Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error.

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity with changes in aerosol microenvironment.

Understanding the factors that influence the airborne survival of viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in aerosols is important for identifying routes of transmission and the value of various mitigation strategies for preventing transmission. We present measurements of the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol droplets (∼5 to 10 µm equilibrated radius) over timescales spanning 5 s to 20 min using an instrument to probe survival in a small population of droplets (typically 5 to 10) containing ∼1 virus/droplet. Measurements of airborne infectivity change are coupled with a detailed physicochemical analysis of the airborne droplets containing the virus. A decrease in infectivity to ∼10% of the starting value was observable for SARS-CoV-2 over 20 min, with a large proportion of the loss occurring within the first 5 min after aerosolization. The initial rate of infectivity loss was found to correlate with physical transformation of the equilibrating droplet; salts within the droplets crystallize at relative humidities (RHs) below 50%, leading to a near-instant loss of infectivity in 50 to 60% of the virus. However, at 90% RH, the droplet remains homogenous and aqueous, and the viral stability is sustained for the first 2 min, beyond which it decays to only 10% remaining infectious after 10 min. The loss of infectivity at high RH is consistent with an elevation in the pH of the droplets, caused by volatilization of CO2 from bicarbonate buffer within the droplet. Four different variants of SARS-CoV-2 were compared and found to have a similar degree of airborne stability at both high and low RH.

Association of ABO and Rhesus blood groups with severe outcomes from non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection: A prospective observational cohort study in Bristol, UK 2020-2022.

Despite significant global morbidity associated with respiratory infection, there is a paucity of data examining the association between severity of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection and blood group. We analysed a prospective cohort of adults hospitalised in Bristol, UK, from 1 August 2020 to 31 July 2022, including patients with acute respiratory infection (pneumonia [n = 1934] and non-pneumonic lower respiratory tract infection [NP-LRTI] [n = 1184]), a negative SARS-CoV-2 test and known blood group status. The likelihood of cardiovascular complication, survival and hospital admission length was assessed using regression models with group O and RhD-negative status as reference groups. Group A and RhD-positive were over-represented in both pneumonia and NP-LRTI compared to a first-time donor population (p < 0.05 in all); contrastingly, group O was under-represented. ABO group did not influence cardiovascular complication risk; however, RhD-positive patients with pneumonia had a reduced odds ratio (OR) for cardiovascular complications (OR = 0.77 [95% CI = 0.59-0.98]). Compared to group O, group A individuals with NP-LRTI were more likely to be discharged within 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.17 [95% CI = 1.03-1.33]), while group B with pneumonia was less likely (HR = 0.8 [95% CI = 0.66-0.96]). This analysis provides some evidence that blood group status may influence clinical outcome following respiratory infection, with group A having increased risk of hospitalisation and RhD-positive patients having reduced cardiovascular complications.

An assessment of the airborne longevity of group A Streptococcus.

Group A streptococcus (GAS) infections result in more than 500 000 deaths annually. Despite mounting evidence for airborne transmission of GAS, little is known about its stability in aerosol. Measurements of GAS airborne stability were carried out using the Controlled Electrodynamic Levitation and Extraction of Bioaerosols onto a Substrate (CELEBS) instrument. CELEBS measurements with two different isolates of GAS suggest that it is aerostable, with approximately 70 % of bacteria remaining viable after 20 min of levitation at 50 % relative humidity (RH), with lower survival as RH was reduced. GAS airborne viability loss was driven primarily by desiccation and efflorescence (i.e. salt crystallization), with high pH also potentially playing a role, given reduced survival in bicarbonate containing droplet compositions. At low enough RH for efflorescence to occur, a greater proportion of organic components in the droplet appeared to protect the bacteria from efflorescence. These first insights into the aerosol stability of GAS indicate that airborne transmission of these respiratory tract bacteria may occur, and that both the composition of the droplet containing the bacteria, and the RH of the air affect the duration of bacterial survival in this environment. Future studies will explore a broader range of droplet and air compositions and include a larger selection of GAS strains.

High-resolution genomics identifies pneumococcal diversity and persistence of vaccine types in children with community-acquired pneumonia in the UK and Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a global cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and invasive disease in children. The CAP-IT trial (grant No. 13/88/11; https://www.capitstudy.org.uk/ ) collected nasopharyngeal swabs from children discharged from hospitals with clinically diagnosed CAP, and found no differences in pneumococci susceptibility between higher and lower antibiotic doses and shorter and longer durations of oral amoxicillin treatment. Here, we studied in-depth the genomic epidemiology of pneumococcal (vaccine) serotypes and their antibiotic resistance profiles. METHODS: Three-hundred and ninety pneumococci cultured from 1132 nasopharyngeal swabs from 718 children were whole-genome sequenced (Illumina) and tested for susceptibility to penicillin and amoxicillin. Genome heterogeneity analysis was performed using long-read sequenced isolates (PacBio, n = 10) and publicly available sequences. RESULTS: Among 390 unique pneumococcal isolates, serotypes 15B/C, 11 A, 15 A and 23B1 were most prevalent (n = 145, 37.2%). PCV13 serotypes 3, 19A, and 19F were also identified (n = 25, 6.4%). STs associated with 19A and 19F demonstrated high genome variability, in contrast to serotype 3 (n = 13, 3.3%) that remained highly stable over a 20-year period. Non-susceptibility to penicillin (n = 61, 15.6%) and amoxicillin (n = 10, 2.6%) was low among the pneumococci analysed here and was independent of treatment dosage and duration. However, all 23B1 isolates (n = 27, 6.9%) were penicillin non-susceptible. This serotype was also identified in ST177, which is historically associated with the PCV13 serotype 19F and penicillin susceptibility, indicating a potential capsule-switch event. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that amoxicillin use does not drive pneumococcal serotype prevalence among children in the UK, and prompts consideration of PCVs with additional serotype coverage that are likely to further decrease CAP in this target population. Genotype 23B1 represents the convergence of a non-vaccine genotype with penicillin non-susceptibility and might provide a persistence strategy for ST types historically associated with vaccine serotypes. This highlights the need for continued genomic surveillance.

Syndromic case definitions for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults.

BACKGROUND: Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic (symptom-based) case ascertainment in older (≥ 65y) as compared to younger adults (< 65y). METHODS: We included adults (≥ 18y) with confirmed LRTI admitted to two acute care Trusts in Bristol, UK from 1st August 2020- 31st July 2022. Logistic regression was used to assess whether age ≥ 65y reduced the probability of meeting syndromic LRTI case definitions, using patients' symptoms at admission. We also calculated relative symptom frequencies (log-odds ratios) and evaluated how symptoms were clustered across different age groups. RESULTS: Of 17,620 clinically confirmed LRTI cases, 8,487 (48.1%) had symptoms meeting the case definition. Compared to those not meeting the definition these cases were younger, had less severe illness and were less likely to have received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or to have active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prevalence of dementia/cognitive impairment and levels of comorbidity were lower in this group. After controlling for sex, dementia and comorbidities, age ≥ 65y significantly reduced the probability of meeting the case definition (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI:0.63-0.71). Cases aged ≥ 65y were less likely to present with fever and LRTI-specific symptoms (e.g., pleurisy, sputum) than younger cases, and those aged ≥ 85y were characterised by lack of cough but frequent confusion and falls. CONCLUSIONS: LRTI symptom profiles changed considerably with age in this hospitalised cohort. Standard screening protocols may fail to detect older and frailer cases of LRTI based on their symptoms.

Information needs of ethnically diverse, vaccine-hesitant parents during decision-making about the HPV vaccine for their adolescent child: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The English schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme has the potential to eliminate HPV-related cancers if high uptake is achieved. However, unmet information needs among some parents may contribute to persisting lower uptake among minority ethnic groups. Through this study we aimed to understand the information needs of vaccine-hesitant, ethnically diverse parents during decision-making about the HPV vaccine for their adolescent child, to inform the future development of tailored communication materials. METHODS: Recruitment was facilitated thorough healthcare and community organisations within London and the South West of England. Semi-structured interviews took place between April and August 2023. Thematic analysis was undertaken, assisted by NVivo software. RESULTS: Of the 29 parents interviewed, the majority were mothers (79%), belonged to a minority ethnic group (88%), and had an adolescent child unvaccinated against HPV (72%). Five of the interviews were undertaken in the participants' primary language with translation support. Most parents interviewed had limited knowledge about the HPV vaccine and appeared conflicted as to whether vaccines could offer benefits to health. Misunderstanding around the potential of developing serious side-effects (e.g. fertility issues, developing cancer) were factors that could negatively impact decision-making by parents. Stigma associated with the sexual transmissibility of HPV did not always negatively impact decision-making. However, some parents chose not to vaccinate on the basis of perceptions of low risk and a preference to provide education about sexual behaviours to their adolescent child. CONCLUSIONS: Tailoring communication materials to address misunderstandings could support informed decision-making by vaccine hesitant parents for their adolescent children to be vaccinated against HPV. Future communication materials about the HPV vaccine should highlight the benefits of protection against cancer to increase parents' motivation for protect their adolescent child; provide accurate convincing information in relation to the excellent safety profile; and emphasise the importance of providing HPV vaccine at the recommended age, all alongside communicating the universality and commonality of HPV infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

Immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of heterologous COVID-19 primary vaccination incorporating mRNA, viral-vector, and protein-adjuvant vaccines in the UK (Com-COV2): a single-blind, randomised, phase 2, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Given the importance of flexible use of different COVID-19 vaccines within the same schedule to facilitate rapid deployment, we studied mixed priming schedules incorporating an adenoviral-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 [ChAd], AstraZeneca), two mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 [BNT], Pfizer-BioNTech, and mRNA-1273 [m1273], Moderna) and a nanoparticle vaccine containing SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and Matrix-M adjuvant (NVX-CoV2373 [NVX], Novavax). METHODS: Com-COV2 is a single-blind, randomised, non-inferiority trial in which adults aged 50 years and older, previously immunised with a single dose of ChAd or BNT in the community, were randomly assigned (in random blocks of three and six) within these cohorts in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive a second dose intramuscularly (8-12 weeks after the first dose) with the homologous vaccine, m1273, or NVX. The primary endpoint was the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of serum SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG concentrations measured by ELISA in heterologous versus homologous schedules at 28 days after the second dose, with a non-inferiority criterion of the GMR above 0·63 for the one-sided 98·75% CI. The primary analysis was on the per-protocol population, who were seronegative at baseline. Safety analyses were done for all participants who received a dose of study vaccine. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 27841311. FINDINGS: Between April 19 and May 14, 2021, 1072 participants were enrolled at a median of 9·4 weeks after receipt of a single dose of ChAd (n=540, 47% female) or BNT (n=532, 40% female). In ChAd-primed participants, geometric mean concentration (GMC) 28 days after a boost of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG in recipients of ChAd/m1273 (20 114 ELISA laboratory units [ELU]/mL [95% CI 18 160 to 22 279]) and ChAd/NVX (5597 ELU/mL [4756 to 6586]) was non-inferior to that of ChAd/ChAd recipients (1971 ELU/mL [1718 to 2262]) with a GMR of 10·2 (one-sided 98·75% CI 8·4 to ∞) for ChAd/m1273 and 2·8 (2·2 to ∞) for ChAd/NVX, compared with ChAd/ChAd. In BNT-primed participants, non-inferiority was shown for BNT/m1273 (GMC 22 978 ELU/mL [95% CI 20 597 to 25 636]) but not for BNT/NVX (8874 ELU/mL [7391 to 10 654]), compared with BNT/BNT (16 929 ELU/mL [15 025 to 19 075]) with a GMR of 1·3 (one-sided 98·75% CI 1·1 to ∞) for BNT/m1273 and 0·5 (0·4 to ∞) for BNT/NVX, compared with BNT/BNT; however, NVX still induced an 18-fold rise in GMC 28 days after vaccination. There were 15 serious adverse events, none considered related to immunisation. INTERPRETATION: Heterologous second dosing with m1273, but not NVX, increased transient systemic reactogenicity compared with homologous schedules. Multiple vaccines are appropriate to complete primary immunisation following priming with BNT or ChAd, facilitating rapid vaccine deployment globally and supporting recognition of such schedules for vaccine certification. FUNDING: UK Vaccine Task Force, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), and National Institute for Health Research. NVX vaccine was supplied for use in the trial by Novavax.

Meningococcal B Vaccine and Meningococcal Carriage in Adolescents in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The meningococcal group B vaccine 4CMenB is a new, recombinant protein-based vaccine that is licensed to protect against invasive group B meningococcal disease. However, its role in preventing transmission and, therefore, inducing population (herd) protection is uncertain. METHODS: We used cluster randomization to assign, according to school, students in years 10 to 12 (age, 15 to 18 years) in South Australia to receive 4CMenB vaccination either at baseline (intervention) or at 12 months (control). The primary outcome was oropharyngeal carriage of disease-causing Neisseria meningitidis (group A, B, C, W, X, or Y) in students in years 10 and 11, as identified by polymerase-chain-reaction assays for PorA (encoding porin protein A) and N. meningitidis genogroups. Secondary outcomes included carriage prevalence and acquisition of all N. meningitidis and individual disease-causing genogroups. Risk factors for carriage were assessed at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 237 schools participated. During April through June 2017, a total of 24,269 students in years 10 and 11 and 10,220 students in year 12 were enrolled. At 12 months, there was no difference in the prevalence of carriage of disease-causing N. meningitidis between the vaccination group (2.55%; 326 of 12,746) and the control group (2.52%; 291 of 11,523) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.31; P = 0.85). There were no significant differences in the secondary carriage outcomes. At baseline, the risk factors for carriage of disease-causing N. meningitidis included later year of schooling (adjusted odds ratio for year 12 vs. year 10, 2.75; 95% CI, 2.03 to 3.73), current upper respiratory tract infection (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.63), cigarette smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.83), water-pipe smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 to 2.54), attending pubs or clubs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.86), and intimate kissing (adjusted odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.05). No vaccine safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Among Australian adolescents, the 4CMenB vaccine had no discernible effect on the carriage of disease-causing meningococci, including group B. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03089086.).

Relative vaccine effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 boosters in people aged at least 75 years during the spring-summer (monovalent vaccine) and autumn-winter (bivalent vaccine) booster campaigns: a prospective test negative case-control study, United Kingdom, 2022.

BackgroundUnderstanding the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of new COVID-19 vaccine formulations against SARS-CoV-2 infection is a public health priority. A precise analysis of the rVE of monovalent and bivalent boosters given during the 2022 spring-summer and autumn-winter campaigns, respectively, in a defined population remains of interest.AimWe assessed rVE against hospitalisation for the spring-summer (fourth vs third monovalent mRNA vaccine doses) and autumn-winter (fifth BA.1/ancestral bivalent vs fourth monovalent mRNA vaccine dose) boosters.MethodsWe performed a prospective single-centre test-negative design case-control study in ≥ 75-year-old people hospitalised with COVID-19 or other acute respiratory disease. We conducted regression analyses controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, patient comorbidities, community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, vaccine brand and time between baseline dose and hospitalisation.ResultsWe included 682 controls and 182 cases in the spring-summer booster analysis and 572 controls and 152 cases in the autumn-winter booster analysis. A monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fourth dose showed 46.6% rVE (95% confidence interval (CI): 13.9-67.1) vs those not fully boosted. A bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fifth dose had 46.7% rVE (95% CI: 18.0-65.1), compared with a fourth monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.ConclusionsBoth fourth monovalent and fifth BA.1/ancestral mRNA bivalent COVID-19 vaccine doses demonstrated benefit as a booster in older adults. Bivalent mRNA boosters offered similar protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection to monovalent mRNA boosters given earlier in the year. These findings support immunisation programmes in several European countries that advised the use of BA.1/ancestral bivalent booster doses.

Defective Monocyte Enzymatic Function and an Inhibitory Immune Phenotype in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Exposed Uninfected African Infants in the Era of Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants are a rapidly expanding population in sub-Saharan Africa and are highly susceptible to encapsulated bacterial disease in the first year of life. The mechanism of this increased risk is still poorly understood. We investigated whether human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-exposure dysregulates HEU immunity, vaccine-antibody production, and human herpes virus amplify this effect. METHODS: Thirty-four HIV-infected and 44 HIV-uninfected pregnant women were recruited into the birth cohort and observed up to 6 weeks of age; and then a subsequent 43 HIV-infected and 61 HIV-uninfected mother-infant pairs were recruited into a longitudinal infant cohort at either: 5-7 to 14-15; or 14-15 to 18-23 weeks of age. We compared monocyte function, innate and adaptive immune cell phenotype, and vaccine-induced antibody responses between HEU and HIV-unexposed uninfected (HU) infants. RESULTS: We demonstrate (1) altered monocyte phagosomal function and B-cell subset homeostasis and (2) lower vaccine-induced anti-Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and anti-tetanus toxoid immunoglobulin G titers in HEU compared with HU infants. Human herpes virus infection was similar between HEU and HU infants. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of antiretroviral therapy-mediated viral suppression, HIV exposure may dysregulate monocyte and B-cell function, during the vulnerable period of immune maturation. This may contribute to the high rates of invasive bacterial disease and pneumonia in HEU infants.

B Part of It School Leaver Study: A Repeat Cross-Sectional Study to Assess the Impact of Increasing Coverage With Meningococcal B (4CMenB) Vaccine on Carriage of Neisseria meningitidis.

BACKGROUND: Recombinant protein-based vaccines targeting serogroup B meningococci protect against invasive disease but impacts on carriage are uncertain. This study assessed carriage prevalence of disease-associated meningococci in 2018-2020 as the proportion of vaccinated adolescents increased following introduction of a school-based 4CMenB immunization program. METHODS: Eligible participants who completed high school (aged 17-25) in South Australia in the previous year had an oropharyngeal swab taken and completed a risk factor questionnaire. Disease-associated meningococci (genogroups A, B, C, W, X, Y) were detected by meningococcal and genogroup-specific polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The analysis included 4104 participants in 2018, 2690 in 2019, and 1338 in 2020. The proportion vaccinated with 4CMenB increased from 43% in 2018, to 78% in 2019, and 76% in 2020. Carriage prevalence of disease-associated meningococci in 2018 was 225/4104 (5.5%). There was little difference between carriage prevalence in 2019 (134/2690, 5.0%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-1.05) and 2020 (68/1338, 5.1%; aOR, 0.82; 95% CI, .57-1.17) compared to 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Increased 4CMenB uptake in adolescents was not associated with decline in carriage of disease-associated meningococci. 4CMenB immunization programs should focus on direct (individual) protection for groups at greatest risk of disease. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03419533.

Safety and immunogenicity of concomitant administration of COVID-19 vaccines (ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2) with seasonal influenza vaccines in adults in the UK (ComFluCOV): a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 4 trial.

BACKGROUND: Concomitant administration of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines could reduce burden on health-care systems. We aimed to assess the safety of concomitant administration of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 plus an age-appropriate influenza vaccine. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 4 trial, adults in receipt of a single dose of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 were enrolled at 12 UK sites and randomly assigned (1:1) to receive concomitant administration of either an age-appropriate influenza vaccine or placebo alongside their second dose of COVID-19 vaccine. 3 weeks later the group who received placebo received the influenza vaccine, and vice versa. Participants were followed up for 6 weeks. The influenza vaccines were three seasonal, inactivated vaccines (trivalent, MF59C adjuvanted or a cellular or recombinant quadrivalent vaccine). Participants and investigators were masked to the allocation. The primary endpoint was one or more participant-reported solicited systemic reactions in the 7 days after first trial vaccination(s), with a difference of less than 25% considered non-inferior. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. Local and unsolicited systemic reactions and humoral responses were also assessed. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN14391248. FINDINGS: Between April 1 and June 26, 2021, 679 participants were recruited to one of six cohorts, as follows: 129 ChAdOx1 plus cellular quadrivalent influenza vaccine, 139 BNT162b2 plus cellular quadrivalent influenza vaccine, 146 ChAdOx1 plus MF59C adjuvanted, trivalent influenza vaccine, 79 BNT162b2 plus MF59C adjuvanted, trivalent influenza vaccine, 128 ChAdOx1 plus recombinant quadrivalent influenza vaccine, and 58 BNT162b2 plus recombinant quadrivalent influenza vaccine. 340 participants were assigned to concomitant administration of influenza and a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine at day 0 followed by placebo at day 21, and 339 participants were randomly assigned to concomitant administration of placebo and a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine at day 0 followed by influenza vaccine at day 21. Non-inferiority was indicated in four cohorts, as follows: ChAdOx1 plus cellular quadrivalent influenza vaccine (risk difference for influenza vaccine minus placebos -1·29%, 95% CI -14·7 to 12·1), BNT162b2 plus cellular quadrivalent influenza vaccine (6·17%, -6·27 to 18·6), BNT162b2 plus MF59C adjuvanted, trivalent influenza vaccine (-12·9%, -34·2 to 8·37), and ChAdOx1 plus recombinant quadrivalent influenza vaccine (2·53%, -13·3 to 18·3). In the other two cohorts, the upper limit of the 95% CI exceeded the 0·25 non-inferiority margin (ChAdOx1 plus MF59C adjuvanted, trivalent influenza vaccine 10·3%, -5·44 to 26·0; BNT162b2 plus recombinant quadrivalent influenza vaccine 6·75%, -11·8 to 25·3). Most systemic reactions to vaccination were mild or moderate. Rates of local and unsolicited systemic reactions were similar between the randomly assigned groups. One serious adverse event, hospitalisation with severe headache, was considered related to the trial intervention. Immune responses were not adversely affected. INTERPRETATION: Concomitant vaccination with ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 plus an age-appropriate influenza vaccine raises no safety concerns and preserves antibody responses to both vaccines. Concomitant vaccination with both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines over the next immunisation season should reduce the burden on health-care services for vaccine delivery, allowing for timely vaccine administration and protection from COVID-19 and influenza for those in need. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Policy Research Programme.

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/01 (B.1.1.7): an exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7, emerged as the dominant cause of COVID-19 disease in the UK from November, 2020. We report a post-hoc analysis of the efficacy of the adenoviral vector vaccine, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222), against this variant. METHODS: Volunteers (aged ≥18 years) who were enrolled in phase 2/3 vaccine efficacy studies in the UK, and who were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or a meningococcal conjugate control (MenACWY) vaccine, provided upper airway swabs on a weekly basis and also if they developed symptoms of COVID-19 disease (a cough, a fever of 37·8°C or higher, shortness of breath, anosmia, or ageusia). Swabs were tested by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for SARS-CoV-2 and positive samples were sequenced through the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium. Neutralising antibody responses were measured using a live-virus microneutralisation assay against the B.1.1.7 lineage and a canonical non-B.1.1.7 lineage (Victoria). The efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a NAAT positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to vaccine received. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vs MenACWY groups) derived from a robust Poisson regression model. This study is continuing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04400838, and ISRCTN, 15281137. FINDINGS: Participants in efficacy cohorts were recruited between May 31 and Nov 13, 2020, and received booster doses between Aug 3 and Dec 30, 2020. Of 8534 participants in the primary efficacy cohort, 6636 (78%) were aged 18-55 years and 5065 (59%) were female. Between Oct 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2021, 520 participants developed SARS-CoV-2 infection. 1466 NAAT positive nose and throat swabs were collected from these participants during the trial. Of these, 401 swabs from 311 participants were successfully sequenced. Laboratory virus neutralisation activity by vaccine-induced antibodies was lower against the B.1.1.7 variant than against the Victoria lineage (geometric mean ratio 8·9, 95% CI 7·2-11·0). Clinical vaccine efficacy against symptomatic NAAT positive infection was 70·4% (95% CI 43·6-84·5) for B.1.1.7 and 81·5% (67·9-89·4) for non-B.1.1.7 lineages. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed reduced neutralisation activity against the B.1.1.7 variant compared with a non-B.1.1.7 variant in vitro, but the vaccine showed efficacy against the B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midlands NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Safety and immunogenicity of heterologous versus homologous prime-boost schedules with an adenoviral vectored and mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Com-COV): a single-blind, randomised, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Use of heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine schedules could facilitate mass COVID-19 immunisation. However, we have previously reported that heterologous schedules incorporating an adenoviral vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, AstraZeneca; hereafter referred to as ChAd) and an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2, Pfizer-BioNTech; hereafter referred to as BNT) at a 4-week interval are more reactogenic than homologous schedules. Here, we report the safety and immunogenicity of heterologous schedules with the ChAd and BNT vaccines. METHODS: Com-COV is a participant-blinded, randomised, non-inferiority trial evaluating vaccine safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity. Adults aged 50 years and older with no or well controlled comorbidities and no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection by laboratory confirmation were eligible and were recruited at eight sites across the UK. The majority of eligible participants were enrolled into the general cohort (28-day or 84-day prime-boost intervals), who were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1:1:1:1) to receive ChAd/ChAd, ChAd/BNT, BNT/BNT, or BNT/ChAd, administered at either 28-day or 84-day prime-boost intervals. A small subset of eligible participants (n=100) were enrolled into an immunology cohort, who had additional blood tests to evaluate immune responses; these participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to the four schedules (28-day interval only). Participants were masked to the vaccine received but not to the prime-boost interval. The primary endpoint was the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of serum SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG concentration (measured by ELISA) at 28 days after boost, when comparing ChAd/BNT with ChAd/ChAd, and BNT/ChAd with BNT/BNT. The heterologous schedules were considered non-inferior to the approved homologous schedules if the lower limit of the one-sided 97·5% CI of the GMR of these comparisons was greater than 0·63. The primary analysis was done in the per-protocol population, who were seronegative at baseline. Safety analyses were done among participants receiving at least one dose of a study vaccine. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 69254139. FINDINGS: Between Feb 11 and Feb 26, 2021, 830 participants were enrolled and randomised, including 463 participants with a 28-day prime-boost interval, for whom results are reported here. The mean age of participants was 57·8 years (SD 4·7), with 212 (46%) female participants and 117 (25%) from ethnic minorities. At day 28 post boost, the geometric mean concentration of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG in ChAd/BNT recipients (12 906 ELU/mL) was non-inferior to that in ChAd/ChAd recipients (1392 ELU/mL), with a GMR of 9·2 (one-sided 97·5% CI 7·5 to ∞). In participants primed with BNT, we did not show non-inferiority of the heterologous schedule (BNT/ChAd, 7133 ELU/mL) against the homologous schedule (BNT/BNT, 14 080 ELU/mL), with a GMR of 0·51 (one-sided 97·5% CI 0·43 to ∞). Four serious adverse events occurred across all groups, none of which were considered to be related to immunisation. INTERPRETATION: Despite the BNT/ChAd regimen not meeting non-inferiority criteria, the SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG concentrations of both heterologous schedules were higher than that of a licensed vaccine schedule (ChAd/ChAd) with proven efficacy against COVID-19 disease and hospitalisation. Along with the higher immunogenicity of ChAd/BNT compared with ChAD/ChAd, these data support flexibility in the use of heterologous prime-boost vaccination using ChAd and BNT COVID-19 vaccines. FUNDING: UK Vaccine Task Force and National Institute for Health Research.

Single-dose administration and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine: a pooled analysis of four randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, with a regimen of two standard doses given with an interval of 4-12 weeks. The planned roll-out in the UK will involve vaccinating people in high-risk categories with their first dose immediately, and delivering the second dose 12 weeks later. Here, we provide both a further prespecified pooled analysis of trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and exploratory analyses of the impact on immunogenicity and efficacy of extending the interval between priming and booster doses. In addition, we show the immunogenicity and protection afforded by the first dose, before a booster dose has been offered. METHODS: We present data from three single-blind randomised controlled trials-one phase 1/2 study in the UK (COV001), one phase 2/3 study in the UK (COV002), and a phase 3 study in Brazil (COV003)-and one double-blind phase 1/2 study in South Africa (COV005). As previously described, individuals 18 years and older were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (5 × 1010 viral particles) or a control vaccine or saline placebo. In the UK trial, a subset of participants received a lower dose (2·2 × 1010 viral particles) of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 for the first dose. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, defined as a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia) more than 14 days after the second dose. Secondary efficacy analyses included cases occuring at least 22 days after the first dose. Antibody responses measured by immunoassay and by pseudovirus neutralisation were exploratory outcomes. All cases of COVID-19 with a NAAT-positive swab were adjudicated for inclusion in the analysis by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The primary analysis included all participants who were SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative at baseline, had had at least 14 days of follow-up after the second dose, and had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from NAAT swabs. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose. The four trials are registered at ISRCTN89951424 (COV003) and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606 (COV001), NCT04400838 (COV002), and NCT04444674 (COV005). FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4-74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3-85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59-0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3-91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0-69·9] at <6 weeks). These observations are supported by immunogenicity data that showed binding antibody responses more than two-fold higher after an interval of 12 or more weeks compared with an interval of less than 6 weeks in those who were aged 18-55 years (GMR 2·32 [2·01-2·68]). INTERPRETATION: The results of this primary analysis of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 were consistent with those seen in the interim analysis of the trials and confirm that the vaccine is efficacious, with results varying by dose interval in exploratory analyses. A 3-month dose interval might have advantages over a programme with a short dose interval for roll-out of a pandemic vaccine to protect the largest number of individuals in the population as early as possible when supplies are scarce, while also improving protection after receiving a second dose. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR), The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, the Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

A novel approach to estimate the local population denominator to calculate disease incidence for hospital-based health events in England.

While incidence studies based on hospitalisation counts are commonly used for public health decision-making, no standard methodology to define hospitals' catchment population exists. We conducted a review of all published community-acquired pneumonia studies in England indexed in PubMed and assessed methods for determining denominators when calculating incidence in hospital-based surveillance studies. Denominators primarily were derived from census-based population estimates of local geographic boundaries and none attempted to determine denominators based on actual hospital access patterns in the community. We describe a new approach to accurately define population denominators based on historical patient healthcare utilisation data. This offers benefits over the more established methodologies which are dependent on assumptions regarding healthcare-seeking behaviour. Our new approach may be applicable to a wide range of health conditions and provides a framework to more accurately determine hospital catchment. This should increase the accuracy of disease incidence estimates based on hospitalised events, improving information available for public health decision making and service delivery planning.

Impact of Meningococcal B (4CMenB) Vaccine on Pharyngeal Neisseria meningitidis Carriage Density and Persistence in Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Higher density of Neisseria meningitidis carriage may be associated with transmission of the meningococcus. Our aim was to establish the impact of meningococcal B (4CMenB) vaccine on N. meningitidis carriage density. METHODS: We compared 4CMenB vaccine to control among 913 South Australian students aged approximately 15-18 years in a cluster randomized trial who had N. meningitidis carriage at 12 months. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected at baseline and 12 months later to detect N. meningitidis carriage. Colony-forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) were estimated by generating a standard curve that plotted quantitative polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold values against log-normalized CFU. RESULTS: Among the 913 students with N. meningitidis carriage at 12 months, there was no difference in mean carriage density between the vaccinated (n = 434; 3.80 log CFU/mL [standard deviation {SD}, 1.29]) and control group (n = 479; 3.73 log CFU/mL [SD, 1.30]; P = .51). Higher N. meningitidis carriage density at baseline was associated with an increase in the odds of persistent carriage at 12 months (n = 504; odds ratio [OR] per 1.0 log CFU/mL increase in density, 1.36 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.17-1.58]; P < .001). Students with baseline carriage who were vaccinated had decreased persistent N. meningitidis carriage at 12 months compared to unvaccinated students (81/260 [31%] vs 105/244 [43%]; OR, 0.60 [95% CI, .40-.90]; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: 4CMenB vaccine did not reduce carriage density of N. meningitidis 12 months postvaccination, despite increased carriage clearance. Higher carriage density is likely to enable transmission through prolonged periods of population exposure. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03089086.

Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a preliminary report of a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might be curtailed by vaccination. We assessed the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a viral vectored coronavirus vaccine that expresses the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We did a phase 1/2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial in five trial sites in the UK of a chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) expressing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein compared with a meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) as control. Healthy adults aged 18-55 years with no history of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19-like symptoms were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 at a dose of 5 × 1010 viral particles or MenACWY as a single intramuscular injection. A protocol amendment in two of the five sites allowed prophylactic paracetamol to be administered before vaccination. Ten participants assigned to a non-randomised, unblinded ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 prime-boost group received a two-dose schedule, with the booster vaccine administered 28 days after the first dose. Humoral responses at baseline and following vaccination were assessed using a standardised total IgG ELISA against trimeric SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, a muliplexed immunoassay, three live SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation assays (a 50% plaque reduction neutralisation assay [PRNT50]; a microneutralisation assay [MNA50, MNA80, and MNA90]; and Marburg VN), and a pseudovirus neutralisation assay. Cellular responses were assessed using an ex-vivo interferon-γ enzyme-linked immunospot assay. The co-primary outcomes are to assess efficacy, as measured by cases of symptomatic virologically confirmed COVID-19, and safety, as measured by the occurrence of serious adverse events. Analyses were done by group allocation in participants who received the vaccine. Safety was assessed over 28 days after vaccination. Here, we report the preliminary findings on safety, reactogenicity, and cellular and humoral immune responses. The study is ongoing, and was registered at ISRCTN, 15281137, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and May 21, 2020, 1077 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive either ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (n=543) or MenACWY (n=534), ten of whom were enrolled in the non-randomised ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 prime-boost group. Local and systemic reactions were more common in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and many were reduced by use of prophylactic paracetamol, including pain, feeling feverish, chills, muscle ache, headache, and malaise (all p<0·05). There were no serious adverse events related to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. In the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, spike-specific T-cell responses peaked on day 14 (median 856 spot-forming cells per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells, IQR 493-1802; n=43). Anti-spike IgG responses rose by day 28 (median 157 ELISA units [EU], 96-317; n=127), and were boosted following a second dose (639 EU, 360-792; n=10). Neutralising antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 32 (91%) of 35 participants after a single dose when measured in MNA80 and in 35 (100%) participants when measured in PRNT50. After a booster dose, all participants had neutralising activity (nine of nine in MNA80 at day 42 and ten of ten in Marburg VN on day 56). Neutralising antibody responses correlated strongly with antibody levels measured by ELISA (R2=0·67 by Marburg VN; p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular immune responses, support large-scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase 3 programme. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Gießen-Marburg-Langen.