Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (ß = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Associations between body mass index-related genetic variants and adult body composition: The Fenland cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Body mass index (BMI) is a surrogate measure of adiposity but does not distinguish fat from lean or bone mass. The genetic determinants of BMI are thought to predominantly influence adiposity but this has not been confirmed. Here we characterise the association between BMI-related genetic variants and body composition in adults. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Among 9667 adults aged 29-64 years from the Fenland study, a genetic risk score for BMI (BMI-GRS) was calculated for each individual as the weighted sum of BMI-increasing alleles across 96 reported BMI-related variants. Associations between the BMI-GRS and body composition, estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, were examined using age-adjusted linear regression models, separately by sex. RESULTS: The BMI-GRS was positively associated with all fat, lean and bone variables. Across body regions, associations of the greatest magnitude were observed for adiposity variables, for example, for each s.d. increase in BMI-GRS predicted BMI, we observed a 0.90 s.d. (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71, 1.09) increase in total fat mass for men (P=3.75 × 10-21) and a 0.96 s.d. (95% CI: 0.77, 1.16) increase for women (P=6.12 × 10-22). Associations of intermediate magnitude were observed with lean variables, for example, total lean mass: men: 0.68 s.d. (95% CI: 0.49, 0.86; P=1.91 × 10-12); women: 0.85 s.d. (95% CI: 0.65, 1.04; P=2.66 × 10-17) and of a lower magnitude with bone variables, for example, total bone mass: men: 0.39 s.d. (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58; P=5.69 × 10-5); women: 0.45 s.d. (95% CI: 0.26, 0.65; P=3.96 × 106). Nominally significant associations with BMI were observed for 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. All 28 were positively associated with fat mass and 13 showed adipose-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: In adults, genetic susceptibility to elevated BMI influences adiposity more than lean or bone mass. This mirrors the association between BMI and body composition. The BMI-GRS can be used to model the effects of measured BMI and adiposity on health and other outcomes.

Ethnic differences in cross-sectional associations between impaired glucose regulation, identified by oral glucose tolerance test or HbA1c values, and cardiovascular disease in a cohort of European and South Asian origin.

AIMS: We contrasted impaired glucose regulation (prediabetes) prevalence, defined according to oral glucose tolerance test or HbA1c values, and studied cross-sectional associations between prediabetes and subclinical/clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a cohort of European and South Asian origin. METHODS: For 682 European and 520 South Asian men and women, aged 58-85 years, glycaemic status was determined by oral glucose tolerance test or HbA1c thresholds. Questionnaires, record review, coronary artery calcification scores and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging established clinical plus subclinical coronary heart and cerebrovascular disease. RESULTS: Prediabetes was more prevalent in South Asian participants when defined by HbA1c rather than by oral glucose tolerance test criteria. Accounting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides and waist-hip ratio, prediabetes was associated with coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in European participants, most obviously when defined by HbA1c rather than by oral glucose tolerance test [odds ratios for HbA1c -defined prediabetes 1.60 (95% CI 1.07, 2.39) for coronary heart disease and 1.57 (95% CI 1.00, 2.51) for cerebrovascular disease]. By contrast, non-significant associations were present between oral glucose tolerance test-defined prediabetes only and coronary heart disease [odds ratio 1.41 (95% CI 0.84, 2.36)] and HbA1c -defined prediabetes only and cerebrovascular disease [odds ratio 1.39 (95% CI 0.69, 2.78)] in South Asian participants. Prediabetes defined by HbA1c or oral glucose tolerance test criteria was associated with cardiovascular disease (defined as coronary heart and/or cerebrovascular disease) in Europeans [odds ratio 1.95 (95% CI 1.31, 2.91) for HbA1c prediabetes criteria] but not in South Asian participants [odds ratio 1.00 (95% CI 0.62, 2.66); ethnicity interaction P = 0.04]. CONCLUSIONS: Prediabetes appeared to be less associated with cardiovascular disease in the South Asian than in the European group. These findings have implications for screening, and early cardiovascular prevention strategies in South Asian populations.

Effects of vitamin D2 or D3 supplementation on glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk among people at risk of type 2 diabetes: results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation. RESULTS: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness.

Ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points in the development of Type 2 diabetes - a prospective study including three ethnic groups in the United Kingdom.

AIMS: Conventional definitions of obesity, e.g. body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m² or waist circumference cut-points of 102 cm (men) and 88 cm (women), may underestimate metabolic risk in non-Europeans. We prospectively identified equivalent ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points for the estimation of diabetes risk in British South Asians, African-Caribbeans and Europeans. METHODS: We studied a population-based cohort from London, UK (1356 Europeans, 842 South Asians, 335 African-Caribbeans) who were aged 40-69 years at baseline (1988-1991), when they underwent anthropometry, fasting and post-load (75 g oral glucose tolerance test) blood tests. Incident Type 2 diabetes was identified from primary care records, participant recall and/or follow-up biochemistry. Ethnicity-specific obesity cut-points in association with diabetes incidence were estimated using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Diabetes incidence rates (per 1000 person years) at a median follow-up of 19 years were 20.8 (95% CI: 18.4, 23.6) and 12.0 (8.3, 17.2) in South Asian men and women, 16.5 (12.7, 21.4) and 17.5 (13.0, 23.7) in African-Caribbean men and women, and 7.4 (6.3, 8.7), and 7.2 (5.3, 9.8) in European men and women. For incidence rates equivalent to those at a BMI of 30 kg/m² in European men and women, age- and sex-adjusted cut-points were: South Asians, 25.2 (23.4, 26.6) kg/m²; and African-Caribbeans, 27.2 (25.2, 28.6) kg/m². For South Asian and African-Caribbean men, respectively, waist circumference cut-points of 90.4 (85.0, 94.5) and 90.6 (85.0, 94.5) cm were equivalent to a value of 102 cm in European men. Waist circumference cut-points of 84.0 (74.0, 90.0) cm in South Asian women and 81.2 (71.4, 87.4) cm in African-Caribbean women were equivalent to a value of 88 cm in European women. CONCLUSIONS: In prospective analyses, British South Asians and African-Caribbeans had equivalent diabetes incidence rates at substantially lower obesity levels than the conventional European cut-points.

Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults. METHODS: We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence. RESULTS: In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.

Association between dietary meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: A diet rich in meat has been reported to contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to investigate the association between meat consumption and incident type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study, a large prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. METHODS: During 11.7 years of follow-up, 12,403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified among 340,234 adults from eight European countries. A centre-stratified random subsample of 16,835 individuals was selected in order to perform a case-cohort design. Prentice-weighted Cox regression analyses were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for incident diabetes according to meat consumption. RESULTS: Overall, multivariate analyses showed significant positive associations with incident type 2 diabetes for increasing consumption of total meat (50 g increments: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.05, 1.12), red meat (HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03, 1.13) and processed meat (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.05, 1.19), and a borderline positive association with meat iron intake. Effect modifications by sex and class of BMI were observed. In men, the results of the overall analyses were confirmed. In women, the association with total and red meat persisted, although attenuated, while an association with poultry consumption also emerged (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.07, 1.34). These associations were not evident among obese participants. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This prospective study confirms a positive association between high consumption of total and red meat and incident type 2 diabetes in a large cohort of European adults.

Lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 variants and dietary fatty acids: meta-analysis of European origin and African American studies.

OBJECTIVE: Low-density lipoprotein-related receptor protein 1 (LRP1) is a multi-functional endocytic receptor and signaling molecule that is expressed in adipose and the hypothalamus. Evidence for a role of LRP1 in adiposity is accumulating from animal and in vitro models, but data from human studies are limited. The study objectives were to evaluate (i) relationships between LRP1 genotype and anthropometric traits, and (ii) whether these relationships were modified by dietary fatty acids. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted race/ethnic-specific meta-analyses using data from 14 studies of US and European whites and 4 of African Americans to evaluate associations of dietary fatty acids and LRP1 genotypes with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and hip circumference, as well as interactions between dietary fatty acids and LRP1 genotypes. Seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of LRP1 were evaluated in whites (N up to 42 000) and twelve SNPs in African Americans (N up to 5800). RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex and population substructure if relevant, for each one unit greater intake of percentage of energy from saturated fat (SFA), BMI was 0.104 kg m(-2) greater, waist was 0.305 cm larger and hip was 0.168 cm larger (all P<0.0001). Other fatty acids were not associated with outcomes. The association of SFA with outcomes varied by genotype at rs2306692 (genotyped in four studies of whites), where the magnitude of the association of SFA intake with each outcome was greater per additional copy of the T allele: 0.107 kg m(-2) greater for BMI (interaction P=0.0001), 0.267 cm for waist (interaction P=0.001) and 0.21 cm for hip (interaction P=0.001). No other significant interactions were observed. CONCLUSION: Dietary SFA and LRP1 genotype may interactively influence anthropometric traits. Further exploration of this, and other diet x genotype interactions, may improve understanding of interindividual variability in the relationships of dietary factors with anthropometric traits.

The association between prior infection with five serotypes of Coxsackievirus B and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the EPIC-Norfolk study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Infections with Coxsackieviruses have been linked to beta cell dysfunction. Given the importance of beta cell dysfunction in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes, we hypothesised that prior infection with Coxsackieviruses B would increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. The aims of the study were to estimate cross-sectional associations between potential predictors of previous infection and seropositivity for Coxsackievirus B serotypes 1-5 (CBV1-5), and then to assess the association between seropositivity and incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Using a case-cohort design nested within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, we ascertained n = 603 cases of incident type 2 diabetes. From within the entire cohort we identified a random subcohort of n = 835, without diabetes at baseline. The presence of Coxsackievirus B neutralising antibodies against serotypes 1-5 was assessed using a plaque neutralisation assay. Weighted Cox regression was used to examine the association between presence of antibodies to CBV1-5 and the development of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Seropositivity in the subcohort for CBV1-5 was 50%, 67%, 66%, 75% and 45%, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex, BMI, physical activity and family history of diabetes, the presence of antibodies against CBV1-5 was not associated with incident type 2 diabetes, over a mean follow-up of 5.7 years (HR [95% CIs] 0.94 [0.72,1.25], 0.92 [0.68, 1.23], 1.33 [0.98,1.81], 1.16 [0.83,1.61] and 1.03 [0.77,1.39] for CBV1-5, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The presence of antibodies against any of five serotypes of Coxsackievirus B was not associated with incident type 2 diabetes.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration and the risk of type 2 diabetes: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort and updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Epidemiological evidence is suggestive, but limited, for an association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and risk of type 2 diabetes. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that included new data from previously unpublished studies. METHODS: Using a nested case-cohort design in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, we identified a random subcohort and incident type 2 diabetes cases occurring between baseline (1993-1997) and 2006. In the Ely prospective study we identified incident type 2 diabetes cases between 1990 and 2003. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on 25(OH)D and type 2 diabetes published in MEDLINE or EMBASE until 31 January 2012, and performed a random-effects meta-analysis combining available evidence with results from the EPIC-Norfolk and Ely studies. RESULTS: In EPIC-Norfolk, baseline 25(OH)D was lower among incident type 2 diabetes cases (mean [SD] 61.6 [22.4] nmol/l; n=621) vs non-case subcohort participants (mean 65.3 [23.9] nmol/l; n=826). There was an inverse association between baseline 25(OH)D and incident type 2 diabetes in multivariable-adjusted analyses: HR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.45, 0.97), 0.53 (0.34, 0.82), 0.50 (0.32, 0.76), p trend <0.001, comparing consecutive increasing 25(OH)D quartiles with the lowest. In Ely, 37 incident type 2 diabetes cases were identified among 777 participants. In meta-analysis, the combined RR of type 2 diabetes comparing the highest with lowest quartile of 25(OH)D was 0.59 (0.52, 0.67), with little heterogeneity (I (2) =2.7%, p=0.42) between the 11 studies included (3,612 cases and 55,713 non-cases). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings demonstrate an inverse association between circulating 25(OH)D and incident type 2 diabetes. However, causal inference should be addressed through adequately dosed randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation or genetic Mendelian randomisation experiments.

Physical activity reduces the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in general and in abdominally lean and obese men and women: the EPIC-InterAct Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined the independent and combined associations of physical activity and obesity with incident type 2 diabetes in men and women. METHODS: The InterAct case-cohort study consists of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a randomly selected subcohort of 16,154 individuals, drawn from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. Physical activity was assessed by a four-category index. Obesity was measured by BMI and waist circumference (WC). Associations between physical activity, obesity and case-ascertained incident type 2 diabetes were analysed by Cox regression after adjusting for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption and energy intake. In combined analyses, individuals were stratified according to physical activity level, BMI and WC. RESULTS: A one-category difference in physical activity (equivalent to approximately 460 and 365 kJ/day in men and women, respectively) was independently associated with a 13% (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80, 0.94) and 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89, 0.98) relative reduction in the risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, respectively. Lower levels of physical activity were associated with an increased risk of diabetes across all strata of BMI. Comparing inactive with active individuals, the HRs were 1.44 (95% CI 1.11, 1.87) and 1.38 (95% CI 1.17, 1.62) in abdominally lean and obese inactive men, respectively, and 1.57 (95% CI 1.19, 2.07) and 1.19 (95% CI 1.01, 1.39) in abdominally lean and obese inactive women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Physical activity is associated with a reduction in the risk of developing type 2 diabetes across BMI categories in men and women, as well as in abdominally lean and obese men and women.

Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women: influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. DESIGN: Multicentre prospective case-cohort study. SETTING: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. SUBJECTS: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTIONS: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. RESULTS: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.05) for 6.1-12.0 versus 0.1-6.0 g day(-1) , adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.1-96.0 g day(-1) with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg m(-2) ) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.03 for 6.1-12.0 g day(-1) ). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.

No evidence for a causal link between uric acid and type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomisation approach.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that uric acid has a role in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes. Using a Mendelian randomisation approach, we investigated whether there is evidence for a causal role of serum uric acid for development of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We examined the associations of serum-uric-acid-raising alleles of eight common variants recently identified in genome-wide association studies and summarised this in a genetic score with type 2 diabetes in case-control studies including 7,504 diabetes patients and 8,560 non-diabetic controls. We compared the observed effect size to that expected based on: (1) the association between the genetic score and uric acid levels in non-diabetic controls; and (2) the meta-analysed uric acid level to diabetes association. RESULTS: The genetic score showed a linear association with uric acid levels, with a difference of 12.2 µmol/l (95% CI 9.3, 15.1) by score tertile. No significant associations were observed between the genetic score and potential confounders. No association was observed between the genetic score and type 2 diabetes with an OR of 0.99 (95% CI 0.94, 1.04) per score tertile, significantly different (p = 0.046) from that expected (1.04 [95% CI 1.03, 1.05]) based on the observed uric acid difference by score tertile and the uric acid to diabetes association of 1.21 (95% CI 1.14, 1.29) per 60 µmol/l. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results do not support a causal role of serum uric acid for the development of type 2 diabetes and limit the expectation that uric-acid-lowering drugs will be effective in the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project: an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex. RESULTS: A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.

Intake of total, animal and plant protein and subsequent changes in weight or waist circumference in European men and women: the Diogenes project.

BACKGROUND: As protein is considered to increase thermogenesis and satiety more than other macronutrients, it may have beneficial effects on prevention of weight gain and weight maintenance. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to assess the association between the amount and type of dietary protein, and subsequent changes in weight and waist circumference (WC). METHODS: 89,432 men and women from five countries participating in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were followed for a mean of 6.5 years. Associations between the intake of protein or subgroups of protein (from animal and plant sources) and changes in weight (g per year) or WC (cm per year) were investigated using gender and centre-specific multiple regression analyses. Adjustments were made for other baseline dietary factors, baseline anthropometrics, demographic and lifestyle factors and follow-up time. We used random effect meta-analyses to obtain pooled estimates across centres. RESULTS: Higher intake of total protein, and protein from animal sources was associated with subsequent weight gain for both genders, strongest among women, and the association was mainly attributable to protein from red and processed meat and poultry rather than from fish and dairy sources. There was no overall association between intake of plant protein and subsequent changes in weight. No clear overall associations between intakes of total protein or any of the subgroups and changes in WC were present. The associations showed some heterogeneity between centres, but pooling of estimates was still considered justified. CONCLUSION: A high intake of protein was not found associated with lower weight or waist gain in this observational study. In contrast, protein from food items of animal origin, especially meat and poultry, seemed to be positively associated with long-term weight gain. There were no clear associations for waist changes.

The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010-2030.

AIM: To provide robust estimates of the total prevalence of diabetes (including undiagnosed) in England to support effective planning and delivery of services. METHODS: Age- and sex-specific prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes in people aged 16 years and older [based on HbA(1c) of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or greater] were taken from the Health Survey for England 2006. Data from the Health Survey for England 2004 were used to adjust for ethnic difference in prevalence. A deprivation adjustment refined the geographical distribution of diabetes prevalence. Projected diabetes prevalence was calculated using trends in overweight and obesity prevalence from the Health Surveys for England 2003 to 2008. RESULTS: In 2010 there were an estimated 3.1 million (7.4%) people aged 16 years and older with diabetes in England. Comparisons between the 2008/2009 Quality and Outcomes Framework data and estimates for 2009 suggest that that 27.1% of the total number of people with diabetes are not included on general practice diabetes registers. The total number of adults with diabetes is projected to rise to 4.6 million or 9.5% by 2030. Approximately half of this increase is attributable to the changing age and ethnic group structure of the population and half is because of the rising prevalence of obesity. CONCLUSIONS: This model estimates that the prevalence of total diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in England is higher than previously suggested. An ageing population and increasing prevalence of obesity imply that the prevalence of diabetes will continue to rise and health services should be planned accordingly.

Association of C-reactive protein with type 2 diabetes: prospective analysis and meta-analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined the association between serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident diabetes in a prospective study, and added these data to a literature-based meta-analysis to explore potential sources of heterogeneity between studies. METHODS: We analysed a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort, including 293 incident diabetes cases and 708 controls. We combined 16 published studies on CRP and incident diabetes in a random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, serum CRP was associated with a higher risk of diabetes after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, family history of diabetes, smoking and physical activity (OR 1.49, comparing the extreme thirds of CRP distribution [95% CI 1.03-2.15], p = 0.03). However, the association was completely attenuated after further adjustment for WHR, serum gamma-glutamyltransferase and serum adiponectin (OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.66-1.51, p = 1.0). In a meta-analysis of 16 published studies with 3,920 incident diabetes cases and 24,914 controls, the RR was 1.72 (95% CI 1.54-1.92), comparing the extreme thirds of CRP distribution, with substantial heterogeneity between studies (I (2) = 52.8%, p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Initial evidence of association between CRP and incident diabetes was confounded by central adiposity, markers of liver dysfunction and adiponectin in the primary analysis. Despite an overall positive association in the meta-analysis, considerable heterogeneity existed between studies. The degree of adjustment for central adiposity and baseline glycaemia explained some of this heterogeneity and suggests that CRP may not be an independent risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

Are elevated circulating intercellular adhesion molecule 1 levels more strongly predictive of diabetes than vascular risk? Outcome of a prospective study in the elderly.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether circulating intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM) 1, as a potential surrogate of 'endothelial activation', is more strongly associated with risk of vascular events than with incident diabetes. METHODS: We related baseline ICAM-1 levels to vascular events (866 CHD and stroke events in 5,685 participants) and incident diabetes (292 in 4,945 without baseline diabetes) in the elderly over 3.2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: ICAM-1 levels correlated positively with triacylglycerol but negatively with LDL- and HDL-cholesterol. ICAM-1 levels were higher in those who developed diabetes (388.6 +/- 1.42 vs 369.4 +/- 1.39 ng/ml [mean+/-SD], p = 0.011) and remained independently associated with new-onset diabetes (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.26-2.69, p = 0.0015 per unit increase in log[ICAM-1] after adjusting for classical risk factors and C-reactive protein). By contrast, ICAM-1 levels were not significantly (p = 0.40) elevated in those who had an incident vascular event compared with those who remained event-free, and corresponding adjusted risk associations were null (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.80-1.22, p = 0.89) in analyses adjusted for other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We show that elevated ICAM-1 levels are associated with risk of incident diabetes in the elderly at risk, despite no association with incident cardiovascular disease risk. We suggest that perturbations in circulating ICAM-1 levels are aligned more towards diabetes risk.

Dietary glycaemic index, glycaemic load and subsequent changes of weight and waist circumference in European men and women.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether dietary glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) were associated with subsequent weight and waist circumference change. DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING: Five European countries, which are Denmark, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 89,432 participants, aged 20-78 years (mean =53 years) at baseline and followed for 1.9-12.5 years (mean=6.5 years). All participants were free of self-reported cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at baseline. METHODS: Glycaemic index and GL were calculated on the basis of dietary intake assessed by food frequency questionnaires and by using a GI table developed for this study with published GI values as the main sources. Anthropometric data were collected both at baseline and at the end of follow-up. Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted in each centre and random-effect meta-analyses were used to combine the effects. Adjustment was made for baseline anthropometrics, demographic and lifestyle factors, follow-up duration and other dietary factors. RESULTS: Mean GI and GL were 57 and 134, respectively. Associations of GI and GL with subsequent changes of weight and waist circumference were heterogeneous across centres. Overall, with every 10-unit higher in GI, weight increased by 34 g per year (95% confidence interval (CI): -47, 115) and waist circumference increased by 0.19 cm per year (95% CI: 0.11, 0.27). With every 50-unit higher in GL, weight increased by 10 g per year (95% CI: -65, 85) and waist circumference increased by 0.06 cm per year (95% CI: -0.01, 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support an effect of GI or GL on weight change. The positively significant association between GI, not GL, and subsequent gain in waist circumference may imply a beneficial role of lower GI diets in the prevention of abdominal obesity. However, further studies are needed to confirm this finding given the small effect observed in this study.

The association between a biomarker score for fruit and vegetable intake and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Biomarkers for a mixed fruit and vegetable (FV) diet are needed to provide a better understanding of the association between FV intake and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to examine the prospective association between a composite score comprised of three biomarkers of FV intake in free-living populations and incident diabetes. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 318 incident diabetes cases and 926 controls from the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997), completed 7-day prospective food diary and had plasma vitamin C and carotenoid measures. A composite biomarker score (CB-score) comprising the sum of plasma vitamin C, beta-carotene and lutein was derived. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A strong inverse association was found between the CB-score and incident diabetes. The ORs (95% CI) of diabetes comparing quartiles Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the CB-score with Q1 (reference category) were 0.70 (0.49, 1.00), 0.34 (0.23, 0.52) and 0.19 (0.12, 0.32), respectively, and 0.49 (0.40, 0.58) per s.d. change in CB-score in a model adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors. The association was marginally attenuated after additionally adjusting for body mass index and waist circumference (0.60 (0.49 and 0.74) per s.d. change in CB-score). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of biomarkers representing the intake of a mixed FV diet was strongly inversely associated with incident diabetes. These findings provide further support for measuring dietary biomarkers in studies of diet-disease associations and highlight the importance of consuming FV for the prevention of diabetes.