Prediction of mortality in acute pulmonary embolism in cancer-associated thrombosis (MAUPE-C): derivation and validation of a multivariable model.

Optimal risk stratification of patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE) remains unclear. We constructed a clinical prediction rule (CPR) named 'MAUPE-C' to identify patients with low 30 days mortality. The study retrospectively developed and internally validated a CPR for 30 days mortality in a cohort of patients with cancer and PE (both suspected and unsuspected). Candidate variables were chosen based on the EPIPHANY study, which categorized patients into 3 groups based on symptoms, signs, suspicion and patient setting at PE diagnosis. The performance of 'MAUPE-C' was compared to RIETE and sPESI scores. Univariate analysis confirmed that the presence of symptoms, signs, suspicion and inpatient diagnosis were associated with 30 days mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis led to the exclusion of symptoms as predictive variable. 'MAUPE-C' was developed by assigning weights to risk factors related to the ß coefficient, yielding a score range of 0 to 4.5. After receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a cutoff point was established at ≤ 1. Prognostic accuracy was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.82), outperforming RIETE and sPESI scores in this cohort (AUC of 0.64 [95% CI 0.57-0.71] and 0.57 [95% CI 0.49-0.65], respectively). Forty-five per cent of patients were classified as low risk and experienced a 2.79% 30 days mortality. MAUPE-C has good prognostic accuracy in identifying patients at low risk of 30 days mortality. This CPR could help physicians select patients for early discharge.

Factors related to early readmissions after acute heart failure: a nested case-control study.

AIMS: To describe the main characteristics of patients who were readmitted to hospital within 1 month after an index episode for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a nested case-control study in the ReIC cohort, cases being consecutive patients readmitted after hospitalization for an episode of ADHF and matched controls selected from those who were not readmitted. We collected clinical data and also patient-reported outcome measures, including dyspnea, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores, as well as symptoms during a transition period of 1 month after discharge. We created a multivariable conditional logistic regression model. Despite cases consulted more than controls, there were no statistically significant differences in changes in treatment during this first month. Patients with chronic decompensated heart failure were 2.25 [1.25, 4.05] more likely to be readmitted than de novo patients. Previous diagnosis of arrhythmia and time since diagnosis ≥ 3 years, worsening in dyspnea, and changes in MLWHF and TFI scores were significant in the final model. CONCLUSION: We present a model with explanatory variables for readmission in the short term for ADHF. Our study shows that in addition to variables classically related to readmission, there are others related to the presence of residual congestion, quality of life and frailty that are determining factors for readmission for heart failure in the first month after discharge. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03300791. First registration: 03/10/2017.

Reference values of EORTC QLQ-C30, EORTC QLQ-BR23, and EQ-5D-5L for women with non-metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis and 2 years after.

PURPOSE: To obtain reference norms of EORTC QLQ-C30, EORTC QLQ-BR23, and EQ-5D-5L, based on a population of Spanish non-metastatic breast cancer patients at diagnosis and 2 years after, according to relevant demographic and clinical characteristics. METHODS: Multicentric prospective cohort study including consecutive women aged ≥ 18 years with a diagnosis of incident non-metastatic breast cancer from April 2013 to May 2015. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaires were administered between diagnosis and beginning the therapy, and 2 years after. HRQoL differences according to age, comorbidity and stage were tested with ANOVA or Chi Square test and multivariate linear regression models. RESULTS: 1276 patients were included, with a mean age of 58 years. Multivariate models of EORTC QLQ-C30 summary score and EQ-5D-5L index at diagnosis and at 2-year follow-up show the independent association of comorbidity and tumor stage with HRQoL. The standardized multivariate regression coefficient of EORTC QLQ-C30 summary score was lower (poorer HRQoL) for women with stage II and III than for those with stage 0 at diagnosis (- 0.11 and - 0.07, p < 0.05) and follow-up (- 0.15 and - 0.10, p < 0.01). The EQ-5D-5L index indicated poorer HRQoL for women with Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 2 than comorbidity 0 both at diagnosis (- 0.13, p < 0.001) and follow-up (- 0.18, p < 0.001). Therefore, we provided the reference norms at diagnosis and at the 2-year follow-up, stratified by age, comorbidity index, and tumor stage. CONCLUSION: These HRQoL reference norms can be useful to interpret the scores of women with non-metastatic breast cancer, comparing them with country-specific reference values for this population.

Impact of prior SARS-COV-2 infection and vaccination on COVID-19 hospital admission and mortality amongst nursing home residents.

BACKGROUND: Nursing home residents (NHRs) have experienced disproportionately high risk of severe outcomes due to COVID-19 infection. AIM: We investigated the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations and previous SARS-CoV-2 episodes in preventing hospitalization and mortality in NHRs. METHODS: Retrospective study of a cohort of all NHRs in our area who were alive at the start of the vaccination campaign. The first three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and prior COVID-19 infections were registered. The main outcomes were hospital admission and mortality during each follow up. Random effects time-varying Cox models adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) according to vaccination status. RESULTS: COVID-19 hospitalization and death rates for unvaccinated NHRs were respectively 2.39 and 1.42 per 10,000 person-days, falling after administration of the second dose (0.37 and 0.34) and rising with the third dose (1.08 and 0.8). Rates were much lower amongst people who had previously had COVID-19. Adjusted HRs indicated a significant decrease in hospital admission amongst those with a two- and three-dose status; those who had had a previous COVID-19 infection had even lower hospital admission rates. Death rates decreased as NHRs received two and three doses, and the probability of death was much lower among those who had previously had the infection. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of current vaccines against severe COVID-19 disease in NHRs remains high and SARS-CoV-2 episodes prior to vaccination entail a major reduction in hospitalization and mortality rates. The protection conferred by vaccines appears to decline in the following months. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04463706.

Effect of comorbidities on long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this work is to evaluate the association of comorbidities with various outcomes in patients diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer who underwent surgery. Data were gathered on sociodemographic, clinical characteristics, disease course, and the EuroQol EQ-5D and EORTC QLQ-C30 scores, up to 5 years after surgery. The main outcomes of the study were mortality, complications, readmissions, reoperations, and changes in PROMs up to 5 years. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression models were used in the analyses. RESULTS: Mortality at some point during the 5-year follow-up was related to cardiocerebrovascular, hemiplegia and/or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, cancer, and dementia. Similarly, complications were related to cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, hepatitis, hepatic or renal pathologies, and dementia; readmissions to cardiovascular disease, COPD, and hepatic pathologies; and reoperations to cerebrovascular and diabetes. Finally, changes in EQ-5D scores at some point during follow-up were related to cardiocerebrovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, pre-existing cancer, hepatic and gastrointestinal pathologies, and changes in EORTC QLQ-C30 scores to cardiovascular disease, COPD, diabetes, and hepatic and gastrointestinal pathologies. CONCLUSIONS: Optimising the management of the comorbidities most strongly related to adverse outcomes may help to reduce those events in these patients.

Factors that Influence Treatment Delay for Patients with Breast Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis or treatment of breast cancer is sometimes delayed. A lengthy delay may have a negative psychological impact on patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate the sociodemographic, clinical and pathological factors associated with delay in the provision of surgical treatment for localised breast cancer, in a prospective cohort of patients. METHODS: This observational, prospective, multicentre study was conducted in ten hospitals belonging to the Spanish national public health system, located in four Autonomous Communities (regions). The study included 1236 patients, diagnosed through a screening programme or found to be symptomatic, between April 2013 and May 2015. The study variables analysed included each patient's personal history, care situation, tumour history and data on the surgical intervention, pathological anatomy, hospital admission and follow-up. Treatment delay was defined as more than 30 days elapsed between biopsy and surgery. RESULTS: Over half of the study population experienced surgical treatment delay. This delay was greater for patients with no formal education and among widows, persons not requiring assistance for usual activities, those experiencing anxiety or depression, those who had a high BMI or an above-average number of comorbidities, those who were symptomatic, who did not receive NMR spectroscopy, who presented a histology other than infiltrating ductal carcinoma or who had poorly differentiated carcinomas. CONCLUSIONS: Certain sociodemographic and clinical variables are associated with surgical treatment delay. This study identifies factors that influence surgical delays, highlighting the importance of preventing these factors and of raising awareness among the population at risk and among health personnel.

A multidrug-resistant microorganism infection risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.

The aim was to develop a predictive model of infection by multidrug-resistant microorganisms (MDRO). A national, retrospective cohort study was carried out including all patients attended for an infectious disease in 54 Spanish Emergency Departments (ED), in whom a microbiological isolation was available from a culture obtained during their attention in the ED. A MDRO infection prediction model was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p < 0.05 assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then internally validated by k-fold cross-validation and in the validation cohort. A total of 5460 patients were included; 1345 (24.6%) were considered to have a MDRO infection. Twelve independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the ATM (assessment of threat for MDRO) score. The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.76 (CI 95% 0.74-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.72 (CI 95% 0.70-0.75) in the validation cohort (p = 0.0584). Patients were then split into 6 risk categories and had the following rates of risk: 7% (0-2 points), 16% (3-5 points), 24% (6-9 points), 33% (10-14 points), 47% (15-21 points), and 71% (> 21 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several patient-specific factors were independently associated with MDRO infection risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were related to an increased risk for MDRO infection. This clinical prediction rule could be used by providers to identify patients at high risk and help to guide antibiotic strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment.

Predictors of readmission and reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: To assess the impact of readmission and reoperation on colon or rectal cancer patients in clinical and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and to identify predictors of these events up to 1 year after surgery. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with colon or rectal cancer who underwent surgery at 1 of 22 hospitals. Medical history, clinical parameters, and PROMs were evaluated as possible predictors. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression and survival models were used in the analyses to create the clinical prediction rules. Models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a different sample. RESULTS: Readmission and reoperation were related to clinical outcomes and changes in some PROMs. Predictors of readmission in colon cancer were ASA class (odds ratio (OR) 4.5), TNM (OR for TNM III 3.24, TNM IV 4.55), evidence of residual tumor (R2) (OR 3.96), and medical (OR 1.96) and infectious (OR 2.01) complications within 30 days after surgery, while for rectal cancer, the predictors identified were age (OR 1.03), R2 (OR 6.48), infectious complications within 30 days (OR 2.29), hemoglobin (OR 3.26), lymph node ratio (OR 2.35), and surgical complications within 1 month (OR 3.04). Predictors of reoperation were TNM IV (OR 5.06), surgical complications within 30 days (OR 1.98), and type and site of tumor (OR 1.72) in colon cancer and being male (OR 1.52), age (OR 1.80), stoma (OR 1.87), and surgical complications within 1 month (OR 1.95) in rectal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Our clinical prediction rule models are easy to use and could help to develop and implement interventions to reduce preventable readmissions and reoperations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02488161 Identifier: NCT02488161.

Risk factors affecting hospital stay among patients undergoing colon cancer surgery: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To identify and validate risk factors that contribute to prolonged length of hospital stay (LOS) in patients undergoing resection for colorectal cancer. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 1955 patients admitted to 22 hospitals for primary resection of colorectal cancer. Multivariate analyses were used to identify and validate risk factors, randomizing patients into a derivation and a validation cohort. Multiple correspondence and cluster analysis were performed to identify clinical subtypes based on LOS. RESULTS: The strongest independent predictors of prolonged LOS were postoperative reintervention, surgical site infection, open surgery, and distant metastasis. The multiple correspondence and cluster analysis provided three groups of patients in relation to prolonged LOS: patients with the longest LOS included the highest percentage of patients with open surgery, distant metastasis, deep surgical site infections, emergency admissions, additional diagnostic factors, and highly contaminated surgical sites. Patients with prolonged LOS (> 14 days) were more likely to develop adverse outcomes within 30 days after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing resection of colorectal cancer cluster into different groups based on LOS of the index admission. Those with prolonged LOS were more likely to develop adverse outcomes within 30 days after discharge. Some of the strongest independent predictors of prolonged LOS, such as surgical infections or open surgery, could be modified to reduce LOS and, in turn, other adverse outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02488161.

Health services research in patients with breast cancer (CAMISS-prospective): study protocol for an observational prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Though breast cancer remains a major health problem, there is a lack of information on health care provided to patients with this disease and associated costs. In addition, there is a need to update and validate risk stratification tools in Spain. Our purpose is to evaluate the health services provided for breast cancer in Spain, from screening and diagnosis to treatment and prognosis. METHODS: Prospective cohort study involving 13 hospitals in Spain with a follow-up period of up to 5 years after diagnostic biopsy. Eligibility criteria: Patients diagnosed with breast cancer between April 2013 and May 2015 that have consented to participate in the study. DATA COLLECTION: Data will be collected on the following: pre-intervention medical history, biological, clinical, and sociodemographic characteristics, mode of cancer detection, hospital admission, treatment, and outcomes up to 5 years after initial treatment. Questionnaires about quality of life (EuroQoL EQ-5D-5 L, the European Organization For Research And Treatment Of Cancer Core Quality Of Life Questionnaire EORTC QLQ-C30 join to the specific breast cancer module (QLQ-BR23), as well as Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale were completed by the patients before the beginning of the initial treatment and at the end of follow-up period, 2 years later. The end-points of the study were changes in health-related quality of life, recurrence, complications and readmissions at 2 and 5 years after initial treatment. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive statistics will be calculated and multivariate models will be used where appropriate to adjust for potential confounders. In order to create and validate a prediction model, split validation and bootstrapping will be performed. Cost analysis will be carried out from the perspective of a national health system. DISCUSSION: The results of this coordinated project are expected to generate scientifically valid and clinically and socially important information to inform the decision-making of managers and the authorities responsible for ensuring equality in care processes as well in health outcomes. For clinicians, clinical prediction rules will be developed which are expected to serve as the basis for the development of software applications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02439554 . Date of registration: May 8, 2015 (retrospectively registered) .

Outcomes of open versus laparoscopic surgery in patients with rectal cancer.

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to compare the effectiveness of laparoscopic with that of open surgery up to 2 years after intervention in patients with rectal cancer. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of patients with rectal cancer who underwent surgery (laparoscopic or open) between June 2010 and December 2012 in 22 acute hospitals. Main outcomes were mortality, complications, reoperation, readmission, and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), as measured using the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D), European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-Q30 and Q29, the Barthel Index (BI), and the Duke-UNC Functional Social Support Questionnaire at baseline, 1 year, and 2 years after surgery. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression and generalized linear models were used in the analyses after adjusting for specific propensity scores developed for each outcome and time point. RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, rates of some medical complications after surgery during admission (renal failure and paralytic ileus) and infectious (urinary tract infection, septic shock, and localized intra-abdominal infection) and at 1 year (renal and heart failure) were higher among patients who underwent open surgery than among those who underwent laparoscopic surgery. There were no differences between the two surgical approaches in all other parameters assessed at the different time points or in all PROMs evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic surgery and open surgery provide quite similar results in patients with rectal cancer up to 2 years after intervention in most outcomes, though the rates of certain medical and infectious complications at admission and up to 1 year after the intervention were higher in open surgery.

Psychometric characteristics of the Spanish version of the Barthel Index.

BACKGROUND: The Barthel Index is one of the most employed questionnaires for the evaluation of functionality, but there is no information on its psychometric properties. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to evaluate the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Spanish version of the Barthel Index. METHODS: The data employed in this paper were obtained from four Spanish cohorts of elderly people of 60 years or older. We collected data on age, gender, education level, comorbidities, and questionnaires regarding functionality, health-related quality of life, depression, and social support. RESULTS: The Cronbach's alpha coefficients were greater than 0.70. The confirmatory factor analysis provided satisfactory fit indexes and factor loadings. The correlation coefficients between the Barthel Index and the other questionnaires were lower than the Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Known-groups validity showed significant differences in the Barthel Index according to age, number of comorbidities, and gender. The standardized effect size and the standardized response mean were between 0.68 and 1.81. DISCUSSION: This version of the Barthel Index has good reliability, its structural validity has been confirmed, and the questionnaire can discriminate between groups and detect changes at follow-up points. CONCLUSIONS: This questionnaire can be used in the evaluation of functionality and basic activities of daily living in elderly people with different conditions.

Factors associated with acceptance of pandemic flu vaccine by healthcare professionals in Spain, 2009-2010.

The A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus reached pandemic level in Spain in 2009, prompting a national vaccination campaign. To avoid transmission to patients, healthcare professionals' vaccination against pandemic influenza is crucial. The main objective of this study was to analyze factors associated with the failure by healthcare professionals to accept the pandemic vaccination in 2009. A cross-sectional survey was conducted of healthcare professionals in seven of Spain's autonomous regions. A questionnaire was used to collect information about personal and professional details, the respondents' flu vaccination status in the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons (seasonal and pandemic vaccines), and their knowledge and attitudes. A total of 1,661 professionals completed the survey. In the 2009-2010 season, 38.2% had both the seasonal and the pandemic vaccine, 22.1% had had only the seasonal, and 4.7% only the pandemic vaccine. The strongest predictor of not receiving the pandemic vaccine was not having had seasonal vaccinations in that year or the previous year. Those who had not received the pandemic vaccine were more often female; nurses; under 45; denied contact with at-risk groups; and had negative beliefs about the vaccine effectiveness and little concern for getting the disease, being infected at work, or passing it on to patients. It would be prudent to direct preventive campaigns not only at individuals at risk of catching flu but also at health professionals with a negative view of flu vaccine, with a particular focus on nurses, who have a key role in recommending flu vaccine.

Colorectal cancer health services research study protocol: the CCR-CARESS observational prospective cohort project.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancers are one of the most common forms of malignancy worldwide. But two significant areas of research less studied deserve attention: health services use and development of patient stratification risk tools for these patients. DESIGN: a prospective multicenter cohort study with a follow up period of up to 5 years after surgical intervention. Participant centers: 22 hospitals representing six autonomous communities of Spain. Participants/Study population: Patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer that have undergone surgical intervention and have consented to participate in the study between June 2010 and December 2012. Variables collected include pre-intervention background, sociodemographic parameters, hospital admission records, biological and clinical parameters, treatment information, and outcomes up to 5 years after surgical intervention. Patients completed the following questionnaires prior to surgery and in the follow up period: EuroQol-5D, EORTC QLQ-C30 (The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire) and QLQ-CR29 (module for colorectal cancer), the Duke Functional Social Support Questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the Barthel Index. The main endpoints of the study are mortality, tumor recurrence, major complications, readmissions, and changes in health-related quality of life at 30 days and at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years after surgical intervention. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: In relation to the different endpoints, predictive models will be used by means of multivariate logistic models, Cox or linear mixed-effects regression models. Simulation models for the prediction of discrete events in the long term will also be used, and an economic evaluation of different treatment strategies will be performed through the use of generalized linear models. DISCUSSION: The identification of potential risk factors for adverse events may help clinicians in the clinical decision making process. Also, the follow up by 5 years of this large cohort of patients may provide useful information to answer different health services research questions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161 . Registration date: June 16, 2015.

Wrist fractures and their impact in daily living functionality on elderly people: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Wrist fractures are the most common arm fractures in older adults. The impact of wrist fractures on daily functionality has been less studied than that of other types and so, less is known about the complexity of factors related to the functional impact of these fractures. This study is aimed to assess the role of individual and health care factors and its association with daily living functional changes after a wrist fracture. METHODS: A prospective cohort of patients aged 65 or more, affected by a fracture due to a fall, was conducted. These patients were identified at the emergency rooms of the six participating hospitals. As independent factors, the following were studied: socio-demographic data, characteristics of the fracture, health-related quality of life, wrist function and provided treatment. The main outcome was functional status measured by the Barthel Index for daily living basic activities and the Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) Scale for daily living instrumental activities. Data were collected at baseline just after the fall and after six months of follow-up. Patients were considered to have deteriorated if their functional status as measured by Barthel Index or Lawton IADL scores decreased in a significant way during the six months of follow up. RESULTS: Barthel Index and/or Lawton IADL scores fell at six months after the fracture in 33% of participants. This functional decline was more frequent in patients with comorbidity (p < 0.0001), polypharmacy (p < 0.0001), low health-related quality of life prior to the fall (p < 0.0001) and lower educational level (p = 0.009). The derived multivariate models show that patients that become dependent six months after the fall, have advanced age, severe chronic diseases, low functional performance prior to the fracture, and repeated episodes of accidental falls. This profile is consistent with a frailty phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: Wrist fractures are associated to the occurrence of dependence, especially in frail patients. These patients could benefit from being identified at the time the fracture is treated, in order to tackle their complex needs and so, prevent some of the burden of dependence generated by these fractures.

Factors related to a decline in upper extremity function among patients with a wrist fracture due to a fall.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify factors related to a decline in function following a wrist fracture. METHODS: Observational, prospective cohort study done in five public hospitals of the Basque Health Service. We recruited adults aged 65 or older with a wrist fracture due to a fall who attended the emergency department (ED) of one of these hospitals. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected, along with information about health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and functionality. RESULTS: A decline in function 6 months after the fracture was more likely among women (OR=3.409; 95% CI=1.920-6.053), patients receiving institutional help before the fracture (OR=5.717; 95% CI=1.644-19.883), patients who developed fracture-related complications within 6 months of the fall (OR=5.015; 95% CI=1.377-18.268), patients who visited an ED within 6 months of the fall (OR=1.646; 95% CI=1.058-2.561), patients with a displaced fracture (OR=1.595; 95% CI=1.106-2.300), and patients who broke the dominant hand (OR=1.464; 95% CI=1.019-2.103). Better baseline HRQoL and function were associated with smaller declines in function 6 months after the fall. Eighteen months after the fall, decline in function was more likely among women (OR=2.172; 95% CI=1.138-4.144) and patients visiting an ED because of fracture-related complications (OR=1.722; 95% CI=1.113-2.663). Better HRQoL and dependency level at baseline were associated with less decline in function 18 months after the fracture. DISCUSSION: Two different models identified several parameters related to declines in upper extremity function 6 and 18 months after the fracture. CONCLUSIONS: These results can help develop preventive actions needed to avoid or reduce the consequences of these falls.

Predictors of Change in Dyspnea Level in Acute Exacerbations of COPD.

The aim of this study was to identify factors related to changes in dyspnoea level in the acute and short-term periods after acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This was a prospective cohort study of patients with symptoms of acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation who attended one of 17 hospitals in Spain between June 2008 and September 2010. Clinical data and patient reported measures (dyspnoea level, health-related quality of life, anxiety and depression levels, capacity to perform physical activity) were collected from arrival to the emergency department up to a week after the visit in discharged patients and to discharge in admitted patients (short term). Main outcomes were time course of dyspnoea over the acute (first 24 hours) and short-term periods, mortality and readmission within 2 months of the index episode. Changes in dyspnoea in both periods were related capacity to perform physical activity as well as clinical variables. Short-term changes in dyspnoea were also related to dyspnoea at 24 hours after the ED visit, and anxiety and depression levels. Dyspnoea worsening or failing to improve over the studied periods was associated with poor clinical outcomes. Patient-reported measures are predictive of changes in dyspnoea level.

One-year Mortality in COPD After an Exacerbation: The Effect of Physical Activity Changes During the Event.

Mortality is one of the most important outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Different predictors have been associated with mortality, including the patient's level of physical activity (PA). The objective of this work was to establish the relationship between changes in PA during a moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbation (eCOPD) and 1-year mortality after the index event. This was a prospective observational cohort study with recruitment of 2,484 patients with an eCOPD attending the emergency department (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Variables recorded included clinical and sociodemographic data from medical records, dyspnea, health-related quality of life, and PA before the index eCOPD and 2 months after the hospital or ED discharge, as reported by the patient. In the multivariate analysis worsening changes in PA from baseline to 2 months after the ED index visit [odds ratio (ORs) from 2.78 to 6.31] was related to 1-year mortality, using the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (OR: 1.22), and previous use of long-term domiciliary oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation at home (OR: 1.68). The same variables were also predictive in the validation sample. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the derivation and validation sample were 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. In conclusion, PA is the strongest predictor of dying in the following year, i.e., those with worsened PA from baseline to 2 months after an eCOPD or with very low PA levels have a higher risk.

A decision tree to assess short-term mortality after an emergency department visit for an exacerbation of COPD: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Creating an easy-to-use instrument to identify predictors of short-term (30/60-day) mortality after an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) could help clinicians choose specific measures of medical care to decrease mortality in these patients. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a classification and regression tree (CART) to predict short term mortality among patients evaluated in an emergency department (ED) for an eCOPD. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study including participants from 16 hospitals in Spain. COPD patients with an exacerbation attending the emergency department (ED) of any of the hospitals between June 2008 and September 2010 were recruited. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (50%) and validation samples (50%). A CART based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was created in the derivation sample and applied to the validation sample. RESULTS: Two thousand four hundred eighty-seven patients, 1252 patients in the derivation sample and 1235 in the validation sample, were enrolled in the study. Based on the results of the univariate analysis, five variables (baseline dyspnea, cardiac disease, the presence of paradoxical breathing or use of accessory inspiratory muscles, age, and Glasgow Coma Scale score) were used to build the CART. Mortality rates 30 days after discharge ranged from 0% to 55% in the five CART classes. The lowest mortality rate was for the branch composed of low baseline dyspnea and lack of cardiac disease. The highest mortality rate was in the branch with the highest baseline dyspnea level, use of accessory inspiratory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival, and Glasgow score <15. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) in the derivation sample was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.783, 0.888) and 0.794 (95% CI: 0.723, 0.865) in the validation sample. CART was improved to predict 60-days mortality risk by adding the Charlson Comorbidity Index, reaching an AUC in the derivation sample of 0.817 (95% CI: 0.776, 0.859) and 0.770 (95% CI: 0.716, 0.823) in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several easy-to-determine variables that allow clinicians to classify eCOPD patients by short term mortality risk, which can provide useful information for establishing appropriate clinical care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02434536.