Host transcriptomic signatures of tuberculosis can predict immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV patients.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) can be a complication of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in patients with advanced HIV, but its pathogenesis is uncertain. In tuberculosis (TB) endemic countries, IRIS is often associated with mycobacterial infections or Bacille-Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination in children. With no predictive or confirmatory tests at present, IRIS remains a diagnosis of exclusion. We tested whether RISK6 and Sweeney3, validated immune-based blood transcriptomic signatures for TB, could predict or diagnose IRIS in HIV+ children and adults. Transcripts were measured by RT-qPCR in BCG-vaccinated children and by microarray in HIV+ adults with TB including TB meningitis (TBM). Signature scores before ART initiation and up to IRIS diagnosis were compared between participants who did or did not develop IRIS. In children, RISK6 and Sweeney3 discriminated IRIS cases from non-IRIS controls before ART, and at diagnosis. In adults with TB, RISK6 discriminated IRIS cases from controls after half-week on ART and at TB-IRIS onset. In adults with TBM, only Sweeney3 discriminated IRIS cases from controls before ART, while both signatures distinguished cases from controls at TB-IRIS onset. Parsimonious whole blood transcriptomic signatures for TB showed potential to predict and diagnose IRIS in HIV+ children and adults.

Understanding the interaction between cytomegalovirus and tuberculosis in children: The way forward.

Over 1 million children develop tuberculosis (TB) each year, with a quarter dying. Multiple factors impact the risk of a child being exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the risk of progressing to TB disease, and the risk of dying. However, an emerging body of evidence suggests that coinfection with cytomegalovirus (CMV), a ubiquitous herpes virus, impacts the host response to Mtb, potentially influencing the probability of disease progression, type of TB disease, performance of TB diagnostics, and disease outcome. It is also likely that infection with Mtb impacts CMV pathogenesis. Our current understanding of the burden of these 2 diseases in children, their immunological interactions, and the clinical consequence of coinfection is incomplete. It is also unclear how potential interventions might affect disease progression and outcome for TB or CMV. This article reviews the epidemiological, clinical, and immunological literature on CMV and TB in children and explores how the 2 pathogens interact, while also considering the impact of HIV on this relationship. It outlines areas of research uncertainty and makes practical suggestions as to potential studies that might address these gaps. Current research is hampered by inconsistent definitions, study designs, and laboratory practices, and more consistency and collaboration between researchers would lead to greater clarity. The ambitious targets outlined in the World Health Organization End TB Strategy will only be met through a better understanding of all aspects of child TB, including the substantial impact of coinfections.

Systems approaches to correlates of protection and progression to TB disease.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death due to a single infectious disease and an effective vaccine would substantially accelerate global efforts to control TB. An immune correlate of protection (CoP) from TB disease could aid vaccine optimization and licensure. This paper summarises opportunities for identifying CoP and highlights results from correlates of risk studies. Although we don't have CoP, there are ongoing efficacy trials with both disease and infection endpoints which provide opportunities for such an analysis. Transcriptomics has successfully identified robust CoR, with transcripts found in the Type I IFN pathway. Correlates of lower risk include BCG antigen specific IFN-γ and natural killer cells. Collating evidence from multiple studies using a range of systems approaches supports a role for IFN-γ in protection from TB disease. In addition, the cells that express the IFN-γ receptor are also important in protective immunity. Protection is a culmination not only of the amount of IFN-γ produced by T cells and NK cells but by the ability of IFN-γ receptor expressing monocytes to respond to IFN-γ. To better understand IFN-γ as a correlate we need to understand host-factors such as age, sex, co-infection, nutritional status and stress which may alter or impair the ability of cells to respond to IFN-γ. These studies highlight recent advances in our understanding of the immune mechanisms of TB disease risk and show the importance of whole systems approaches to correlates of risk analysis. CoP may be useful tools for specific vaccine products in specific populations, but a well-designed CoR analysis can identify novel immune mechanisms and provide insights critical for the development of new and better TB vaccines.

Are people with an intellectual disability at increased risk of attachment difficulties? A critical review.

Attachment difficulties are associated with a range of adverse outcomes in mental health, and people with intellectual disabilities (IDs) may be at greater risk of experiencing difficulties in their attachment relationships. This review critically evaluated recent research measuring the prevalence of attachment difficulties in people with ID. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, and a higher prevalence of insecure and disorganized attachment classifications, and symptoms of attachment disorder, was found across a number of subgroups of people with diagnoses of ID. However, the validity and reliability of measures of attachment have not been empirically established in this population, and control groups were not always appropriate. These findings indicate the need to (1) develop reliable and standardized assessments of attachment for people with ID and (2) evaluate the efficacy of attachment-based interventions in relation to reducing psychological distress, mental health problems and expression of behaviours experienced by others as challenging.

Cytomegalovirus Antibody Responses Associated With Increased Risk of Tuberculosis Disease in Ugandan Adults.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence highlights human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and immune activation as risk factors for tuberculosis disease. It is not known whether other herpesviruses are also implicated, nor whether a dose-response relationship exists between tuberculosis risk and herpes coinfection. METHODS: This nested case-control study used stored serum samples from 25 persons with tuberculosis up to 10 years before tuberculosis diagnosis and between 3 and 6 matched controls without tuberculosis from a rural Ugandan cohort. Samples were investigated for Epstein-Barr virus, herpes simplex virus, and HCMV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG), serum markers of inflammation, and mycobacterial antibody levels. RESULTS: Humoral response to HCMV, but not Epstein-Barr or herpes simplex virus, was associated with increased risk of active tuberculosis disease up to 10 years before diagnosis. Individuals with medium HCMV IgG were 2.8 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .055), and those with high HCMV IgG 3.4 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .007). Mycobacterial antibody levels were not associated with differences in odds of tuberculosis disease. Interferon-induced protein 10 was independently associated with increased odds of tuberculosis (odds ratio, 4.2; P = .009). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence of a dose response between magnitude of HCMV IgG with risk of tuberculosis disease. An inflammatory environment, characterized by serum interferon-induced protein 10 and interleukin 1α, is independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis disease.

Human Immune Responses to Melioidosis and Cross-Reactivity to Low-Virulence Burkholderia Species, Thailand1.

Melioidosis is a neglected tropical disease with an estimated annual mortality rate of 89,000 in 45 countries across tropical regions. The causative agent is Burkholderia pseudomallei, a gram-negative soil-dwelling bacterium. In Thailand, B. pseudomallei can be found across multiple regions, along with the low-virulence B. thailandensis and the recently discovered B. thailandensis variant (BTCV), which expresses B. pseudomallei-like capsular polysaccharide. Comprehensive studies of human immune responses to B. thailandensis variants and cross-reactivity to B. pseudomallei are not complete. We evaluated human immune responses to B. pseudomallei, B. thailandensis, and BTCV in melioidosis patients and healthy persons in B. pseudomallei-endemic areas using a range of humoral and cellular immune assays. We found immune cross-reactivity to be strong for both humoral and cellular immunity among B. pseudomallei, B. thailandensis, and BTCV. Our findings suggest that environmental exposure to low-virulence strains may build cellular immunity to B. pseudomallei.

HIV, HCMV and mycobacterial antibody levels: a cross-sectional study in a rural Ugandan cohort.

OBJECTIVES: A growing evidence base implicates human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) as a risk factor for TB disease. We investigated total IgG and mycobacteria-specific antibodies in a cross-sectional study nested within a rural Ugandan General Population Cohort (GPC), in relation to HIV infection and the magnitude of HCMV IgG response. METHODS: Sera from 2189 individuals (including 27 sputum-positive TB cases) were analysed for antibodies against mycobacteria (Ag85A, PPD, LAM, ESAT6/CFP10) and HCMV, tetanus toxoid (TT) and total IgG. RESULTS: Anti-mycobacterial antibodies increased with age until approximately 20 years, when they plateaued. Higher HCMV exposure (measured by IgG) was associated with lower levels of some anti-mycobacterial antibodies, but no increase in total IgG. HIV infection was associated with a decrease in all anti-mycobacterial antibodies measured and with an increase in total IgG. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in anti-mycobacterial antibodies with age suggests increasing exposure to non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), and to M.tb itself. HIV infection is associated with decreased levels of all mycobacterial antibodies studied here, and high levels of HCMV IgG are associated with decreased levels of some mycobacterial antibodies. These findings point towards the importance of humoral immune responses in HIV/TB co-infection and highlight a possible role of HCMV as a risk factor for TB disease.

How can we improve priority-setting for investments in health research? A case study of tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Although enhanced priority-setting for investments in health research for development is essential to tackling inequalities in global health, there is a lack of consensus on an optimal priority-setting process. In light of the current surge in tuberculosis (TB) research investment, we use TB as a case study. METHODS: We investigated two critical aspects of a research prioritisation process, namely the criteria that should be used to rank alternative research options and which stakeholders should be involved in priority-setting. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 key informants purposively selected from four distinct groups - academia, funding bodies, international policy or technical agencies, and national disease control programmes. Interview transcripts were analysed verbatim using a framework approach. We also performed a systematic analysis of seven diverse TB research prioritisation processes. RESULTS: There was consensus that well-defined and transparent criteria for assessing research options need to be agreed at the outset of any prioritisation process. It was recommended that criteria should select for research that is likely to have the greatest public health impact in affected countries rather than research that mainly fills scientific knowledge gaps. Some interviewees expressed strong views about the need - and reluctance - to make politically challenging decisions that place some research areas at a lower priority for funding. The importance of taking input from stakeholders from countries with high disease burden was emphasised; such stakeholders were notably absent from the majority of prioritisation processes we analysed. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated two critical areas for improvement of research prioritisation processes such that inequalities in health are better addressed - the need to deprioritise some research areas to generate a specific and meaningful list for investment, and greater involvement of experts working in high disease-burden countries.

Association of Human Antibodies to Arabinomannan With Enhanced Mycobacterial Opsonophagocytosis and Intracellular Growth Reduction.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of antibodies (Abs) in the defense against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection remains uncertain. We investigated the role of Abs to the mycobacterial capsular polysaccharide arabinomannan (AM) and its oligosaccharide (OS) fragments in humans. METHODS: Sera obtained from 29 healthy adults before and after primary or secondary bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination were assessed for Ab responses to AM via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and to AM OS epitopes via novel glycan microarrays. Effects of prevaccination and postvaccination sera on BCG phagocytosis and intracellular survival were assessed in human macrophages. RESULTS: Immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to AM increased significantly 4-8 weeks after vaccination (P < .01), and sera were able to opsonize BCG and M. tuberculosis grown in both the absence and the presence of detergent. Phagocytosis and intracellular growth inhibition were significantly enhanced when BCG was opsonized with postvaccination sera (P < .01), and these enhancements correlated significantly with IgG titers to AM (P < .05), particularly with reactivity to 3 AM OS epitopes (P < .05). Furthermore, increased phagolysosomal fusion was observed with postvaccination sera. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide further evidence for a role of Ab-mediated immunity to tuberculosis and suggest that IgG to AM, especially to some of its OS epitopes, could contribute to the defense against mycobacterial infection in humans.

Uniting to end the TB epidemic: advances in disease control from prevention to better diagnosis and treatment.

Tuberculosis is a major global cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite recent advances in containing the epidemic, several challenges continue to slow progress towards elimination including the continuing impact of drug resistant disease, and the lack of appropriate tools. Curtailing the transmission of tuberculosis remains a challenge especially in high burden countries. New developments in measuring correlates of protection are urgently needed to support the evaluation of vaccines. Similarly, despite progress in molecular diagnostics, better tools are required to identify resistance to antibiotics in multi and extensively drug resistant tuberculosis. Whole Genome Sequencing may lead to the next generation of assays to rapidly detect resistance and evaluate transmission. Advances on shortening treatment are hampered by the lack of a biomarker of cure which obviates the current long wait for relapses in trials. New research is urgently needed to support development of new vaccines and better diagnostics tools and shorter treatment for drug sensitive and resistant tuberculosis.

Investments in tuberculosis research - what are the gaps?

Through decades of research, numerous studies have generated robust evidence about effective interventions for tuberculosis control. Yet, the global annual decline in incidence of approximately 1 % is evidence that current approaches and investment strategies are not sufficient. In this article, we assess recent tuberculosis research funding and discuss two critical gaps in funding and in scientific evidence from topics that have been left off the research priority agenda.We first examine research and development funding goals in the 2011-2015 Global Plan to Stop Tuberculosis and analyze disbursements to different research areas by funders worldwide in 2014. We then summarize, through a compilation of published literature and consultation with 35 researchers across multiple disciplines in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine TB Centre, priorities identified by the tuberculosis research community. Finally, we compare researchers' priority areas to the global funding agendas and activities.Our analysis shows that, among the five key research areas defined in the 2011-2015 Global Plan - namely drugs, basic science, vaccines, diagnostics and operational research - drug discovery and basic science on Mycobacterium tuberculosis accounted for 60 % of the $2 billion annual funding target. None of the research areas received the recommended level of funding. Operational research, which had the lowest target, received 66 % of its target funding, whereas new diagnostics received only 19 %. Although many of the priority research questions identified by researchers fell within the Global Plan categories, our analysis highlights important areas that are not explicitly mentioned in the current plan. These priority research areas included improved understanding of tuberculosis transmission dynamics, the role of social protection and social determinants, and health systems and policy research.While research priorities are increasingly important in light of the limited funding for tuberculosis, there is a risk that we neglect important research areas and encourage the formation of research silos. To ensure that funding priorities, researchers' agendas and national tuberculosis control policies are better coordinated, there should be more, and wider, dialogue between stakeholders in high tuberculosis burden countries, researchers, international policymakers and funders.

World TB Day 2016: an interview with leading experts in tuberculosis research.

In this interview, we talk to leading tuberculosis (TB) experts from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine about the current challenges in TB research. The video of this interview is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75Die7MQBec&feature=youtu.be . The video can also be downloaded via Additional file 1.

Human newborn bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination and risk of tuberculosis disease: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: An incomplete understanding of the immunological mechanisms underlying protection against tuberculosis (TB) hampers the development of new vaccines against TB. We aimed to define host correlates of prospective risk of TB disease following bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination. METHODS: In this study, 5,726 infants vaccinated with BCG at birth were enrolled. Host responses in blood collected at 10 weeks of age were compared between infants who developed pulmonary TB disease during 2 years of follow-up (cases) and those who remained healthy (controls). RESULTS: Comprehensive gene expression and cellular and soluble marker analysis failed to identify a correlate of risk. We showed that distinct host responses after BCG vaccination may be the reason: two major clusters of gene expression, with different myeloid and lymphoid activation and inflammatory patterns, were evident when all infants were examined together. Cases from each cluster demonstrated distinct patterns of gene expression, which were confirmed by cellular assays. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct patterns of host responses to Mycobacterium bovis BCG suggest that novel TB vaccines may also elicit distinct patterns of host responses. This diversity should be considered in future TB vaccine development.

A new tool for tuberculosis vaccine screening: Ex vivo Mycobacterial Growth Inhibition Assay indicates BCG-mediated protection in a murine model of tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of a validated animal model and/or an immune correlate which predict vaccine-mediated protection, large-scale clinical trials are currently the only option to prove efficacy of new tuberculosis candidate vaccines. Tools to facilitate testing of new tuberculosis (TB) vaccines are therefore urgently needed. METHODS: We present here an optimized ex vivo mycobacterial growth inhibition assay (MGIA) using a murine Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection model. This assay assesses the combined ability of host immune cells to inhibit mycobacterial growth in response to vaccination. C57BL/6 mice were immunized with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and growth inhibition of mycobacteria by splenocytes was assessed. Mice were also challenged with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Erdman, and bacterial burden was assessed in lungs and spleen. RESULTS: Using the growth inhibition assay, we find a reduction in BCG CFU of 0.3-0.8 log10 after co-culture with murine splenocytes from BCG vaccinated versus naïve C57BL/6 mice. BCG vaccination in our hands led to a reduction in bacterial burden after challenge with Mycobacterium tuberculosis of approx. 0.7 log10 CFU in lung and approx. 1 log10 CFU in spleen. This effect was also seen when using Mycobacterium smegmatis as the target of growth inhibition. An increase in mycobacterial numbers was found when splenocytes from interferon gamma-deficient mice were used, compared to wild type controls, indicating that immune mechanisms may also be investigated using this assay. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that the ex vivo mycobacterial growth inhibition assay could be a useful tool to help assess vaccine efficacy in future, alongside other established methods. It could also be a valuable tool for determination of underlying immune mechanisms.

Gene expression and cytokine profile correlate with mycobacterial growth in a human BCG challenge model.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine is the most widely administered vaccine in the world, yet its mechanism of action remains unclear. We hypothesize that certain immune pathways are associated with reduced mycobacterial growth following BCG challenge in human volunteers. METHODS: We used samples from a mycobacterial challenge in which previously BCG-vaccinated or BCG-naive adults in the United Kingdom were challenged intradermally with a standard dose of BCG. Any remaining BCG was quantified in a skin biopsy specimen obtained 2 weeks after challenge and used as a measure of BCG growth and functional antimycobacterial immunity. We measured the immune response over the 2-week challenge, using DNA microarrays and flow cytometry, and correlated this with mycobacterial growth. RESULTS: The magnitude of the immune response to BCG is greater in previously vaccinated volunteers, and this correlates with reduced mycobacterial growth but increased scarring at the vaccination site. In particular, the interferon γ and interleukin 17 pathways are strongly induced in previously vaccinated volunteers and correlate with reduced mycobacterial growth in this population. CONCLUSION: This study identifies pathways associated with control of mycobacterial growth in vivo in human volunteers and supports the use of BCG challenge as a tool for evaluating vaccine efficacy and identifying mechanisms of antimycobacterial immunity.

Perspectives on Advances in Tuberculosis Diagnostics, Drugs, and Vaccines.

Despite concerted efforts over the past 2 decades at developing new diagnostics, drugs, and vaccines with expanding pipelines, tuberculosis remains a global emergency. Several novel diagnostic technologies show promise of better point-of-care rapid tests for tuberculosis including nucleic acid-based amplification tests, imaging, and breath analysis of volatile organic compounds. Advances in new and repurposed drugs for use in multidrug-resistant (MDR) or extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis have focused on development of several new drug regimens and their evaluation in clinical trials and now influence World Health Organization guidelines. Since the failure of the MVA85A vaccine 2 years ago, there have been no new tuberculosis vaccine candidates entering clinical testing. The current status quo of the lengthy treatment duration and poor treatment outcomes associated with MDR/XDR tuberculosis and with comorbidity of tuberculosis with human immunodeficiency virus and noncommunicable diseases is unacceptable. New innovations and political and funder commitment for early rapid diagnosis, shortening duration of therapy, improving treatment outcomes, and prevention are urgently required.

Evaluation of a human BCG challenge model to assess antimycobacterial immunity induced by BCG and a candidate tuberculosis vaccine, MVA85A, alone and in combination.

BACKGROUND: A new vaccine is urgently needed to combat tuberculosis. However, without a correlate of protection, selection of the vaccines to take forward into large-scale efficacy trials is difficult. Use of bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as a surrogate for human Mycobacterium tuberculosis challenge is a novel model that could aid selection. METHODS: Healthy adults were assigned to groups A and B (BCG-naive) or groups C and D (BCG-vaccinated). Groups B and D received candidate tuberculosis vaccine MVA85A. Participants were challenged with intradermal BCG 4 weeks after those who received MVA85A. Skin biopsies of the challenge site were taken 2 weeks post challenge and BCG load quantified by culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). RESULTS: Volunteers with a history of BCG showed some degree of protective immunity to challenge, having lower BCG loads compared with volunteers without prior BCG, regardless of MVA85A status. There was a significant inverse correlation between antimycobacterial immunity at peak response after MVA85A and BCG load detected by qPCR. CONCLUSION: Our results support previous findings that this BCG challenge model is able to detect differences in antimycobacterial immunity induced by vaccination and could aid in the selection of candidate tuberculosis vaccines for field efficacy testing.

Ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes in peripheral blood identifies adults at risk of incident tuberculosis among HIV-infected adults initiating antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Eight decades ago, the ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes (hereafter, the "ML ratio") was noted to affect outcomes of mycobacterial infection in rabbits. Recent transcriptomic studies support a role for relative proportions of myeloid and lymphoid transcripts in tuberculosis outcomes. The ML ratio in peripheral blood is known to be governed by hematopoietic stem cells with distinct biases. METHODS: The predictive value of the baseline ML ratio was modeled in 2 prospective cohorts of HIV-infected adults starting cART in South Africa (primary cohort, 1862 participants; replication cohort, 345 participants). Incident tuberculosis was diagnosed with clinical, radiographic, and microbiologic methods per contemporary guidelines. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazards modeling were conducted. RESULTS: The incidence rate of tuberculosis differed significantly by baseline ML ratio: 32.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.38-61.54), 16.36 (95% CI, 12.39-21.23), and 51.80 (95% CI, 23.10-101.71) per 1000 patient-years for ML ratios of less than the 5th percentile, between the 5th and 95th percentiles, and greater than the 95th percentile, respectively (P = .007). Neither monocyte counts nor lymphocyte counts alone were associated with tuberculosis. After adjustment for sex, World Health Organization human immunodeficiency virus disease stage, CD4(+) T-cell counts, and previous history of tuberculosis, hazards of disease were significantly higher for patients with ML ratios of less than the 5th percentile or greater than the 95th percentile (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% CI, 1.39-4.40; P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: The ML ratio may be a useful, readily available tool to stratify the risk of tuberculosis and suggests involvement of hematopoietic stem cell bias in tuberculosis pathogenesis.

The association between the ratio of monocytes:lymphocytes at age 3 months and risk of tuberculosis (TB) in the first two years of life.

BACKGROUND: Recent transcriptomic studies revived a hypothesis suggested by historical studies in rabbits that the ratio of peripheral blood monocytes to lymphocytes (ML) is associated with risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. Recent data confirmed the hypothesis in cattle and in adults infected with HIV. METHODS: We tested this hypothesis in 1,336 infants (540 HIV-infected, 796 HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU)) prospectively followed in a randomized controlled trial of isoniazid prophylaxis in Southern Africa, the IMPAACT P1041 study. We modeled the relationship between ML ratio at enrollment (91 to 120 days after birth) and TB disease or death in HIV-infected children and latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection, TB disease or death in HEU children within 96 weeks (with 12 week window) of randomization. Infants were followed-up prospectively and routinely assessed for MTB exposure and outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models allowing for non-linear associations were used; in all cases linear models were the most parsimonious. RESULTS: Increasing ML ratio at baseline was significantly associated with TB disease/death within two years (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.17 per unit increase in ML ratio; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.34; P = 0.03). Neither monocyte count nor lymphocyte counts alone were associated with TB disease. The association was not statistically dissimilar between HIV infected and HEU children. Baseline ML ratio was associated with composite endpoints of TB disease and death and/or TB infection. It was strongest when restricted to probable and definite TB disease (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.89; P = 0.006). Therefore, per 0.1 unit increase in the ML ratio at three to four months of age, the hazard of probable or definite TB disease before two years was increased by roughly 4% (95% CI 1.7% to 6.6%). CONCLUSION: Elevated ML ratio at three- to four-months old is associated with increased hazards of TB disease before two years among children in Southern Africa. While significant, the modest effect size suggests that the ML ratio plays a modest role in predicting TB disease-free survival; its utility may, therefore, be limited to combination with existing tools to stratify TB risk, or to inform underlying pathophysiologic determinants of TB disease.