Predicting community acquired bloodstream infection in infants using full blood count parameters and C-reactive protein; a machine learning study.

Early recognition of bloodstream infection (BSI) in infants can be difficult, as symptoms may be non-specific, and culture can take up to 48 h. As a result, many infants receive unneeded antibiotic treatment while awaiting the culture results. In this study, we aimed to develop a model that can reliably identify infants who do not have positive blood cultures (and, by extension, BSI) based on the full blood count (FBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) values. Several models (i.e. multivariable logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, K nearest neighbors, support vector machine, random forest model and decision tree) were trained using FBC and CRP values of 2693 infants aged 7 to 60 days with suspected BSI between 2005 and 2022 in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Dublin, Ireland. All models tested showed similar sensitivities (range 47% - 62%) and specificities (range 85%-95%). A trained decision tree and random forest model were applied to the full dataset and to a dataset containing infants with suspected BSI in 2023 and showed good segregation of a low-risk and high-risk group. Negative predictive values for these two models were high for the full dataset (> 99%) and for the 2023 dataset (> 97%), while positive predictive values were low in both dataset (4%-20%).   Conclusion: We identified several models that can predict positive blood cultures in infants with suspected BSI aged 7 to 60 days. Application of these models could prevent administration of antimicrobial treatment and burdensome diagnostics in infants who do not need them. What is Known: • Bloodstream infection (BSI) in infants cause non-specific symptoms and may be difficult to diagnose. • Results of blood cultures can take up to 48 hours. What is New: • Machine learning models can contribute to clinical decision making on BSI in infants while blood culture results are not yet known.

Increased rates of invasive bacterial disease in late 2022.

Invasive bacterial disease is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In winter 2022, there was an apparent increased rate of invasive bacterial disease compared to preceding years. Cross-site retrospective analysis of the three Children's Health Ireland (CHI) hospitals looking at children admitted between 1st October 2022-31st December 2022 (Q4) with community-acquired invasive bacterial disease, defined as an abscess in a normally sterile site in the head, neck and chest or isolation or PCR detection of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A streptococcus) or Haemophilus influenzae from a normally sterile site. Case numbers were compared to Q4 in each of 2018-2021. Eighty-two children met the case definition in Q4 2022 vs 97 (Q4 2018-2021). In 2022, 42/82 (51%) were female, median age 3.75 years (1.5-8.25 years). Only 2 (2%) were immunosuppressed and 2 others (2%) had underlying neurodisability. Fifty (61%) were admitted on second or subsequent presentation to a healthcare setting. Fifty-six (68%) had an abscess in a sterile site. Bloodstream infection (positive blood culture or PCR: 24 (29%)) was the most common site of infection, followed by neck 22 (27%) and intracranial 12 (15%). Group A streptococcus (GAS) 27 (33%) was the most common organism isolated. Seven cases (9%) died in 2022 compared to 2 patients (2%) from 2018 to 2021 (p < 0.05). More children had Paediatric Overall Performance Category (POPC) scores > 1 in 2022 than 2018-2021 (p = 0.003).  Conclusion: Invasive bacterial diseases increased in Q4 2022 with higher morbidity and mortality than in the preceding 4 years. Group A streptococcal infection was the most significant organism in 2022. What is known: • Invasive bacterial disease is the leading cause of childhood mortality globally. • There was an increase in cases of invasive Group A streptococcus infections reported in many countries (including Ireland) during the winter of 2022/23. What is new: • Head, neck and chest abscesses increased in Q4 of 2022 compared to the previous 4 years combined. • Invasive bacterial infections in Q4 of 2022 were associated with higher rates of mortality (9%), paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission (24%) and requirement for surgical drainage or intervention (67%) than in the preceding years.

Outbreak of invasive Group A streptococcus disease in a nursing home in Ireland in February 2023 caused by emm type 18.

An out-of-season increase in cases of invasive Group A streptococcus (iGAS) was observed in Ireland between October 2022 and August 2023. We describe the management of an iGAS outbreak involving three nursing home residents in Ireland in early 2023. A regional Department of Public Health was notified of an iGAS case in a nursing home resident in January 2023. When two further cases among residents were notified 7 days later, an outbreak was declared. Surveillance for GAS/iGAS infection in residents and staff was undertaken. The site was visited to provide infection prevention and control (IPC) support. Isolates were emm typed. A total of 38 residents and 29 staff in contact with resident cases were provided with antibiotic chemoprophylaxis. Seven additional staff with no direct resident contact also received chemoprophylaxis after finding one probable localised GAS infection among them. No more iGAS cases subsequently occurred.Site visit recommendations included advice on terminal cleaning and cleaning of shared equipment, as well as strengthening staff education on hand hygiene and masking. All isolates were of emm subtype 18.12, a subtype not previously detected in Ireland. Key outbreak control measures were rapid delivery of IPC support and chemoprophylaxis. Emm18 is infrequently associated with GAS infections.

Invasive pneumococcal surveillance to assess the potential benefits of extended spectrum conjugate vaccines (PCV15/PCV20) in older adults.

The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into the childhood vaccination programme has reduced invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Although anticipated from data elsewhere, surveillance in Ireland has confirmed reductions in IPD amongst those ⩾65 years of age due to a decline of PCV serotypes in this age group. Currently, direct protection against IPD in the elderly is focused on immunisation with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). However, immunity may not be as effective as with PCV and, furthermore, PPV23 uptake is poor in Ireland. Hence, consideration should be given to providing a PCV to this age group.

Neurological involvement in children with hemolytic uremic syndrome.

Our objective was to establish the rate of neurological involvement in Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli-hemolytic uremic syndrome (STEC-HUS) and describe the clinical presentation, management and outcome. A retrospective chart review of children aged ≤ 16 years with STEC-HUS in Children's Health Ireland from 2005 to 2018 was conducted. Laboratory confirmation of STEC infection was required for inclusion. Neurological involvement was defined as encephalopathy, focal neurological deficit, and/or seizure activity. Data on clinical presentation, management, and outcome were collected. We identified 240 children with HUS; 202 had confirmed STEC infection. Neurological involvement occurred in 22 (11%). The most common presentation was seizures (73%). In the neurological group, 19 (86%) were treated with plasma exchange and/or eculizumab. Of the 21 surviving children with neurological involvement, 19 (91%) achieved a complete neurological recovery. A higher proportion of children in the neurological group had renal sequelae (27% vs. 12%, P = .031). One patient died from multi-organ failure.Conclusion: We have identified the rate of neurological involvement in a large cohort of children with STEC-HUS as 11%. Neurological involvement in STEC-HUS is associated with good long-term outcome (complete neurological recovery in 91%) and a low case-fatality rate (4.5%) in our cohort. What is Known: • HUS is associated with neurological involvement in up to 30% of cases. • Neurological involvement has been reported as predictor of poor outcome, with associated increased morbidity and mortality. What is New: • The incidence of neurological involvement in STEC-HUS is 11%. • Neurological involvement is associated with predominantly good long-term outcome (90%) and a reduced case-fatality rate (4.5%) compared to older reports.

Uncovering Infant Group B Streptococcal (GBS) Disease Clusters in the United Kingdom and Ireland Through Genomic Analysis: A Population-based Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: The true frequency of hospital outbreaks of invasive group B streptococcal (iGBS; Streptococcus agalactiae) disease in infants is unknown. We used whole genome sequencing (WGS) of iGBS isolates collected during a period of enhanced surveillance of infant iGBS disease in the UK and Ireland to determine the number of clustered cases. METHODS: Potentially linked iGBS cases from infants with early (<7 days of life) or late-onset (7-89 days) disease were identified from WGS data (HiSeq 2500 platform, Illumina) from clinical sterile site isolates collected between 04/2014 and 04/2015. We assessed time and place of cases to determine a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) difference threshold for clustered cases. Case details were augmented through linkage to national hospital admission data and hospital record review by local microbiologists. RESULTS: Analysis of sequences indicated a cutoff of ≤5 SNP differences to define iGBS clusters. Among 410 infant iGBS isolates, we identified 7 clusters (4 genetically identical pairs with 0 SNP differences, 1 pair with 3 SNP differences, 1 cluster of 4 cases with ≤1 SNP differences) of which 4 clusters were uncovered for the first time. The clusters comprised 16 cases, of which 15 were late-onset (of 192 late-onset cases with sequenced isolates) and 1 an early-onset index case. Serial intervals between cases ranged from 0 to 59 (median 12) days. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 12 late-onset infant iGBS cases were part of a hospital cluster. Over half of the clusters were previously undetected, emphasizing the importance of routine submission of iGBS isolates to reference laboratories for cluster identification and genomic confirmation.

Epidemiology of Haemophilus influenzae in the Republic of Ireland, 2010-2018.

The purpose of this study was to investigate H. influenzae epidemiology in the Republic of Ireland. We performed serotyping, multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and susceptibility testing on H. influenzae isolates received by the Irish Meningitis and Sepsis Reference Laboratory from 2010 to 2018. Three hundred sixty-seven invasive and 41 non-invasive infection (NII) isolates were received. Invasive isolates were mostly recovered from paediatric (21%) and elderly (42%) populations. Invasive disease was more prevalent in females of childbearing age (72%) compared with males the same age (28%). Non-typeable H. influenzae (NTHi) predominated among invasive (83%) and NII (95%). Invasive Hib disease isolates were infrequent (4%, n = 15). Among invasive disease, Hif was the commonest encapsulated serotype (10%, n = 37), and the only encapsulated serotype detected in NII (5%, 2/41). The first PCR-confirmed serotypes d and a in Ireland were characterised among invasive disease in 2017 and 2018, respectively. MLST revealed a diverse NTHi population, while encapsulated serotypes were clonal. Sequence type (ST) 103 (n = 14) occurred exclusively in invasive NTHi disease. Ampicillin resistance (AmpR) was 18% among invasive isolates and 22% in NII. ß-Lactamase production was the main source of ampicillin resistance in invasive and NII isolates. We detected ß-lactamase negative ampicillin resistance (BLNAR) among invasive isolates. We report an NTHi fluoroquinolone-resistant clone: ST1524 among invasive (n = 2) and NII isolates (n = 2). The Hib vaccine has positively impacted on Hib disease in Ireland, given the low frequency of Hib. The dominance of NTHi, emergence of serotypes a and d and BLNAR suggest a changing H. influenzae epidemiology in Ireland.

Duplex recombinase polymerase amplification assays incorporating competitive internal controls for bacterial meningitis detection.

Recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) is an isothermal nucleic acid amplification technology that provides rapid and robust infectious disease pathogen detection, ideal for point-of-care (POC) diagnostics in disease-prevalent low-resource countries. We have developed and evaluated three duplex RPA assays incorporating competitive internal controls for the detection of leading bacterial meningitis pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis and Haemophilus influenzae singleplex RPA assays were initially developed and evaluated, demonstrating 100% specificity with limits of detection of 4.1, 8.5 and 3.9 genome copies per reaction, respectively. Each assay was further developed into internally controlled duplex RPA assays via the incorporation of internal amplification control templates. Clinical performance of each internally controlled duplex RPA assay was evaluated by testing 64 archived PCR-positive clinical samples. Compared to real-time PCR, all duplex RPA assays demonstrated 100% diagnostic specificity, with diagnostic sensitivities of 100%, 86.3% and 100% for the S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis and H. influenzae assays, respectively. This study details the first report of internally controlled duplex RPA assays for the detection of bacterial meningitis pathogens: S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis and H. influenzae. We have successfully demonstrated the clinical diagnostic utility of each duplex RPA assay, introducing effective diagnostic technology for POC bacterial meningitis identification in disease-prevalent developing countries.

Evaluation of an Internally Controlled Multiplex Tth Endonuclease Cleavage Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (TEC-LAMP) Assay for the Detection of Bacterial Meningitis Pathogens.

Bacterial meningitis infection is a leading global health concern for which rapid and accurate diagnosis is essential to reduce associated morbidity and mortality. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) offers an effective low-cost diagnostic approach; however, multiplex LAMP is difficult to achieve, limiting its application. We have developed novel real-time multiplex LAMP technology, TEC-LAMP, using Tth endonuclease IV and a unique LAMP primer/probe. This study evaluates the analytical specificity, limit of detection (LOD) and clinical application of an internally controlled multiplex TEC-LAMP assay for detection of leading bacterial meningitis pathogens: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis and Haemophilus influenzae. Analytical specificities were established by testing 168 bacterial strains, and LODs were determined using Probit analysis. The TEC-LAMP assay was 100% specific, with LODs for S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis and H. influenzae of 39.5, 17.3 and 25.9 genome copies per reaction, respectively. Clinical performance was evaluated by testing 65 archived PCR-positive samples. Compared to singleplex real-time PCR, the multiplex TEC-LAMP assay demonstrated diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of 92.3% and 100%, respectively. This is the first report of a single-tube internally controlled multiplex LAMP assay for bacterial meningitis pathogen detection, and the first report of Tth endonuclease IV incorporation into nucleic acid amplification diagnostic technology.

Seroepidemiological and phylogenetic characterization of neurotropic enteroviruses in Ireland, 2005-2014.

Enteroviruses (EVs) are associated with a broad spectrum of clinical presentation, including aseptic meningitis (AM), encephalitis, hand, foot and mouth disease, acute flaccid paralysis, and acute flaccid myelitis. Epidemics occur sporadically and are associated with increased cases of AM in children. The present study describes the seroepidemiological analysis of circulating EVs in Ireland from 2005 to 2014 and phylogenetic characterization of echovirus 30 (E-30), enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), and enterovirus D68 (EV-D68). EV VP1 genotyping was applied to viral isolates and clinical samples, including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and those isolates that remained untypeable by neutralising anti-sera. An increase in AM cases from 2010 to 2014 was associated with an E-30 genogroup variant VII and sequences clustered phylogenetically with those detected in AM outbreaks in France and Italy. EV-D68 viral RNA was not detected in CSF samples and no neurological involvement was reported. Three EV-A71 positive CSF samples were identified in patients presenting with AM. A phylogenetic analysis of respiratory-associated EV-D68 and EV-A71 cases in circulation was performed to determine baseline epidemiological data. EV-D68 segregated with clades B and B(1) and EV-A71 clustered as subgenogroup C2. The EV VP1 genotyping method was more sensitive than neutralising anti-sera methods by virus culture and importantly demonstrated concordance between EV genotypes in faecal and CSF samples which should facilitate EV screening by less invasive sampling approaches in AM presentations.

Resolution of a Protracted Serogroup B Meningococcal Outbreak with Whole-Genome Sequencing Shows Interspecies Genetic Transfer.

A carriage study was undertaken (n = 112) to ascertain the prevalence of Neisseria spp. following the eighth case of invasive meningococcal disease in young children (5 to 46 months) and members of a large extended indigenous ethnic minority Traveller family (n = 123), typically associated with high-occupancy living conditions. Nested multilocus sequence typing (MLST) was employed for case specimen extracts. Isolates were genome sequenced and then were assembled de novo and deposited into the Bacterial Isolate Genome Sequencing Database (BIGSdb). This facilitated an expanded MLST approach utilizing large numbers of loci for isolate characterization and discrimination. A rare sequence type, ST-6697, predominated in disease specimens and isolates that were carried (n = 8/14), persisting for at least 44 months, likely driven by the high population density of houses (n = 67/112) and trailers (n = 45/112). Carriage for Neisseria meningitidis (P < 0.05) and Neisseria lactamica (P < 0.002) (2-sided Fisher's exact test) was more likely in the smaller, more densely populated trailers. Meningococcal carriage was highest in 24- to 39-year-olds (45%, n = 9/20). Evidence of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) was observed in four individuals cocolonized by Neisseria lactamica and Neisseria meningitidis One HGT event resulted in the acquisition of 26 consecutive N. lactamica alleles. This study demonstrates how housing density can drive meningococcal transmission and carriage, which likely facilitated the persistence of ST-6697 and prolonged the outbreak. Whole-genome MLST effectively distinguished between highly similar outbreak strain isolates, including those isolated from person-to-person transmission, and also highlighted how a few HGT events can distort the true phylogenetic relationship between highly similar clonal isolates.

Risk-adjusted antibiotic consumption in 34 public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2006 to 2014.

As antibiotic consumption rates between hospitals can vary depending on the characteristics of the patients treated, risk-adjustment that compensates for the patient-based variation is required to assess the impact of any stewardship measures. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of patient-based administrative data variables for adjusting aggregate hospital antibiotic consumption rates. Data on total inpatient antibiotics and six broad subclasses were sourced from 34 acute hospitals from 2006 to 2014. Aggregate annual patient administration data were divided into explanatory variables, including major diagnostic categories, for each hospital. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors affecting antibiotic consumption. Coefficient of variation of the root mean squared errors (CV-RMSE) for the total antibiotic usage model was very good (11%), however, the value for two of the models was poor (> 30%). The overall inpatient antibiotic consumption increased from 82.5 defined daily doses (DDD)/100 bed-days used in 2006 to 89.2 DDD/100 bed-days used in 2014; the increase was not significant after risk-adjustment. During the same period, consumption of carbapenems increased significantly, while usage of fluoroquinolones decreased. In conclusion, patient-based administrative data variables are useful for adjusting hospital antibiotic consumption rates, although additional variables should also be employed.

Noninvasive pneumococcal clones associated with antimicrobial nonsusceptibility isolated from children in the era of conjugate vaccines.

Carriage and noninvasive pneumococcal isolates frequently have a higher prevalence of antimicrobial nonsusceptibility than invasive isolates. From 2009 to 2014, we determined the associated clones in 169 pediatric noninvasive nonsusceptible pneumococci from a total of 506 isolates collected after 7- and 13-valent conjugate vaccine introduction (PCV7/13) to the Irish childhood immunization schedule in 2008 and 2010, respectively. We compared our results to those from 25 noninvasive pediatric pneumococcal isolates collected in 2007, the year before introduction of conjugate vaccines. In 2007, England(14)-9 and Spain(9V)-3 accounted for 12% and 32% of nonsusceptible clones, respectively, but in 2009 to 2014, their prevalence fell to 0% and 2.4%. Furthermore, there was a significant decline in Spain(6B)-2 and its variants from 2009 to 2014 (P = 0.0024). Fluctuations occurred in clonal complex 320 associated with serotype 19A. The prevalence of Sweden(15A)-25 and its variants and ST558 (a single-locus variant of Utah(35B)-24) associated with nonvaccine serotypes (NVT) 15A and 35B increased from 0% and 8% in 2007 to 19% and 16% in 2013 to 2014, respectively. Pilus locus 1 (PI-1) is associated with the spread of some nonsusceptible pneumococcal clones. PI-1 was more frequently associated with PCV7/13 serotypes than NVT (P = 0.0020). Our data highlight the value of surveillance of noninvasive pneumococci following conjugate vaccine introduction. Importantly, emerging clones associated with NVT may limit the effectiveness of PCV7/13 in reducing the high rate of nonsusceptibility among pediatric noninvasive pneumococci, with implications for empirical treatment strategies.

Molecular epidemiology of group B streptococci in Ireland reveals a diverse population with evidence of capsular switching.

The molecular epidemiology of group B Streptococcus (GBS) in Ireland was investigated. Invasive (n = 132) and non-invasive (n = 45) isolates, collected in 2007-2011, were analysed by multilocus locus sequence typing, capsular polysaccharide (CPS) serotyping, profiling of surface proteins, pilus islands (PI), and antimicrobial susceptibility. Isolates grouped into 45 sequence types and five main clonal complexes (CC). CC1, CC17 and CC23 represented 67.2 % of isolates and the most prevalent serotypes Ia, III and V. Serotype and surface protein genes were largely predictive of CC. Accordingly, CPS V/alp3, CPS Ib/CPS II/bca + bac, and CPS Ia/eps predominated in CC1, CC12 and CC23, respectively, and CPS III/rib in CC17 and CC19. Supporting their vaccine potential, all isolates harboured at least one PI, of which the PI-1 + PI-2a combination was most prevalent. Macrolide resistance was found in 18.6 % of isolates. erm(B) and the globally disseminated CC1/CPS V were the most common resistance mechanism and CC/CPS type, respectively. CC17, significantly associated with neonatal disease, was also prevalent in pregnant adults, but was underrepresented among non-pregnant adults. Two of 46 CC17 isolates (typically CPS III) were CPS IV. Sequence analysis confirmed capsular switching and their relatedness to CC17/CPS IV strains recently characterized in France. CPS IV, detected only in invasive isolates (6.8 %), was most prevalent in adults (12 %) and showed an increase in prevalence to that reported (1.4 %) for invasive isolates in Ireland 1997-1999. Increases in serotype IV and evidence of capsular switching in CC17 highlights the importance of ongoing surveillance of GBS and may have implications for vaccine development strategies.

The role and utilisation of public health evaluations in Europe: a case study of national hand hygiene campaigns.

BACKGROUND: Evaluations are essential to judge the success of public health programmes. In Europe, the proportion of public health programmes that undergo evaluation remains unclear. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control sought to determine the frequency of evaluations amongst European national public health programmes by using national hand hygiene campaigns as an example of intervention. METHODS: A cohort of all national hand hygiene campaigns initiated between 2000 and 2012 was utilised for the analysis. The aim was to collect information about evaluations of hand hygiene campaigns and their frequency. The survey was sent to nominated contact points for healthcare-associated infection surveillance in European Union and European Economic Area Member States. RESULTS: Thirty-six hand hygiene campaigns in 20 countries were performed between 2000 and 2012. Of these, 50% had undergone an evaluation and 55% of those utilised the WHO hand hygiene intervention self-assessment tool. Evaluations utilised a variety of methodologies and indicators in assessing changes in hand hygiene behaviours pre and post intervention. Of the 50% of campaigns that were not evaluated, two thirds reported that both human and financial resource constraints posed significant barriers for the evaluation. CONCLUSION: The study identified an upward trend in the number of hand hygiene campaigns implemented in Europe. It is likely that the availability of the internationally-accepted evaluation methodology developed by the WHO contributed to the evaluation of more hand hygiene campaigns in Europe. Despite this rise, hand hygiene campaigns appear to be under-evaluated. The development of simple, programme-specific, standardised guidelines, evaluation indicators and other evidence-based public health materials could help promote evaluations across all areas of public health.

Trends in tinea capitis in an Irish pediatric population and a comparison of scalp brushings versus scalp scrapings as methods of investigation.

A retrospective study of 391 children with suspected tinea capitis was analyzed to examine the prevalence of dermatophyte species and to compare the efficacy of the scalp scraping method with that of the hairbrush method for diagnoses over a 6-year period. Trichophyton tonsurans tinea capitis is the most common pathogen. The hairbrush method of obtaining specimens for fungal culture was superior to scalp scrapings (p = 0.03) in making the diagnosis, and using two methods (p < 0.001) increased the yield of identifying a dermatophyte infection.

Where to start? The Irish Emergency Department Antimicrobial Discharge (EDAD) study: a multicentre, prospective cohort analysis.

Objectives: To determine the percentage of patients across Ireland who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED) with an antimicrobial prescription, the indication, classification of infections, and guideline compliance. To identify potential areas for antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) interventions in the ED. Patients and methods: A multicentre, prospective cohort analysis study in EDs across eight hospitals in Ireland. At each site, patients aged 1 month and older who presented to the ED and were discharged directly from the ED were included. A random selection of records of patients discharged from the ED were reviewed until a minimum of 30 records with an infection diagnosis resulting in an antibiotic prescription were obtained per hospital. The number of patient discharges with no antibiotic prescriptions were included to calculate the denominator. The indication, infection classification and guideline compliance data were collected on the 30 prescriptions in the participating hospitals. Results: A total of 2619 patient records were reviewed. Of these, 249 (9.5%) patients were discharged with antimicrobial prescriptions from the ED. Most (158; 63%) were classified as probable bacterial infection, 21 (8%) as probable viral, and 18 (7%) had no documented evidence of infection. Three indications accounted for 73% of antimicrobial prescriptions: skin/soft tissue infection; ear, nose and throat infection; and urinary tract infection. Overall guideline compliance was 64%. Conclusions: Several areas for AMS interventions to optimize antimicrobial prescribing in the ED were identified, including targeted local and national guideline reviews, delayed prescribing, improved point-of-care testing and prescriber and patient education.

A scoping review and behavioural analysis of factors underlying overuse of antimicrobials.

Background: Overuse of antimicrobials is a challenging global issue that contributes to antimicrobial resistance. Despite widespread awareness of the problem among members of the medical community and various attempts to improve prescription practices, existing antimicrobial stewardship programmes are not always effective. In our view, this may reflect limited understanding of factors that influence prescription of antimicrobials as empirical therapy, implying a need to address the psychological mechanisms behind some of the specific behaviours involved. Objectives: To identify factors that influence the antimicrobials prescription as empirical therapy, and to relate these factors to findings from behavioural science. Methods: We conducted a scoping review of the literature on the factors underlying antimicrobial prescription decisions, following the protocol designed using PRISMA guidelines. Results and conclusions: From a final sample of 90 sources, we identified ten factors important in antimicrobial prescription decisions. In the second stage of our analysis, we grouped them into five final categories: (1) nature of the decision, (2) social influences, (3) individual differences, (4) characteristics of the patient, (5) context. We analyse these categories using a behavioural science perspective.

Trends in invasive bacterial diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of prospective surveillance data from 30 countries and territories in the IRIS Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic. METHODS: For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere. FINDINGS: Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization.

The use of complexity theory to inform antimicrobial stewardship: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Complexity theory has previously been used as a conceptual lens in human healthcare research. Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is an inherently complex healthcare intervention; however, the extent to which complexity has been operationalized in AMS is currently unclear. AIM: To investigate if, and how, complexity theory has been used to inform AMS in human healthcare. METHODS: Scoping review methodology. Empirical research or policy specifically referencing complexity in relation to AMS were considered in any human healthcare setting and geographical location. Databases searched were: Cinahl, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, PsycInfo, Scopus and Web of Science from inception to June 2020. Grey literature and other databases searched: EVIPNet, Google, Mednar, Proquest Theses, and the World Health Organization library of national antimicrobial resistance action plans. Non-English language articles were excluded. RESULTS: Of 612 records retrieved, 8 articles were included. Heterogeneity in study design and geographical location were noted. Three interventional studies evaluated AMS in hospital (n = 2) and long-term care (n = 1) settings. Remaining studies were non-interventional and proposed AMS strategies conceptualized through complexity theory. The importance of close engagement between researchers or policy administrators and the target population was emphasized in all studies, as a means of ensuring AMS relevance and success. CONCLUSIONS: There is a paucity of AMS research informed by complexity theory, and no policy documents could be located using complexity as a guiding theory. Mixed methods, informed by complexity theory, is a potentially suitable strategy to develop, implement and evaluate AMS as a complex intervention.