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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: International regulatory agencies recommend testing drug therapy for patients with noncirrhotic high-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) because they are at risk of liver-related events (LRE). We aimed to compare the risk of LRE in patients with MASLD stratified for F2-F4 fibrosis and MASH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Overall, 1938 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven MASLD were enrolled. High-risk MASH was defined as MASH with F2-F4 fibrosis. LSM was measured by transient elastography. LRE were recorded during follow-up. Cox multivariate models were used to assess the association between high-risk MASH or F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, of LSM (≥8 or ≥10 Kpa), and of AGILE 3+ with LRE. The diagnostic performance for the prediction of LRE was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The observed 5-year actuarial rate of LRE was 0.4%, 0.2%, 5.1%, and 6.6% in patients with F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH, F0-F1 fibrosis with MASH, F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH, and high-risk MASH, respectively. At multivariate Cox regression analysis using F0-F1 fibrosis without MASH as a reference, both F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH [adjusted HR (aHR) 9.96] and high-risk MASH (aHR 10.14) were associated with LRE. In the 1074 patients with available LSM, LSM ≥ 10 kPa (aHR 6.31) or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 (aHR 27.45) independently predicted the development of LRE and had similarly acceptable 5-year area under the receiver operating characteristic to high-risk MASH and F2-F4 fibrosis (0.772, 0.818, 0.739, and 0.780, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of LRE is similar in patients with high-risk MASH and with F2-F4 fibrosis without MASH. The use of LSM ≥ 10 kPa or AGILE 3+ > 0.67 could be an accurate option to identify patients with MASLD worthy to be included in clinical trials.
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Diagnóstico por Imagen de Elasticidad , Hígado Graso , Humanos , Cirrosis Hepática/etiología , Hígado/diagnóstico por imagen , Hígado/patología , Hígado Graso/patología , Curva ROC , Biopsia/efectos adversos , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Unlike other malignancies, hepatic functional reserve competes with tumor progression in determining the risk of mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the relative contribution of hepatic decompensation over tumor progression in influencing overall survival (OS) has not been assessed in combination immunotherapy recipients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: From the AB-real observational study (n = 898), we accrued 571 patients with advanced/unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, Child-Pugh A class treated with frontline atezolizumab + bevacizumab (AB). Hepatic decompensation and tumor progression during follow-up were studied in relationship to patients' OS using a time-dependent Cox model. Baseline characteristics were evaluated as predictors of decompensation in competing risks analysis. During a median follow-up of 11.0 months (95% CI: 5.1-19.7), 293 patients (51.3%) developed tumor progression without decompensation, and 94 (16.5%) developed decompensation. In multivariable time-dependent analysis, decompensation (HR: 19.04, 95% CI: 9.75-37.19), hepatocellular carcinoma progression (HR: 9.91, 95% CI: 5.85-16.78), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2/3 (HR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.69-2.77), and number of nodules >3(HR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.28-2.08) were independently associated with OS. Pretreatment ALBI grade 2/3 (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR]: 3.35, 95% CI: 1.98-5.67) was independently associated with decompensation, whereas viral etiology was protective (sHR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.34-0.87). Among patients with viral etiology, effective antiviral treatment was significantly associated with a lower risk of decompensation (sHR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Hepatic decompensation identifies patients with the worst prognosis following AB and is more common in patients with baseline ALBI >1 and nonviral etiology. Effective antiviral treatment may protect from decompensation, highlighting the prognostic disadvantage of patients with nonviral etiologies and the importance of multidisciplinary management to maximize OS.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) improves survival in patients with cirrhosis with refractory ascites and portal hypertensive bleeding. However, the indication for TIPS in older adult patients (greater than or equal to 70 years) is debated, and a specific prediction model developed in this particular setting is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multivariable model for an accurate prediction of mortality in older adults. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 411 consecutive patients observed at four referral centers with de novo TIPS implantation for refractory ascites or secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding (derivation cohort) and an external cohort of 415 patients with similar indications for TIPS (validation cohort). Older adult patients in the two cohorts were 99 and 76, respectively. A cause-specific Cox competing risks model was used to predict liver-related mortality, with orthotopic liver transplant and death for extrahepatic causes as competing events. Age, alcoholic etiology, creatinine levels, and international normalized ratio in the overall cohort, and creatinine and sodium levels in older adults were independent risk factors for liver-related death by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: After TIPS implantation, mortality is increased by aging, but TIPS placement should not be precluded in patients older than 70 years. In older adults, creatinine and sodium levels are useful predictors for decision making. Further efforts to update the prediction model with larger sample size are warranted.
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Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas , Derivación Portosistémica Intrahepática Transyugular , Humanos , Anciano , Derivación Portosistémica Intrahepática Transyugular/efectos adversos , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/etiología , Ascitis/etiología , Ascitis/cirugía , Creatinina , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/etiología , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/cirugía , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/cirugía , Sodio , Resultado del Tratamiento , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of simple, noninvasive tests (NITs) in NAFLD patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was an individual patient data meta-analysis of 1780 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and T2D. The index tests of interest were FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and AGILE 3+. The target conditions were advanced fibrosis, NASH, and fibrotic NASH(NASH plus F2-F4 fibrosis). The diagnostic performance of noninvasive tests. individually or in sequential combination, was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and by decision curve analysis. Comparison with 2278 NAFLD patients without T2D was also made. In NAFLD with T2D LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed, both NFS and FIB-4 for advanced fibrosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.82, AGILE 3+ 0.82, NFS 0.72, FIB-4 0.75, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index 0.68; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests), with an uncertainty area of 12%-20%. The combination of serum-based with LSM-based tests for advanced fibrosis led to a reduction of 40%-60% in necessary LSM tests. Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had a modest net benefit for ruling out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5%-10% of missing advanced fibrosis. LSM and AGILE 3+ outperformed both NFS and FIB-4 for fibrotic NASH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve:LSM 0.79, AGILE 3+ 0.77, NFS 0.71, FIB-4 0.71; p < 0.001 of LSM-based versus simple serum tests). All noninvasive scores were suboptimal for diagnosing NASH. CONCLUSIONS: LSM and AGILE 3+ individually or in low availability settings in sequential combination after FIB-4 or NFS have a similar good diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis and an acceptable diagnostic accuracy for fibrotic NASH in NAFLD patients with T2D.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Humanos , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrosis Hepática/etiología , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Hígado/diagnóstico por imagen , Hígado/patología , Fibrosis , Gravedad del Paciente , Curva ROC , Biopsia , Aspartato AminotransferasasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with overt or occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection receiving immunosuppressive treatments have a wide risk of HBV reactivation (HBVr). We performed meta-analysis with decision curve analyses (DCA) to estimate the risk of HBVr in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) receiving immunosuppressive treatments. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Studies were identified through literature search until October 2022. Pooled estimates were obtained using random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed according to underlying disease and immunosuppressive treatments. DCA was used to identify the threshold probability associated with the net benefit of antiviral prophylaxis in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients. We selected 68 studies (40 retrospective and 28 prospective), including 8034 patients with HBsAg negative anti-HBc positive. HBVr was 4% (95% CI 3%-6%) in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients, with a significantly high heterogeneity (I2 69%; p < .01). The number-needed-to-treat (NNT) by DCA ranged from 8 to 24 for chemotherapy plus rituximab, from 12 to 24 for targeted therapies in cancer patients and from 13 to 39 for immune-mediated diseases. Net benefit was small for monoclonal antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Our DCA in HBsAg-negative anti-HBc-positive patients provided evidence that NA prophylaxis is strongly recommended in patients treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab and could be appropriate in patients with cancer treated with targeted therapies and in patients with immune-mediated diseases. Finally, in patients with cancer treated with monoclonal antibodies or with chemotherapy without rituximab, the net benefit is even lower.
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IMPORTANCE: The recent change in terminology from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) highlights the link between hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction, taking out the stigmata of alcohol. OBJECTIVE: We compared the effects of NAFLD and MAFLD definitions on the risk of overall and cardiovascular (CV) mortality, liver-related events (LRE), nonfatal CV events (CVE), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and extra-hepatic cancers (EHC). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: We systematically searched four large electronic databases for cohort studies (published through August 2023) that simultaneously used NAFLD and MAFLD definitions for examining the risk of mortality and adverse CV, renal, or oncological outcomes associated with both definitions. In total, 21 eligible cohort studies were identified. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling. RESULTS: Compared with those with NAFLD, individuals with MAFLD had significantly higher rates of overall mortality (random-effect OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21, p = .004) and CV mortality (random-effect OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.26, p = .004), and a marginal trend towards higher rates of developing CKD (random-effect OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12, p = .058) and EHC events (random-effect OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00-1.23, p = .052). We found no significant differences in the risk LREs and nonfatal CVE between MAFLD and NAFLD. Meta-regression analyses identified male sex and metabolic comorbidities as the strongest risk factors related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in MAFLD compared to NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individuals with MAFLD have higher rates of overall and CV mortality and higher rates of developing CKD and EHC events than those with NAFLD, possibly due to the dysmetabolic risk profile related to MAFLD.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of AGILE 3+, a recently developed score based on the combination of aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, platelet count, diabetes status, sex, age, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography, when compared with Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and LSM, for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of liver-related events (LREs) occurrence in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: A total of 614 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. LREs were recorded during follow-up. FIB-4, LSM by transient elastography (FibroScan device), and AGILE 3+ were measured. The diagnostic performance of noninvasive criteria for advanced fibrosis and for the prediction of LREs was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: In patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD (n = 520), LSM and AGILE 3+ had higher AUROC than FIB-4 (0.88 for LSM and AGILE 3+ vs 0.78 for FIB-4; P < .001) for advanced fibrosis, and AGILE 3+ exhibited a smaller indeterminate area in the test (25.2% for FIB-4 vs 13.1% for LSM vs 8.3% for AGILE 3+). Within the entire cohort of patients, AGILE 3+ had significantly higher AUROC for predicting LREs with respect to LSM (AUROC 36 months 0.95 vs 0.93; P =.008; 60 months 0.95 vs 0.92; P = .006; 96 months 0.97 vs 0.95; P = .001). Decision curve analysis showed that all scores had modest net benefit for ruling-out advanced fibrosis at the risk threshold of 5% to 10% where advanced fibrosis was absent. At the risk threshold of 5% of false negatives or false positives in LRE at 36, 60, 96, and 120 months, AGILE 3+ outperformed both FIB-4 and LSM for ruling out LRE. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on resource availability, clinical setting, and the risk scenarios, AGILE 3+ is an accurate and valid alternative to FIB-4 and LSM for the noninvasive assessment of disease severity and prognosis in patients with NAFLD.
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Diagnóstico por Imagen de Elasticidad , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Humanos , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/diagnóstico , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/epidemiología , Biomarcadores , Hígado/diagnóstico por imagen , Hígado/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrosis Hepática/patología , Fibrosis , Curva ROC , Biopsia , Diagnóstico por Imagen de Elasticidad/métodosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Programmed cell death 1/programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-1/PDL-1) axis has been reported to modulate liver inflammation and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined whether the PDCD1 variation is associated with NAFLD severity in individuals with liver biopsy. METHODS: We examined the impact of PDCD1 gene variants on HCC, as robust severe liver disease phenotype in UK Biobank participants. The strongest genetic association with the rs13023138 G>C variation was subsequently tested for association with liver damage in 2889 individuals who underwent liver biopsy for suspected nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Hepatic transcriptome was examined by RNA-Seq in a subset of NAFLD individuals (n = 121). Transcriptomic and deconvolution analyses were performed to identify biological pathways modulated by the risk allele. RESULTS: The rs13023138 C>G showed the most robust association with HCC in UK Biobank (p = 5.28E-4, OR = 1.32, 95% CI [1.1, 1.5]). In the liver biopsy cohort, rs13023138 G allele was independently associated with severe steatosis (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34; p = .01), NASH (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.37; p < .001) and advanced fibrosis (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.50; p = .007). At deconvolution analysis, rs13023138 G>C allele was linked to higher hepatic representation of M1 macrophages, paralleled by upregulation of pathways related to inflammation and higher expression of CXCR6. CONCLUSIONS: The PDCD1 rs13023138 G allele was associated with HCC development in the general population and with liver disease severity in patients at high risk of NASH.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Humanos , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/patología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patología , Hígado/patología , Inflamación/patología , Apoptosis , Cirrosis Hepática/complicacionesRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The benefit of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against HCV following successful treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. This meta-analysis of individual patient data assessed HCC recurrence risk following DAA administration. DESIGN: We pooled the data of 977 consecutive patients from 21 studies of HCV-related cirrhosis and HCC, who achieved complete radiological response after surgical/locoregional treatments and received DAAs (DAA group). Recurrence or death risk was expressed as HCC recurrence or death per 100 person-years (100PY). Propensity score-matched patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n=328) served as DAA-unexposed controls (no-DAA group). Risk factors for HCC recurrence were identified using random-effects Poisson. RESULTS: Recurrence rate and death risk per 100PY in DAA-treated patients were 20 (95% CI 13.9 to 29.8, I2=74.6%) and 5.7 (2.5 to 15.3, I2=54.3), respectively. Predictive factors for recurrence were alpha-fetoprotein logarithm (relative risk (RR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.19; p=0.01, per 1 log of ng/mL), HCC recurrence history pre-DAA initiation (RR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16; p<0.001), performance status (2 vs 0, RR=4.35, 95% CI 1.54 to 11.11; 2 vs 1, RR=3.7, 95% CI 1.3 to 11.11; p=0.01) and tumour burden pre-HCC treatment (multifocal vs solitary nodule, RR=1.75, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.43; p<0.001). No significant difference was observed in RR between the DAA-exposed and DAA-unexposed groups in propensity score-matched patients (RR=0.64, 95% CI 0.37 to 1.1; p=0.1). CONCLUSION: Effects of DAA exposure on HCC recurrence risk remain inconclusive. Active clinical and radiological follow-up of patients with HCC after HCV eradication with DAA is justified.
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Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiología , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/terapia , Neoplasias Hepáticas/epidemiología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/terapia , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/epidemiología , Humanos , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/diagnóstico , Puntaje de PropensiónRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Noninvasive criteria to predict the progression of low-risk esophageal varices (EV) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) criteria for EV progression compared with elastography-based criteria (Baveno VI, Expanded Baveno VI, and Baveno VII-HCV criteria). METHODS: All consecutive patients observed at 3 referral centers with compensated HCV cirrhosis with or without F1 EV who achieved sustained virological response by DAAs were classified at last esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDS) as RESIST-HCV low risk (i.e., low probability of high-risk varices [HRV]) if platelets were >120 × 10 9 /L and serum albumin >3.6 g/dL or RESIST-HCV high risk (i.e., high probability of HRV) if platelets were <120 × 10 9 /L or serum albumin <3.6 g/dL. The primary outcome was the progression to HRV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis of noninvasive criteria were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 353 patients in Child-Pugh class A (mean age 67.2 years, 53.8% males). During a mean follow-up of 44.2 months, 34 patients (9.6%, 95% CI 6.7%-13.5%) developed HRV. At the last EGDS, 178 patients (50.4%) were RESIST-low risk, and 175 (49.6%) were RESIST-high risk. RESIST-HCV criteria showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75), correctly sparing the highest number of EGDS (54.3%), with the lowest false-positive rate (45.7%), compared with elastography-based criteria. Decision curve analysis showed that RESIST-HCV had higher clinical utility than elastography-based criteria. DISCUSSION: Biochemical-based RESIST-HCV criteria are useful to easily predict HRV development after HCV eradication by DAAs in patients with compensated cirrhosis and low-risk EV.
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Diagnóstico por Imagen de Elasticidad , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas , Hepatitis C Crónica , Masculino , Humanos , Anciano , Femenino , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/diagnóstico , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/etiología , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/tratamiento farmacológico , Hepacivirus , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Hepatitis C Crónica/complicaciones , Hepatitis C Crónica/tratamiento farmacológico , Recuento de Plaquetas , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Albúmina SéricaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND & AIMS: NAFLD patients usually have an increase in AST/ALT levels, but cholestasis can also be observed. We aimed to assess in subjects with NAFLD the impact of the (cholestatic) C pattern on the likelihood of developing major liver-related outcomes (MALO). METHODS: Five hundred and eighty-two consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD or a clinical diagnosis of NAFLD-related compensated cirrhosis were classified as hepatocellular (H), C and mixed (M) patterns, by using the formula (ALT/ALT Upper Limit of Normal-ULN)/(ALP/ALP ULN). MALO were recorded during follow-up. An external cohort of 1281 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients was enrolled as validation set. RESULTS: H, M and C patterns were found in 153 (26.3%), 272 (46.7%) and 157 (27%) patients respectively. During a median follow-up of 78 months, only 1 (0.6%) patient with H pattern experienced MALO, whilst 15 (5.5%) and 38 (24.2%) patients in M and C groups had MALO. At multivariate Cox regression analysis, age >55 years (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.17-5.54; p = .01), platelets <150 000/mmc (HR 0.14, 95% CI 0.06-0.32; p < .001), albumin <4 g/L(HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.35-1.08; p = .09), C versus M pattern (HR 7.86, 95% CI 1.03-60.1; p = .04), C versus H pattern(HR 12.1, 95% CI 1.61-90.9; p = .01) and fibrosis F3-F4(HR 35.8, 95% CI 4.65-275.2; p < .001) were independent risk factors for MALO occurrence. C versus M pattern(HR 14.3, 95% CI 1.90-105.6; p = .008) and C versus H pattern (HR 15.6, 95% CI 2.10-115.1; p = .0068) were confirmed independently associated with MALO occurrence in the validation set. The immunohistochemical analysis found a significantly higher prevalence of moderate-high-grade ductular metaplasia combined with low-grade ductular proliferation in C pattern when compared with the biochemical H pattern. Gene expression analysis showed a lower expression of NR1H3, RXRα and VCAM1 in patients with the C pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of a cholestatic pattern in patients with NAFLD predicts a higher risk of MALO independently from other features of liver disease.
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Colestasis , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Biopsia , Colestasis/complicaciones , Fibrosis , Humanos , Hígado/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were to quantify the histological improvement and its risk factors in patients with NASH enrolled in the placebo arms of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and to indirectly compare the effect of several investigational drugs for NASH on validated histological outcomes. DATA SYNTHESIS: A comprehensive search was conducted to detect phase 2 and 3 RCTs comparing pharmacological interventions in patients with NASH. According to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations, primary outcomes included: 1) NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis; 2) At least 1-point reduction in fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Meta-analysis and meta-regressions were conducted on placebo arms, while network meta-analysis was performed on intervention arms. A total of 15 RCTs met the eligibility criteria. The meta-analysis on placebo arms showed a pooled estimate rate of 17% (95%C.I. 12%-23%;I2 = 86%; p < 0.01) for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis and of 21% (95%C.I. 13%-31%;I2 = 84%; p < 0.01) for ≥1stage improvement of fibrosis without worsening of NASH. Phase 3 (vs Phase 2)RCTs, older age and higher AST levels were significantly associated with progression of liver disease by univariate meta-regression. At network meta-analysis, Semaglutide (P-score 0.906), Pioglitazione alone (score 0.890) and plus Vitamin E (0.826) had the highest probability of being ranked the most effective intervention for NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis, while Aldafermin (0.776), Lanifibranor (0.773) and Obeticholic acid (0.771) had the highest probability to achieve ≥1 stage of fibrosis improvement without worsening of NASH. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the heterogeneity of histological progression of untreated patients with NASH and provides evidence to stratify patients according to identified risk factors in future RCTs of combination therapies. PROSPERO CRD42021287205.
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Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Drogas en Investigación/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Hígado/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrosis Hepática/tratamiento farmacológico , Metaanálisis en Red , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/diagnóstico , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/tratamiento farmacológico , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Vitamina ERESUMEN
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with advanced fibrosis related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at risk of developing hepatic and extrahepatic complications. We investigated whether, in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and their changes can be used to identify patients at risk for liver-related and extrahepatic events. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with NAFLD (n = 1039) with a histologic diagnosis of F3-F4 fibrosis and/or LSMs>10 kPa, followed for at least 6 months, from medical centers in 6 countries. LSMs were made by FibroScan using the M or XL probe and recorded at baseline and within 1 year from the last follow-up examination. Differences between follow up and baseline LSMs were categorized as: improvement (reduction of more than 20%), stable (reduction of 20% to an increase of 20%), impairment (an increase of 20% or more). We recorded hepatic events (such as liver decompensation, ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and overall and liver-related mortality during a median follow-up time of 35 months (interquartile range, 19-63 months). RESULTS: Based on Cox regression analysis, baseline LSM was independently associated with occurrence of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < .001), HCC (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P = .003), and liver-related death (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03; P = .005). In 533 patients with available LSMs during the follow-up period, change in LSM was independently associated with hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.51; P = .04), HCC (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.01-3.02; P = .04), overall mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11-2.69; P = .01), and liver-related mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10-3.38; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and change in LSM are associated with risk of liver-related events and mortality.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Diagnóstico por Imagen de Elasticidad , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/epidemiología , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/patología , Várices Esofágicas y Gástricas/patología , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/patología , Humanos , Hígado/diagnóstico por imagen , Hígado/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/patología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patología , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/complicaciones , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/patología , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Real-world evidence on the course of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) chronic liver disease after Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) obtained with direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) are still limited, and the effects on mortality remain unclear. We evaluated the post-treatment survival of 4307 patients in the RESIST-HCV cohort (mean age 66.3 ± 11.6 years, 56.9% males, 24.7% chronic hepatitis, 66.9% Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 8.4% Child-Pugh B cirrhosis) treated with DAAs between March 2015 and December 2016 and followed for a median of 73 weeks (range 16-152). Proportional cause-specific hazard regression for competing risks was used to evaluate the survival and to assess the predictors of liver and cardiovascular death. Overall, 94.7% of patients achieved SVR while 5.3% were HCV RNA-positive at last follow-up. Sixty-three patients (1.4%) died during the observation period. SVR was associated with a decreased risk of liver mortality (hazard ratio,HR0.09, beta -2.37, p < .001). Also, platelet count (HR 0.99, beta-0.01, p = .007) and albumin value (HR 0.26, beta -1.36 p = .001) were associated with liver mortality by competing risk analysis. SVR was associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality regardless of presence of cirrhosis (HR 0.07, beta-2.67, p < .001). Presence of diabetes (HR 3.45, beta 1.24, p = .014) and chronic kidney disease class ≥3 (HR 3.60, beta 1.28, p = 0.016) were two factors independently associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. Patients with SVR to a DAA therapy have a better liver and cardiovascular survival, and the effects of HCV eradication are most evident in patients with compensated liver disease.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Hepatitis C Crónica , Hepatitis C , Anciano , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Femenino , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C/tratamiento farmacológico , Hepatitis C Crónica/complicaciones , Hepatitis C Crónica/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided biliary drainage is becoming an option for palliation of malignant biliary obstruction. Lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMS) are replacing self-expandable metal stents (SEMS). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of LAMS and SEMS for EUS-guided choledochoduodenostomy (EUS-CDS). METHODS: A meta-analysis was performed using PRISMA protocols. Electronic databases were searched for studies on EUS-CDS. The primary outcome was clinical success. Secondary outcomes were technical success, reintervention, and adverse events. We used the random effects model with the DerSimonian-Laird estimation, and the results were depicted using forest plots. Subgroup analyses were also performed with data stratified by selected variable. RESULTS: Overall, 31 studies (820 patients) were included. The pooled rates of clinical and technical success were 93.6â% (95â% confidence interval [CI] 88.6â%-96.5â%) and 94.8â% (95â%CI 90.2â%-97.3â%) for LAMS, and 91.7â% (95â%CI 88.1â%-94.2â%) and 92.7â% (95â%CI 89.9â%-94.9â%) for SEMS, respectively. The pooled rates of adverse events were 17.1â% (95â%CI 12.5â%-22.8â%) for LAMS and 18.3â% (95â%CI 14.3â%-23.0â%) for SEMS. The pooled rates of reintervention were 10.9â% (95â%CI 7.7â%-15.3â%) for LAMS and 13.9â% (95â%CI 9.6â%-19.7â%) for SEMS.âSubgroup analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis showed that LAMS and SEMS are comparable in terms of efficacy for EUS-CDS. Clinical and technical success, post-procedure adverse events, and reintervention rates were similar between LAMS and SEMS use; however, adverse events require further investigation.
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Coledocostomía , Stents Metálicos Autoexpandibles , Coledocostomía/efectos adversos , Drenaje , Endosonografía , Humanos , Stents Metálicos Autoexpandibles/efectos adversos , Stents/efectos adversos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Ultrasonografía IntervencionalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND& AIMS: Time to progression (TTP) and progression-free survival (PFS) are commonly used as surrogate endpoints in oncology trials. We aimed to assess the surrogacy relationship of TTP and PFS with overall survival (OS) in studies of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) by innovative methods. METHODS: A search of databases for studies of TACE for u-HCC reporting both OS and TTP or PFS was performed. Individual patient data were extracted from TTP/PFS and OS Kaplan-Meier curves of TACE arms. Pooled median TTP and OS were obtained from random-effect model. The surrogate relationships of hazard ratios (HRs) and median TTP for OS were evaluated by the coefficient of determination R2 . RESULTS: We identified 13 studies comparing TACE vs systemic therapy or vs TACE plus systemic therapy and including 1932 TACE-treated patients. Pooled median OS was 11.2 months (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 7.9-17.8), and pooled median TTP was 5.4 months (95%CI 3.8-8.0). Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for both outcomes. The correlation between HR TTP and HR OS was moderate (R2 = 0.65. 95%CI 0.08-0.81). R2 value was 0.04 (95%CI 0.00-0.35) between median TTP and median OS. CONCLUSION: In studies of TACE for u-HCC, the surrogate relationship of radiology-based endpoints with OS is moderate. Multiple endpoints including hepatic decompensation, macrovascular invasion and extrahepatic spread are needed for future trials comparing systemic therapies or combination of TACE with systemic therapies vs TACE alone.
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Quimioembolización Terapéutica , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Radiología , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/diagnóstico por imagen , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/patología , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/terapia , Terapia Combinada , Progresión de la Enfermedad , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/diagnóstico por imagen , Neoplasias Hepáticas/patología , Neoplasias Hepáticas/terapia , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Farnesoid X receptor (FXR) plays a key role in bile acid and lipid homeostasis. Experimental evidence suggests that it can modulate liver damage related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We examined the impact of the NR1H4 rs35724 G>C, encoding for FXR, on liver damage in a large cohort of patients at risk of steatohepatitis. METHODS: We considered 2,660 consecutive individuals at risk of steatohepatitis with liver histology. The rs35724 G>C polymorphisms were genotyped by TaqMan assays. Gene expression was evaluated by RNASeq in a subset of patients (n = 124). RESULTS: The NR1H4 rs35724 CC genotype, after adjusting for clinic-metabolic and genetic confounders and for enrolling centre, was protective against severity of steatosis (GG vs CC OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.95; P = .01), steatohepatitis (GG vs CC OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.47-0.83; P = .001) and severity of fibrosis (GG vs CC OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.67-0.98; P = .04). The C allele was associated with higher total circulating cholesterol (P = .01). Patients carrying the NR1H4 rs35724 C allele had significantly higher hepatic mRNA levels of FXR and were associated with higher hepatic FGFR4 and Cyp39A1 that are in turn involved in bile acid synthesis. CONCLUSIONS: Increased hepatic FXR expression due to the NR1H4 rs35724 C allele is linked to higher serum cholesterol but protects against steatosis, steatohepatitis and liver fibrosis. The translational relevance of these results for patient risk stratification and FXR-targeted therapy warrants further investigation.
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Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Receptores Citoplasmáticos y Nucleares/genética , Ácidos y Sales Biliares , Humanos , Hígado/patología , Cirrosis Hepática/genética , Cirrosis Hepática/patología , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/genética , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/patología , Receptor Tipo 4 de Factor de Crecimiento de Fibroblastos , Esteroide HidroxilasasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have an increased risk for liver-related complications, such as decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and death; the severity of liver fibrosis and metabolic comorbidities are the main risk factors. A single nucleotide polymorphism in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing-3 (PNPLA3) gene is associated with higher prevalence of liver damage and HCC, but there are no data from prospective studies of outcomes of patients with this polymorphism. We investigated whether the common rs738409 variant in PNPLA3 gene associates with the occurrence of liver-related events and death in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD. METHODS: We followed 471 consecutive individuals at a hospital in Italy with a diagnosis of NAFLD based on histologic factors or a diagnosis of compensated NAFLD-related cirrhosis based on clinical factors for at least 6 months, from March 2004 through December 2018. We collected data on the occurrence of hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes, including decompensation and HCC, cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers, and overall and liver-related death. We detected the rs738409 G>C polymorphism in DNA from patient blood samples using the TaqMan assay. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 64.6 months (range 6.1-175 months) 26 cases of decompensation, 13 HCCs, and 16 deaths (12 liver-related) were recorded. All liver-related events, including liver-related death, occurred in patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The prevalence of PNPLA3 rs738409 GG, GT, and TT genotypes was 31.8%, 45.6%, and 22.6%, respectively. After adjusting for clinical, metabolic, and histologic risk factors, PNPLA3 C>G variant was associated with a higher risk of decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.03-4.29; P = .04), HCC (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.01-7.26; P = .04), and liver-related death (HR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.18-11.2; P = .02) by multivariate Cox regression analysis. In the subgroup of 162 patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis, we confirmed the independent association between the PNPLA3 variant and decompensation (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.01-3.97; P = .04), HCC (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.02-7.13; P = .04), and liver-related death (HR, 3.64, 95% CI, 1.18-11.2; P = .02). We found no association between PNPLA3 genotype and cardiovascular events, extrahepatic cancers, or overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NAFLD carrying PNPLA3 rs738409 G>C variant are at higher risk of liver-related events and death.