Adaptive sequential surveillance with network and temporal dependence.

Strategic test allocation is important for control of both emerging and existing pandemics (eg, COVID-19, HIV). It supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases and (2) tracking outbreak dynamics to inform targeted interventions. However, infectious disease surveillance presents unique statistical challenges. For instance, the true outcome of interest (positive infection status) is often a latent variable. In addition, presence of both network and temporal dependence reduces data to a single observation. In this work, we study an adaptive sequential design, which allows for unspecified dependence among individuals and across time. Our causal parameter is the mean latent outcome we would have obtained, if, starting at time t given the observed past, we had carried out a stochastic intervention that maximizes the outcome under a resource constraint. The key strength of the method is that we do not have to model network and time dependence: a short-term performance Online Super Learner is used to select among dependence models and randomization schemes. The proposed strategy learns the optimal choice of testing over time while adapting to the current state of the outbreak and learning across samples, through time, or both. We demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed strategy in an agent-based simulation modeling a residential university environment during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pregnancy and post-delivery maternal weight changes and overweight in preschool children.

OBJECTIVES: High maternal weight before and during pregnancy contributes to child obesity. To assess the additional role of weight change after delivery, we examined associations between pre- and post-pregnancy weight changes and preschooler overweight. SAMPLE: 4359 children from the Children and Young Adults of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) born to 2816 NLSY mothers between 1979 and 2006 and followed to age 4-5years old. EXPOSURES: gestational weight gain (GWG) and post-delivery maternal weight change (PDWC). OUTCOME: child overweight (body mass index (BMI) ≥85th percentile). RESULTS: Adjusted models suggested that both increased GWG (OR: 1.08 per 5kg GWG, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.16) and excessive GWG (OR: 1.29 versus adequate GWG, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.56) were associated with preschooler overweight. Maternal weight change after delivery was also independently associated with child overweight (OR: 1.12 per 5kg PDWC, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.21). Associations were stronger among children with overweight or obese mothers. CONCLUSIONS: Increased maternal weight gain both during and after pregnancy predicted overweight in preschool children. Our results suggest that healthy post-pregnancy weight may join normal pre-pregnancy BMI and adequate GWG as a potentially modifiable risk factor for child overweight.

The optimal dynamic treatment rule superlearner: considerations, performance, and application to criminal justice interventions.

The optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR) framework offers an approach for understanding which kinds of patients respond best to specific treatments - in other words, treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a proliferation of methods for estimating the ODTR. One such method is an extension of the SuperLearner algorithm - an ensemble method to optimally combine candidate algorithms extensively used in prediction problems - to ODTRs. Following the ``causal roadmap," we causally and statistically define the ODTR and provide an introduction to estimating it using the ODTR SuperLearner. Additionally, we highlight practical choices when implementing the algorithm, including choice of candidate algorithms, metalearners to combine the candidates, and risk functions to select the best combination of algorithms. Using simulations, we illustrate how estimating the ODTR using this SuperLearner approach can uncover treatment effect heterogeneity more effectively than traditional approaches based on fitting a parametric regression of the outcome on the treatment, covariates and treatment-covariate interactions. We investigate the implications of choices in implementing an ODTR SuperLearner at various sample sizes. Our results show the advantages of: (1) including a combination of both flexible machine learning algorithms and simple parametric estimators in the library of candidate algorithms; (2) using an ensemble metalearner to combine candidates rather than selecting only the best-performing candidate; (3) using the mean outcome under the rule as a risk function. Finally, we apply the ODTR SuperLearner to the ``Interventions" study, an ongoing randomized controlled trial, to identify which justice-involved adults with mental illness benefit most from cognitive behavioral therapy to reduce criminal re-offending.

A method to quantify illicit intake of drugs from urine: methamphetamine.

Qualitative urinalysis can verify abstinence of drug misuse but cannot detect changes in drug intake. For drugs with slow elimination, such as methamphetamine (MA), a single episode of abuse can result in up to 5 days of positive urine drug screens. Thus, interventions that produce substantial decreases in drug use but do not achieve almost complete abstinence are classified as ineffective. Using nonpharmacologic doses of deuterium-labeled l-methamphetamine (l-MA-d(3)) we have developed a simple, robust method that reliably estimates changes in MA intake. Twelve subjects were dosed with 5 mg of l-MA-d(3) daily and challenged with 15, 30, and 45 mg of nonlabeled d-MA (d-MA-d(0)) after reaching plasma steady status of l-MA-d(3). Urinary concentration ratios of d-MA-d(0) to l-MA-d(3) provided clear separation of the administered doses with as little as 15-mg dose increments. Administered doses could not be resolved using d-MA-d(0) concentrations alone. In conclusion, the urinary [d-MA-d(0)]:[l-MA-d(3)] provides a quantitative, continuous measure of illicit MA exposure. The method reliably detects small, clinically relevant changes in illicit MA intake from random urine specimens, is amenable to deployment in clinical trials, and can be used to quantify patterns of MA abuse.

Effects of the Psychedelic Amphetamine MDA (3,4-Methylenedioxyamphetamine) in Healthy Volunteers.

Entactogens such as 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "molly", "ecstasy") appear to have unusual, potentially therapeutic, emotional effects. Understanding their mechanisms can benefit from clinical experiments with related drugs. Yet the first known drug with such properties, 3,4-Methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), remains poorly studied and its pharmacokinetics in humans are unknown. We conducted a within-subjects, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of 1.4 mg/kg oral racemic MDA and compared results to those from our prior similar studies with 1.5 mg/kg oral racemic MDMA. MDA was well-tolerated by participants. MDA induced robust increases in heart rate and blood pressure and increased cortisol and prolactin to a similar degree as MDMA. MDA self-report effects shared features with MDMA as well as with classical psychedelics. MDA self-report effects lasted longer than those of MDMA, with MDA effects remaining elevated at 8 h while MDMA effects resolved by 6 h. Cmax and AUC0-∞ for MDA were 229 ± 39 (mean ± SD) and 3636 ± 958 µg/L for MDA and 92 ± 61 and 1544 ± 741 µg/L for the metabolite 4-hydroxy-3-methoxyamphetamine (HMA). There was considerable between-subject variation in MDA/HMA ratios. The similarity of MDA and MDMA pharmacokinetics suggests that the greater duration of MDA effects is due to pharmacodynamics rather than pharmacokinetics.

Ensemble machine learning and forecasting can achieve 99% uptime for rural handpumps.

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers' health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers' willingness to pay for water services.

MDMA Impairs Response to Water Intake in Healthy Volunteers.

Hyponatremia is a serious complication of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) use. We investigated potential mechanisms in two double-blind, placebo-controlled studies. In Study 1, healthy drug-experienced volunteers received MDMA or placebo alone and in combination with the alpha-1 adrenergic inverse agonist prazosin, used as a positive control to release antidiuretic hormone (ADH). In Study 2, volunteers received MDMA or placebo followed by standardized water intake. MDMA lowered serum sodium but did not increase ADH or copeptin, although the control prazosin did increase ADH. Water loading reduced serum sodium more after MDMA than after placebo. There was a trend for women to have lower baseline serum sodium than men, but there were no significant interactions with drug condition. Combining studies, MDMA potentiated the ability of water to lower serum sodium. Thus, hyponatremia appears to be a significant risk when hypotonic fluids are consumed during MDMA use. Clinical trials and events where MDMA use is common should anticipate and mitigate this risk.

Effects of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine on socioemotional feelings, authenticity, and autobiographical disclosure in healthy volunteers in a controlled setting.

The drug 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy", "molly") is a widely used illicit drug and experimental adjunct to psychotherapy. MDMA has unusual, poorly understood socioemotional effects, including feelings of interpersonal closeness and sociability. To better understand these effects, we conducted a small (n=12) within-subjects double-blind placebo controlled study of the effects of 1.5 mg/kg oral MDMA on social emotions and autobiographical disclosure in a controlled setting. MDMA displayed both sedative- and stimulant-like effects, including increased self-report anxiety. At the same time, MDMA positively altered evaluation of the self (i.e. increasing feelings of authenticity) while decreasing concerns about negative evaluation by others (i.e. decreasing social anxiety). Consistent with these feelings, MDMA increased how comfortable participants felt describing emotional memories. Overall, MDMA produced a prosocial syndrome that seemed to facilitate emotional disclosure and that appears consistent with the suggestion that it represents a novel pharmacological class.

Impact of prospectively determined A118G polymorphism on treatment response to injectable naltrexone among methamphetamine-dependent patients: an open-label, pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: Methamphetamine (MA) addiction has no known effective pharmacotherapy. Small trials showed beneficial effects for oral naltrexone in amphetamine users. Trials in alcohol-dependent subjects showed better response in persons with the A118G single nucleotide polymorphism of the µ-opioid receptor. We conducted a pharmacogenetic trial of sustained release intramuscular naltrexone to examine the role of the A118G single nucleotide polymorphism in MA dependence. METHOD: All eligible A118G subjects screened were enrolled; an equal number of wild type (A118A) subjects were selected using modified urn randomization, balanced on sex and frequency of recent MA use. Enrolled subjects received a single 380 mg naltrexone injection and weekly psychotherapy for 4 weeks. Self-report of MA use and urine toxicology for MA was assessed twice weekly. Urine samples with less than 1000 ng/mL of MA were considered negative. RESULTS: Eleven A118G and 11 A118A subjects were enrolled. There were no significant differences between the groups in days of abstinence from MA use (11.5 vs 14.8, respectively, P = 0.51), the number of MA-negative urine samples (1.7 vs 1.8, respectively, P = 0.97), consecutive MA-negative urine samples (1.0 vs 1.5, respectively, P = 0.91), or the number of MA-negative urine samples before first relapse (0.9 vs 1.5, respectively, P = 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Although A118G polymorphism has been shown to be associated with improved treatment response to naltrexone among alcoholics, whether this polymorphism impacts naltrexone treatment response among MA users is unclear at this time.

A simple, novel method for assessing medication adherence: capsule photographs taken with cellular telephones.

OBJECTIVES: Medication nonadherence is an important factor in clinical practice and research methodology. Although many methods of measuring adherence have been investigated, there is as yet no "gold standard." We compared the usefulness and accuracy of a novel measure of adherence, photographs taken by cellular telephones with 2 incumbents: capsule count and the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). METHOD: Twenty subjects participated in a clinical trial of the efficacy of modafinil for the treatment of methamphetamine dependence. Subjects were issued cell phones and medication in MEMS Cap equipped bottles and were instructed to take 1 capsule a day for 8 weeks, recording adherence with both systems. Pill counts were recorded at weekly inpatient visits. Subjects were paid for participation and for each capsule photograph and the returned medication bottle with MEMS Cap. RESULTS: Capsule count-indicated adherence (proportion of prescribed medication taken) was 94.9%. When compared with capsule count, the novel method was found to underestimate adherence, whereas MEMS overestimated adherence. By using the dosing time data collected, we determined that subjects who dosed at a consistent time daily were more likely to adhere to the prescribed regimen. We also detected discrepancies in the timestamps recorded by MEMS. CONCLUSIONS: Capsule photographs are a useful measure of adherence, allowing more accurate time measures and more frequent adherence assessment than MEMS or capsule count. Given the ubiquity of cellular telephone use, and the relative ease of this adherence measurement method, we believe it is a useful and cost-effective approach.

Lack of effect of sublingual salvinorin A, a naturally occurring kappa opioid, in humans: a placebo-controlled trial.

RATIONALE: Salvinorin A (SA) is a highly selective kappa opioid receptor agonist and the putative psychoactive compound in Salvia divinorum (SD), an increasingly abused hallucinogenic plant. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to characterize the physiological and subjective effects of SA versus placebo and measure drug and metabolite levels. METHODS: Sublingual SA doses up to 4 mg were administered in dimethyl sulfoxide/polyethylene glycol 400 solution to eight SD-experienced subjects using a placebo-controlled ascending-dose design. RESULTS: No dose of SA produced significantly greater physiological or subjective effects than placebo. Furthermore, effects did not resemble reported "typical" effects of smoked SD. SA was detectable in plasma and urine, but was, in most cases, below the reliable limit of quantification (0.5 ng/mL). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the sublingual bioavailability of SA is low. Higher doses, alternate formulations, or alternate routes of administration will be necessary to study the effects of SA in humans.

Imagery scripts and a computerized subtraction stress task both induce stress in methamphetamine users: a controlled laboratory study.

Patients treated for methamphetamine (MA) dependence have a high rate of relapse, and stress is thought to play a key role. We sought to develop a computerized procedure for experimentally inducing stress in MA users. In a within-subjects design, we compared a computerized subtraction stress task (SST) to personalized stress-imagery scripts and a control condition (neutral imagery) in 9 former MA users, recruited in San Francisco in 2006-2007. We assessed blood hormone levels, anxiety and craving for MA on visual analog scales, and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule and made linear mixed-effects models to analyze the results. Both the SST and stress scripts were effective in inducing self-report markers of stress in MA users. Because the SST is easily reproducible and requires less time of staff and participants, it may be a useful alternative for measuring stress reactivity in drug users.

Investigating the mechanisms of hallucinogen-induced visions using 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA): a randomized controlled trial in humans.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms of drug-induced visions are poorly understood. Very few serotonergic hallucinogens have been studied in humans in decades, despite widespread use of these drugs and potential relevance of their mechanisms to hallucinations occurring in psychiatric and neurological disorders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the mechanisms of hallucinogen-induced visions by measuring the visual and perceptual effects of the hallucinogenic serotonin 5-HT2AR receptor agonist and monoamine releaser, 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), in a double-blind placebo-controlled study. We found that MDA increased self-report measures of mystical-type experience and other hallucinogen-like effects, including reported visual alterations. MDA produced a significant increase in closed-eye visions (CEVs), with considerable individual variation. Magnitude of CEVs after MDA was associated with lower performance on measures of contour integration and object recognition. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Drug-induced visions may have greater intensity in people with poor sensory or perceptual processing, suggesting common mechanisms with other hallucinatory syndromes. MDA is a potential tool to investigate mystical experiences and visual perception. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00823407.