Reductions in Reimbursement and Relative Value Units for Interventional Radiology Procedures: Trends from 2011 to 2021 Compared with Those for Other Physician Specialties.

PURPOSE: To compare recent trends in Medicare reimbursement and relative value units (RVUs) for interventional radiology (IR) procedures similar to those performed by non-IR specialties. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Physician Fee Schedule for facility reimbursement and RVU component values for 23 commonly performed single Current Procedural Terminology IR procedures were compared with similar procedures or procedures for similar indications performed by non-IR specialties between 2011 and 2021. RESULTS: The work RVU component decreased in 18 of 23 (78.3%) IR procedures compared with 6 of 23 (26.1%) similar procedures performed by non-IR specialties. The largest change in single RVU component was a 19.2% reduction in practice expense RVU for IR compared with a 16.5% reduction for similar procedures performed by non-IR specialties. CONCLUSIONS: As a specialty, IR experienced a disproportionately greater reduction in reimbursement and RVU valuation for a range of comparable procedures performed by non-IR specialties.

Effects of the MAGIC Guidelines on PICC Placement Volume: Advanced Practice Provider and Physician Trends Among Medicare Beneficiaries From 2010 to 2018.

BACKGROUND. The Michigan Appropriateness Guide for Intravenous Catheters (MAGIC) was published in 2015, recommending more restricted indications for peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) placement, particularly for those placed by physicians. Changes in PICC placement volume since the publication of MAGIC is largely unknown. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article was to study the trends in volume and reimbursement for PICC placement by physicians and advanced practice providers (APPs) for Medicare enrollees from 2010 to 2018 with specific attention to the changes in volume after the publication of MAGIC in 2015. METHODS. Claims from the Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary Master File for the years 2010-2018 were extracted using the Current Procedural Terminology code for PICC placement. Total volume and payment amounts (for the professional component) were analyzed. Trendline slopes for volume per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries before and after the 2015 publication of MAGIC were compared. RESULTS. Volume for PICC placement by physicians and APPs steadily declined from 243,837 in 2010 to 130,361 in 2018 (46.5%). The PICC placement volume decreased sharply after the 2015 publication of the MAGIC guidelines. The slope of the trendline for all providers from 2010 to 2015 was -3.4 compared with -7.3 from 2015 to 2018. The change in slope was more pronounced for radiologists (-3.1 to -5.6) than for APPs (0.0 to -1.1). Professional payment per procedure for radiologists decreased from $78.04 in 2010 to $70.17 in 2018, and reimbursement for APPs proportionally decreased from $65.76 to $60.66 during this time. The relative share of PICC placement by radiologists declined from 77.0% in 2010 to 70.6% in 2018, with a corresponding increase in relative share by APPs from 13.5% to 18.4%. The percentage placed in outpatient procedures increased from 15.1% to 18.2%. CONCLUSION. The volume of PICC placements has steadily decreased since 2010, with a sharper decline between 2015 and 2016 corresponding with the publication of the MAGIC evidence-based guidelines. The role of APPs in PICC placement has increased over this time period. CLINICAL IMPACT. The findings of this study suggest that evidence-based guidelines impact clinical practice on a national level.

Bundled Medicare Payments: Trends in Utilization and Physician Payments for Dialysis Arteriovenous Fistula and Graft Maintenance Procedures From 2010 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE. The purposes of this study were to evaluate the volume of and payments for dialysis arteriovenous fistula and arteriovenous graft maintenance procedures among Medicare beneficiaries from 2010 to 2018 and analyze trends by physician specialty and practice setting after the introduction of bundled Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes in 2017. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Claims from the Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary Master File for the years 2010 through 2018 were extracted by use of the CPT codes for arteriovenous fistula and arteriovenous graft maintenance procedures. Total volumes, payment amounts (professional component), and trends were analyzed by physician specialty and practice setting. RESULTS. From 2010 to 2018, the volume of dialysis circuit maintenance procedures increased 25%, from 308,140 to 385,440 procedures. This increase was driven by increased volumes among nephrologists (30.0%) and surgeons (30.5%) with only a modest increase for interventional radiologists (1.5%). Total physician payments increased 20%, from $333.8 million to $399.5 million. After the introduction of bundled CPT codes in 2017, per-procedure physician payment decreased from $1073 in 2016 to $1025 in 2017 (4.5%). The true decrease in per-procedure payment was underestimated owing to inclusion of higher-cost stenting and embolization procedures in the dialysis-specific codes beginning in 2017. CONCLUSION. The volume of dialysis access maintenance procedures and total physician payments increased from 2010 to 2018 in keeping with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Fistula First Breakthrough Initiative. Introduction of bundled CPT codes in 2017, designed to reduce redundant payments, correlated with a decrease in average per-procedure physician payment.

Percutaneous kidney biopsy trends in the Medicare population by specialty from 2011 to 2021: implications for nephrology training requirements and radiology referral patterns.

PURPOSE: To study trends in volume and reimbursement for percutaneous kidney biopsy (PKB) by physicians and advanced practice providers (APPs) for Medicare enrollees from 2011-2021. METHODS: Claims from the Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Master File (a national Medicare database) for 2011-2021 were extracted using Current Procedural Terminology codes for PKB. Total volumes were compared by provider specialty. Non-facility reimbursement, work Relative Value Unit (RVU) non-facility practice expense RVU, and malpractice RVU were compared. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2021, total volume of PKB by physicians and APPs increased from 30,753 to 34,090 (10.9%), with a peak of 37,882 in 2019 prior to the COVID 19 pandemic. Radiology performed the majority of procedures during the study period. Relative share for radiology increased from 67.6% to 81.1% while the relative share for internal medicine/nephrology decreased from 24.3% to 14.3%, accelerating between 2019 and 2020. Volume and relative share for APPs marginally increased (from 0.9% to 1.2%). Non-facility reimbursement decreased from $578.96 in 2010 to $568.76 in 2021 (1.7%), work RVU decreased from 2.63 to 2.38 (9.5%), non-facility practice expense RVU decreased from 14.10 to 13.71 (2.8%), and malpractice RVU decreased from 0.31 to 0.21 (32.3%). CONCLUSION: Volume and total share of PKB performed by radiology increased over the study period. Conversely, internal medicine/nephrology performed fewer kidney biopsies. Despite the expanding role for APPs in other image-guided procedures, very few PKBs were performed by APPs throughout the study period. Reimbursement and RVU for PKB declined over the study period.

Lower-extremity endovascular interventions for Medicare beneficiaries: comparative effectiveness as a function of provider specialty.

PURPOSE: Lower-extremity endovascular interventions are increasingly being performed by vascular surgeons (VSs) and interventional cardiologists (ICs) in addition to interventional radiologists (IRs). Regardless of specialty, well trained, experienced, and dedicated operators are expected to offer the best outcomes. To examine specialty-specific trends, outcomes of percutaneous lower-extremity revascularizations in Medicare beneficiaries were compared according to physician specialty types providing the service. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medicare Standard Analytical Files that contain longitudinal data of all services (physician, inpatient, outpatient) provided to a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries were studied. All claims for percutaneous angioplasty, atherectomy, and stent implantation of lower-extremity arteries during the years 2005­2007 were extracted, and the following outcomes were assessed: mortality, transfusion, intensive care unit (ICU) use, length of stay, and subsequent revascularization or amputation. Outcomes were compared by using regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, emergency department admission, and comorbid conditions. RESULTS: Most outcomes were significantly worse if the service was provided by vascular surgeons compared with other vascular specialists. The in-hospital mortality rate for procedures performed by VSs was 19% higher than for those performed by others, but this difference was not significant (P =.351). Adjusted average 1-year procedure costs were significantly lower for IRs ($17,640) than for VSs ($19,012) or ICs ($19,096). CONCLUSIONS: Medicare data show that endovascular lower-extremity revascularization by vascular surgeons results in more transfusion and ICU use, longer hospital stay, more repeat revascularization procedures or amputations, and higher costs compared with procedures performed by interventional radiologists.

Percutaneous ablation of renal tumors versus surgical ablation and partial nephrectomy: Medicare trends and reimbursement cost comparison from 2010 to 2018.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to analyze trends in Medicare volume and reimbursement for percutaneous and surgical ablation as well as laparoscopic and open partial nephrectomy for treatment of small renal tumors from 2010 to 2018. METHODS: Claims from the Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary from 2010 to 2018 were extracted using CPT codes for percutaneous and surgical renal ablation and surgical and laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. Facility reimbursement and relative value units (RVUs) were obtained using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services physician fee schedule look-up tool. RESULTS: Volume of percutaneous ablation increased from 2539 to 4571 procedures (80.0%). Specifically, percutaneous cryoablation became the dominant technique, increasing from 1434 to 2981 procedures (107.9%). Overall, volume of partial nephrectomy also increased by 40.4%, driven by an increase in laparoscopic partial nephrectomy from 3227 to 7770 procedures (140.8%) with a decrease in open partial nephrectomy from 3489 to 1661 (- 52.4%). Volume of surgical ablations also decreased 72.7% from 1260 to 344 procedures. In 2018, reimbursement was $358.56 for percutaneous radiofrequency ablation, $481.32 for percutaneous cryoablation, $1216.43 for surgical radiofrequency ablation, $1269.35 for surgical cryoablation, $1381.67 for open partial nephrectomy, and $1552.66 for laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. CONCLUSION: There has been a trend toward minimally invasive techniques for treatment of small renal tumors among Medicare patients. Laparoscopic partial nephrectomy has become the dominant treatment. In the setting of evidence showing comparable outcomes with surgery as well as lower costs to insurers, the volume of percutaneous ablation has also markedly increased.

Growth in Thoracentesis and Paracentesis Performed by Radiology and Advanced Practice Providers: Medicare Volume and Reimbursement Trends From 2012 to 2018.

PURPOSE: To study trends in volume and reimbursement for paracentesis and thoracentesis by physicians and advanced practice providers (APPs) after the introduction of discreet Current Procedural Terminology codes for image guidance. METHODS: Medicare claims for 2012 to 2018 (paracentesis) and 2013 to 2018 (thoracentesis) were extracted using Current Procedural Terminology codes for blind and image-guided paracentesis and thoracentesis. Total volumes were analyzed by provider specialty. Nonfacility reimbursement and relative value units were compared. RESULTS: For blind paracentesis, volume decreased from 17,393 to 12,226 procedures from 2012 to 2018. Conversely, volume of image-guided paracentesis increased from 171,631 to 253,834 procedures. Radiology performed the majority of image-guide paracentesis (83.9% in 2012 and 77.1% in 2018). Volume and relative share for APPs dramatically increased (from 10.2% to 15.8%). For blind thoracentesis, volume decreased from 26,716 to 15,075 procedures from 2013 to 2018. Conversely, volume of image-guided thoracentesis increased from 187,168 to 222,673 procedures. Radiology performed the majority of image-guided thoracentesis (73.6% in 2013 and 66.2% in 2018). Volume and relative share for APPs dramatically increased (from 7.7% to 12.9%). Although reimbursement for both image-guided paracentesis and thoracentesis decreased, their reimbursement remained higher than that of blind paracentesis and thoracentesis throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: A higher percentage of these procedures are being performed using image guidance; radiologists performed a growing number but declining percentage of image-guided paracentesis and thoracentesis. APPs are playing an increasing role, particularly using image guidance. Given decreasing reimbursement for these procedures, APPs can provide a large cost advantage in procedural radiology practices.

Long-term effects of neridronate and its discontinuation in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism.

In patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) not suitable for surgical correction, a skeletal protection with bisphosphonates is considered a reasonable option, but the long-term effects after treatment discontinuation are not well known. Sixty postmenopausal women with PHPT were given 400-600 IU vitamin D(3) daily and 100 mg neridronate IV every 2 months for 2 years with 2 additional years of follow-up without antiresorptive therapies. Bone mineral density (BMD) progressively rose by 6.7 ± 7.6% (SD) and by 2.9 ± 4.5% at the spine and femoral neck, respectively. During follow-up, mean BMD progressively fell, but after 2 years it was still 3.9 ± 5.5% higher than baseline values at the spine. Bone alkaline phosphatase and serum C-telopeptide of type I collagen decreased significantly within 6 months (28 and 49% versus baseline, respectively) and rose to baseline values within 6-12 months during follow-up. Serum PTH significantly rose from baseline during treatment, but it remained significantly higher than baseline during follow-up. The PTH changes were significantly correlated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels. In conclusion, in this study we observed that in patients with mild PHPT treatment with bisphosphonates is associated with the expected changes in bone-turnover markers and that the significant increases of both hip and spine BMD are partially maintained for at least 2 years after treatment discontinuation at the vertebral site. The marked increases in serum PTH levels, particularly in subjects with low 25OHD levels, persist after treatment discontinuation and this raises the suspicion that this might reflect a worsening of PHPT.

Prevalence of abnormal ankle-brachial index among individuals with low or intermediate Framingham Risk Scores.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence of an abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI) among subjects not considered to be at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Population-Based Examinations to Determine Ankle-brachiaL index (PEDAL) Study (2007-2009), a cross-sectional study at 23 U.S. sites, in conjunction with Legs for Life, a national ABI screening program, were analyzed. This study includes data from 822 participants (average age 64.3 years ± 11.6, 69.7% women, 89.7% non-Hispanic white) without known CVD or diabetes, who were screened for peripheral artery disease (PAD) with an ABI and for whom all FRS variables were available. Participants' 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was estimated from the FRS, and three risk categories were defined: low (< 10%), intermediate (10%-19%), and high (≥ 20%). ABI < 0.90 or > 1.4 in either leg was considered abnormal. RESULTS: The prevalence of abnormal ABI was 14.2% (95%confidence interval [CI] 11.9%-16.8%). According to the FRS, 463 (56.3%) participants were at low risk, 212 (25.8%) were at intermediate risk, and 147 (17.9%) were at high risk. Among participants with a low FRS (n = 463; without CVD or diabetes or both) and an intermediate FRS (n = 212; without CVD or diabetes or both), 12.3% and 12.2% had an abnormal ABI. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of abnormal ABI, a CHD equivalent, is high among individuals not identified as high risk by conventional Framingham-based risk assessment.

Percutaneous ablation versus surgical ablation and resection of liver tumors: medicare volume and physician reimbursement trends from 2010 to 2018.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to analyze trends in Medicare volume and physician reimbursement for percutaneous ablation, surgical ablation, and resection of liver tumors from 2010 to 2018. METHODS: Claims from the Medicare Part B PSPSMF for the years 2010 to 2018 were extracted using the CPT codes for percutaneous and surgical ablation of liver tumors and surgical liver resection. Total procedural volume and physician payment were analyzed by procedure and physician specialty. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2018, the volume of percutaneous ablation of liver tumors increased 94.3% from 1630 to 3168 procedures, and the volume of surgical ablations increased 86.2% from 593 to 1104 procedures. In contrast, there was a 16.8% decrease in liver resections from 10,807 to 8994 procedures. Physician reimbursement for percutaneous ablation decreased from $702.41 to $610.11 (- 13.1%). Conversely, reimbursement for resection increased from $849.18 to $1015.06 (19.5%). Reimbursement for surgical ablation also increased from $722.36 to $744.25 (3.0%). In 2018, physician reimbursement for resection and surgical ablation were 66% and 22% more than that for percutaneous ablation. CONCLUSION: An increasing number of patients with liver tumors were treated with percutaneous ablation from 2010 to 2018. Despite higher morbidity, a dwindling set of theoretical advantages over percutaneous ablation, and higher overall costs, the volume of surgical ablation also increased over this time period. The findings of this study suggest that a reevaluation of practice and referral patterns for surgical ablation of liver tumors is warranted in many institutions.

An expanding role for interventional radiology: Medicare trends in fluoroscopic, endoscopic, and surgical enteric tube placement and maintenance from 2010 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to provide an update on trends in physician volume and payments for enteric tube placement and maintenance procedures by method, provider specialty, and practice setting amongst Medicare beneficiaries from 2010 to 2018. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Claims from the Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary Master File (PSPSMF) for the years 2010 to 2018 were extracted using current procedural terminology (CPT) codes for gastrostomy and jejunostomy placement, as well as conversion of gastrostomy to gastrojejunostomy, fluoroscopy guided and non-image guided replacement. Total volumes and provider reimbursement were analyzed by provider specialty and practice setting. RESULTS: Volume of de novo placement of all enteric tubes decreased from 157,123 to 106,549 (-32.2%). While endoscopic placement decreased from 133,658 to 81,171 (-39.3%), the volume of fluoroscopic placement increased from 17,999 to 21,277 (18.2%). Fluoroscopic placement was largely performed by interventional radiology (IR) (91.7% in 2018). Surgical placement decreased from 5466 to 4101 (-25.0%). Volume of fluoroscopic replacement increased from 24,799 to 38,470 (55.1%), while non-image guided replacements decreased from 61,377 to 55,116 (-10.2%). Share of both fluoroscopic and non-image guided replacements by advanced practice providers (APPs) more than doubled over this time period. CONCLUSION: De novo placement of enteric tubes decreased from 2010 to 2018, likely related to increased awareness of the complications and limited benefits in scenarios such as end of life care. In contrast to the diminishing volume for gastroenterologists, there was increased participation by IR in both placement and maintenance procedures under fluoroscopic guidance. SUMMARY STATEMENT: Decreasing placement of enteric tubes suggests shifting attitudes and recommendations around end-of-life care. Increase in role by IR/APPs highlights the need for comprehensive care in these patients.

Trends of utilization and physician payments for vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty procedures by physician specialty and practice setting: 2010 to 2018.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: In 2010, the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons published guidelines strongly recommending against the use of vertebroplasty following the publication of randomized control trials that failed to show significant improvement in pain. Vertebroplasty has remained controversial since those findings. PURPOSE: To study and provide an update on utilization of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty procedures among Medicare beneficiaries by physician specialty and practice setting following publication of recommendations against vertebroplasty in 2010. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: This study uses Medicare Part B Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary Master File (PSPSMF) for the years 2010 to 2018 to determine trends in volume and reimbursement by physician specialty and practice setting. PATIENT SAMPLE: All vertebral augmentation procedures with a physician reimbursement claims approved by Medicare Part B from 2010 to 2018. OUTCOME MEASURES: This study analyzes trends in volume and physician payment of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty procedures by physician specialty for the time period 2010 to 2018. METHODS: Claims from the Medicare Part B PSPSMF for the years 2010 to 2018 were extracted using the Current Procedural Terminology codes for vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Total volumes, payment amounts (professional component), and trends were analyzed by physician specialty. RESULTS: Between 2010 and 2018, the total volume of vertebroplasties decreased by 61.2% (29,995 to 11,654), whereas the volume of kyphoplasties increased modestly by 14.4% (59,691 to 68,294). Radiologists performed an increasing share of both procedures over this time period, from 68.5% to 75.1% for vertebroplasties and 28.9% to 37.1% for kyphoplasties. Total payment for vertebroplasties decreased by 74.3% from $14.8 million in 2010 to $3.8 million in 2018; whereas it increased by 235.3% for kyphoplasty procedures from $26.7 million to $89.7 million. This is driven in large part by a 6,833% increase in office based kyphoplasties which bill at the higher nonfacility rate that incorporates overhead, staff, and equipment. CONCLUSIONS: Previous studies have demonstrated mixed evidence for benefits of vertebroplasty procedures and decreasing volumes over time. Data show continued downtrend in vertebroplasty and increased utilization of kyphoplasty among Medicare beneficiaries. In addition, the growing number of kyphoplasties correlated with a sharp rise in volume and increased reimbursement for office-based procedures. Radiologists have been performing an increasing share of both procedures.

Ankle-brachial index and cardiovascular risk prediction: an analysis of 11,594 individuals with 10-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Low ankle-brachial index (ABI) is associated with increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease events, independent of Framingham risk factors, but its ability to improve risk prediction prospectively has not been examined. METHODS: We conducted post-hoc analysis of data from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC Study), a large prospective cohort study. 11,594 white and African American (24.2%) men and women, aged 45-64 years, with available Framingham Risk Score (FRS) variables and ABIs at baseline, and without known history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus or known peripheral arterial disease at baseline were assessed for hard cardiovascular events (hCVD; defined as heart attack, coronary death or stroke) over median follow-up of 10 years. Hazard ratios, C statistic, and net reclassification indexes were calculated to determine the independent predictive ability of ABI compared with FRS. RESULTS: 659 hCVD events occurred. Standardized ABI was significantly associated with hCVD events but with a relatively small effect on events (hazard ratios of 0.85 per standard deviation (95% CI 0.79-0.91) (p-value<0.0001)). The C statistic of FRS modified with ABI was only modestly improved (0.756-0.758). Net reclassification improvement, an indicator of prospective prediction performance, using an ABI threshold of 0.9 was small and statistically insignificant (0.8%, p=0.50). CONCLUSIONS: Although the ABI adjusted for Framingham risk variables was independently associated with subsequent events in terms of hazard ratios, the independent effect of ABI when adjusted for FRS was small in magnitude, and the FRS performed similarly with or without integration or supplementation with ABI. These findings do not provide strong evidence to support FRS modification to include ABI.

Prevalence of low ankle-brachial index, elevated plasma fibrinogen and CRP across Framingham risk categories: data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004.

OBJECTIVE: 60-80% of heart attacks or coronary-related deaths occur in individuals identified as non-high-risk per the conventional risk assessment algorithms. Abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI), plasma fibrinogen and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) have been shown to be associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, comparable data have not been reported for prevalence of abnormal ABI, fibrinogen and CRP in non-high-risk population. METHODS: We analyzed data from the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of the U.S. population, for 6292 men and women, aged 40 and older, without known CVD or diabetes, with available data on standard CVD risk factors, ABI, fibrinogen and CRP. The main objective was to identify proportions of individuals with abnormal ABI (ABI<0.9 in either leg), elevated fibrinogen (≥ 400 mg/dl), and elevated CRP (>3mg/l), with otherwise low or intermediate (<20%) 10-year Framingham risk score. RESULTS: Overall prevalence of abnormal ABI, fibrinogen, and CRP was 3.6% (95% CI 3.2-4.1%), 27.4% (95% CI 23.9-31.0%) and 38.3% (95% CI 36.5-40.0%) respectively. Among those with ABI data, 91.4% were at <20% FRS, and of these only 2.7% (95% CI 2.3-3.1%, p < 0.0001) had an abnormal ABI. Among those with fibrinogen data, 90.8% were at <20% FRS, and of these 23.6% (95% CI 20.4-26.8%, p < 0.001) had elevated plasma fibrinogen. Among those with CRP data, 91.1% were at <20% FRS, and of these 34.3% (95% CI 32.7-36.0%, p = 0.0012) had an elevated CRP. Overall, 45.0% (95% CI 42.2-47.8%; p < 0.0001) had abnormal ABI, fibrinogen or CRP but low-intermediate risk. CONCLUSION: Abnormal ABI, elevate fibrinogen and CRP are highly prevalent among individuals otherwise at low-intermediate risk. If any or all of them are shown to improve predictive ability of FRS for primary prevention, it would have a significant public health impact.

Performance of current guidelines for coronary heart disease prevention: optimal use of the Framingham-based risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: There is a strong positive association between Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) in a population and incidence of hard coronary heart disease (hCHD) events. Under current Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, individuals with FRS that indicate ≥20% 10-year risk of hCHD are recommended to receive intensive medical risk factor modification. We sought to assess the performance of FRS as a predictive tool when used as in current guidelines. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), including 11,436 and 2569 participants, respectively, without known cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, with available FRS variables were analyzed. The FRS was computed according to standard algorithm. The main outcome was hCHD event defined as MI or coronary death. Using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and other test performance characteristics were determined at various 10-year risk thresholds. ROC curves were plotted. RESULTS: During 10-year follow-up, 822 hCHD events occurred. FRS was significantly associated with hCHD with an AUC of 0.77 and 0.68 for ARIC and CHS, respectively (p-values <0.0001). However, at standard "high risk" cut-off (≥20%), the sensitivity of FRS was only 13% and 25%, respectively and Youden's Index was only 0.10 and 0.15. Lowering the 10-year risk threshold to >5% improved prediction sensitivity to 75% and 83%, with specificity of 66% and 40%, respectively. CONCLUSION: When used dichotomously as in current guidelines, sensitivity of the conventional 20% 10-year risk threshold for subsequent hCHD events is quite low. Since the 20% 10-year risk threshold for intensive medical risk factor therapy is on the steep part of the ROC curve, lowering the threshold results in substantial increases in sensitivity with much smaller losses in specificity, even to a threshold as low as 5%.