Assessing Adverse Health Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Low Levels of Ambient Air Pollution: The HEI Experience and What's Next?

Although concentrations of ambient air pollution continue to decline in high-income regions, epidemiological studies document adverse health effects at levels below current standards in many countries. The Health Effects Institute (HEI) recently completed a comprehensive research initiative to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution in the United States (U.S.), Canada, and Europe. We provide an overview and synthesis of the results of this initiative along with other key research, the strengths and limitations of the research, and remaining research needs. The three studies funded through the HEI initiative estimated the effects of long-term ambient exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and other pollutants on a broad range of health outcomes, including cause-specific mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity. To ensure high quality research and comparability across studies, HEI worked actively with the study teams and engaged independent expert panels for project oversight and review. All three studies documented positive associations between mortality and exposure to PM2.5 below the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards and current and proposed European Union limit values. Furthermore, the studies observed nonthreshold linear (U.S.), or supra-linear (Canada and Europe) exposure-response functions for PM2.5 and mortality. Heterogeneity was found in both the magnitude and shape of this association within and across studies. Strengths of the studies included the large populations (7-69 million), state-of-the-art exposure assessment methods, and thorough statistical analyses that applied novel methods. Future work is needed to better understand potential sources of heterogeneity in the findings across studies and regions. Other areas of future work include the changing and evolving nature of PM components and sources, including wildfires, and the role of indoor environments. This research initiative provided important new evidence of the adverse effects of long-term exposures to low levels of air pollution at and below current standards, suggesting that further reductions could yield larger benefits than previously anticipated.

The role of neighbourhood environments in hospitalization risk for diabetes and related conditions: A population-based cohort analysis by remoteness and deprivation indices.

Background: Most socio-epidemiological studies on diabetes incidence, prevalence, or hospitalization focus on individual-level risk factors. This population-based cohort study sought to advance understanding on the associations of contextual characteristics and risk of diabetes-related avoidable hospitalization (DRAH) among at-risk Canadians. Data and methods: A national cohort was compiled from the 2013/2014 Canadian Community Health Survey, representing 5.1 million adults aged 35 years and older, reporting having been diagnosed with diabetes, hypertension, or heart disease. Their information was linked longitudinally to hospitalization data from the 2013/14 to 2017/18 Discharge Abstract Database as well as to measures of geographic variability from the Material and Social Deprivation Index and the Index of Remoteness. Cox regression models were used to examine associations between the contextual indices and first occurrence of a DRAH. Results: Residents in the most rural and remote communities were 50% more likely (hazard ratio (HR): 1.51, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.26 to 1.80) to experience a DRAH than those in the most urbanized and accessible communities, and residents in the most socially deprived areas were significantly more likely (HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.65) to be hospitalized than those in the most socially privileged areas, controlling for individuals' sociodemographic characteristics and health behaviours. Neighbourhood material deprivation did not exercise a statistically significant influence on hospitalization risk after adjusting for the other residential characteristics. Interpretation: There is a clear and significant gradient in diabetes-related hospitalization risk among Canadians with an underlying cardiometabolic condition by degree of residential remoteness and of neighbourhood social deprivation, independently of individual characteristics and despite Canada's universal healthcare system.

Residential Greenspace in Childhood Reduces Risk of Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental factors related to urbanization and industrialization are believed to be involved in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) development, but no study has looked at the association between greenspace and IBD. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked population-based health administrative and environmental data sets. The study population comprised 2,715,318 mother-infant pairs from hospital births in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 1991, and March 31, 2014. We measured the exposure to residential greenspace using the normalized difference vegetation index derived using remote-sensing methods. Average greenspace was estimated for the pregnancy and childhood periods. We used mixed-effects Cox proportional hazard models to assess potential associations between residential greenspace and the risk of developing IBD before 18 years while adjusting for covariates including sex, maternal IBD, rural/urban residence at birth, and neighborhood income. RESULTS: There were 3,444 IBD diagnoses that occurred during follow-up. An increase in the interquartile range of residential greenspace during the childhood period was associated with a lower risk of developing pediatric-onset IBD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.81). This relationship was significant for both ulcerative colitis (HR 0.72 95% CI 0.67-0.78) and Crohn's disease (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.76-0.87). There was a linear dose response across increasing quartiles of greenspace (P < 0.0001). No consistent association was detected between maternal intrapartum greenspace exposure and pediatric-onset IBD. DISCUSSION: Higher exposure to residential greenspace during childhood was associated with a reduced risk of IBD, suggesting a novel avenue to prevent IBD in children.

Neighbourhood environments and the risk of hospital admission for cardiometabolic and mental health comorbidities in multiple sclerosis: A population cohort analysis using linked administrative data.

This study exploits administrative data for neuroepidemiological research and examines associations between neighbourhood environments and risk of hospitalization among multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in New Brunswick, Canada. We created a provincial database of MS patients by linking administrative health records with geographic-based characteristics of local communities. Using Cox models, we found the risk of admission for cardiometabolic complications was lower among residents of ethnically homogeneous neighbourhoods (hazards ratio [HR]: 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-0.95]); that for mental health disorders was higher in socioeconomically deprived (HR: 1.80 [95% CI: 1.06-3.05]) and residentially unstable (HR: 1.61 [95% CI: 1.05-2.46]) neighbourhoods. Results suggest that selected neighbourhood environments may be associated with differential hospital burden among MS patients.

Residential greenness and indicators of stress and mental well-being in a Canadian national-level survey.

BACKGROUND: Residential proximity to greenness in urban areas has been shown to confer a number of health benefits, including improved mental health. We investigated whether greenness was associated with self-reported stress, distress, and mental health among adult participants of multiple cycles of a national Canadian health survey, and whether these associations varied by sex, age, income, and neighbourhood characteristics. METHODS: Our study population included 397,900 participants of the Canadian Community Health Survey, 18 years of age or older, who lived in census metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2015. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to characterize participants' exposure to greenness within 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km buffers from a representative location of their postal code. Health outcomes included: self-reported perceptions of life stress, psychological distress, and self-rated mental health. We used multiple regression models, adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood-level variables to estimate associations (and 95% confidence intervals) between each outcome and exposure to greenness. FINDINGS: In models with all participants, we observed 6% lower odds of poor self-rated mental health per increase in the interquartile range (i.e., 0.12) of NDVI within a 500 m buffer. Across the three outcomes, we found substantial heterogeneity in effect size across categories of sex, age, and community-level indicators of deprivation and urban form. For example, each incremental increase in greenness exposure was associated with a reduction of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.81 to -0.51) on the K10 psychological distress score among those living in the active core of cities, and with an increase of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.03-0.12) on this score among those living in the most suburban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the potential benefits of residential greenness on mental health vary across personal and neighbourhood-level characteristics and are sensitive to how the outcome is measured. Additional research is needed to understand which features of greenness are most relevant to different sub-groups of the population to maximize these health benefits.

Ethnocultural and socioeconomic disparities in exposure to residential greenness within urban Canada.

BACKGROUND: Residential greenness has been associated with health benefits, such as lower risk of mortality, cardiovascular disease, obesity, adverse birth outcomes and asthma and better psychological health. However, the variation in greenness across socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in urban areas of Canada has not been well documented. DATA AND METHODS: Respondents to the 2016 Census long-form questionnaire were assigned estimates of exposure to residential greenness based on the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (from 2012 or the most recent year available) within a 500 m buffer around their home, based on postal code. Census weights were used to determine differences in average exposure to greenness according to selected demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. RESULTS: Mean residential greenness among the 5.3 million census respondents in urban Canada was 0.44 units of the NDVI (standard deviation = 0.18 units). Greenness was lower among immigrants (particularly recent immigrants), some groups designated as visible minorities (particularly people of Filipino ancestry), lower-income households and tenants (i.e., NDVI values ranging from 0.40 to 0.43 units). Greenness values were highest among White non-immigrants and higher-income households (i.e., NDVI values ranging from 0.46 to 0.47 units). DISCUSSION: Given the potentially multifaceted role that greenness plays in health outcomes, the inequalities in residential greenness described here may contribute to producing or exacerbating existing health inequalities in the Canadian population.

Evaluating the Sensitivity of PM2.5-Mortality Associations to the Spatial and Temporal Scale of Exposure Assessment.

BACKGROUND: The temporal and spatial scales of exposure assessment may influence observed associations between fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and mortality, but few studies have systematically examined this question. METHODS: We followed 2.4 million adults in the 2001 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort for nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality between 2001 and 2011. We assigned PM2.5 exposures to residential locations using satellite-based estimates and compared three different temporal moving averages (1, 3, and 8 years) and three spatial scales (1, 5, and 10 km) of exposure assignment. In addition, we examined different spatial scales based on age, employment status, and urban/rural location, and adjustment for O3, NO2, or their combined oxidant capacity (Ox). RESULTS: In general, longer moving averages resulted in stronger associations between PM2.5 and mortality. For nonaccidental mortality, we observed a hazard ratio of 1.11 (95% CI = 1.08, 1.13) for the 1-year moving average compared with 1.23 (95% CI = 1.20, 1.27) for the 8-year moving average. Respiratory and lung cancer mortality were most sensitive to the spatial scale of exposure assessment with stronger associations observed at smaller spatial scales. Adjustment for oxidant gases attenuated associations between PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality and strengthened associations with lung cancer. Despite these variations, PM2.5 was associated with increased mortality in nearly all of the models examined. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support a relationship between outdoor PM2.5 and mortality at low concentrations and highlight the importance of longer-exposure windows, more spatially resolved exposure metrics, and adjustment for oxidant gases in characterizing this relationship.

Urban green space and the risks of dementia and stroke.

INTRODUCTION: It is unknown whether urban green space is associated with reduced risk of major neurological conditions, especially dementia and stroke. METHODS: Retrospective, population-based cohorts were created for each study outcome, including 1.7 and 4.3 million adults in Ontario, Canada for dementia and stroke, respectively. Residential green space was quantified using the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Incidence was ascertained using health administrative data with validated algorithms. Mixed-effects Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios per interquartile range increase in green space exposure. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2013, 219,013 individuals were diagnosed with dementia and 89,958 had a stroke. The hazard ratio per interquartile range increase in green space was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96-0.98) for dementia and 0.96 (0.95-0.98) for stroke. Estimates remained generally consistent in sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Increased exposure to urban green space was associated with reduced incidence of dementia and stroke. To our knowledge, this is the first population-based cohort study to assess these relationships.

Provider volume and maternal complications after Caesarean section: results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: A large literature search suggests a relationship between hospital/surgeon caseload volume and surgical complications. In this study, we describe associations between post-operative maternal complications following Caesarean section and provider caseload volume, provider years since graduation, and provider specialization, while adjusting for hospital volumes and patient characteristics. METHODS: Our analysis is based on population-based discharge abstract data for the period of April 2004 to March 2014, linked to patient and physician universal coverage registry data. We consider all hospital admissions (N = 20,914) in New Brunswick, Canada, where a Caesarean Section surgery was recorded, as identified by a Canadian Classification of Health Intervention code of 5.MD.60.XX. We ran logistic regression models to identify the odds of occurrence of post-surgical complications during the hospital stay. RESULTS: Roughly 2.6% of admissions had at least one of the following groups of complications: disseminated intravascular coagulation, postpartum sepsis, postpartum hemorrhage, and postpartum infection. The likelihood of complication was negatively associated with provider volume and provider years of experience, and positively associated with having a specialization other than maternal-fetal medicine or obstetrics and gynecology. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that measures of physician training and experience are associated with the likelihood of Caesarean Section complications. In the context of a rural province deciding on the number of rural hospitals to keep open, this suggests a trade off between the benefits of increased volume versus the increased travel time for patients.

Individual and community-level income and the risk of diabetes rehospitalization among women and men: a Canadian population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Marked disparities by socioeconomic status in the risk of potentially avoidable hospitalization for chronic illnesses have been observed in many contexts, including those with universal health coverage. Less well known is how gender mediates such differences. We conducted a population-based cohort study to describe associations between household and community-level income and rehospitalizations for types 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus among Canadian women and men. METHODS: Our cohorts were drawn from respondents to the 2006 mandatory long-form census linked longitudinally to 3 years of nationally standardized hospital records. We included adults 30-69 years hospitalized with diabetes at least once during the study period. We used logistic regressions to estimate odds ratios for 12-month diabetes rehospitalization associated with indicators of household and community-level income, with separate models by gender, and controlling for a range of other sociodemographic characteristics. Since diabetes may not always be recognized as the main reason for hospitalization, we accounted for disease progression through consideration of admissions where diabetes was previously identified as a secondary diagnosis. RESULTS: Among persons hospitalized at least once with diabetes (n = 41,290), 1.5% were readmitted within 12 months where the initial admission had diabetes as the primary diagnosis, and 1.8% were readmitted where the initial admission had diabetes as a secondary diagnosis. For men, being in the lowest household income quintile was associated with higher odds of rehospitalization in cases where the initial admission listed diabetes as either the primary diagnosis (OR = 2.21; 95% CI = 1.38-3.51) or a secondary diagnosis (OR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.02-2.24). For women, we found no association with income and rehospitalization, but having less than university education was associated with higher odds of rehospitalization where diabetes was a secondary diagnosis of the initial admission (OR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.21-2.92). We also found positive, but insignificant associations between community-level poverty and odds of rehospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Universal health coverage remains insufficient to eliminate socioeconomic inequalities in preventable diabetes-related hospitalizations, as illustrated in this Canadian context. Decision-makers should tread cautiously with gender-blind poverty reduction actions aiming to enhance population health that may inadequately respond to the different needs of disadvantaged women and men with chronic illness.

Provider caseload volume and short-term outcomes following colorectal surgeries in New Brunswick: a provincial-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: American studies have shown that higher provider and hospital volumes are associated with reduced risk of mortality following colorectal surgical interventions. Evidence from Canada is limited, and to our knowledge only a single study has considered outcomes other than death. We describe associations between provider surgical volume and all-cause mortality and postoperative complications following colorectal surgical interventions in New Brunswick. METHODS: We used hospital discharge abstracts linked to vital statistics, the provincial cancer registry and patient registry data. We considered all admissions for colorectal surgeries from 2007 through 2013. We used logistic regression to identify odds of dying and odds of complications (from any of anastomosis leak, unplanned colostomy, intra-abdominal sepsis or pneumonia) within 30 days of discharge from hospital according to provider volume (i.e., total interventions performed over the preceding 2 years) adjusted for personal, contextual, provider and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 9170 interventions were performed by 125 providers across 18 hospitals. We found decreased odds of experiencing a complication following colorectal surgery per increment of 10 interventions performed per year (odds ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.91-0.96). We found no associations with mortality. Associations remained consistent across models restricted to cancer patients or to interventions performed by general surgeons and across models that also considered overall hospital volumes. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that increased caseloads are associated with reduced odds of complications, but not with all-cause mortality, following colorectal surgery in New Brunswick. We also found no evidence of volume having differential effects on outcomes from colon and rectal procedures.

CONTEXTE: Des études américaines ont montré que le volume d'activité des chirurgiens et des hôpitaux est inversement proportionnel au risque de mortalité après la chirurgie colorectale. Les données pour le Canada sont limitées, et à notre connaissance, une seule étude a porté sur d'autres paramètres que le décès. Nous avons décrit les liens entre volume d'activité des chirurgiens et mortalité de toute cause/complications postopératoires après la chirurgie colorectale au Nouveau-Brunswick. MÉTHODES: Nous avons utilisé les registres de congés des hôpitaux reliés aux données de la Statistique de l'état civil, du registre provincial du cancer et du registre des patients. Nous avons recensé toutes les admissions pour chirurgie colorectale de 2007 à 2013. Nous avons utilisé la régression logistique pour établir le risque de décès et le risque de complications (fuite anastomotique, colostomie non planifiée, infection intra-abdominale ou pneumonie) dans les 30 jours suivant le congé de l'hôpital par rapport au volume d'activité des chirurgiens (c.-à-d., interventions totales des 2 années précédentes) ajusté en fonction des caractéristiques individuelles et contextuelles, propres aux chirurgiens et aux hôpitaux. RÉSULTATS: En tout, 125 chirurgiens ont effectué 9170 interventions dans 18 hôpitaux. Nous avons observé un risque moindre de complications après la chirurgie colorectale pour chaque palier de 10 interventions effectuées annuellement (risque relatif 0,94, intervalle de confiance de 95 %, 0,91­0,96). Nous n'avons observé aucun lien avec la mortalité. Les liens sont demeurés constants, peu importe que les modèles soient restreints aux patients cancéreux ou aux interventions effectuées par des chirurgiens généraux et entre les modèles qui tenaient également compte du volume global d'activité des hôpitaux. CONCLUSION: Selon nos résultats, l'augmentation du volume d'activité est associée à un risque moindre de complications, mais n'a pas de lien avec la mortalité de toute cause après la chirurgie colorectale au Nouveau-Brunswick. Nous n'avons pas non plus constaté de lien entre le volume d'activité et l'issue différentielle de la chirurgie du côlon et du rectum.

Associations between provider and hospital volumes and postoperative mortality following total hip arthroplasty in New Brunswick: results from a provincial-level cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several international studies have reported negative associations between hospital and/or provider volume and risk of postoperative death following total hip arthroplasty (THA). The only Canadian studies to report on this have been based in Ontario and have found no such association. We describe associations between postoperative deaths following THA and provider caseload volume, also adjusted for hospital volume, in a population-based cohort in New Brunswick. METHODS: Our analyses are based on hospital discharge abstract data linked to vital statistics and to patient registry data. We considered all first known admissions for THA in New Brunswick between Jan. 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2013. Provider volume was defined as total THAs performed over the preceding 2 years. We fit logistic regression models to identify odds of dying within 30 and 90 days according to provider caseload volume adjusted for selected personal and contextual characteristics. RESULTS: About 7095 patients were admitted for THA in New Brunswick over the 7-year study period and 170 died within 30 days. We found no associations with provider volume and postoperative mortality in any of our models. Adjustment for contextual characteristics or hospital volume had no effects on this association. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that patients admitted for hip replacements in New Brunswick can expect to have similar risk of death regardless of whether they are admitted to see a provider with high or low THA volumes and of whether they are admitted to the province's larger or smaller hospitals.

CONTEXTE: Plusieurs études internationales rapportent un lien négatif entre le volume d'activité de l'hôpital ou du fournisseur de soins de santé et le risque de décès postopératoire lié à une arthroplastie totale de la hanche. Les seules études canadiennes qui se sont intéressées à cette question ont été réalisées en Ontario et n'ont pas rapporté ce lien. Dans notre étude, nous tentons de décrire des liens entre le décès postopératoire lié à une arthroplastie totale de la hanche et le volume de la charge de travail du fournisseur de soins de santé, également ajustés pour tenir compte du volume d'activité de l'hôpital, au sein d'une cohorte basée sur la population au Nouveau-Brunswick. MÉTHODES: Nos analyses reposent sur les données portant sur les congés des hôpitaux, associées aux statistiques de l'état civil et aux données des registres des patients. Nous avons examiné toutes les premières hospitalisations connues en vue d'une arthroplastie totale de la hanche au Nouveau-Brunswick entre le 1er janvier 2007 et le 31 décembre 2013. Le volume d'activité du fournisseur de soins de santé a été défini comme étant la totalité des arthroplasties totales de la hanche pratiquées au cours des 2 années précédentes. Nous avons ajusté les modèles de régression logistique de manière à identifier le risque de décès dans les 30 et 90 jours en fonction du volume de la charge de travail du fournisseur de soins de santé, pour tenir compte de caractéristiques personnelles et contextuelles choisies. RÉSULTATS: Environ 7095 patients ont été admis pour une arthroplastie totale de la hanche au Nouveau-Brunswick au cours de la période de 7 ans à l'étude, et 170 patients sont décédés dans les 30 jours. Nous n'avons pas observé de liens entre le volume d'activité du fournisseur de soins de santé et la mortalité postopératoire dans nos modèles. L'ajustement pour tenir compte des caractéristiques contextuelles ou du volume d'activité de l'hôpital n'a eu aucune incidence sur ce lien. CONCLUSION: Nos résultats suggèrent que les patients hospitalisés afin de subir une arthroplastie de la hanche au Nouveau-Brunswick peuvent s'attendre à un risque similaire de décès, peu importe que leur fournisseur de soins de santé pratique un volume faible ou élevé d'arthroplasties totales de la hanche ou que le patient soit admis dans un petit ou un grand hôpital de la province.

Comparison of spatiotemporal prediction models of daily exposure of individuals to ambient nitrogen dioxide and ozone in Montreal, Canada.

BACKGROUND: In previous studies investigating the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution the exposure metric that is often used is the daily average across monitors, thus assuming that all individuals have the same daily exposure. Studies that incorporate space-time exposures of individuals are essential to further our understanding of the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution. OBJECTIVES: As part of a longitudinal cohort study of the acute effects of air pollution that incorporated subject-specific information and medical histories of subjects throughout the follow-up, the purpose of this study was to develop and compare different prediction models using data from fixed-site monitors and other monitoring campaigns to estimate daily, spatially-resolved concentrations of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) of participants' residences in Montreal, 1991-2002. METHODS: We used the following methods to predict spatially-resolved daily concentrations of O3 and NO2 for each geographic region in Montreal (defined by three-character postal code areas): (1) assigning concentrations from the nearest monitor; (2) spatial interpolation using inverse-distance weighting; (3) back-extrapolation from a land-use regression model from a dense monitoring survey, and; (4) a combination of a land-use and Bayesian maximum entropy model. We used a variety of indices of agreement to compare estimates of exposure assigned from the different methods, notably scatterplots of pairwise predictions, distribution of differences and computation of the absolute agreement intraclass correlation (ICC). For each pairwise prediction, we also produced maps of the ICCs by these regions indicating the spatial variability in the degree of agreement. RESULTS: We found some substantial differences in agreement across pairs of methods in daily mean predicted concentrations of O3 and NO2. On a given day and postal code area the difference in the concentration assigned could be as high as 131ppb for O3 and 108ppb for NO2. For both pollutants, better agreement was found between predictions from the nearest monitor and the inverse-distance weighting interpolation methods, with ICCs of 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89, 0.89) for O3 and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.80, 0.81) for NO2, respectively. For this pair of methods the maximum difference on a given day and postal code area was 36ppb for O3 and 74ppb for NO2. The back-extrapolation method showed a higher degree of disagreement with the nearest monitor approach, inverse-distance weighting interpolation, and the Bayesian maximum entropy model, which were strongly constrained by the sparse monitoring network. The maps showed that the patterns of agreement differed across the postal code areas and the variability depended on the pair of methods compared and the pollutants. For O3, but not NO2, postal areas showing greater disagreement were mostly located near the city centre and along highways, especially in maps involving the back-extrapolation method. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the substantial differences in daily concentrations of O3 and NO2 predicted by the different methods, we suggest that analyses of the health effects from air pollution should make use of multiple exposure assessment methods. Although we cannot make any recommendations as to which is the most valid method, models that make use of higher spatially resolved data, such as from dense exposure surveys or from high spatial resolution satellite data, likely provide the most valid estimates.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution and the risk of lung cancer among participants of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study.

Recently, air pollution has been classified as a carcinogen largely on the evidence of epidemiological studies of lung cancer. However, there have been few prospective studies that have evaluated associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) and cancer at lower concentrations. We conducted a prospective analysis of 89,234 women enrolled in the Canadian National Breast Screening Study between 1980 and 1985, and for whom residential measures of PM2.5 could be assigned. The cohort was linked to the Canadian Cancer Registry to identify incident lung cancers through 2004. Surface PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using satellite data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize associations between PM2.5 and lung cancer. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) computed from these models were adjusted for several individual-level characteristics, including smoking. The cohort was composed predominantly of Canadian-born (82%), married (80%) women with a median PM2.5 exposure of 9.1 µg/m(3) . In total, 932 participants developed lung cancer. In fully adjusted models, a 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM2.5 was associated with an elevated risk of lung cancer (HR: 1.34; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.65). The strongest associations were observed with small cell carcinoma (HR: 1.53; 95% CI = 0.93, 2.53) and adenocarcinoma (HR: 1.44; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.97). Stratified analyses suggested increased PM2.5 risks were limited to those who smoked cigarettes. Our findings are consistent with previous epidemiological investigations of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and lung cancer. Importantly, they suggest associations persist at lower concentrations such as those currently found in Canadian cities.

Air Pollution Exposure During Pregnancy and Fetal Markers of Metabolic function: The MIREC Study.

Previous evidence suggests that exposure to outdoor air pollution during pregnancy could alter fetal metabolic function, which could increase the risk of obesity in childhood. However, to our knowledge, no epidemiologic study has investigated the association between prenatal exposure to air pollution and indicators of fetal metabolic function. We investigated the association between maternal exposure to nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm) and umbilical cord blood leptin and adiponectin levels with mixed-effects linear regression models among 1,257 mother-infant pairs from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) Study, conducted in Canada (2008-2011). We observed that an interquartile-range increase in average exposure to fine particulate matter (3.2 µg/m(3)) during pregnancy was associated with an 11% (95% confidence interval: 4, 17) increase in adiponectin levels. We also observed 13% (95% confidence interval: 6, 20) higher adiponectin levels per interquartile-range increase in average exposure to nitrogen dioxide (13.6 parts per billion) during pregnancy. Significant associations were seen between air pollution markers and cord blood leptin levels in models that adjusted for birth weight z score but not in models that did not adjust for birth weight z score. The roles of prenatal exposure to air pollution and fetal metabolic function in the potential development of childhood obesity should be further explored.

Investigating the role of transportation models in epidemiologic studies of traffic related air pollution and health effects.

In two earlier case-control studies conducted in Montreal, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker for traffic-related air pollution was found to be associated with the incidence of postmenopausal breast cancer and prostate cancer. These studies relied on a land use regression model (LUR) for NO2 that is commonly used in epidemiologic studies for deriving estimates of traffic-related air pollution. Here, we investigate the use of a transportation model developed during the summer season to generate a measure of traffic emissions as an alternative to the LUR model. Our traffic model provides estimates of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the level of individual roads, as does the LUR model. Our main objective was to compare the distribution of the spatial estimates of NOx computed from our transportation model to the distribution obtained from the LUR model. A secondary objective was to compare estimates of risk using these two exposure estimates. We observed that the correlation (spearman) between our two measures of exposure (NO2 and NOx) ranged from less than 0.3 to more than 0.9 across Montreal neighborhoods. The most important factor affecting the "agreement" between the two measures in a specific area was found to be the length of roads. Areas affected by a high level of traffic-related air pollution had a far better agreement between the two exposure measures. A comparison of odds ratios (ORs) obtained from NO2 and NOx used in two case-control studies of breast and prostate cancer, showed that the differences between the ORs associated with NO2 exposure vs NOx exposure differed by 5.2-8.8%.

Indirect adjustment for multiple missing variables applicable to environmental epidemiology.

OBJECTIVES: Develop statistical methods for survival models to indirectly adjust hazard ratios of environmental exposures for missing risk factors. METHODS: A partitioned regression approach for linear models is applied to time to event survival analyses of cohort study data. Information on the correlation between observed and missing risk factors is obtained from ancillary data sources such as national health surveys. The relationship between the missing risk factors and survival is obtained from previously published studies. We first evaluated the methodology using simulations, by considering the Weibull survival distribution for a proportional hazards regression model with varied baseline functions, correlations between an adjusted variable and an adjustment variable as well as selected censoring rates. Then we illustrate the method in a large, representative Canadian cohort of the association between concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter and mortality from ischemic heart disease. RESULTS: Indirect adjustment for cigarette smoking habits and obesity increased the fine particulate matter-ischemic heart disease association by 3%-123%, depending on the number of variables considered in the adjustment model due to the negative correlation between these two risk factors and ambient air pollution concentrations in Canada. The simulations suggested that the method yielded small relative bias (<40%) for most cohort designs encountered in environmental epidemiology. CONCLUSIONS: This method can accommodate adjustment for multiple missing risk factors simultaneously while accounting for the associations between observed and missing risk factors and between missing risk factors and health endpoints.

Does urban greenness reduce loneliness and social isolation among Canadians? A cross-sectional study of middle-aged and older adults of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA).

OBJECTIVES: Urban greenness has been shown to confer many health benefits including reduced risks of chronic disease, depression, anxiety, and, in a limited number of studies, loneliness. In this first Canadian study on this topic, we investigated associations between residential surrounding greenness and loneliness and social isolation among older adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging included 26,811 urban participants between 45 and 86 years of age. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of greenness, was assigned to participants' residential addresses using a buffer distance of 500 m. We evaluated associations between the NDVI and (i) self-reported loneliness using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, (ii) whether participants reported "feeling lonely living in the local area", and (iii) social isolation. Logistic regression models were used to characterize associations between greenness and loneliness/social isolation while adjusting for individual socio-economic and health behaviours. RESULTS: Overall, 10.8% of participants perceived being lonely, while 6.5% reported "feeling lonely in their local area". Furthermore, 16.2% of participants were characterized as being socially isolated. In adjusted models, we observed no statistically significant difference (odds ratio (OR) = 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.04) in self-reported loneliness in relation to an interquartile range (IQR) increase of NDVI (0.06). However, for the same change in greenness, there was a 15% (OR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.72-0.99) reduced risk for participants who strongly agreed with "feeling lonely living in the local area". For social isolation, for an IQR increase in the NDVI, we observed a 7% (OR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.97) reduction in prevalence. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that urban greenness plays a role in reducing loneliness and social isolation among Canadian urbanites.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Il est démontré que la verdure urbaine confère de nombreux avantages pour la santé; elle réduit notamment les risques de maladies chroniques, de dépression et d'anxiété et, selon un petit nombre d'études, le risque de solitude. Dans cette première étude canadienne sur le sujet, nous avons étudié les associations entre la verdure de l'environnement résidentiel et la solitude et l'isolement social chez les adultes d'âge mûr. MéTHODE: Cette analyse transversale de l'Étude longitudinale canadienne sur le vieillissement a inclus 26 811 participantes et participants urbains de 45 à 86 ans. L'indice de végétation par différence normalisée (IVDN), un indicateur de verdure, a été assigné à l'adresse domiciliaire dans une zone tampon de 500 m. Nous avons évalué les associations entre l'IVDN et i) la solitude autodéclarée selon l'échelle de dépression du Center for Epidemiological Studies, ii) le fait de déclarer « vivre de la solitude dans sa zone locale ¼ et iii) l'isolement social. Des modèles de régression logistique ont servi à caractériser les associations entre la verdure et la solitude/l'isolement social, et nous avons apporté des ajustements pour tenir compte du statut socioéconomique et des comportements de santé individuels. RéSULTATS: Globalement, 10,8 % des participantes et des participants se sentaient seuls, et 6,5 % disaient « vivre de la solitude dans leur zone locale ¼. De plus, 16,2 % des participantes et des participants ont été caractérisés comme étant socialement isolés. Dans nos modèles ajustés, nous n'avons observé aucun écart significatif (rapport de cotes (RC) = 0,99; IC de 95 % : 0,93­1,04) dans la solitude autodéclarée en lien avec une augmentation de l'écart interquartile (EI) de l'IVDN (0,06). Cependant, pour le même changement dans la verdure, la probabilité pour les participantes et les participants d'être tout à fait d'accord avec l'énoncé qu'ils « vivent de la solitude dans leur zone locale ¼ était réduite de 15 % (RC = 0,85, IC de 95 % : 0,72­0,99). Et pour chaque augmentation de l'EI de l'IVDN, nous avons observé une baisse de 7 % (RC = 0,93, IC de 95 % : 0,88­0,97) de la prévalence de l'isolement social. CONCLUSION: Nos constatations indiquent que la verdure urbaine joue un rôle dans la réduction de la solitude et de l'isolement social chez les citadins et citadines au Canada.

Traffic-related air pollution and prostate cancer risk: a case-control study in Montreal, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: There is a paucity of information on environmental risk factors for prostate cancer. We conducted a case-control study in Montreal to estimate associations with exposure to ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker for traffic-related air pollution. METHODS: Cases were 803 men with incident prostate cancer, ≤75 years of age, and diagnosed across all French hospitals in Montreal. Concurrently, 969 controls were drawn from electoral lists of French-speaking individuals residing in the same electoral districts as the cases and frequency-matched by age. Concentrations of NO2 were measured across Montreal in 2005-2006. We developed a land use regression model to predict concentrations of NO2 across Montreal for 2006. These estimates were back-extrapolated to 1996. Estimates were linked to residential addresses at the time of diagnosis or interview. Unconditional logistic regression was used, adjusting for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: For each increase of 5 parts per billion of NO2, as estimated from the original land use regression model in 2006, the OR5ppb adjusted for personal factors was 1.44 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.73). Adding in contextual factors attenuated the OR5ppb to 1.27 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.58). One method for back-extrapolating concentrations of NO2 to 1996 (about 10 years before the index date) gave the following OR5ppb: 1.41 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.62) when personal factors were included, and 1.30 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.52) when contextual factors were added. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to ambient concentrations of NO2 at the current address was associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. This novel finding requires replication.

A web-based route planning tool to reduce cyclists' exposures to traffic pollution: a case study in Montreal, Canada.

We developed a web-based route planning tool for cyclists in Montreal, Canada, using spatial monitoring data for ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2). With this tool, we estimated exposures to NO2 along shortest routes and lower exposure alternatives using origin-destination survey data. On average, exposures were estimated to be lower by 0.76 ppb (95% CI: 0.72, 0.80) relative to the shortest route, with decreases of up to 6.1 ppb for a single trip. Cumulative exposure levels (ppb km) decreased by approximately 4%. In general, the benefits of decreased exposure could be achieved with little increase (less than 1 km) in the overall route length.