The use of continuous electronic prescribing data to infer trends in antimicrobial consumption and estimate the impact of stewardship interventions in hospitalized children.

BACKGROUND: Understanding antimicrobial consumption is essential to mitigate the development of antimicrobial resistance, yet robust data in children are sparse and methodologically limited. Electronic prescribing systems provide an important opportunity to analyse and report antimicrobial consumption in detail. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the value of electronic prescribing data from a tertiary children's hospital to report temporal trends in antimicrobial consumption in hospitalized children and compare commonly used metrics of antimicrobial consumption. METHODS: Daily measures of antimicrobial consumption [days of therapy (DOT) and DDDs] were derived from the electronic prescribing system between 2010 and 2018. Autoregressive moving-average models were used to infer trends and the estimates were compared with simulated point prevalence surveys (PPSs). RESULTS: More than 1.3 million antimicrobial administrations were analysed. There was significant daily and seasonal variation in overall consumption, which reduced annually by 1.77% (95% CI 0.50% to 3.02%). Relative consumption of meropenem decreased by 6.6% annually (95% CI -3.5% to 15.8%) following the expansion of the hospital antimicrobial stewardship programme. DOT and DDDs exhibited similar trends for most antimicrobials, though inconsistencies were observed where changes to dosage guidelines altered consumption calculation by DDDs, but not DOT. PPS simulations resulted in estimates of change over time, which converged on the model estimates, but with much less precision. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic prescribing systems offer significant opportunities to better understand and report antimicrobial consumption in children. This approach to modelling administration data overcomes the limitations of using interval data and dispensary data. It provides substantially more detailed inferences on prescribing patterns and the potential impact of stewardship interventions.

The impact of Type 2 diabetes prevention programmes based on risk-identification and lifestyle intervention intensity strategies: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: To develop a cost-effectiveness model to compare Type 2 diabetes prevention programmes targeting different at-risk population subgroups with a lifestyle intervention of varying intensity. METHODS: An individual patient simulation model was constructed to simulate the development of diabetes in a representative sample of adults without diabetes from the UK population. The model incorporates trajectories for HbA1c , 2-h glucose, fasting plasma glucose, BMI, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. Patients can be diagnosed with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, microvascular complications of diabetes, cancer, osteoarthritis and depression, or can die. The model collects costs and utilities over a lifetime horizon. The perspective is the UK National Health Service and personal social services. We used the model to evaluate the population-wide impact of targeting a lifestyle intervention of varying intensity to six population subgroups defined as high risk for diabetes. RESULTS: The intervention produces 0.0003 to 0.0009 incremental quality-adjusted life years and saves up to £1.04 per person in the general population, depending upon the subgroup targeted. Cost-effectiveness increases with intervention intensity. The most cost-effective options are to target individuals with HbA1c > 42 mmol/mol (6%) or with a high Finnish Diabetes Risk (FINDRISC) probability score (> 0.1). CONCLUSION: The model indicates that diabetes prevention interventions are likely to be cost-effective and may be cost-saving over a lifetime. In the model, the criteria for selecting at-risk individuals differentially impact upon diabetes and cardiovascular disease outcomes, and on the timing of benefits. These findings have implications for deciding who should be targeted for diabetes prevention interventions.

Evidence of multiple intraspecific transmission routes for Leptospira acquisition in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus).

Infectious diseases frequently have multiple potential routes of intraspecific transmission of pathogens within wildlife and other populations. For pathogens causing zoonotic diseases, knowing whether these transmission routes occur in the wild and their relative importance, is critical for understanding maintenance, improving control measures and ultimately preventing human disease. The Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) is the primary reservoir of leptospirosis in the urban slums of Salvador, Brazil. There is biological evidence for potentially three different transmission routes of leptospire infection occurring in the rodent population. Using newly obtained prevalence data from rodents trapped at an urban slum field site, we present changes in cumulative risk of infection in relation to age-dependent transmission routes to infer which intra-specific transmission routes occur in the wild. We found that a significant proportion of animals leave the nest with infection and that the risk of infection increases throughout the lifetime of Norway rats. We did not observe a significant effect of sexual maturity on the risk of infection. In conclusion, our results suggest that vertical and environmental transmission of leptospirosis both occur in wild populations of Norway rats.

Giardiasis in North West England: faecal specimen requesting rates by GP practice.

Many cases of giardiasis in the UK are undiagnosed and among other things, diagnosis is dependent upon the readiness of GPs to request a specimen. The aim of this study is to assess the rate of specimens requested per GP practice in Central Lancashire, to examine the differences between GP practices and to estimate the pattern of unexplained spatial variation in the practice rate of specimens after adjustment for deprivation. To achieve this, we fitted a set of binomial and Poisson regression models, with random effects for GP practice. Our analysis suggests that there were differences in the rate of specimens by GP practices (P < 0·001) for a single year, but no difference in the proportion of positive tests per specimen submitted or in the rate of positive specimens per practice population. There was a difference in the cumulative rate of positive specimens per practice population over a 9-year period (P < 0·001). Neither the specimen rate per practice for a single year nor the cumulative rate of positive specimens over multiple years demonstrated significant spatial correlation. Hence, spatial variation in the incidence of giardiasis is unlikely to be confounded by variation in GP rate of specimens.

Temporal and farm-management-associated variation in faecal pat prevalence of Arcobacter spp. in ruminants.

In a 2-year longitudinal study of adult animals on 15 dairy farms and four sheep farms in Lancashire, UK, Arcobacter spp. were isolated from all farms although not at every sampling occasion. Faecal samples were collected and cultured using standard techniques for isolation of campylobacters. Assignment to species was via PCR assays. Apparent prevalence of Arcobacter spp. was higher in dairy cattle compared to sheep (40.1% vs. 8%, P < 0.001) and in housed cattle compared to cattle at pasture (50.1% vs. 20.9%, P < 0.001). This was reflected in the higher prevalence observed in herds that were housed (n = 4) all year compared to herds that grazed cattle on pasture in the summer and housed cattle in the winter (n = 11) (55.5% vs. 36%, P < 0.001). In the case of sheep, peak prevalence was observed in autumn with increased prevalence also being associated with improving pasture quality. There was an apparent inverse association between the faecal pat prevalence of Arcobacter spp. and Campylobacter jejuni although this may in part be an artefact of laboratory test method sensitivity, whereby a relative increase in the frequency of one bacterial species would reduce the sensitivity of detecting the other.

A multi-state spatio-temporal Markov model for categorized incidence of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa.

Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem in the African Belt. Despite the obvious seasonality of epidemics, the factors driving them are still poorly understood. Here, we provide a first attempt to predict epidemics at the spatio-temporal scale required for in-year response, using a purely empirical approach. District-level weekly incidence rates for Niger (1986-2007) were discretized into latent, alert and epidemic states according to pre-specified epidemiological thresholds. We modelled the probabilities of transition between states, accounting for seasonality and spatio-temporal dependence. One-week-ahead predictions for entering the epidemic state were generated with specificity and negative predictive value >99%, sensitivity and positive predictive value >72%. On the annual scale, we predict the first entry of a district into the epidemic state with sensitivity 65∙0%, positive predictive value 49∙0%, and an average time gained of 4∙6 weeks. These results could inform decisions on preparatory actions.

A hierarchical model for real-time monitoring of variation in risk of non-specific gastrointestinal infections.

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Disease Surveillance and Statistics) project uses spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the incidence of gastrointestinal infections in the UK. The focus of this paper is the modelling of temporal variation in incidence using data from the Southampton area in southern England. We identified and fitted a hierarchical stochastic model for the time series of daily incident cases to enable probabilistic prediction of temporal variation in risk, and demonstrated the resulting gains in predictive accuracy by comparison with a conventional analysis based on an over-dispersed Poisson log-linear regression model. We used Bayesian methods of inference in order to incorporate parameter uncertainty in our predictive inference of risk. Incorporation of our model in the overall spatio-temporal model, will contribute to the accurate and timely prediction of unusually high food-poisoning incidence, and thus to the identification and prevention of future outbreaks.

Molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of Campylobacter jejuni in ruminants.

Multi-locus sequence typing was performed on 1003 Campylobacter jejuni isolates collected in a 2-year longitudinal study of 15 dairy farms and four sheep farms in Lancashire, UK. There was considerable farm-level variation in occurrence and prevalence of clonal complexes (CC). Clonal complexes ST61, ST21, ST403 and ST45 were most prevalent in cattle while in sheep CC ST42, ST21, ST48 and ST52 were most prevalent. CC ST45, a complex previously shown to be more common in summer months in human cases, was more prevalent in summer in our ruminant samples. Gene flow analysis demonstrated a high level of genetic heterogeneity at the within-farm level. Sequence-type diversity was greater in cattle compared to sheep, in cattle at pasture vs. housed, and in isolates from farms on the Pennines compared to the Southern Fylde. Sequence-type diversity was greatest in isolates belonging to CC ST21, ST45 and ST206.

Temporal and farm-management-associated variation in the faecal-pat prevalence of Campylobacter jejuni in ruminants.

In a 2-year longitudinal study of adult animals on 15 dairy farms and four sheep farms in Lancashire, UK. C. jejuni was isolated from all farms, although not on every occasion. Faecal samples were collected and cultured using standard techniques for isolation of Campylobacter. Assignment to species was via PCR assays. Peak prevalence of C. jejuni in both cattle and sheep was observed during the summer and in cattle this apparent seasonality was associated with grazing pasture [odds ratio (OR) 2.14], while in sheep it was independent of grazing. Increased prevalence was associated with increased milk yield (OR 1.05) and herd size (OR 1.01) in dairy cattle, and with increased stocking density (OR 1.29) and pasture quality (OR 2.16) in sheep. There was considerable variation in prevalence between farms but no evidence of large-scale spatial variation. The association between C. jejuni prevalence and diet in dairy cattle deserves further investigation.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni enteritis, in an area of Northwest England, 2000-2002.

A total of 969 isolates of Campylobacter jejuni originating in the Preston, Lancashire postcode district over a 3-year period were characterized using multi-locus sequence typing. Recently developed statistical methods and a genetic model were used to investigate temporal, spatial, spatio-temporal and genetic variation in human C. jejuni infections. The analysis of the data showed statistically significant seasonal variation, spatial clustering, small-scale spatio-temporal clustering and spatio-temporal interaction in the overall pattern of incidence, and spatial segregation in cases classified according to their most likely species-of-origin.

A spatial analysis of giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis in relation to public water supply distribution in North West England.

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are both waterborne parasites and leading causes of gastroenteritis. Although specimens from diarrhoeic patients are routinely examined for Cryptosporidium, they are often not examined for Giardia so many cases go undiagnosed. Since 2002, all faecal specimens in Central Lancashire have been tested for infection with Giardia and Cryptosporidium. The aim of this paper is to gain insight into the factors contributing to giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis, including evidence of transmission via drinking water. Our analysis found a higher risk of both conditions for young children and a second peak in risk of giardiasis in adults. There was a significantly higher risk of giardiasis for males and a higher risk of cryptosporidiosis for females. The geographical location was significant, with an increased risk in the north. Residence in an area with increased supply from one water treatment works was a significant predictor for cryptosporidiosis.

Investigation of spatial clustering from individually matched case-control studies.

The paper demonstrates how existing theory to assess spatial clustering based on second-moment properties of a labelled point process can be adapted to matched case-control studies. The null hypothesis that cases are a random sample from the superposition of cases and controls is replaced by the hypothesis that each case is a random sample from the set consisting of itself and its k matched controls. We compare the proposed test with other tests of spatial clustering, and describe an application to data on childhood diabetes in Yorkshire, England.

Point-source modelling using matched case-control data.

We describe an extension to matched case-control studies of the parametric modelling framework developed by Diggle (1990) and Diggle and Rowlingson (1994) to investigate raised risk around putative sources of environmental pollution. We use a conditional likelihood approach for the family of risk functions considered in Diggle and Rowlingson (1994). We show that the likelihood surface that results from these models may be highly irregular, and provide a Bayesian analysis in which we investigate the posterior distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo. An analysis of one-one matched data that were collected to investigate the relationship between respiratory disease and distance to roads in East London is presented.

Feasibility and acceptability of web-based enhanced relapse prevention for bipolar disorder (ERPonline): trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Relapse prevention interventions for Bipolar Disorder are effective but implementation in routine clinical services is poor. Web-based approaches offer a way to offer easily accessible access to evidence based interventions at low cost, and have been shown to be effective for other mood disorders. METHODS/DESIGN: This protocol describes the development and feasibility testing of the ERPonline web-based intervention using a single blind randomised controlled trial. Data will include the extent to which the site was used, detailed feedback from users about their experiences of the site, reported benefits and costs to mental health and wellbeing of users, and costs and savings to health services. We will gain an estimate of the likely effect size of ERPonline on a range of important outcomes including mood, functioning, quality of life and recovery. We will explore potential mechanisms of change, giving us a greater understanding of the underlying processes of change, and consequently how the site could be made more effective. We will be able to determine rates of recruitment and retention, and identify what factors could improve these rates. DISCUSSION: The findings will be used to improve the site in accordance with user needs, and inform the design of a large scale evaluation of the clinical and cost effectiveness of ERPonline. They will further contribute to the growing evidence base for web-based interventions designed to support people with mental health problems.

Statistical analysis of corticopontine neuron distribution in visual areas 17, 18, and 19 of the cat.

The spatial organization of visual corticopontine neurons was studied both at a "large scale" (in relation to cortical visual field maps) and at a "small scale" (in relation to cortical modular organization). Large injections of horse-radish peroxidase-wheat germ agglutinin were made in the pontine nuclei. In complete series of sections from parts of areas 17, 18, and 19, the position of each retrogradely labeled neuron was recorded with an x-y plotter connected to the microscope stage. Each cell was thus given a set of x, y, and z coordinates. After alignment of the sections, three-dimensional computer reconstructions of the distribution of the labeled cells were made. With program RPOP (developed by Blackstad and Bjaalie, '88), the reconstructions were studied with different rotations, scaling, etc. In addition, section-independent parts of reconstructions were isolated ("windows") and further analyzed. Curved parts were automatically unfolded for inspection of distribution patterns and determination of cell densities. The spatial distribution of the labeled cells was analyzed within small windows, where density gradients are negligible. We confirm and extend previous demonstrations of a large-scale aggregation of visual corticopontine cells due to density gradients by showing that densities of corticopontine neurons increase linearly as a function of distance from paracentral to lower visual field representations in area 17 (and partly in areas 18 and 19). We demonstrate that density gradients are steeper in area 17 than in area 18. For example, clear-cut differences between the areas in mediolateral density gradients are found. These findings are discussed in relation to the different visual field maps of the areas and the existence of a similar visual field representation in corticopontine projections from different visual areas. The type of small-scale distribution (randomness or non-randomness, aggregation into clusters, bands, etc.) was studied with statistical methods. Such analysis shows that the labeled cells within small zones are non-randomly distributed in all three areas. In most cases, the analysis indicates an aggregated spatial distribution. A possible relationship to the cortical map of direction selectivity is discussed. To our knowledge, this study is the first to combine the use of three-dimensional computer reconstructions of a population of labeled neurons, with subsequent statistical analysis of spatial point (cell distribution) patterns.

LH in polycystic ovary syndrome: reproducibility and pulsatile secretion.

Serum concentrations of LH are increased in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). We have investigated two aspects of LH secretion which have not previously been reported: its reproducibility within individuals and the pattern of superimposed pulses of LH secretion. In nine patients with PCOS the mean concentration of LH was calculated from 24 blood samples taken at 15-min intervals for 6 h on two or three occasions over 1 year. Results showed differences in mean LH between subjects but reproducible concentrations within subjects over that period. It has been shown that LH is secreted in a complicated pattern of superimposed pulses which can be characterized by using the statistical methods of time-series analysis. To evaluate these pulse patterns of LH we studied nine patients with PCOS and compared the results with those of 12 normal women in the early follicular phase of the ovarian cycle. Blood samples were taken at either 5-min intervals for 6 h of 1-min intervals for 1 h. Pulses were detected in both groups at frequencies of about 1 h and 2 to 3 min. There was no significant difference in the pulse frequencies between the patients and controls but the amplitude of both groups of pulses was increased in the PCOS patients.

Displaced amacrine cells in the retina of a rabbit: analysis of a bivariate spatial point pattern.

A data set consisting of the locations of "light-on" and "light-off" displaced amacrine cells in the retina of a rabbit is analysed using recently developed statistical methodology. The results are used to discriminate between two biological hypotheses concerning the genesis of the data. Some general comments are made on the statistical analysis of spatial point patterns.

Regular fluctuations in growth hormone (GH) release determine normal human growth.

Growth hormone (GH) is the principal hormone associated with growth through childhood, but in a normal child the amount of GH secretion does not appear to be critical in the generation of normal growth rates. We have assessed the relationship between growth and urinary GH (uGH) output in a longitudinal study of 29 healthy prepubertal schoolchildren (13 male, 16 female; age 5.7-7.8 years) over 1 year. Height and uGH were measured three times a week. Individual height velocity curves were derived using non-linear regression. Growth was expressed in terms of the total increment over the year (DeltaHt, cm), height velocity standard deviation score (HVSDS) and the average size of individual growth spurts. Urinary GH data (ng) were expressed as a weekly average. Mean uGH did not correlate with stature or growth over the year. However, the coefficient of variation of uGH was correlated with height standard deviation score (HtSDS, r = 0.38, P< 0.05), while the relative constancy of short-term change in uGH (coefficient of incremental change, DeltaINC) was inversely correlated with DeltaHt (r = - 0.44) and HVSDS (r = - 0.42, both P< 0.05) but not with HtSDS. DeltaINC was also inversely correlated with the average size of individual growth spurts derived from the height velocity curves (r = - 0.45, P< 0.05). Using time series analysis to identify rhythms in uGH excretion, a positive correlation was found between the magnitude of rhythms of a period of 2 to 4 weeks and HtSDS (r = 0.40, P< 0.05). These data demonstrate that variability in GH is a more important determinant of normal childhood growth rate than the amount of GH alone. Stature is correlated to the overall variability in GH release, while increment in height and the magnitude of individual growth spurts are influenced by the constancy of the GH profile. This would imply that once the GH dose has been replaced in GH deficiency, optimal growth could only be achieved by varying the pattern of GH administration.

Second-order analysis of space-time clustering.

We consider the problem of detecting and describing space-time interaction in point process data. We extend existing second-order methods for purely spatial point process data to the spatial-temporal setting. This extension allows us to estimate space-time interaction as a function of spatial and temporal separation, and provides a useful reinterpretation of a popular test, due to Knox, for space-time interaction. Applications to simulated and real data indicate the method's potential.