Global dissemination of influenza A virus is driven by wild bird migration through arctic and subarctic zones.

Influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migratory and native bird species present during breeding seasons. Iceland is a staging ground that connects the East Atlantic and North Atlantic American flyways, providing a unique study system for characterizing viral flow between eastern and western hemispheres. Using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we sought to evaluate the viral connectivity of Iceland to proximal regions and how inter-species transmission and reassortment dynamics in this region influence the geographic spread of low and highly pathogenic IAVs. Findings demonstrate that IAV movement in the arctic and subarctic reflects wild bird migration around the perimeter of the circumpolar north, favouring short-distance flights between proximal regions rather than long distance flights over the polar interior. Iceland connects virus movement between mainland Europe and North America, consistent with the westward migration of wild birds from mainland Europe to Northeastern Canada and Greenland. Though virus diffusion rates were similar among avian taxonomic groups in Iceland, gulls play an outsized role as sinks of IAVs from other avian hosts prior to onward migration. These data identify patterns of virus movement in northern latitudes and inform future surveillance strategies related to seasonal and emergent IAVs with potential public health concern.

Aerosol Transmission of Gull-Origin Iceland Subtype H10N7 Influenza A Virus in Ferrets.

Subtype H10 influenza A viruses (IAVs) have been recovered from domestic poultry and various aquatic bird species, and sporadic transmission of these IAVs from avian species to mammals (i.e., human, seal, and mink) are well documented. In 2015, we isolated four H10N7 viruses from gulls in Iceland. Genomic analyses showed four gene segments in the viruses were genetically associated with H10 IAVs that caused influenza outbreaks and deaths among European seals in 2014. Antigenic characterization suggested minimal antigenic variation among these H10N7 isolates and other archived H10 viruses recovered from human, seal, mink, and various avian species in Asia, Europe, and North America. Glycan binding preference analyses suggested that, similar to other avian-origin H10 IAVs, these gull-origin H10N7 IAVs bound to both avian-like alpha 2,3-linked sialic acids and human-like alpha 2,6-linked sialic acids. However, when the gull-origin viruses were compared with another Eurasian avian-origin H10N8 IAV, which caused human infections, the gull-origin virus showed significantly higher binding affinity to human-like glycan receptors. Results from a ferret experiment demonstrated that a gull-origin H10N7 IAV replicated well in turbinate, trachea, and lung, but replication was most efficient in turbinate and trachea. This gull-origin H10N7 virus can be transmitted between ferrets through the direct contact and aerosol routes, without prior adaptation. Gulls share their habitat with other birds and mammals and have frequent contact with humans; therefore, gull-origin H10N7 IAVs could pose a risk to public health. Surveillance and monitoring of these IAVs at the wild bird-human interface should be continued.IMPORTANCE Subtype H10 avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) have caused sporadic human infections and enzootic outbreaks among seals. In the fall of 2015, H10N7 viruses were recovered from gulls in Iceland, and genomic analyses showed that the viruses were genetically related with IAVs that caused outbreaks among seals in Europe a year earlier. These gull-origin viruses showed high binding affinity to human-like glycan receptors. Transmission studies in ferrets demonstrated that the gull-origin IAV could infect ferrets, and that the virus could be transmitted between ferrets through direct contact and aerosol droplets. This study demonstrated that avian H10 IAV can infect mammals and be transmitted among them without adaptation. Thus, avian H10 IAV is a candidate for influenza pandemic preparedness and should be monitored in wildlife and at the animal-human interface.

Avian influenza virus prevalence in marine birds is dependent on ocean temperatures.

Waterfowl and shorebirds are the primary hosts of influenza A virus (IAV), however, in most surveillance efforts, large populations of birds are not routinely examined; specifically marine ducks and other birds that reside predominately on or near the ocean. We conducted a long-term study sampling sea ducks and gulls in coastal Maine for IAV and found a virus prevalence (1.7%) much lower than is typically found in freshwater duck populations. We found wide year-to-year variation in virus detection in sea ducks and that the ocean water temperature was an important factor affecting IAV prevalence. In particular, the ocean temperature that occurred 11 d prior to collecting virus positive samples was important while water temperature measured concurrently with host sampling had no explanatory power for viral detection. We also experimentally showed that IAV is relatively unstable in sea water at temperatures typically found during our sampling. This represents the first report of virus prevalence and actual environmental data that help explain the variation in marine IAV transmission dynamics.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise.

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Potential for Waterborne and Invertebrate Transmission of West Nile Virus in the Great Salt Lake, Utah.

In November and December of 2013, a large mortality event involving 15,000 to 20,000 eared grebes (Podiceps nigricollis) occurred at the Great Salt Lake (GSL), UT. The onset of the outbreak in grebes was followed by a mortality event in >86 bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). During the die-off, West Nile virus (WNV) was detected by reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) or viral culture in the carcasses of grebes and eagles submitted to the National Wildlife Health Center. However, no activity of mosquitoes, the primary vectors of WNV, was detected by the State of Utah's WNV monitoring program. The transmission of WNV has rarely been reported during the winter in North America in the absence of known mosquito activity; however, the size of this die-off, the habitat in which it occurred, and the species involved are unique. We experimentally investigated whether WNV could survive in water with a high salt content, as found at the GSL, and whether brine shrimp, the primary food of migrating eared grebes on the GSL, could have played a role in the transmission of WNV to feeding birds. We found that WNV can survive up to 72 h at 4°C in water containing 30 to 150 ppt NaCl, and brine shrimp incubated with WNV in 30 ppt NaCl may adsorb WNV to their cuticle and, through feeding, infect epithelial cells of their gut. Both mechanisms may have potentiated the WNV die-off in migrating eared grebes on the GSL.IMPORTANCE Following a major West Nile virus die-off of eared grebes and bald eagles at the Great Salt Lake (GSL), UT, in November to December 2013, this study assessed the survival of West Nile virus (WNV) in water as saline as that of the GSL and whether brine shrimp, the major food for migrating grebes, could have played a role as a vector for the virus. While mosquitoes are the major vector of WNV, under certain circumstances, transmission may occur through contaminated water and invertebrates as food.

Rapidly Expanding Range of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses.

The movement of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) virus across Eurasia and into North America and the virus' propensity to reassort with co-circulating low pathogenicity viruses raise concerns among poultry producers, wildlife biologists, aviculturists, and public health personnel worldwide. Surveillance, modeling, and experimental research will provide the knowledge required for intelligent policy and management decisions.

Viral pathogen detection in U.S. game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) flags spillover risk to wild birds.

The threat posed by emerging infectious diseases is a major concern for global public health, animal health and food security, and the role of birds in transmission is increasingly under scrutiny. Each year, millions of mass-reared game-farm birds are released into the wild, presenting a unique and a poorly understood risk to wild and susceptible bird populations, and to human health. In particular, the shedding of enteric pathogens through excrement into bodies of water at shared migratory stop-over sites, and breeding and wintering grounds, could facilitate multi-species long-distance pathogen dispersal and infection of high numbers of naive endemic birds annually. The Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is the most abundant of all duck species, migratory across much of its range, and an important game species for pen-rearing and release. Major recent population declines along the US Atlantic coast has been attributed to game-farm and wild mallard interbreeding and the introduction maladaptive traits into wild populations. However, pathogen transmission and zoonosis among game-farms Mallard may also impact these populations, as well as wildlife and human health. Here, we screened 16 game-farm Mallard from Wisconsin, United States, for enteric viral pathogens using metatranscriptomic data. Four families of viral pathogens were identified - Picobirnaviridae (Genogroup I), Caliciviridae (Duck Nacovirus), Picornaviridae (Duck Aalivirus) and Sedoreoviridae (Duck Rotavirus G). To our knowledge, this is the first report of Aalivirus in the Americas, and the first report of Calicivirus outside domestic chicken and turkey flocks in the United States. Our findings highlight the risk of viral pathogen spillover from peri-domestically reared game birds to naive wild bird populations.

Migratory flyway and geographical distance are barriers to the gene flow of influenza virus among North American birds.

Despite the importance of migratory birds in the ecology and evolution of avian influenza virus (AIV), there is a lack of information on the patterns of AIV spread at the intra-continental scale. We applied a variety of statistical phylogeographic techniques to a plethora of viral genome sequence data to determine the strength, pattern and determinants of gene flow in AIV sampled from wild birds in North America. These analyses revealed a clear isolation-by-distance of AIV among sampling localities. In addition, we show that phylogeographic models incorporating information on the avian flyway of sampling proved a better fit to the observed sequence data than those specifying homogeneous or random rates of gene flow among localities. In sum, these data strongly suggest that the intra-continental spread of AIV by migratory birds is subject to major ecological barriers, including spatial distance and avian flyway.

The effect of swab sample choice on the detection of avian influenza in apparently healthy wild ducks.

Historically, avian influenza viruses have been isolated from cloacal swab specimens, but recent data suggest that the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus can be better detected from respiratory tract specimens. To better understand how swab sample type affects the detection ability of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses we collected and tested four swab types: oropharyngeal swabs (OS), cloacal swabs (CS), the two swab types combined in the laboratory (LCS), and the two swab types combined in the field (FCS). A total of 1968 wild waterfowl were sampled by each of these four methods and tested for avian influenza virus using matrix gene reverse-transcription (RT)-PCR. The highest detection rate occurred with the FCS (4.3%) followed by the CS (4.0%). Although this difference did not achieve traditional statistical significance, Bayesian analysis indicated that FCS was superior to CS with an 82% probability. The detection rates for both the LCS (2.4%) and the OS (0.4%) were significantly different from the FCS. In addition, every swab type that was matrix RT-PCR positive was also tested for recovery of viable influenza virus. This protocol reduced the detection rate, but the ordering of swab types remained the same: 1.73% FCS, 1.42% CS, 0.81% LCS, and 0% OS. Our data suggest that the FCS performed at least as well as any other swab type for detecting LPAI viruses in the wild ducks tested. When considering recent studies showing that HPAI H5N1 can be better detected in the respiratory tract, the FCS is the most appropriate sample to collect for HPAI H5N1 surveillance while not compromising LPAI studies.

Paralytic shellfish toxins associated with Arctic Tern mortalities in Alaska.

Harmful algal blooms produce biotoxins that can injure or kill fish, wildlife, and humans. These blooms occur naturally but have intensified in many locations globally due to recent climatic changes, including ocean warming. Such changes are especially pronounced in northern regions, where the effects of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) on marine wildlife are of growing concern. In Alaska, seabird mortality events have increased in frequency, magnitude, and duration since 2015 alongside anomalously high ocean temperatures. Although starvation has been implicated as the apparent cause of death in many of these die-offs, saxitoxin (STX) and other PSTs have been identified as possible contributing factors. Here, we describe a mortality event at a nesting colony of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea) near Juneau, Alaska in 2019 and report elevated concentrations of PSTs in bird, forage fish, and mussel samples. Concentrations of STX and other PSTs in tern tissues (2.5-51.2 µg 100g-1 STX-equivalents [STX-eq]) were of similar magnitude to those reported from other PST-induced bird die-offs. We documented high PST concentrations in blue mussels (>11,000 µg 100g-1 STX-eq; Mytilus edulis spp.) collected from nearby beaches, as well as in forage fish (up to 494 µg 100g-1 STX-eq) retrieved from Arctic Tern nests, thereby providing direct evidence of PST exposure via the terns' prey. At maximum concentrations measured in this study, a single 5 g Pacific Sand Lance (Ammodytes personatus) could exceed the median lethal STX dose (LD50) currently estimated for birds, offering strong support for PSTs as a likely source of tern mortality. In addition to describing this localized bird mortality event, we used existing energetics data from adult and nestling Arctic Terns to calculate estimated cumulative daily PST exposure based on ecologically relevant concentrations in forage fish. Our estimates revealed potentially lethal levels of PST exposure even at relatively low (≤30 ug 100g-1 STX-eq) toxin concentrations in prey. These findings suggest that PSTs present a significant hazard to Arctic Terns and other northern seabirds and should be included in future investigations of avian mortality events as well as assessments of population health.

Evaluation of Nobuto filter paper strips for the detection of avian influenza virus antibody in waterfowl.

The utility of using Nobuto paper strips for the detection of avian influenza antibodies was examined in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) experimentally infected with low pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Blood was collected 2 wk after infection and was preserved either as serum or whole blood absorbed onto Nobuto strips. Analysis of samples using a commercially available blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay revealed comparable results (> or = 96% sensitivity for all methods) between sera stored at -30 C and the Nobuto strip preservation method even when the Nobuto strips were stored up to 3 mo at room temperature (RT). Significant differences were detected in the ratio of sample absorbance to negative control absorbance for Nobuto strips stored at RT compared with sera stored at -30 C, although these differences did not affect the ability of the test to reliably detect positive and negative samples. Nobuto strips are a convenient and sensitive alternative to the collection of serum samples when maintaining appropriate storage temperatures is difficult.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N2 (clade 2.3.4.4) challenge of mallards age appropriate to the 2015 midwestern poultry outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N2 clade 2.3.4.4 outbreak in upper midwestern U.S. poultry operations was not detected in wild birds to any great degree during the outbreak, despite wild waterfowl being implicated in the introduction, reassortment, and movement of the virus into North America from Asia. This outbreak led to the demise of over 50 million domestic birds and occurred mainly during the northward spring migration of adult avian populations. OBJECTIVES: There have been no experimental examinations of the pathogenesis, transmission, and population impacts of this virus in adult wild waterfowl with varying exposure histories-the most relevant age class. METHODS: We captured, housed, and challenged adult wild mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) with HPAIV H5N2 clade 2.3.4.4 and measured viral infection, viral excretion, and transmission to other mallards. RESULTS: All inoculated birds became infected and excreted moderate amounts of virus, primarily orally, for up to 14 days. Cohoused, uninoculated birds also all became infected. Serological status had no effect on susceptibility. There were no obvious clinical signs of disease, and all birds survived to the end of the study (14 days). CONCLUSIONS: Based on these results, adult mallards are viable hosts of HPAIV H5N2 regardless of prior exposure history and are capable of transporting the virus over short and long distances. These findings have implications for surveillance efforts. The capture and sampling of wild waterfowl in the spring, when most surveillance programs are not operating, are important to consider in the design of future HPAIV surveillance programs.

Acute oral toxicity and tissue residues of saxitoxin in the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos).

Since 2014, widespread, annual mortality events involving multiple species of seabirds have occurred in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and Chukchi Sea. Among these die-offs, emaciation was a common finding with starvation often identified as the cause of death. However, saxitoxin (STX) was detected in many carcasses, indicating exposure of these seabirds to STX in the marine environment. Few data are available that describe the effects of STX in birds, thus presenting challenges for determining its contributions to specific mortality events. To address these knowledge gaps, we conducted an acute oral toxicity trial in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), a common laboratory avian model, using an up-and-down method to estimate the median lethal dose (LD50) for STX. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we tested select tissues from all birds and feces from those individuals that survived initial dosing. Samples with an ELISA result that exceeded approximately 10 µg 100 g-1 STX and randomly selected ELISA negative samples were further tested by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Tissues collected from mallards were also examined grossly at necropsy and then later by microscopy to identify lesions attributable to STX. The estimated LD50 was 167 µg kg-1 (95% CI = 69-275 µg kg-1). Saxitoxin was detected in fecal samples of all mallards tested for up to 48 h after dosing and at the end of the sampling period (7 d) in three birds. In those individuals that died or were euthanized <2 h after dosing, STX was readily detected throughout the gastrointestinal tract but only infrequently in heart, kidney, liver, lung, and breast muscle. No gross or microscopic lesions were observed that could be attributable to STX exposure. Given its acute toxicity, limited detectability, and frequent occurrence in the Alaska marine environment, additional research on STX in seabirds is warranted.

Investigation of Algal Toxins in a Multispecies Seabird Die-Off in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

Between 2014 and 2017, widespread seabird mortality events were documented annually in the Bering and Chukchi seas, concurrent with dramatic reductions of sea ice, warmer than average ocean temperatures, and rapid shifts in marine ecosystems. Among other changes in the marine environment, harmful algal blooms (HABs) that produce the neurotoxins saxitoxin (STX) and domoic acid (DA) have been identified as a growing concern in this region. Although STX and DA have been documented in Alaska (US) for decades, current projections suggest that the incidence of HABs is likely to increase with climate warming and may pose a threat to marine birds and other wildlife. In 2017, a multispecies die-off consisting of primarily Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and Short-tailed Shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) occurred in the Bering and Chukchi seas. To evaluate whether algal toxins may have contributed to bird mortality, we tested carcasses collected from multiple locations in western and northern Alaska for STX and DA. We did not detect DA in any samples, but STX was present in 60% of all individuals tested and in 88% of Northern Fulmars. Toxin concentrations in Northern Fulmars were within the range of those reported from other STX-induced bird die-offs, suggesting that STX may have contributed to mortalities. However, direct neurotoxic action by STX could not be confirmed and starvation appeared to be the proximate cause of death among birds examined in this study.

Surveillance for high pathogenicity avian influenza virus in wild birds in the Pacific Flyway of the United States, 2006-2007.

In 2006 the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Interior, and cooperating state fish and wildlife agencies began surveillance for high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in wild birds in the Pacific Flyway of the United States. This surveillance effort was highly integrated in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and western Montana, with collection of samples coordinated with state agencies. Sampling focused on live wild birds, hunter-killed waterfowl during state hunting seasons, and wild bird mortality events. Of 20,888 samples collected, 18,139 were from order Anseriformes (waterfowl) and 2010 were from order Charadriiformes (shorebirds), representing the two groups of birds regarded to be the primary reservoirs of avian influenza viruses. Although 83 birds were positive by H5 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), no HPAI H5N1 virus was found. Thirty-two virus isolates were obtained from the H5-positive samples, including low-pathogenicity H5 viruses identified as H5N2, H5N3, and H5N9.

Experimental infection of Hawai'i 'Amakihi (hemignathus virens) with West Nile virus and competence of a co-occurring vector, culex quinquefasciatus: potential impacts on endemic Hawaiian avifauna.

Introduced mosquito-borne avian disease is a major limiting factor in the recovery and restoration of native Hawaiian forest birds. Annual epizootics of avian pox (Avipoxvirus) and avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) likely led to the extinction of some species and continue to impact populations of susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidinae). The introduction of a novel pathogen, such as West Nile virus (WNV), could result in further population declines and extinctions. During September and October 2004, we infected Hawai'i' Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) with a North American isolate of WNV by needle inoculation and mosquito bite to observe susceptibility, mortality, and illness in this endemic passerine, and to determine the vector competence of the co-occurring, introduced mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. All experimentally infected Hawai'i ;Amakihi became viremic, with a mean titer >10(5) plaque-forming units (PFU)/ml, and they experienced clinical signs ranging from anorexia and lethargy to ataxia. The fatality rate among needle-inoculated Hawai'i' Amakihi (n=16) was 31.3%, but mortality in free-ranging birds is likely to increase due to predation, starvation, thermal stress, and concomitant infections of avian malaria and pox. Surviving Hawai'i' Amakihi seem to clear WNV from the peripheral blood by 7-10 days postinfection (DPI), and neutralizing antibodies were detected from 9 to 46 DPI. In transmission trials, Hawaiian Cx. quinquefasciatus proved to be a competent vector and Hawai'i Amakihi an adequate amplification host of WNV, suggesting that epizootic WNV could readily become an additional limiting factor of some native Hawaiian bird populations.

Mortality of Little Brown Bats ( Myotis lucifugus carissima) Naturally Exposed to Microcystin-LR.

We describe a die-off of little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus carissima) associated with acute intoxication with microcystin-LR in 2016 at Scofield Reservoir in Utah, US. High levels of this cyanotoxin in water from the reservoir and gastrointestinal content of bats supported this diagnosis.

Molecular epidemiology of eastern equine encephalitis virus, New York.

Perpetuation, overwintering, and extinction of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in northern foci are poorly understood. We therefore sought to describe the molecular epidemiology of EEEV in New York State during current and past epizootics. To determine whether EEEV overwinters, is periodically reintroduced, or both, we sequenced the E2 and partial NSP3 coding regions of 42 EEEV isolates from New York State and the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Our phylogenetic analyses indicated that derived subclades tended to contain southern strains that had been isolated before genetically similar northern strains, suggesting southern to northern migration of EEEV along the Eastern Seaboard. Strong clustering among strains isolated during epizootics in New York from 2003-2005, as well as from 1974-1975, demonstrates that EEEV has overwintered in this focus. This study provides molecular evidence for the introduction of southern EEEV strains to New York, followed by local amplification, perpetuation, and overwintering.

Prevalence of Influenza A viruses in wild migratory birds in Alaska: patterns of variation in detection at a crossroads of intercontinental flyways.

BACKGROUND: The global spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has stimulated interest in a better understanding of the mechanisms of H5N1 dispersal, including the potential role of migratory birds as carriers. Although wild birds have been found dead during H5N1 outbreaks, evidence suggests that others have survived natural infections, and recent studies have shown several species of ducks capable of surviving experimental inoculations of H5N1 and shedding virus. To investigate the possibility of migratory birds as a means of H5N1 dispersal into North America, we monitored for the virus in a surveillance program based on the risk that wild birds may carry the virus from Asia. RESULTS: Of 16,797 birds sampled in Alaska between May 2006 and March 2007, low pathogenic avian influenza viruses were detected in 1.7% by rRT-PCR but no highly pathogenic viruses were found. Our data suggest that prevalence varied among sampling locations, species (highest in waterfowl, lowest in passerines), ages (juveniles higher than adults), sexes (males higher than females), date (highest in autumn), and analytical technique (rRT-PCR prevalence = 1.7%; virus isolation prevalence = 1.5%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds depends on biological, temporal, and geographical factors, as well as testing methods. Future studies should control for, or sample across, these sources of variation to allow direct comparison of prevalence rates.

Inferring epidemiologic dynamics from viral evolution: 2014-2015 Eurasian/North American highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses exceed transmission threshold, R0 = 1, in wild birds and poultry in North America.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a multihost pathogen with lineages that pose health risks for domestic birds, wild birds, and humans. One mechanism of intercontinental HPAIV spread is through wild bird reservoirs, and wild birds were the likely sources of a Eurasian (EA) lineage HPAIV into North America in 2014. The introduction resulted in several reassortment events with North American (NA) lineage low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the reassortant EA/NA H5N2 went on to cause one of the largest HPAIV poultry outbreaks in North America. We evaluated three hypotheses about novel HPAIV introduced into wild and domestic bird hosts: (i) transmission of novel HPAIVs in wild birds was restricted by mechanisms associated with highly pathogenic phenotypes; (ii) the HPAIV poultry outbreak was not self-sustaining and required viral input from wild birds; and (iii) reassortment of the EA H5N8 generated reassortant EA/NA AIVs with a fitness advantage over fully Eurasian lineages in North American wild birds. We used a time-rooted phylodynamic model that explicitly incorporated viral population dynamics with evolutionary dynamics to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and viral migration among host types in domestic and wild birds, as well as between the EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. We did not find evidence to support hypothesis (i) or (ii) as our estimates of the transmission parameters suggested that the HPAIV outbreak met or exceeded the threshold for persistence in wild birds (R0 > 1) and poultry (R0 ≈ 1) with minimal estimated transmission among host types. There was also no evidence to support hypothesis (iii) because R0 values were similar among EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. Our results suggest that this novel HPAIV and reassortments did not encounter any transmission barriers sufficient to prevent persistence when introduced to wild or domestic birds.