Azithromycin for Bacterial Watery Diarrhea: A Reanalysis of the AntiBiotics for Children With Severe Diarrhea (ABCD) Trial Incorporating Molecular Diagnostics.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial pathogens cause substantial diarrhea morbidity and mortality among children living in endemic settings, yet antimicrobial treatment is only recommended for dysentery or suspected cholera. METHODS: AntiBiotics for Children with severe Diarrhea was a 7-country, placebo-controlled, double-blind efficacy trial of azithromycin in children 2-23 months of age with watery diarrhea accompanied by dehydration or malnutrition. We tested fecal samples for enteric pathogens utilizing quantitative polymerase chain reaction to identify likely and possible bacterial etiologies and employed pathogen-specific cutoffs based on genomic target quantity in previous case-control diarrhea etiology studies to identify likely and possible bacterial etiologies. RESULTS: Among 6692 children, the leading likely etiologies were rotavirus (21.1%), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli encoding heat-stable toxin (13.3%), Shigella (12.6%), and Cryptosporidium (9.6%). More than one-quarter (1894 [28.3%]) had a likely and 1153 (17.3%) a possible bacterial etiology. Day 3 diarrhea was less common in those randomized to azithromycin versus placebo among children with a likely bacterial etiology (risk difference [RD]likely, -11.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, -15.6 to -7.6]) and possible bacterial etiology (RDpossible, -8.7 [95% CI, -13.0 to -4.4]) but not in other children (RDunlikely, -0.3% [95% CI, -2.9% to 2.3%]). A similar association was observed for 90-day hospitalization or death (RDlikely, -3.1 [95% CI, -5.3 to -1.0]; RDpossible, -2.3 [95% CI, -4.5 to -.01]; RDunlikely, -0.6 [95% CI, -1.9 to .6]). The magnitude of risk differences was similar among specific likely bacterial etiologies, including Shigella. CONCLUSIONS: Acute watery diarrhea confirmed or presumed to be of bacterial etiology may benefit from azithromycin treatment. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03130114.

Early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes in three low middle-income countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Hyperglycemia during pregnancy leads to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Thus, strict monitoring of blood glucose levels is warranted. This study aims to determine the association of early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels with the development of pregnancy complications in women from three countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of the AMANHI (Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement) cohort, which enrolled 10,001 pregnant women between May 2014 and June 2018 across Sylhet-Bangladesh, Karachi-Pakistan, and Pemba Island-Tanzania. HbA1c assays were performed at enrollment (8 to < 20 gestational weeks), and epidemiological data were collected during 2-3 monthly household visits. The women were followed-up till the postpartum period to determine the pregnancy outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between elevated HbA1c levels and adverse events while controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 9,510 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The mean HbA1c level at enrollment was found to be the highest in Bangladesh (5.31 ± 0.37), followed by Tanzania (5.22 ± 0.49) and then Pakistan (5.07 ± 0.58). We report 339 stillbirths and 9,039 live births. Among the live births were 892 preterm births, 892 deliveries via cesarean section, and 532 LGA babies. In the multivariate pooled analysis, maternal HbA1c levels of ≥ 6.5 were associated with increased risks of stillbirths (aRR = 6.3, 95% CI = 3.4,11.6); preterm births (aRR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.8-6.7); and Large for Gestational Age (aRR = 5.5, 95% CI = 2.9-10.6). CONCLUSION: Maternal HbA1c level is an independent risk factor for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes such as stillbirth, preterm birth, and LGA among women in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These groups may benefit from early interventional strategies.

Does the implementation of revised American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines improve the identification of stillbirths and preterm births in hypertensive pregnancies: a population-based cohort study from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide. The classification and treatment of hypertension in pregnancy remain debated. We aim to compare the effectiveness of the revised 2017 ACC/AHA blood pressure threshold in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) biorepository study, including 10,001 pregnant women from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Blood pressure was measured using validated devices at different antenatal care visits. The blood pressure readings were categorized as: normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (sBP) < 120 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (dBP) < 80 mm Hg), elevated blood pressure (sBP 120-129 and dBP < 80), stage 1 hypertension (sBP 130-139 or dBP 80-89, or both), and stage 2 hypertension (sBP ≥ 140 or dBP ≥ 90, or both). We estimated risk ratios for stillbirths and preterm births, as well as diagnostic test properties of both the pre-existing JNC7 (≥ 140/90) and revised ACC/AHA (≥ 130/80) thresholds using normal blood pressure as reference group. RESULTS: From May 2014 to June 2018, blood pressure readings were available for 9,448 women (2,894 in Bangladesh, 2,303 in Pakistan, and 4,251 in Tanzania). We observed normal blood pressure in 70%, elevated blood pressure in 12.4%, stage 1 hypertension in 15.2%, and stage 2 hypertension in 2.5% of the pregnant women respectively. Out of these, 310 stillbirths and 9,109 live births were recorded, with 887 preterm births. Using the ACC/AHA criteria, the stage 1 hypertension cut-off revealed 15.3% additional hypertension diagnoses as compared to JNC7 criteria. ACC/AHA defined hypertension was significantly associated with stillbirths (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.3). The JNC 7 hypertension cut-off of ≥ 140/90 was significantly associated with a higher risk of preterm births (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2, 2.2) and stillbirths (RR 3.6, 95% CI 2.5, 5.3). Both criteria demonstrated low sensitivities (8.4 for JNC-7 and 28.1 for ACC/AHA) and positive predictive values (11.0 for JNC7 and 5.2 for ACC/AHA) in predicting adverse outcomes. CONCLUSION: The ACC/AHA criteria (≥ 130/80) identified additional cases of hypertension but had limited predictive accuracy for stillbirths and preterm births, highlighting the ongoing need for improved criteria in managing pregnancy-related hypertension.

Risk factors for moderate acute malnutrition among children with acute diarrhoea in India and Tanzania: a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) affects over 30 million children aged < 5 years worldwide. MAM may confer a greater risk of developing severe malnutrition and even mortality in children. Assessing risk factors for MAM may allow for earlier recognition of children at risk of deleterious health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors associated with the prevalence and development of MAM among children aged 6 to 59 months with acute diarrhoea who received treatment with oral rehydration solution and zinc supplementation. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a randomized, dose-finding trial of zinc among children with acute diarrhoea in India and Tanzania. We used regression models to assess risk factors for prevalent MAM at the start of diarrhoea treatment and to identify risk factors associated with the development of MAM at 60 days. MAM was defined as weight for length (or height) Z score ≤-2 and > -3 or mid-upper arm circumference < 12.5 and ≥ 11.5 cm. RESULTS: A total of 4,500 children were enrolled; 593 (13.2%) had MAM at the baseline. MAM at baseline was significantly less common among children in Tanzania than in India (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30, 0.44, P < 0.001), in children aged 24- < 60 months versus 6- < 12 months (aRR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.38, 0.56, P < 0.001), and in families with household wealth index higher than the median (aRR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.92, P = 0.002). Sixty days after outpatient treatment and follow-up, 87 (2.5%) children developed MAM. When compared to children aged 6- < 12 months, children aged 24- < 60 months had a 52% lower risk of developing MAM. Every one unit increase in weight for length (or height) Z score at enrolment was associated with a 93% lower risk of developing MAM during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with diarrhoea, younger children and those from households with lower wealth were at greater risk of MAM. These children may benefit from targeted interventions focusing on feeding (targeted nutrition support for at-risk households) and follow up in order to reduce the occurrence of MAM and its consequences.

Lower-Dose Zinc for Childhood Diarrhea - A Randomized, Multicenter Trial.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends 20 mg of zinc per day for 10 to 14 days for children with acute diarrhea; in previous trials, this dosage decreased diarrhea but increased vomiting. METHODS: We randomly assigned 4500 children in India and Tanzania who were 6 to 59 months of age and had acute diarrhea to receive 5 mg, 10 mg, or 20 mg of zinc sulfate for 14 days. The three primary outcomes were a diarrhea duration of more than 5 days and the number of stools (assessed in a noninferiority analysis) and the occurrence of vomiting (assessed in a superiority analysis) within 30 minutes after zinc administration. RESULTS: The percentage of children with diarrhea for more than 5 days was 6.5% in the 20-mg group, 7.7% in the 10-mg group, and 7.2% in the 5-mg group. The difference between the 20-mg and 10-mg groups was 1.2 percentage points (upper boundary of the 98.75% confidence interval [CI], 3.3), and that between the 20-mg and 5-mg groups was 0.7 percentage points (upper boundary of the 98.75% CI, 2.8), both of which were below the noninferiority margin of 4 percentage points. The mean number of diarrheal stools was 10.7 in the 20-mg group, 10.9 in the 10-mg group, and 10.8 in 5-mg group. The difference between the 20-mg and 10-mg groups was 0.3 stools (upper boundary of the 98.75% CI, 1.0), and that between the 20-mg and 5-mg groups was 0.1 stools (upper boundary of the 98.75% CI, 0.8), both of which were below the noninferiority margin (2 stools). Vomiting within 30 minutes after administration occurred in 19.3%, 15.6%, and 13.7% of the patients in the 20-mg, 10-mg, and 5-mg groups, respectively; the risk was significantly lower in the 10-mg group than in the 20-mg group (relative risk, 0.81; 97.5% CI, 0.67 to 0.96) and in the 5-mg group than in the 20-mg group (relative risk, 0.71; 97.5% CI, 0.59 to 0.86). Lower doses were also associated with less vomiting beyond 30 minutes after administration. CONCLUSIONS: Lower doses of zinc had noninferior efficacy for the treatment of diarrhea in children and were associated with less vomiting than the standard 20-mg dose. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ZTDT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03078842.).

Direct maternal morbidity and the risk of pregnancy-related deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: A population-based prospective cohort study in 8 countries.

BACKGROUND: Maternal morbidity occurs several times more frequently than mortality, yet data on morbidity burden and its effect on maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes are limited in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to generate prospective, reliable population-based data on the burden of major direct maternal morbidities in the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods and its association with maternal, foetal, and neonatal death in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective cohort study, conducted in 9 research sites in 8 countries of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) to identify pregnancies. Pregnant women who gave consent were include in the study and followed up to birth and 42 days postpartum from 2012 to 2015. We used standard operating procedures, data collection tools, and training to harmonise study implementation across sites. Three home visits during pregnancy and 2 home visits after birth were conducted to collect maternal morbidity information and maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes. We measured blood pressure and proteinuria to define hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and woman's self-report to identify obstetric haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection, and prolonged or obstructed labour. Enrolled women whose pregnancy lasted at least 28 weeks or those who died during pregnancy were included in the analysis. We used meta-analysis to combine site-specific estimates of burden, and regression analysis combining all data from all sites to examine associations between the maternal morbidities and adverse outcomes. Among approximately 735,000 women of reproductive age in the study population, and 133,238 pregnancies during the study period, only 1.6% refused consent. Of these, 114,927 pregnancies had morbidity data collected at least once in both antenatal and in postnatal period, and 114,050 of them were included in the analysis. Overall, 32.7% of included pregnancies had at least one major direct maternal morbidity; South Asia had almost double the burden compared to sub-Saharan Africa (43.9%, 95% CI 27.8% to 60.0% in South Asia; 23.7%, 95% CI 19.8% to 27.6% in sub-Saharan Africa). Antepartum haemorrhage was reported in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.9%) pregnancies and severe postpartum in 1.7% (95% CI 1.2% to 2.2%) pregnancies. Preeclampsia or eclampsia was reported in 1.4% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.0%) pregnancies, and gestational hypertension alone was reported in 7.4% (95% CI 4.6% to 10.1%) pregnancies. Prolonged or obstructed labour was reported in about 11.1% (95% CI 5.4% to 16.8%) pregnancies. Clinical features of late third trimester antepartum infection were present in 9.1% (95% CI 5.6% to 12.6%) pregnancies and those of postpartum infection in 8.6% (95% CI 4.4% to 12.8%) pregnancies. There were 187 pregnancy-related deaths per 100,000 births, 27 stillbirths per 1,000 births, and 28 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births with variation by country and region. Direct maternal morbidities were associated with each of these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that health programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia must intensify their efforts to identify and treat maternal morbidities, which affected about one-third of all pregnancies and to prevent associated maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is not a clinical trial.

Machine learning guided postnatal gestational age assessment using new-born screening metabolomic data in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Babies born early and/or small for gestational age in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute substantially to global neonatal and infant mortality. Tracking this metric is critical at a population level for informed policy, advocacy, resources allocation and program evaluation and at an individual level for targeted care. Early prenatal ultrasound examination is not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is estimated using new-born assessment, last menstrual period (LMP) recalls and birth weight, which are unreliable. Algorithms in developed settings, using metabolic screen data, provided GA estimates within 1-2 weeks of ultrasonography-based GA. We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms to improve accuracy and applicability of this approach to LMICs settings. METHODS: This study uses data from AMANHI-ACT, a prospective pregnancy cohorts in Asia and Africa where early pregnancy ultrasonography estimated GA and birth weight are available and metabolite screening data in a subset of 1318 new-borns were also available. We utilized this opportunity to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest Regressor was used where data was randomly split into model-building and model-testing dataset. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate performance. Bootstrap procedures were used to estimate confidence intervals (CI) for RMSE and MAE. For pre-term birth identification ROC analysis with bootstrap and exact estimation of CI for area under curve (AUC) were performed. RESULTS: Overall model estimated GA had MAE of 5.2 days (95% CI 4.6-6.8), which was similar to performance in SGA, MAE 5.3 days (95% CI 4.6-6.2). GA was correctly estimated to within 1 week for 85.21% (95% CI 72.31-94.65). For preterm birth classification, AUC in ROC analysis was 98.1% (95% CI 96.0-99.0; p < 0.001). This model performed better than Iowa regression, AUC Difference 14.4% (95% CI 5-23.7; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms and models applied to metabolomic gestational age dating offer a ladder of opportunity for providing accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMICs settings. These findings also point to an opportunity for investigation of region-specific models, more focused feasible analyte models, and broad untargeted metabolome investigation.

Efficacy of high zinc biofortified wheat in improvement of micronutrient status, and prevention of morbidity among preschool children and women - a double masked, randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Biofortification of staple food crops with zinc (Zn) can be one of the cost-effective and sustainable strategies to combat zinc deficiency and prevent morbidity among the target population. Agronomic approaches such as application of Zn fertilizers to soil and/or foliar spray seem to be a practical tool for Zn biofortification of wheat. However, there is a need to evaluate its efficacy from randomized controlled trials. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of zinc biofortified wheat flour on zinc status and its impact on morbidity among children aged 4-6 years and non-pregnant non lactating woman of child bearing age (WCBA) in Delhi, India. METHODS: In a community based, double-masked randomized controlled trial, 6005 participants (WCBA and child pairs) were enrolled and randomly allocated to receive either high zinc biofortified wheat flour (HZn, 30 ppm zinc daily) or low zinc biofortified wheat flour (LZn, 20 ppm zinc daily) for 6 months (WCBA @ 360 g/day and children @ 120 g/day). Baseline and endline blood samples were obtained for assessing hematological markers; zinc status and data on compliance and morbidity were collected. RESULTS: Compliance rates were high; ~ 88% of the WCBAs in both the groups consumed 50% or more of recommended amount of biofortfied wheat flour during the follow up. Similarly 86.9% children in HZn and 87.5% in LZn consumed 50% or more of recommended wheat flour intake. There was no significant difference in mean zinc levels between the groups at end study. This observation might be due to a marginal difference in zinc content (10 ppm) between the HZn and LZn wheat flour, and a short intervention period. However a positive impact of bio-fortification on self-reported morbidity was observed. Compared to children in LZn group, children in HZn group had 17% (95% CI: 6 to 31%, p = 0.05) and 40% (95% CI: 16 to 57%; p = 0.0019) reduction in days with pneumonia and vomiting respectively. WCBA in the HZn group also showed a statistically significant 9% fewer days with fever compared to LZn group. CONCLUSIONS: Biofortified wheat flour had a good compliance among children and WCBAs. Significant improvement on some of the self-reported morbidity indicators suggests that evaluating longer-term effects of biofortification with higher grain zinc content would be more appropriate. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/ , CTRI/2014/04/004527, Registered April 7, 2014.

Neonatal mortality within 24 hours of birth in six low- and lower-middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate neonatal mortality, particularly within 24 hours of birth, in six low- and lower-middle-income countries. METHODS: We analysed epidemiological data on a total of 149 570 live births collected between 2007 and 2013 in six prospective randomized trials and a cohort study from predominantly rural areas of Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia. The neonatal mortality rate and mortality within 24 hours of birth were estimated for all countries and mortality within 6 hours was estimated for four countries with available data. The findings were compared with published model-based estimates of neonatal mortality. FINDINGS: Overall, the neonatal mortality rate observed at study sites in the six countries was 30.5 per 1000 live births (range: 13.6 in Zambia to 47.4 in Pakistan). Mortality within 24 hours was 14.1 per 1000 live births overall (range: 5.1 in Zambia to 20.1 in India) and 46.3% of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours (range: 36.2% in Pakistan to 65.5% in the United Republic of Tanzania). Mortality in the first 6 hours was 8.3 per 1000 live births, i.e. 31.9% of neonatal mortality. CONCLUSION: Neonatal mortality within 24 hours of birth in predominantly rural areas of six low- and lower-middle-income countries was higher than model-based estimates for these countries. A little under half of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours of birth and around one third occurred within 6 hours. Implementation of high-quality, effective obstetric and early newborn care should be a priority in these settings.

Effect of 4 % chlorhexidine on cord colonization among hospital and community births in India: a randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Infections are the single most important cause of neonatal mortality in developing countries. Results from trials in Asia evaluating the effect of chlorhexidine on neonatal mortality have been encouraging but limited data are available on the impact of cord cleansing on bacterial colonization. Further, no data from facility deliveries and impact with time is available. This pilot study was aimed to evaluate the impact of 4 % commercially prepared chlorhexidine on cord colonization and density of colonization among newborns in India. METHODS: Three hundred twenty-six newborns (hospital-247; community-79) were enrolled within 24 h of birth and randomly assigned to one of three groups: chlorhexidine, placebo or dry cord care. Umbilical swabs were collected at baseline, 2- and 48- hours after intervention application. RESULTS: At baseline, growth positivity (any bacterial growth) was 20 % (50 of 247 swabs) and 81 % (64 of 79 swabs) among hospital and community born neonates, respectively. In both settings, chlorhexidine compared to placebo and dry cord care, reduced colonization following 2- and 48-hour post application. Chlorhexidine significantly reduced 48-hour post application colony counts in comparison to placebo [Hospital: mean difference = -1.01; 95 % CI: -1.72, -0.30 Community: mean difference = -1.76; 95 % CI: -2.60, -0.93] and dry cord care [Hospital: mean difference = -1.16; 95 % CI: -1.93, -0.39 Community: mean difference = -2.23; 95 % CI: -3.18, -1.29]. Differences were similar for gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: Cord cleansing with 4 % chlorhexidine soon after birth reduced colonization as well as density of colonization significantly; however this pilot study does not address the impact of chlorhexidine on mortality. The control preparation neither increased or decreased colonization. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01528852, Registered February 7, 2012.

A shortened verbal autopsy instrument for use in routine mortality surveillance systems.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is recognized as the only feasible alternative to comprehensive medical certification of deaths in settings with no or unreliable vital registration systems. However, a barrier to its use by national registration systems has been the amount of time and cost needed for data collection. Therefore, a short VA instrument (VAI) is needed. In this paper we describe a shortened version of the VAI developed for the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Gold Standard Verbal Autopsy Validation Study using a systematic approach. METHODS: We used data from the PHMRC validation study. Using the Tariff 2.0 method, we first established a rank order of individual questions in the PHMRC VAI according to their importance in predicting causes of death. Second, we reduced the size of the instrument by dropping questions in reverse order of their importance. We assessed the predictive performance of the instrument as questions were removed at the individual level by calculating chance-corrected concordance and at the population level with cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy. Finally, the optimum size of the shortened instrument was determined using a first derivative analysis of the decline in performance as the size of the VA instrument decreased for adults, children, and neonates. RESULTS: The full PHMRC VAI had 183, 127, and 149 questions for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shortened instrument developed had 109, 69, and 67 questions, respectively, representing a decrease in the total number of questions of 40-55%. The shortened instrument, with text, showed non-significant declines in CSMF accuracy from the full instrument with text of 0.4%, 0.0%, and 0.6% for the adult, child, and neonatal modules, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a shortened VAI using a systematic approach, and assessed its performance when administered using hand-held electronic tablets and analyzed using Tariff 2.0. The length of a VA questionnaire was shortened by almost 50% without a significant drop in performance. The shortened VAI developed reduces the burden of time and resources required for data collection and analysis of cause of death data in civil registration systems.

Improving performance of the Tariff Method for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies.

BACKGROUND: Reliable data on the distribution of causes of death (COD) in a population are fundamental to good public health practice. In the absence of comprehensive medical certification of deaths, the only feasible way to collect essential mortality data is verbal autopsy (VA). The Tariff Method was developed by the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) to ascertain COD from VA information. Given its potential for improving information about COD, there is interest in refining the method. We describe the further development of the Tariff Method. METHODS: This study uses data from the PHMRC and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia studies. Gold standard clinical diagnostic criteria for hospital deaths were specified for a target cause list. VAs were collected from families using the PHMRC verbal autopsy instrument including health care experience (HCE). The original Tariff Method (Tariff 1.0) was trained using the validated PHMRC database for which VAs had been collected for deaths with hospital records fulfilling the gold standard criteria (validated VAs). In this study, the performance of Tariff 1.0 was tested using VAs from household surveys (community VAs) collected for the PHMRC and NHMRC studies. We then corrected the model to account for the previous observed biases of the model, and Tariff 2.0 was developed. The performance of Tariff 2.0 was measured at individual and population levels using the validated PHMRC database. RESULTS: For median chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and mean cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and for each of three modules with and without HCE, Tariff 2.0 performs significantly better than the Tariff 1.0, especially in children and neonates. Improvement in CSMF accuracy with HCE was 2.5%, 7.4%, and 14.9% for adults, children, and neonates, respectively, and for median CCC with HCE it was 6.0%, 13.5%, and 21.2%, respectively. Similar levels of improvement are seen in analyses without HCE. CONCLUSIONS: Tariff 2.0 addresses the main shortcomings of the application of the Tariff Method to analyze data from VAs in community settings. It provides an estimation of COD from VAs with better performance at the individual and population level than the previous version of this method, and it is publicly available for use.

Trial of improved practices approach to explore the acceptability and feasibility of different modes of chlorhexidine application for neonatal cord care in Pemba, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Infections are responsible for 30-40 % of 4 million neonatal deaths annually. Use of chlorhexidine (CHX), a broad-spectrum topical antiseptic with strong residual activity, for umbilical cord cleansing has been shown to reduce infections during the neonatal period. However, the challenge remains with regard to selection of best mode of CHX delivery. As a part of formative research, we undertook a qualitative study in Pemba Island as a pilot to explore the attitudes; beliefs and practices of the community and health workers related to delivery, newborn and cord care. During the second phase of formative research, we used Trials of Improved Practices (TIPs) methodology to explore the acceptance and impediments, for the three possible modes of chlorhexidine application- 100 ml bottle with cotton swab, 10 ml single use dropper bottle and 3 g single application squeeze tube containing gel, as an umbilical cord care intervention. METHODS: In this pilot study, 204 mother-newborn pairs were enrolled from hospital and community setting in Pemba, Tanzania using a randomized three period crossover design. Mothers/guardians, Trained Birth Attendants (TBA)/ medical staff and community health workers (CHWs) were requested to try three different modes of CHX application for cord cleaning. All participants were demonstrated the method of cord cleaning using all three modes of delivery; each delivery mode was used for 3 days and an interview was conducted on day 10 to collect summary of their experience. Acceptance and preference scores were calculated based on feedback from the participants. RESULTS: Of 204 mother-newborn pairs, 27 were lost to follow up. 177 mothers performed the intervention and applied CHX to the newborn cord for all 9 days. Mothers rated 10 ml dropper bottle (49.7 %) as most convenient in terms of ease and application. They selected 10 ml dropper bottle (44.6 %) as their first choice; gel tube (33.9 %) and 100 ml bottle (21.5 %) as their second and third choice. TBAs, medical staff and CHWs also preferred 10 ml dropper bottle (43.3 %) over 100 ml bottle (12.9 %) and gel (38.8 %). CONCLUSIONS: Overall acceptability of CHX application for cord cleansing was high. 10 ml single use dropper bottle was given highest preference for CHX application. An understanding of the attitudes, beliefs and cultural practices in the community and selection of the most acceptable mode of CHX delivery is essential to the design and implementation of the intervention trials examining the efficacy of CHX cord care in reducing neonatal mortality and subsequent implementation in the programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01528852 Registered February 3, 2012.

Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. METHODS: We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. RESULTS: Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. CONCLUSIONS: Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.

Delivery, immediate newborn and cord care practices in Pemba Tanzania: a qualitative study of community, hospital staff and community level care providers for knowledge, attitudes, belief systems and practices.

BACKGROUND: Deaths during the neonatal period account for almost two-thirds of all deaths in the first year of life and 40 percent of deaths before the age of five. Most of these deaths could be prevented through proven cost-effective interventions. Although there are some recent data from sub-Saharan Africa, but there is paucity of qualitative data from Zanzibar and cord care practices data from most of East Africa. We undertook a qualitative study in Pemba Island as a pilot to explore the attitudes, beliefs and practices of the community and health workers related to delivery, newborn and cord care with the potential to inform the main chlorhexidine (CHX) trial. METHODS: 80 in-depth interviews (IDI) and 11 focus group discussions (FGD) involving mothers, grandmothers, fathers, traditional birth attendants and other health service providers from the community were undertaken. All IDIs and FGDs were audio taped, transcribed and analyzed using ATLAS ti 6.2. RESULTS: Poor transportation, cost of delivery at hospitals, overcrowding and ill treatment by hospital staff are some of the obstacles for achieving higher institutional delivery. TBAs and health professionals understand the need of using sterilized equipments to reduce risk of infection to both mothers and their babies during delivery. Despite this knowledge, use of gloves during delivery and hand washing before delivery were seldom reported. Early initiation of breastfeeding and feeding colostrum was almost universal. Hospital personnel and trained TBAs understood the importance of keeping babies warm after birth and delayed baby's first bath. The importance of cord care was well recognized in the community. Nearly all TBAs counseled the mothers to protect the cord from dust, flies and mosquitoes or any other kind of infections by covering it with cloth. There was consensus among respondents that CHX liquid cord cleansing could be successfully implemented in the community with appropriate education and awareness. CONCLUSION: The willingness of community in accepting a CHX cord care practice was very high; the only requirement was that a MCH worker needs to do and demonstrate the use to the mother. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01528852.

Efficiency of red cell distribution width in identification of children aged 1-3 years with iron deficiency anemia against traditional hematological markers.

BACKGROUND: Current strategy to identify iron deficiency anemia relies on markers involving high costs. Reports have suggested red cell distribution width (RDW) as a potential screening test for identifying iron deficiency anemia (IDA) but studies in pediatric populations are lacking. Our study elucidates the discriminative ability of RDW for detecting IDA among young children. METHODS: 2091 blood reports of children aged 1-3 years from an urban low socio-economic population of Delhi were analyzed to evaluate the sensitivity of RDW in discriminating IDA using receiver's operating characteristic curve. Hemoglobin and RDW were estimated using coulter, zinc protoporphyrin with AVIV fluorometer and serum ferritin by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: A total of 1026 samples were classified as iron deficient anemia using gold standard. As a marker of overall efficiency, area under the curve for RDW was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81- 0.84; p < 0.001). Sensitivity of RDW at cut-off of 18% to detect iron deficiency anemia was 76.5% and specificity 73.1% yielding a positive predictive value of 73% and negative predictive value of 76%. At a cut-off of RDW 16.4%, the sensitivity was 94% and at a cut-off of 21%, the specificity was 95%. Combination of hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL and RDW >15%, yielded a sensitivity of 99% and specificity of 90%. These data suggest that simple coulter analysis estimating hemoglobin and RDW can be used for identification of children in need for iron therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In India and similar settings, RDW >15% with hemoglobin ≤ 10.0 g/dL identifies iron deficient anemic children without need for iron status markers which could help reduce cost of management especially in poor settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00255385.

Compliance with home-based fortification strategies for delivery of iron and zinc: its effect on haematological and growth markers among 6-24 months old children in north India.

Compliance is a key component in successful implementation of the delivery of micronutrients among children. The present study evaluates the compliance with two home-based food fortification strategies (fortified complementary food or sprinkle) for providing iron and zinc among children aged 6-24 months. A total of 292 children were randomly allocated to receive either rice-based fortified complementary food and nutrition education (Cf = 101), sprinkle and nutrition education (Mp = 97), or nutrition education alone as control (Ed = 94). All the enrolled children were breastfed at the beginning of the study and were advised to continue breastfeeding. Biweekly information on compliance and anthropometry was collected. Complete haemogram estimation was conducted at baseline and end of the study. Compliance with the fortified complementary food was higher compared to sprinkle (Cf = 81%, Mp = 64% child-days). Consumption of the fortified complementary food for 6 months resulted in a significant increase in mean haemoglobin in the intervention group compared to control group (Cf 1.29 +/- 1.6 g/dL; Ed 0.23 +/- 1.3 g/dL; p < 0.001). Our results showed that fortified complementary food had higher compliance than sprinkle and is a suitable delivery mechanism for iron and zinc in preschool children.

Clinical and nutritional correlates of bacterial diarrhoea aetiology in young children: a secondary cross-sectional analysis of the ABCD trial.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the association between nutritional and clinical characteristics and quantitative PCR (qPCR)-diagnosis of bacterial diarrhoea in a multicentre cohort of children under 2 years of age with moderate to severe diarrhoea (MSD). DESIGN: A secondary cross-sectional analysis of baseline data collected from the AntiBiotics for Children with Diarrhoea trial (NCT03130114). PATIENTS: Children with MSD (defined as >3 loose stools within 24 hours and presenting with at least one of the following: some/severe dehydration, moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) or severe stunting) enrolled in the ABCD trial and collected stool sample. STUDY PERIOD: June 2017-July 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Likely bacterial aetiology of diarrhoea. Secondary outcomes included specific diarrhoea aetiology. RESULTS: A total of 6692 children with MSD had qPCR results available and 28% had likely bacterial diarrhoea aetiology. Compared with children with severe stunting, children with MAM (adjusted OR (aOR) (95% CI) 1.56 (1.18 to 2.08)), some/severe dehydration (aOR (95% CI) 1.66 (1.25 to 2.22)) or both (aOR (95% CI) 2.21 (1.61 to 3.06)), had higher odds of having likely bacterial diarrhoea aetiology. Similar trends were noted for stable toxin-enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli aetiology. Clinical correlates including fever and prolonged duration of diarrhoea were not associated with likely bacterial aetiology; children with more than six stools in the previous 24 hours had higher odds of likely bacterial diarrhoea (aOR (95% CI) 1.20 (1.05 to 1.36)) compared with those with fewer stools. CONCLUSION: The presence of MAM, dehydration or high stool frequency may be helpful in identifying children with MSD who might benefit from antibiotics.

Association of maternal prenatal copper concentration with gestational duration and preterm birth: a multicountry meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Copper (Cu), an essential trace mineral regulating multiple actions of inflammation and oxidative stress, has been implicated in risk for preterm birth (PTB). OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the association of maternal Cu concentration during pregnancy with PTB risk and gestational duration in a large multicohort study including diverse populations. METHODS: Maternal plasma or serum samples of 10,449 singleton live births were obtained from 18 geographically diverse study cohorts. Maternal Cu concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The associations of maternal Cu with PTB and gestational duration were analyzed using logistic and linear regressions for each cohort. The estimates were then combined using meta-analysis. Associations between maternal Cu and acute-phase reactants (APRs) and infection status were analyzed in 1239 samples from the Malawi cohort. RESULTS: The maternal prenatal Cu concentration in our study samples followed normal distribution with mean of 1.92 µg/mL and standard deviation of 0.43 µg/mL, and Cu concentrations increased with gestational age up to 20 wk. The random-effect meta-analysis across 18 cohorts revealed that 1 µg/mL increase in maternal Cu concentration was associated with higher risk of PTB with odds ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 1.57) and shorter gestational duration of 1.64 d (95% CI: 0.56, 2.73). In the Malawi cohort, higher maternal Cu concentration, concentrations of multiple APRs, and infections (malaria and HIV) were correlated and associated with greater risk of PTB and shorter gestational duration. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports robust negative association between maternal Cu and gestational duration and positive association with risk for PTB. Cu concentration was strongly correlated with APRs and infection status suggesting its potential role in inflammation, a pathway implicated in the mechanisms of PTB. Therefore, maternal Cu could be used as potential marker of integrated inflammatory pathways during pregnancy and risk for PTB.

Impact of micronutrient fortification of yoghurt on micronutrient status markers and growth - a randomized double blind controlled trial among school children in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Interventions providing foods fortified with multiple micronutrients can be a cost-effective and sustainable strategy to improve micronutrient status and physical growth of school children. We evaluated the effect of micronutrient-fortified yoghurt on the biochemical status of important micronutrients (iron, zinc, iodine, vitamin A) as well as growth indicators among school children in Bogra district of Bangladesh. METHODS: In a double-masked randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in 4 primary schools, 1010 children from classes 1-4 (age 6-9 years) were randomly allocated to receive either micronutrient fortified yoghurt (FY, n = 501) or non-fortified yoghurt (NFY, n = 509). For one year, children were fed with 60 g yoghurt everyday providing 30% RDA for iron, zinc, iodine and vitamin A. Anthropometric measurements and blood/urine samples were collected at base-, mid- and end-line. All children (FY, n = 278, NFY, n = 293) consenting for the end-line blood sample were included in the present analyses. RESULTS: Both groups were comparable at baseline for socio-economic status variables, micronutrient status markers and anthropometry measures. Compliance was similar in both the groups. At baseline 53.4% of the population was anemic; 2.1% was iron deficient (ferritin <15.0 µg/L and TfR > 8.3 mg/L). Children in the FY group showed improvement in Hb (mean difference: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.4-2.5; p = 0.006) as compared to NFY group. Retinol binding protein (mean diff: 0.05; 95% CI: 0.002-0.09; p = 0.04) and iodine levels (mean difference: 39.87; 95% CI: 20.39-59.35; p < 0.001) decreased between base and end-line but the decrease was significantly less in the FY group. Compared to NFY, the FY group had better height gain velocity (mean diff: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.05-0.60; p = 0.02) and height-for-age z-scores (mean diff: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.02-0.33; p = 0.03). There was no difference in weight gain velocity, weight-for-age z-scores or Body Mass Index z-scores. CONCLUSION: In the absence of iron deficiency at baseline the impact on iron status would not be expected to be observed and hence cannot be evaluated. Improved Hb concentrations in the absence of a change in iron status suggest improved utilization of iron possibly due to vitamin A and zinc availability. Fortification improved height gain without affecting weight gain. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT00980733.