15 years) was carried out in twelve randomly selected districts in 2003. Three sputum specimens were microscopically examined of persons reporting a prolonged cough (> or = 3 weeks). Case detection was assessed by the ratio between notification and prevalence. RESULTS: Of 68,946 included persons (95% response), 1,298 (1.9% 95%CI 1.8-2.2) reported a prolonged cough. Of these, eighteen were sputum smear-positive of whom two had had anti-tuberculosis treatment. The prevalence of new smear-positive tuberculosis was 27/100,000 (95%CI 11-44/100,000) and the notification rate was 44/100,000 among persons > or = 15 years. The estimated case detection rate was 76%. CONCLUSION: Low tuberculosis notification in this mountainous setting is probably a true reflection of low tuberculosis incidence. Possible causes for low incidence in mountainous areas include low transmission rates or altitude-related differences in pathology.

[HIV-test policy for tuberculosis patients in the Netherlands]. / Hiv-testbeleid bij tuberculosepatiënten in Nederland.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the proportion of tuberculosis patients tested for HIV infection, before and after introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the Netherlands, and to analyse predictive factors for performing an HTV-test in this population. DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: Whether patients had been tested for HIV, was investigated in random samples consisting of 200 patients, who were registered in the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register (NTR) in the years 1995 and 2001 respectively. RESULTS: The number of patients tested for HIV was 29 out of 84 (16%) in 1995, and 39 out of 190 (21%) in 2001 (not significant). HIV-tests had been carried out most frequently among homeless patients (71%), drug addicts (56%) and alcohol-abusing patients (60%). Significant predictive factors for HIV testing were place of residence (city), localisation of disease (pulmonary tuberculosis in combination with extrapulmonary tuberculosis) and place of origin (sub-Saharan Africa). CONCLUSION: Despite introduction of HAART during this period, in the Netherlands the proportion of tuberculosis patients tested for HIV did not significantly increase between 1995 and 2001. HIV testing was mainly limited to tuberculosis patients from risk groups.

Tuberculosis resistance-conferring mutations with fitness cost among HIV-positive individuals in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is considered to be less transmissible due to the fitness cost associated with drug resistance-conferring mutations in essential genes. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that TB drug resistance-conferring mutations with fitness cost are more frequent among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive than among HIV-negative patients. DESIGN: We analysed all strains from the two TB drug resistance surveys conducted in Uganda between 2008 and 2011. Strains phenotypically susceptible to rifampicin and/or isoniazid were assumed to be wild-type; in all other cases, we performed whole-genome sequencing. Mutations at the rpoB531 and katG315 codons were considered without fitness loss, whereas other rpoB codons and non-katG were considered with fitness loss. RESULTS: Of the 897 TB patients, 286 (32.1%) were HIV-positive. Mutations with fitness loss in HIV-positive and HIV-negative patients were respectively as follows: non-531 rpoB: 1.03% (n = 3), 0.71% (n = 4) (OR 1.46, 95%CI 0.58-3.68); non-katG: 0.40% (n = 1), 1.0% (n = 6) (OR 0.40, 95%CI 0.07-2.20); rpoB531: 1.49% (n = 4), 0.69% (n = 4) (OR 2.29, 95%CI 0.83-5.77); katG315: 3.86% (n = 11), 2.55% (n = 15) (OR 1.54, 95%CI 0.81-2.90). The odds of mutations with and without fitness cost were higher for patients with a history of previous anti-tuberculosis treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not support the hypothesis that resistance-conferring mutations with fitness cost are likely to be often present in HIV-positive individuals.

HIV prevalence among tuberculosis patients in The Netherlands, 1993-2001: trends and risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the prevalence and predictive factors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among tuberculosis (TB) patients in The Netherlands during the period 1993-2001. DESIGN: Data were obtained from the national surveillance register of all patients notified with TB (all forms) during the period of the study. In addition, records or discharge notes were checked of a random sample of 200 TB patients notified in 1995 and another 200 in 2001. RESULTS: Of 13 269 patients diagnosed with TB, 542 were HIV-positive (4.1%). Prevalence was 4.1% in 1993-1995, 3.8% in 1996-1998 and 4.4% in 1999-2001. The highest prevalence was observed among drug users (29.2%), homeless patients (20.1%) and patients residing illegally in the country (9.1%). Compared with the period 1993-1995, the relative risk of HIV infection in the periods 1996-1998 and 1999-2001 decreased significantly for drug using patients (P = 0.006), and increased for patients from African countries (P < 0.001). According to patient records, 29/184 (16%) had been tested for HIV in 1995 and 39/190 (21%) in 2001 (P = 0.289); 18 patients tested positive (4.8%). CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of HIV among TB patients in The Netherlands remained stable between 1993 and 2001, the distribution of risk groups changed over this period.

Drug resistance among smear-positive tuberculosis patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the pattern of drug resistance among smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) patients in an inner city area in Vietnam. METHODS: A random sample of patients diagnosed by the national TB programme (NTP) were offered HIV testing and submitted sputum for Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug sensitivity testing. RESULTS: Of 1433 isolates from new patients, 360 (25%) were resistant to isoniazid (INH), 57 (4.0%) to rifampicin (RMP), 421 (29%) to streptomycin (SM) and 28 (2.0%) to ethambutol. Among 401 previously treated patients, this was 218 (54%), 109 (27%), 217 (54%) and 26 (7%), respectively. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was observed in 55 (3.8%) new and 102 (25%) previously treated patients. RMP resistance was strongly associated with resistance to INH (OR 46) and INH plus SM (OR 91, P = 0.004). Prevalence of drug resistance tended to decrease with age. Neither any resistance nor MDR was significantly associated with HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: In this inner city area, levels of drug resistance, in particular of MDR among previously treated patients, are high. This may be related to the use of NTP regimens in the context of highly prevalent combined SM and INH resistance which may favour acquisition of RMP resistance.

Treatment outcomes by drug resistance and HIV status among tuberculosis patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the combined effects of drug resistance, HIV infection and treatment regimen on treatment outcomes of smear-positive tuberculosis patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. METHODS: A representative sample of patients diagnosed in 1998-2000 in 12 urban districts was offered HIV testing and submitted sputum for Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture and drug susceptibility testing. New patients were treated with 2SHRZ/6HE in nine districts and with 2SHRZ/4RH in three districts. RESULTS: The cure rate was 87% (1240/1430) among new patients compared to only 73% (287/391) among previously treated patients. Failure was associated with multidrug resistance (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] 49.6 and 16.6, respectively) and combined resistance to isoniazid (INH) and streptomycin (SM) (aOR 13.4 and 4.8), but not with HIV infection. New patients had an increased risk of failure on treatment with 2SHRZ/4RH compared to 2SHRZ/6HE if the isolate was resistant to INH and SM (aOR 2.8, P = 0.016). Death during treatment occurred in 15 of 50 HIV-infected patients (30%). Mortality was significantly associated with HIV infection (aOR 29.9), multidrug resistance (aOR 4.7) and other resistance to two or more drugs (aOR 2.1). CONCLUSION: In Vietnam, adaptation of treatment regimens should be considered, and interventions are needed to reduce the high mortality among HIV-infected patients.

Evaluation of sputum smear microscopy in the National Tuberculosis Control Programme in the north of Vietnam.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the yield of sputum smear microscopy and sex differences in the National Tuberculosis Control Programme in the north of Vietnam. METHODS: Review of registers of 30 randomly selected laboratories (26 district, 4 provincial level). RESULTS: The average daily workload per technician was 4.4 examinations in district and 5.3 examinations in provincial laboratories. To find one smear-positive case, 9.7 suspects were examined and 29.3 smears done. The smear-positive rate (mean 10.3%) was higher among men (11.6%) than among women (8.4%, P < 0.001). There were more men than women among tuberculosis (TB) suspects (male:female ratio 1.36, 95%CI 1.19-1.54), but even more so among smear-positive patients (1.89, 95%CI 1.64-2.14), irrespective of specimen quality and number of smears examined. Three smears were examined for 18,055 suspects (61.7%). The incremental gain was 33.5% and 4.9% for the second and third smear examination, respectively; 186 (95%CI 160-221) smears needed to be examined to find one additional case of TB with a third serial examination. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic process seemed generally efficient. The male:female ratios suggest higher TB incidence in men rather than lower access to TB facilities for women. The third smear examination could be omitted.

Tuberculosis epidemiology in six provinces of Vietnam after the introduction of the DOTS strategy.

SETTING: Six provinces in Vietnam where the DOTS strategy was introduced in 1989. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of improved tuberculosis (TB) control on TB epidemiology in Vietnam. METHODS: Data from the surveillance system in the period 1990-2003 were analysed to assess trends of notification rates and the mean ages of notified cases. Data from repeated tuberculin surveys in the period 1986-2002 were estimated to assess the prevalence of TB infection, the annual risk of infection and its trend using various cut-off points in those with and without bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) scar. RESULTS: Age-standardised notification rates in the period 1996-2003 declined significantly, by 2.6% to 5.9% per year, in five provinces. However, in four provinces notification rates in the age group 15-24 years increased significantly, by 4.5% to 13.6% per year, during this period. The mean age of newly diagnosed patients with smear-positive TB increased up to 1995 but decreased thereafter. The annual risk of TB infection showed a significant annual decrease (4.9% per year) in one province in surveys performed between 1986 and 1997, and in two provinces (6.6% and 4.7%) in surveys conducted between 1993 and 2002. CONCLUSION: These data suggest limited impact to date of the DOTS strategy in Vietnam.

Tuberculin skin test: estimation of positive and negative predictive values from routine data.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate, using routinely available data, the predictive values of tuberculin testing with 2TU RT23 for detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in the Dutch population as a basis for recommendations on cut-off values at various levels of infection prevalence. DESIGN: Smoothed distributions of TST reactions among 312 tuberculosis patients and 2848 healthy non-BCG-vaccinated persons were used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity at various cut-off values. RESULTS: Sensitivity was 98.9% at 5 mm, 95.4% at 10 mm and 79.8% at 15 mm cut-off. Specificity with the corresponding cut-offs was 95.3%, 96.3% and 97.1% before and 98.0%, 98.8% and 99.6% after adjustment for presumed LTBI. At 10 mm, the positive predictive value (PPV) was > 75% if the infection prevalence in the tested population was at least 10%, but strongly declined with lower prevalences. For lower prevalences a cut-off of 15 mm was proposed, as this results in a higher PPV without greatly affecting the negative predictive value. CONCLUSION: Estimation of the predictive values of the TST from routine data can be useful for establishing cut-off values for detection of LTBI in different populations with different tuberculin preparations.

[Large-scale outbreak investigation for tuberculosis in Zeist]. / Grootschalig contactonderzoek op tuberculose in Zeist.

Recently a large-scale outbreak investigation was held among customers of a supermarket in the Dutch town of Zeist after an employee was diagnosed with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. About 14,000 people had a tuberculin skin test and an additional 6,000 had a chest X-ray. About 400 positive skin tests and 8 cases of active tuberculosis have been reported so far. Investigation of contacts of infectious tuberculosis cases is an important tool in tuberculosis control in low-prevalence countries. It includes chest X-ray examination for active pulmonary tuberculosis after or instead of tuberculin skin testing, and identifying contacts with latent tuberculosis infection followed by preventive treatment. Investigation of household and other close contacts is highly effective. This may not be true for sporadic contacts who are likely to have a low risk of infection, such as in this investigation, where the prevalence of recent infections estimated from reported data is only 3%. The benefits of detecting these cases must be weighed against the costs of such large-scale operations and the probability of false-positive skin test results.

Testing for anti-circumsporozoite and anti-blood-stage antibodies for epidemiologic assessment of Plasmodium falciparum infection in travelers.

The purpose of this investigation was to assess the role of serology for establishing incidences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and of exposure to P. falciparum in epidemiologic studies of travelers using chemoprophylaxis. The design was a prospective cohort study involving 548 short-term Dutch travelers to areas endemic for P. falciparum malaria. Sera were collected before departure and, together with the medical history, 2-6 weeks after return. All sera were tested for anti-circumsporozoite (CS) antibodies by an R32tet32-ELISA; sera of subjects reporting febrile illness during travel or after return or with anti-CS responses were tested for anti-blood-stage antibodies by an indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT). Five subjects (0.9%) reported P. falciparum malaria confirmed by thick blood smear examination (documented cases) and six (1.0%) reported treatment for malaria without a documented diagnosis (presumptive cases). Conversions in the IFAT were detected in six subjects, including all five documented cases and one presumptive case. Anti-CS antibodies were detected in seven subjects (1.3%), including three documented cases and four of 442 subjects with no history of fever or malaria treatment (0.9%). Incidence rates per 1,000 person-months of travel (95% confidence interval) of infection with P. falciparum, whether or not suppressed by chemoprophylaxis, were 16.9 (8-31) for all destinations and 91.6 (33-200) for West Africa. In epidemiologic studies of P. falciparum malaria in travelers, testing for antibodies to blood stages can increase the sensitivity and specificity of case detection; testing for antibodies to sporozoites may be useful for the assessment of exposure to P. falciparum in travelers using chemoprophylaxis, but the sensitivity is limited.