Cost-effectiveness of erosion mitigation to meet water clarity targets in the Manawatu-Whanganui Region of New Zealand.

Soil erosion is a significant environmental issue worldwide. It affects water quality, biodiversity, and land productivity. New Zealand government agencies and regional councils work to mitigate soil erosion through policies, management programmes, and funding for soil conservation projects. Information about cost-effectiveness is crucial for planning, targeting, and implementing erosion mitigation to achieve improvements in sediment-related water quality. While there is a good understanding of the costs of erosion mitigation measures, there is a dearth of literature on their cost-effectiveness in reducing sediment loads and improving water quality at the catchment level. In this study, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of erosion mitigation measures in meeting visual water clarity targets. The analysis utilizes the spatially explicit SedNetNZ erosion process and sediment budget modelling in the Manawatu-Whanganui Region and region-specific mitigation costs. The erosion mitigation measures considered in the analysis include afforestation, bush retirement, riparian retirement, space-planted trees, and gully tree planting. We modelled two scenarios with on-farm erosion mitigation implemented across the region from 2021 to 2100, resulting in a 48% and 60% reduction of total sediment load. We estimate the marginal costs to achieve the visual national bottom line for water clarity, as assessed by the length of waterways that meet the clarity targets. We also estimate the marginal costs of improving average water clarity, which can be linked with non-market valuation studies when conducting a cost-benefit analysis. We find that gully tree planting and space-planted trees are the most cost-effective mitigation measures and that riparian retirement is the least cost-effective. Moreover, cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on current land use and the biophysical features of the landscape. Our estimates can be used in cost-benefit analysis to plan and prioritize soil erosion mitigation at the catchment and regional levels.

How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand, forest management, and carbon policies.

Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2-5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from -0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.

Trade-offs between environmental and economic factors in conversion from exotic pine production to natural regeneration on erosion prone land.

Background: Some of New Zealand's exotic pine (Pinus radiata D.Don) forests were planted for erosion mitigation but cultural, legislative, environmental, and profitability limitations in some parts of the landscape have led to reassessment of their suitability. There is limited information to support landowner decisions on the viability of natural regeneration of native forest post-pine-harvest. Methods: We evaluated scenarios of post-harvest natural regeneration, compared to remaining in pine production, using erosion susceptibility determined from historical occurrence of landslides, gullies and earthflows, biophysical growth modelling of manuka-kanuka (Leptospermum scoparium-Kunzea ericoides (A.Rich) Joy Thomps.) shrubland using the process-based CenW model, and cost-benefit analyses using NZFARM with two land use change scenarios, at two levels of erosion mitigation ± honey profits. Results: In our study area, the Gisborne Region (North Island of New Zealand), ~27% of the land has moderate-very high susceptibility to landslides, 14-22% a high probability of contributing material to waterways, and 19% moderate-very high gully erosion susceptibility. Pines grow 10 times faster than naturally regenerating manuka-kanuka shrubland, but manuka-kanuka is used for honey not wood production. Natural regeneration resulted in losses of $150-250 ha-1 yr-1 compared to the current profitability of pine production. Honey production offset some reduction in pine revenue, but not fully. Thus, the viability of shifting from pines to native forest is highly dependent on landowner impetus and value for non-market ecosystem services (such as cultural and biodiversity values) provided by native forest. Conclusions: A mosaic of land uses within a property may sufficiently offset income losses with other benefits, whereby highly erosion-prone land is shifted from rotational pine forest production to permanent native forest cover with honey production where possible. At the regional scale in Gisborne, the conversion of the most highly susceptible land under production forestry (315-556 ha) to natural regeneration has the potential for wider benefits for soil conservation reducing erosion by 1-2.5 t yr-1 of sediment facilitating achievement of cleaner water aspirations and habitat provision.

Age, values, farming objectives, past management decisions, and future intentions in New Zealand agriculture.

Governments such as New Zealand's seek to raise the value of agricultural exports while concurrently protecting the natural environment. Therefore, farmers are encouraged to increase production while reducing environmental impacts. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between age and farmer values, farming objectives, past management decisions, and future intentions, all of which may impact the environment. Using multivariate regression that controls for gender, education, industry, and region, we find that older farmers are more risk averse, less willing to experiment, less likely to be influenced by social expectations, and more focused on financial performance. Older farmers are less likely to adopt new technologies and to have concrete plans to convert land and to intensify existing land uses. Using an agro-environmental land use model to project changes in farmer demographics, we find that if farm succession and adoption rates follow our estimates, then the natural shift in farmer age and resulting preferences for implementing plans to manage nutrients and soils over time could lead to a reduction in New Zealand's annual total nitrogen, phosphorus, and soil loss by 7%, 9%, and 19%, respectively, between 2015 and 2075. We conclude by noting that encouraging younger individuals to become more active in the farming community is a positive step towards accelerating the adoption of management practices with environmental benefits, but caution that this strategy alone will not meet the full objectives of the country's recent freshwater reforms.

Natural Disasters, Social Protection, and Risk Perceptions.

Natural disasters give rise to loss and damage and may affect subjective expectations about the prevalence and severity of future disasters. These expectations might then in turn shape individuals' investment behaviors, potentially affecting their incomes in subsequent years. As part of an emerging literature on endogenous preferences, economists have begun studying the consequences that exposure to natural disasters have on risk attitudes, perceptions, and behavior. We add to this field by studying the impact of being struck by the December 2012 Cyclone Evan on Fijian households' risk attitudes and subjective expectations about the likelihood and severity of natural disasters over the next 20 years. The randomness of the cyclone's path allows us to estimate the causal effects of exposure on both risk attitudes and risk perceptions. Our results show that being struck by an extreme event substantially changes individuals' risk perceptions as well as their beliefs about the frequency and magnitude of future shocks. However, we find sharply distinct results for the two ethnicities in our sample, indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians; the impact of the natural disaster aligns with previous results in the literature on risk attitudes and risk perceptions for Indo-Fijians, whereas they have little to no impact on those same measures for indigenous Fijians. To provide welfare implications for our results, we compare households' risk perceptions to climate and hydrological models of future disaster risk, and find that both ethnic groups over-infer the risk of future disasters relative to the model predictions. If such distorted beliefs encourage over-investment in preventative measures at the cost of other productive investments, these biases could have negative welfare impacts. Understanding belief biases and how they vary across social contexts may thus help decision makers design policy instruments to reduce such inefficiencies, particularly in the face of climate change.

A national riparian restoration programme in New Zealand: Is it value for money?

National scale initiatives are being attempted in New Zealand (NZ) to meet important environmental goals following land-use intensification over recent decades. Riparian restoration to filter agricultural spillover effects is currently the most widely practised mitigation measure but few studies have investigated the cumulative value of these practices at a national level. We use an applied economic land use model the benefits (GHG emissions, N leaching, P loss, sedimentation and biodiversity gain) and relevant costs (fencing, alternative stock water supplies, restoration planting and opportunity costs) of restoring riparian margins (5-50 m) on all streams in NZ flowing through current primary sector land. Extensive sensitivity analysis reveals that depending on margin width and cost assumptions, riparian margin restoration generates net benefits of between NZ$1.7 billion - $5.2 billion/yr and benefit-cost ratios ranging between 1.4 and 22.4. This suggests that even when not monetising the increase in biodiversity or components of stream ecosystem health and other benefits from planting riparian strips, the benefits to climate and freshwater are significantly greater than the implementation costs of riparian restoration.

A life cycle and product type based estimator for quantifying the carbon stored in wood products.

BACKGROUND: Timber harvesting and industrial wood processing laterally transfer the carbon stored in forest sectors to wood products creating a wood products carbon pool. The carbon stored in wood products is allocated to end-use wood products (e.g., paper, furniture), landfill, and charcoal. Wood products can store substantial amounts of carbon and contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse effects. Therefore, accurate accounts for the size of wood products carbon pools for different regions are essential to estimating the land-atmosphere carbon exchange by using the bottom-up approach of carbon stock change. RESULTS: To quantify the carbon stored in wood products, we developed a state-of-the-art estimator (Wood Products Carbon Storage Estimator, WPsCS Estimator) that includes the wood products disposal, recycling, and waste wood decomposition processes. The wood products carbon pool in this estimator has three subpools: (1) end-use wood products, (2) landfill, and (3) charcoal carbon. In addition, it has a user-friendly interface, which can be used to easily parameterize and calibrate an estimation. To evaluate its performance, we applied this estimator to account for the carbon stored in wood products made from the timber harvested in Maine, USA, and the carbon storage of wood products consumed in the United States. CONCLUSION: The WPsCS Estimator can efficiently and easily quantify the carbon stored in harvested wood products for a given region over a specific period, which was demonstrated with two illustrative examples. In addition, WPsCS Estimator has a user-friendly interface, and all parameters can be easily modified.

Economic approach to assess the forest carbon implications of biomass energy.

There is widespread concern that biomass energy policy that promotes forests as a supply source will cause net carbon emissions. Most of the analyses that have been done to date, however, are biological, ignoring the effects of market adaptations through substitution, net imports, and timber investments. This paper uses a dynamic model of forest and land use management to estimate the impact of United States energy policies that emphasize the utilization of forest biomass on global timber production and carbon stocks over the next 50 years. We show that when market factors are included in the analysis, expanded demand for biomass energy increases timber prices and harvests, but reduces net global carbon emissions because higher wood prices lead to new investments in forest stocks. Estimates are sensitive to assumptions about whether harvest residues and new forestland can be used for biomass energy and the demand for biomass. Restricting biomass energy to being sourced only from roundwood on existing forestland can transform the policy from a net sink to a net source of emissions. These results illustrate the importance of capturing market adjustments and a large geographic scope when measuring the carbon implications of biomass energy policies.

Forests: Carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both?

There is a continuing debate over the role that woody bioenergy plays in climate mitigation. This paper clarifies this controversy and illustrates the impacts of woody biomass demand on forest harvests, prices, timber management investments and intensity, forest area, and the resulting carbon balance under different climate mitigation policies. Increased bioenergy demand increases forest carbon stocks thanks to afforestation activities and more intensive management relative to a no-bioenergy case. Some natural forests, however, are converted to more intensive management, with potential biodiversity losses. Incentivizing both wood-based bioenergy and forest sequestration could increase carbon sequestration and conserve natural forests simultaneously. We conclude that the expanded use of wood for bioenergy will result in net carbon benefits, but an efficient policy also needs to regulate forest carbon sequestration.

Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used to develop improved regional impact assessments for situations where multi-crop rotations better represent predominant agricultural systems.

Estimating impacts of climate change policy on land use: an agent-based modelling approach.

Agriculture is important to New Zealand's economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer's decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.