Urban living in healthy Tanzanians is associated with an inflammatory status driven by dietary and metabolic changes.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently experiences an unprecedented wave of urbanization, which has important consequences for health and disease patterns. This study aimed to investigate and integrate the immune and metabolic consequences of rural or urban lifestyles and the role of nutritional changes associated with urban living. In a cohort of 323 healthy Tanzanians, urban as compared to rural living was associated with a pro-inflammatory immune phenotype, both at the transcript and protein levels. We identified different food-derived and endogenous circulating metabolites accounting for these differences. Serum from urban dwellers induced reprogramming of innate immune cells with higher tumor necrosis factor production upon microbial re-stimulation in an in vitro model of trained immunity. These data demonstrate important shifts toward an inflammatory phenotype associated with an urban lifestyle and provide new insights into the underlying dietary and metabolic factors, which may affect disease epidemiology in sub-Sahara African countries.

The PTPN2/PTPN1 inhibitor ABBV-CLS-484 unleashes potent anti-tumour immunity.

Immune checkpoint blockade is effective for some patients with cancer, but most are refractory to current immunotherapies and new approaches are needed to overcome resistance1,2. The protein tyrosine phosphatases PTPN2 and PTPN1 are central regulators of inflammation, and their genetic deletion in either tumour cells or immune cells promotes anti-tumour immunity3-6. However, phosphatases are challenging drug targets; in particular, the active site has been considered undruggable. Here we present the discovery and characterization of ABBV-CLS-484 (AC484), a first-in-class, orally bioavailable, potent PTPN2 and PTPN1 active-site inhibitor. AC484 treatment in vitro amplifies the response to interferon and promotes the activation and function of several immune cell subsets. In mouse models of cancer resistant to PD-1 blockade, AC484 monotherapy generates potent anti-tumour immunity. We show that AC484 inflames the tumour microenvironment and promotes natural killer cell and CD8+ T cell function by enhancing JAK-STAT signalling and reducing T cell dysfunction. Inhibitors of PTPN2 and PTPN1 offer a promising new strategy for cancer immunotherapy and are currently being evaluated in patients with advanced solid tumours (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04777994 ). More broadly, our study shows that small-molecule inhibitors of key intracellular immune regulators can achieve efficacy comparable to or exceeding that of antibody-based immune checkpoint blockade in preclinical models. Finally, to our knowledge, AC484 represents the first active-site phosphatase inhibitor to enter clinical evaluation for cancer immunotherapy and may pave the way for additional therapeutics that target this important class of enzymes.

Observation of Stark many-body localization without disorder.

Thermalization is a ubiquitous process of statistical physics, in which a physical system reaches an equilibrium state that is defined by a few global properties such as temperature. Even in isolated quantum many-body systems, limited to reversible dynamics, thermalization typically prevails1. However, in these systems, there is another possibility: many-body localization (MBL) can result in preservation of a non-thermal state2,3. While disorder has long been considered an essential ingredient for this phenomenon, recent theoretical work has suggested that a quantum many-body system with a spatially increasing field-but no disorder-can also exhibit MBL4, resulting in 'Stark MBL'5. Here we realize Stark MBL in a trapped-ion quantum simulator and demonstrate its key properties: halting of thermalization and slow propagation of correlations. Tailoring the interactions between ionic spins in an effective field gradient, we directly observe their microscopic equilibration for a variety of initial states, and we apply single-site control to measure correlations between separate regions of the spin chain. Furthermore, by engineering a varying gradient, we create a disorder-free system with coexisting long-lived thermalized and non-thermal regions. The results demonstrate the unexpected generality of MBL, with implications about the fundamental requirements for thermalization and with potential uses in engineering long-lived non-equilibrium quantum matter.

A functional genomics approach in Tanzanian population identifies distinct genetic regulators of cytokine production compared to European population.

Humans exhibit remarkable interindividual and interpopulation immune response variability upon microbial challenges. Cytokines play a vital role in regulating inflammation and immune responses, but dysregulation of cytokine responses has been implicated in different disease states. Host genetic factors were previously shown to significantly impact cytokine response heterogeneity mainly in European-based studies, but it is unclear whether these findings are transferable to non-European individuals. Here, we aimed to identify genetic variants modulating cytokine responses in healthy adults of East African ancestry from Tanzania. We leveraged both cytokine and genetic data and performed genome-wide cytokine quantitative trait loci (cQTLs) mapping. The results were compared with another cohort of healthy adults of Western European ancestry via direct overlap and functional enrichment analyses. We also performed meta-analyses to identify cQTLs with congruent effect direction in both populations. In the Tanzanians, cQTL mapping identified 80 independent suggestive loci and one genome-wide significant locus (TBC1D22A) at chromosome 22; SNP rs12169244 was associated with IL-1b release after Salmonella enteritidis stimulation. Remarkably, the identified cQTLs varied significantly when compared to the European cohort, and there was a very limited percentage of overlap (1.6% to 1.9%). We further observed ancestry-specific pathways regulating induced cytokine responses, and there was significant enrichment of the interferon pathway specifically in the Tanzanians. Furthermore, contrary to the Europeans, genetic variants in the TLR10-TLR1-TLR6 locus showed no effect on cytokine response. Our data reveal both ancestry-specific effects of genetic variants and pathways on cytokine response heterogeneity, hence arguing for the importance of initiatives to include diverse populations into genomics research.

Loss of ADAR1 in tumours overcomes resistance to immune checkpoint blockade.

Most patients with cancer either do not respond to immune checkpoint blockade or develop resistance to it, often because of acquired mutations that impair antigen presentation. Here we show that loss of function of the RNA-editing enzyme ADAR1 in tumour cells profoundly sensitizes tumours to immunotherapy and overcomes resistance to checkpoint blockade. In the absence of ADAR1, A-to-I editing of interferon-inducible RNA species is reduced, leading to double-stranded RNA ligand sensing by PKR and MDA5; this results in growth inhibition and tumour inflammation, respectively. Loss of ADAR1 overcomes resistance to PD-1 checkpoint blockade caused by inactivation of antigen presentation by tumour cells. Thus, effective anti-tumour immunity is constrained by inhibitory checkpoints such as ADAR1 that limit the sensing of innate ligands. The induction of sufficient inflammation in tumours that are sensitized to interferon can bypass the therapeutic requirement for CD8+ T cell recognition of cancer cells and may provide a general strategy to overcome immunotherapy resistance.

Sex-biased genetic regulation of inflammatory proteins in the Dutch population.

BACKGROUND: Significant differences in immune responses, prevalence or susceptibility of diseases and treatment responses have been described between males and females. Despite this, sex-differentiation analysis of the genetic architecture of inflammatory proteins is largely unexplored. We performed sex-stratified meta-analysis after protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) mapping using inflammatory biomarkers profiled using targeted proteomics (Olink inflammatory panel) of two population-based cohorts of Europeans. RESULTS: Even though, around 67% of the pQTLs demonstrated shared effect between sexes, colocalization analysis identified two loci in the males (LINC01135 and ITGAV) and three loci (CNOT10, SRD5A2, and LILRB5) in the females with evidence of sex-dependent modulation by pQTL variants. Furthermore, we identified pathways with relevant functions in the sex-biased pQTL variants. We also showed through cross-validation that the sex-specific pQTLs are linked with sex-specific phenotypic traits. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates the relevance of genetic sex-stratified analysis in the context of genetic dissection of protein abundances among individuals and reveals that, sex-specific pQTLs might mediate sex-linked phenotypes. Identification of sex-specific pQTLs associated with sex-biased diseases can help realize the promise of individualized treatment.

A functional genomics approach reveals suggestive quantitative trait loci associated with combined TLR4 and BCP crystal-induced inflammation and osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Basic calcium phosphate (BCP) crystals can activate the NLRP3 inflammasome and are potentially involved in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis (OA). In order to elucidate relevant inflammatory mechanisms in OA, we used a functional genomics approach to assess genetic variation influencing BCP crystal-induced cytokine production. METHOD: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated from healthy volunteers who were previously genotyped and stimulated with BCP crystals and/or lipopolysaccharide (LPS) after which cytokines release was assessed. Cytokine quantitative trait locus (cQTL) mapping was performed. For in vitro validation of the cQTL located in anoctamin 3 (ANO3), PBMCs were incubated with Tamoxifen and Benzbromarone prior to stimulation. Additionally, we performed co-localisation analysis of our top cQTLs with the most recent OA meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). RESULTS: We observed that BCP crystals and LPS synergistically induce IL-1ß in human PBMCs. cQTL analysis revealed several suggestive loci influencing cytokine release upon stimulation, among which are quantitative trait locus annotated to ANO3 and GLIS3. As functional validation, anoctamin inhibitors reduced IL-1ß release in PBMCs after stimulation. Co-localisation analysis showed that the GLIS3 locus was shared between LPS/BCP crystal-induced IL-1ß and genetic association with Knee OA. CONCLUSIONS: We identified and functionally validated a new locus, ANO3, associated with LPS/BCP crystal-induced inflammation in PBMCs. Moreover, the cQTL in the GLIS3 locus co-localises with the previously found locus associated with Knee OA, suggesting that this Knee OA locus might be explained through an inflammatory mechanism. These results form a basis for further exploration of inflammatory mechanisms in OA.

Borrelia burgdorferi Is a Poor Inducer of Gamma Interferon: Amplification Induced by Interleukin-12.

Laboratory diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis (LB) is mainly based on serology, which has limitations, particularly in the early stages of the disease. In recent years there have been conflicting reports concerning a new diagnostic tool using the cytokine interferon-gamma (IFN-γ). Previous studies have generally found low concentrations of IFN-γ in early LB infection. The goal of this study is to investigate IFN-γ regulation during early LB and provide insights into the host response to B. burgdorferi. We performed in vitro experiments with whole blood assays and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of LB patients and healthy volunteers exposed to B. burgdorferi and evaluated the IFN-γ response using ELISA and related interindividual variation in IFN-γ production to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms. IFN-γ production of B. burgdorferi-exposed PBMCs and whole blood was amplified by the addition of interleukin-12 (IL-12) to the stimulation system. This effect was observed after 24 h of B. burgdorferi stimulation in both healthy individuals and LB patients. The effect was highly variable between individuals, but was significantly higher in LB patients 6 weeks since the start of antibiotic treatment compared to healthy individuals. IL-12 p40 and IL-18 mRNA were upregulated upon exposure to B. burgdorferi, whereas IL-12 p35 and IFN-γ mRNA expression remained relatively unchanged. SNP Rs280520 in the downstream IL-12 pathway, Tyrosine Kinase 2, was associated with increased IFN-γ production. This study shows that IL-12 evokes an IFN-γ response in B. burgdorferi exposed cells, and that LB patients and healthy controls respond differently to this stimulation.

Dysregulated Innate and Adaptive Immune Responses Discriminate Disease Severity in COVID-19.

The clinical spectrum of COVID-19 varies and the differences in host response characterizing this variation have not been fully elucidated. COVID-19 disease severity correlates with an excessive proinflammatory immune response and profound lymphopenia. Inflammatory responses according to disease severity were explored by plasma cytokine measurements and proteomics analysis in 147 COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, peripheral blood mononuclear cell cytokine production assays and whole blood flow cytometry were performed. Results confirm a hyperinflammatory innate immune state, while highlighting hepatocyte growth factor and stem cell factor as potential biomarkers for disease severity. Clustering analysis revealed no specific inflammatory endotypes in COVID-19 patients. Functional assays revealed abrogated adaptive cytokine production (interferon-γ, interleukin-17, and interleukin-22) and prominent T-cell exhaustion in critically ill patients, whereas innate immune responses were intact or hyperresponsive. Collectively, this extensive analysis provides a comprehensive insight into the pathobiology of severe to critical COVID-19 and highlights potential biomarkers of disease severity.

Bridging the age gap in breast cancer: impact of omission of breast cancer surgery in older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer on quality-of-life outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Primary endocrine therapy may be an alternative treatment for less fit women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. This study compared quality-of-life (QoL) outcomes in older women treated with surgery or primary endocrine therapy. METHODS: This was a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of surgery or primary endocrine therapy in women aged over 70 years with operable breast cancer. QoL was assessed using European Organisation for Research and Treatment of cancer QoL questionnaires QLQ-C30, -BR23, and -ELD14, and the EuroQol Five Dimensions 5L score at baseline, 6 weeks, and 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Propensity score matching was used to adjust for baseline variation in health, fitness, and tumour stage. RESULTS: The study recruited 3416 women (median age 77 (range 69-102) years) from 56 breast units. Of these, 2979 (87.2 per cent) had ER-positive breast cancer; 2354 women had surgery and 500 received primary endocrine therapy (125 were excluded from analysis due to inadequate data or non-standard therapy). Median follow-up was 52 months. The primary endocrine therapy group was older and less fit. Baseline QoL differed between the groups; the mean(s.d.) QLQ-C30 global health status score was 66.2(21.1) in patients who received primary endocrine therapy versus 77.1(17.8) among those who had surgery plus endocrine therapy. In the unmatched analysis, changes in QoL between 6 weeks and baseline were noted in several domains, but by 24 months most scores had returned to baseline levels. In the matched analysis, major surgery (mastectomy or axillary clearance) had a more pronounced adverse impact than primary endocrine therapy in several domains. CONCLUSION: Adverse effects on QoL are seen in the first few months after surgery, but by 24 months these have largely resolved. Women considering surgery should be informed of these effects.

Bridging the age gap in breast cancer: cluster randomized trial of two decision support interventions for older women with operable breast cancer on quality of life, survival, decision quality, and treatment choices.

BACKGROUND: Rates of surgery and adjuvant therapy for breast cancer vary widely between breast units. This may contribute to differences in survival. This cluster RCT evaluated the impact of decision support interventions (DESIs) for older women with breast cancer, to ascertain whether DESIs influenced quality of life, survival, decision quality, and treatment choice. METHODS: A multicentre cluster RCT compared the use of two DESIs against usual care in treatment decision-making in older women (aged at least ≥70 years) with breast cancer. Each DESI comprised an online algorithm, booklet, and brief decision aid to inform choices between surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy versus primary endocrine therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy. The primary outcome was quality of life. Secondary outcomes included decision quality measures, survival, and treatment choice. RESULTS: A total of 46 breast units were randomized (21 intervention, 25 usual care), recruiting 1339 women (670 intervention, 669 usual care). There was no significant difference in global quality of life at 6 months after the baseline assessment on intention-to-treat analysis (difference -0.20, 95 per cent confidence interval (C.I.) -2.69 to 2.29; P = 0.900). In women offered a choice of primary endocrine therapy versus surgery plus endocrine therapy, knowledge about treatments was greater in the intervention arm (94 versus 74 per cent; P = 0.003). Treatment choice was altered, with a primary endocrine therapy rate among women with oestrogen receptor-positive disease of 21.0 per cent in the intervention versus 15.4 per cent in usual-care sites (difference 5.5 (95 per cent C.I. 1.1 to 10.0) per cent; P = 0.029). The chemotherapy rate was 10.3 per cent at intervention versus 14.8 per cent at usual-care sites (difference -4.5 (C.I. -8.0 to 0) per cent; P = 0.013). Survival was similar in both arms. CONCLUSION: The use of DESIs in older women increases knowledge of breast cancer treatment options, facilitates shared decision-making, and alters treatment selection. Trial registration numbers: EudraCT 2015-004220-61 (https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/), ISRCTN46099296 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

The role of macrophages in osteoarthritis and cartilage repair.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a family of degenerative diseases affecting multiple joint tissues. Despite the diverse etiology and pathogenesis of OA, increasing evidence suggests that macrophages can play a significant role in modulating joint inflammation, and thus OA severity, via various secreted mediators. Recent advances in next-generation sequencing technologies coupled with proteomic and epigenetic tools have greatly facilitated research to elucidate the embryonic origin of macrophages in various tissues including joint synovium. Furthermore, scientists have now begun to appreciate that macrophage polarization can span beyond the conventionally recognized binary states (i.e., pro-inflammatory M1-like vs anti-inflammatory M2-like) and may encompass a broad spectrum of phenotypes. Although the presence of these cells has been shown in multiple joint tissues, additional mechanistic studies are required to provide a comprehensive understanding of the precise role of these diverse macrophage populations in OA onset and progression. New approaches that can modulate macrophages into desired functional phenotypes may provide novel therapeutic strategies for preventing OA or enhancing cartilage repair and regeneration.

Bridging the Age Gap: a prognostic model that predicts survival and aids in primary treatment decisions for older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A prognostic model was developed and validated using cancer registry data. This underpins an online decision support tool, informing primary treatment choice for women aged 70 years or older with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer. METHODS: Data from women diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in the English Northern and Yorkshire and West Midlands regions were used to develop the model. Primary treatment options of surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy or primary endocrine therapy were compared. Models predicting the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality and hazard of other-cause mortality were combined to derive survival probabilities. The model was validated externally using data from the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre. RESULTS: The model was developed using data from 23 842 women, and validated externally on a data set from 14 526 patients. The overall model calibration was good. At 2 and 5 years, predicted mortality from breast cancer and other causes differed from the observed rate by less than 1 per cent. At 5 years, there were slight overpredictions in breast cancer mortality (2629 predicted versus 2556 observed deaths; P = 0·142) and mortality from all causes (6399 versus 6320 respectively; P = 0·583). The discrepancy varied between subgroups. Model discrimination was 0·75 or above for all mortality measures. CONCLUSION: A prognostic model for older women with oestrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer was developed and validated in the present study. This forms a basis for an online decision support tool (https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/).

ANTECEDENTES: Se ha desarrollado y validado un modelo pronóstico utilizando datos del registro de cáncer. Ello ha permitido ofrecer una herramienta online para facilitar la toma de decisiones respecto a la elección del tratamiento inicial en mujeres mayores de 70 años con cáncer de mama precoz y receptores de hormonas positivos. MÉTODOS: Se incluyeron un total de 23.842 mujeres, diagnosticadas entre 2002 y 2010 en las regiones del Norte, Yorkshire y West Midlands inglesas que cumplieron con los criterios de inclusión. Se compararon dos opciones de tratamiento: cirugía primaria asociada a tratamiento endocrino adyuvante o tratamiento primario endocrino. Para estimar la probabilidad de supervivencia se combinaron modelos predictivos para el riesgo de mortalidad específica por cáncer de mama y para el riesgo de mortalidad por otras causas. Se realizó una validación externa con datos del Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Center (n = 14.526). RESULTADOS: La calibración global del modelo fue buena. A los 2 y 5 años, la mortalidad anticipada por cáncer de mama y por otras causas difería de la observada en menos del 1%. A los 5 años, hubo una ligera sobrevaloración de la predicción de mortalidad por cáncer de mama (prevista versus real: 2.629 versus 2.556, P = 0,78) y de la mortalidad por todas las causas (6.399 versus 6.320, P = 0,14). Esta discrepancia varió entre subgrupos. La capacidad discriminativa del modelo fue del 0,75 o superior para todas las medidas de mortalidad. CONCLUSIÓN: En este estudio, se desarrolló y validó un modelo pronóstico para mujeres mayores con cáncer de mama precoz positivo para receptores de estrógenos. Esta herramienta que facilita la toma de decisiones está disponible online (https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/).

Sustaining better care for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.

Emergency laparotomy is associated with high mortality. Implementation of an evidence-based care bundle has been shown to improve patient outcomes. A quality improvement project to implement a six-component care bundle was undertaken between July 2015 and May 2018. As part of this project, we worked with 27 hospitals in the Emergency Laparotomy Collaborative. Previous pilot implementation of the same bundle in our hospital between December 2012 and July 2013 had shown marked improvement, maintained until April 2014, but then deterioration. Understanding the reasons for this deterioration informed our work to re-implement the bundle and sustain improvement. A cohort of 930 consecutive patients requiring emergency laparotomy between October 2014 and April 2019 were included. Baseline data were collected between October 2014 and June 2015, and the bundle was re-implemented in July 2015. Thirty-day mortality decreased from 11% in the baseline group to 7.3% after bundle implementation. Hospital length of stay decreased from 19.5 to 17.9 days. Full bundle compliance improved from < 60% to > 80% for all patients, with improvement in application of all individual bundle components. This study provides further evidence that outcomes for high-risk surgical patients can be improved with an evidence-based care bundle, but attention must be paid to maintaining bundle compliance. Issues around sustaining improvement must be considered from project initiation.

Common latitudinal gradients in functional richness and functional evenness across marine and terrestrial systems.

Functional diversity is an important aspect of biodiversity, but its relationship to species diversity in time and space is poorly understood. Here we compare spatial patterns of functional and taxonomic diversity across marine and terrestrial systems to identify commonalities in their respective ecological and evolutionary drivers. We placed species-level ecological traits into comparable multi-dimensional frameworks for two model systems, marine bivalves and terrestrial birds, and used global species-occurrence data to examine the distribution of functional diversity with latitude and longitude. In both systems, tropical faunas show high total functional richness (FR) but low functional evenness (FE) (i.e. the tropics contain a highly skewed distribution of species among functional groups). Functional groups that persist toward the poles become more uniform in species richness, such that FR declines and FE rises with latitude in both systems. Temperate assemblages are more functionally even than tropical assemblages subsampled to temperate levels of species richness, suggesting that high species richness in the tropics reflects a high degree of ecological specialization within a few functional groups and/or factors that favour high recent speciation or reduced extinction rates in those groups.

Transcriptome and Comparative Genomics Analyses Reveal New Functional Insights on Key Determinants of Pathogenesis and Interbacterial Competition in Pectobacterium and Dickeya spp.

Soft-rot Enterobacteriaceae (SRE), typified by Pectobacterium and Dickeya genera, are phytopathogenic bacteria inflicting soft-rot disease in crops worldwide. By combining genomic information from 100 SRE with whole-transcriptome data sets, we identified novel genomic and transcriptional associations among key pathogenicity themes in this group. Comparative genomics revealed solid linkage between the type I secretion system (T1SS) and the carotovoricin bacteriophage (Ctv) conserved in 96.7% of Pectobacterium genomes. Moreover, their coactivation during infection indicates a novel functional association involving T1SS and Ctv. Another bacteriophage-borne genomic region, mostly confined to less than 10% of Pectobacterium strains, was found, presumably comprising a novel lineage-specific prophage in the genus. We also detected the transcriptional coregulation of a previously predicted toxin/immunity pair (WHH and SMI1_KNR4 families), along with the type VI secretion system (T6SS), which includes hcp and/or vgrG genes, suggesting a role in disease development as T6SS-dependent effectors. Further, we showed that another predicted T6SS-dependent endonuclease (AHH family) exhibited toxicity in ectopic expression assays, indicating antibacterial activity. Additionally, we report the striking conservation of the group 4 capsule (GFC) cluster in 100 SRE strains which consistently features adjacently conserved serotype-specific gene arrays comprising a previously unknown organization in GFC clusters. Also, extensive sequence variations found in gfcA orthologs suggest a serotype-specific role in the GfcABCD machinery.IMPORTANCE Despite the considerable loss inflicted on important crops yearly by Pectobacterium and Dickeya diseases, investigations on key virulence and interbacterial competition assets relying on extensive comparative genomics are still surprisingly lacking for these genera. Such approaches become more powerful over time, underpinned by the growing amount of genomic information in public databases. In particular, our findings point to new functional associations among well-known genomic themes enabling alternative means of neutralizing SRE diseases through disruption of pivotal virulence programs. By elucidating novel transcriptional and genomic associations, this study adds valuable information on virulence candidates that could be decisive in molecular applications in the near future. The utilization of 100 genomes of Pectobacterium and Dickeya strains in this study is unprecedented for comparative analyses in these taxa, and it provides novel insights on the biology of economically important plant pathogens.

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data.

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.

Omission of surgery in older women with early breast cancer has an adverse impact on breast cancer-specific survival.

BACKGROUND: Primary endocrine therapy is used as an alternative to surgery in up to 40 per cent of women with early breast cancer aged over 70 years in the UK. This study investigated the impact of surgery versus primary endocrine therapy on breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in older women. METHODS: Cancer registration data for 2002-2010 were obtained from two English regions. A retrospective analysis was performed for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease, using statistical modelling to show the effect of treatment (surgery or primary endocrine therapy) and age and health status on BCSS. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. RESULTS: Cancer registration data on 23 961 women were retrieved. After data preprocessing, 18 730 of 23 849 women (78·5 per cent) were identified as having ER-positive disease; of these, 10 087 (53·9 per cent) had surgery and 8643 (46·1 per cent) had primary endocrine therapy. BCSS was worse in the primary endocrine therapy group than in the surgical group (5-year BCSS rate 69·4 and 89·9 per cent respectively). This was true for all strata considered, although the difference was less in the cohort with the greatest degree of co-morbidity. For older, frailer patients the hazard of breast cancer death had less relative impact on overall survival. CONCLUSION: BCSS in older women with ER-positive disease is worse if surgery is omitted. This treatment choice may contribute to inferior cancer outcomes. Selection for surgery on the basis of predicted life expectancy may permit choice of women for whom surgery confers little benefit.