Rapid spectral variability of a giant flare from a magnetar in NGC 253.

Magnetars are neutron stars with extremely strong magnetic fields (1013 to 1015 gauss)1,2, which episodically emit X-ray bursts approximately 100 milliseconds long and with energies of 1040 to 1041 erg. Occasionally, they also produce extremely bright and energetic giant flares, which begin with a short (roughly 0.2 seconds), intense flash, followed by fainter, longer-lasting emission that is modulated by the spin period of the magnetar3,4 (typically 2 to 12 seconds). Over the past 40 years, only three such flares have been observed in our local group of galaxies3-6, and in all cases the extreme intensity of the flares caused the detectors to saturate. It has been proposed that extragalactic giant flares are probably a subset7-11 of short γ-ray bursts, given that the sensitivity of current instrumentation prevents us from detecting the pulsating tail, whereas the initial bright flash is readily observable out to distances of around 10 to 20 million parsecs. Here we report X-ray and γ-ray observations of the γ-ray burst GRB 200415A, which has a rapid onset, very fast time variability, flat spectra and substantial sub-millisecond spectral evolution. These attributes match well with those expected for a giant flare from an extragalactic magnetar12, given that GRB 200415A is directionally associated13 with the galaxy NGC 253 (roughly 3.5 million parsecs away). The detection of three-megaelectronvolt photons provides evidence for the relativistic motion of the emitting plasma. Radiation from such rapidly moving gas around a rotating magnetar may have generated the rapid spectral evolution that we observe.

Investigation of short-range cedar pollen forecasting.

Pollen forecasting is of increasing interest as a way to help the general public avoid contact with allergy-inducing pollen. It was recently reported that the dynamics underlying pollen concentration series is very similar to that of low-dimensional deterministic chaos, thus opening up new avenues of development in local pollen forecasting. Our analysis of hourly cedar pollen series for two seasons showed evidence of a small degree of determinism underlying the pollen time-series dynamics. However, we could not confirm that our pollen series was generated by a low-dimensional chaotic system. The nearest-neighbor method using local constant prediction applied to hourly pollen forecasting with a 1-h lead time was effective for small to medium pollen variations, but failed to reproduce large and intermittent pollen bursts. The performance of the nearest-neighbor model was significantly improved by applying a nonlinear filter to the source dataset. Standard time-series techniques such as neural networks did not improve upon these results. The difficulty in fully characterizing and accurately forecasting the pollen series was thought to originate in the nonstationarity of the series and in the large and intermittent pollen bursts that were found to have no apparent time structure. Thus the dynamics of hourly pollen series is probably not strongly tied to a low-dimensional chaotic system.

Analysis of cedar pollen time series: no evidence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior.

Much of the current interest in pollen time series analysis is motivated by the possibility that pollen series arise from low-dimensional chaotic systems. If this is the case, short-range prediction using nonlinear modeling is justified and would produce high-quality forecasts that could be useful in providing pollen alerts to allergy sufferers. To date, contradictory reports about the characterization of the dynamics of pollen series can be found in the literature. Pollen series have been alternatively described as featuring and not featuring deterministic chaotic behavior. We showed that the choice of test for detection of deterministic chaos in pollen series is difficult because pollen series exhibit [see text] power spectra. This is a characteristic that is also produced by colored noise series, which mimic deterministic chaos in most tests. We proposed to apply the Ikeguchi-Aihara test to properly detect the presence of deterministic chaos in pollen series. We examined the dynamics of cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) hourly pollen series by means of the Ikeguchi-Aihara test and concluded that these pollen series cannot be described as low-dimensional deterministic chaos. Therefore, the application of low-dimensional chaotic deterministic models to the prediction of short-range pollen concentration will not result in high-accuracy pollen forecasts even though these models may provide useful forecasts for certain applications. We believe that our conclusion can be generalized to pollen series from other wind-pollinated plant species, as wind speed, the forcing parameter of the pollen emission and transport, is best described as a nondeterministic series that originates in the high dimensionality of the atmosphere.

High-performance EUV/soft X-ray ellipsometry system using multilayer mirrors.

A high-performance EUV/soft X-ray ellipsometry system using multilayer mirrors has been developed. A couple of multilayer mirrors were used for the polarizer, and two multilayer mirrors were used for the rotating analyser. The multilayer mirrors were optimized to obtain a medium extinction of about 2000. An extinction ratio of the polarizer up to 10(4) can be achieved by using two multilayer mirrors, and the calculated reflectivity was more than 35%. The calculated error of the optical elements reveals that the error of the polarizer and misalignment optical parts is mainly of the first order, and that of the analyser is of the second order.