Integrated Assessment of the Leading Paths to Mitigate CO2 Emissions from the Organic Chemical and Plastics Industry.

The chemical industry is a major and growing source of CO2 emissions. Here, we extend the principal U.S.-based integrated assessment model, GCAM, to include a representation of steam cracking, the dominant process in the organic chemical industry today, and a suite of emerging decarbonization strategies, including catalytic cracking, lower-carbon process heat, and feedstock switching. We find that emerging catalytic production technologies only have a small impact on midcentury emissions mitigation. In contrast, process heat generation could achieve strong mitigation, reducing associated CO2 emissions by ∼76% by 2050. Process heat generation is diversified to include carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, and electrification. A sensitivity analysis reveals that our results for future net CO2 emissions are most sensitive to the amount of CCS deployed globally. The system as defined cannot reach net-zero emissions if the share of incineration increases as projected without coupling incineration with CCS. Less organic chemicals are produced in a net-zero CO2 future than those in a no-policy scenario. Mitigation of feedstock emissions relies heavily on biogenic carbon used as an alternative feedstock and waste treatment of plastics. The only scenario that delivers net-negative CO2 emissions from the organic chemical sector (by 2070) combines greater use of biogenic feedstocks with a continued reliance on landfilling of waste plastic, versus recycling or incineration, which has trade-offs.

The Science, Engineering, and Validation of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage.

Scenarios to stabilize global climate and meet international climate agreements require rapid reductions in human carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, often augmented by substantial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. While some ocean-based removal techniques show potential promise as part of a broader CDR and decarbonization portfolio, no marine approach is ready yet for deployment at scale because of gaps in both scientific and engineering knowledge. Marine CDR spans a wide range of biotic and abiotic methods, with both common and technique-specific limitations. Further targeted research is needed on CDR efficacy, permanence, and additionality as well as on robust validation methods-measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification-that are essential to demonstrate the safe removal and long-term storage of CO2. Engineering studies are needed on constraints including scalability, costs, resource inputs, energy demands, and technical readiness. Research on possible co-benefits, ocean acidification effects, environmental and social impacts, and governance is also required.