Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Transport features predict if a molecule is odorous.

In studies of vision and audition, stimuli can be chosen to span the visible or audible spectrum; in olfaction, the axes and boundaries defining the analogous odorous space are unknown. As a result, the population of olfactory space is likewise unknown, and anecdotal estimates of 10,000 odorants have endured. The journey a molecule must take to reach olfactory receptors (ORs) and produce an odor percept suggests some chemical criteria for odorants: a molecule must 1) be volatile enough to enter the air phase, 2) be nonvolatile and hydrophilic enough to sorb into the mucous layer coating the olfactory epithelium, 3) be hydrophobic enough to enter an OR binding pocket, and 4) activate at least one OR. Here, we develop a simple and interpretable quantitative model that reliably predicts whether a molecule is odorous or odorless based solely on the first three criteria. Applying our model to a database of all possible small organic molecules, we estimate that at least 40 billion possible compounds are odorous, six orders of magnitude larger than current estimates of 10,000. With this model in hand, we can define the boundaries of olfactory space in terms of molecular volatility and hydrophobicity, enabling representative sampling of olfactory stimulus space.

On the Role of Theory and Modeling in Neuroscience.

In recent years, the field of neuroscience has gone through rapid experimental advances and a significant increase in the use of quantitative and computational methods. This growth has created a need for clearer analyses of the theory and modeling approaches used in the field. This issue is particularly complex in neuroscience because the field studies phenomena that cross a wide range of scales and often require consideration at varying degrees of abstraction, from precise biophysical interactions to the computations they implement. We argue that a pragmatic perspective of science, in which descriptive, mechanistic, and normative models and theories each play a distinct role in defining and bridging levels of abstraction, will facilitate neuroscientific practice. This analysis leads to methodological suggestions, including selecting a level of abstraction that is appropriate for a given problem, identifying transfer functions to connect models and data, and the use of models themselves as a form of experiment.

NeuroML-DB: Sharing and characterizing data-driven neuroscience models described in NeuroML.

As researchers develop computational models of neural systems with increasing sophistication and scale, it is often the case that fully de novo model development is impractical and inefficient. Thus arises a critical need to quickly find, evaluate, re-use, and build upon models and model components developed by other researchers. We introduce the NeuroML Database (NeuroML-DB.org), which has been developed to address this need and to complement other model sharing resources. NeuroML-DB stores over 1,500 previously published models of ion channels, cells, and networks that have been translated to the modular NeuroML model description language. The database also provides reciprocal links to other neuroscience model databases (ModelDB, Open Source Brain) as well as access to the original model publications (PubMed). These links along with Neuroscience Information Framework (NIF) search functionality provide deep integration with other neuroscience community modeling resources and greatly facilitate the task of finding suitable models for reuse. Serving as an intermediate language, NeuroML and its tooling ecosystem enable efficient translation of models to other popular simulator formats. The modular nature also enables efficient analysis of a large number of models and inspection of their properties. Search capabilities of the database, together with web-based, programmable online interfaces, allow the community of researchers to rapidly assess stored model electrophysiology, morphology, and computational complexity properties. We use these capabilities to perform a database-scale analysis of neuron and ion channel models and describe a novel tetrahedral structure formed by cell model clusters in the space of model properties and features. This analysis provides further information about model similarity to enrich database search.

The Adaptive Olfactory Measure of Threshold (ArOMa-T): a rapid test of olfactory function.

Many widely used psychophysical olfactory tests have limitations that can create barriers to adoption. For example, tests that measure the ability to identify odors may confound sensory performance with memory recall, verbal ability, and prior experience with the odor. Conversely, classic threshold-based tests avoid these issues, but are labor intensive. Additionally, many commercially available tests are slow and may require a trained administrator, making them impractical for use in situations where time is at a premium or self-administration is required. We tested the performance of the Adaptive Olfactory Measure of Threshold (ArOMa-T)-a novel odor detection threshold test that employs an adaptive Bayesian algorithm paired with a disposable odorant delivery card-in a non-clinical sample of individuals (n = 534) at the 2021 Twins Day Festival in Twinsburg, OH. Participants successfully completed the test in under 3 min with a false alarm rate of 7.5% and a test-retest reliability of 0.61. Odor detection thresholds differed by sex (~3.2-fold lower for females) and age (~8.7-fold lower for the youngest versus the oldest age group), consistent with prior studies. In an exploratory analysis, we failed to observe evidence of detection threshold differences between participants who reported a history of COVID-19 and matched controls who did not. We also found evidence for broad-sense heritability of odor detection thresholds. Together, this study suggests the ArOMa-T can determine odor detection thresholds. Additional validation studies are needed to confirm the value of ArOMa-T in clinical or field settings where rapid and portable assessment of olfactory function is needed.

Changes in pairwise correlations during running reshape global network state in the main olfactory bulb.

Neural codes for sensory inputs have been hypothesized to reside in a broader space defined by ongoing patterns of spontaneous activity. To understand the structure of this spontaneous activity in the olfactory system, we performed high-density recordings of neural populations in the main olfactory bulb of awake mice. We observed changes in pairwise correlations of spontaneous activity between mitral and tufted (M/T) cells when animals were running, which resulted in an increase in the entropy of the population. Surprisingly, pairwise maximum entropy models that described the population activity using only assumptions about the firing rates and correlations of neurons were better at predicting the global structure of activity when animals were stationary as compared to when they were running, implying that higher order (3rd, 4th order) interactions governed population activity during locomotion. Taken together, we found that locomotion alters the functional interactions that shape spontaneous population activity at the earliest stages of olfactory processing, one synapse away from the sensory receptors in the nasal epithelium. These data suggest that the coding space available for sensory representations responds adaptively to the animal's behavioral state.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The organization and structure of spontaneous population activity in the olfactory system places constraints of how odor information is represented. Using high-density electrophysiological recordings of mitral and tufted cells, we found that running increases the dimensionality of spontaneous activity, implicating higher order interactions among neurons during locomotion. Behavior, thus, flexibly alters neuronal activity at the earliest stages of sensory processing.

Parsing Sage and Rosemary in Time: The Machine Learning Race to Crack Olfactory Perception.

Color and pitch perception are largely understandable from characteristics of physical stimuli: the wavelengths of light and sound waves, respectively. By contrast, understanding olfactory percepts from odorous stimuli (volatile molecules) is much more challenging. No intuitive set of molecular features is up to the task. Here in Chemical Senses, the Ray lab reports using a predictive modeling framework-first breaking molecular structure into thousands of features and then using this to train a predictive statistical model on a wide range of perceptual descriptors-to create a tool for predicting the odor character of hundreds of thousands of available but previously uncharacterized molecules (Kowalewski et al. 2021). This will allow future investigators to representatively sample the space of odorous molecules as well as identify previously unknown odorants with a target odor character. Here, I put this work into the context of other modeling efforts and highlight the urgent need for large new datasets and transparent benchmarks for the field to make and evaluate modeling breakthroughs, respectively.

Recent Smell Loss Is the Best Predictor of COVID-19 Among Individuals With Recent Respiratory Symptoms.

In a preregistered, cross-sectional study, we investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19 using a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0-100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n = 4148) or negative (C19-; n = 546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified univariate and multivariate predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery. Both C19+ and C19- groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean ± SD, C19+: -82.5 ± 27.2 points; C19-: -59.8 ± 37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both univariate and multivariate models (ROC AUC = 0.72). Additional variables provide negligible model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms (e.g., fever). Olfactory recovery within 40 days of respiratory symptom onset was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since respiratory symptom onset. We find that quantified smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19 amongst those with symptoms of respiratory illness. To aid clinicians and contact tracers in identifying individuals with a high likelihood of having COVID-19, we propose a novel 0-10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss, the ODoR-19. We find that numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (4 < OR < 10). Once independently validated, this tool could be deployed when viral lab tests are impractical or unavailable.

More Than Smell-COVID-19 Is Associated With Severe Impairment of Smell, Taste, and Chemesthesis.

Recent anecdotal and scientific reports have provided evidence of a link between COVID-19 and chemosensory impairments, such as anosmia. However, these reports have downplayed or failed to distinguish potential effects on taste, ignored chemesthesis, and generally lacked quantitative measurements. Here, we report the development, implementation, and initial results of a multilingual, international questionnaire to assess self-reported quantity and quality of perception in 3 distinct chemosensory modalities (smell, taste, and chemesthesis) before and during COVID-19. In the first 11 days after questionnaire launch, 4039 participants (2913 women, 1118 men, and 8 others, aged 19-79) reported a COVID-19 diagnosis either via laboratory tests or clinical assessment. Importantly, smell, taste, and chemesthetic function were each significantly reduced compared to their status before the disease. Difference scores (maximum possible change ±100) revealed a mean reduction of smell (-79.7 ± 28.7, mean ± standard deviation), taste (-69.0 ± 32.6), and chemesthetic (-37.3 ± 36.2) function during COVID-19. Qualitative changes in olfactory ability (parosmia and phantosmia) were relatively rare and correlated with smell loss. Importantly, perceived nasal obstruction did not account for smell loss. Furthermore, chemosensory impairments were similar between participants in the laboratory test and clinical assessment groups. These results show that COVID-19-associated chemosensory impairment is not limited to smell but also affects taste and chemesthesis. The multimodal impact of COVID-19 and the lack of perceived nasal obstruction suggest that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus strain 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may disrupt sensory-neural mechanisms.

Experience-dependent tuning of early olfactory processing in the adult honey bee, Apis mellifera.

Experience-dependent plasticity in the central nervous system allows an animal to adapt its responses to stimuli over different time scales. In this study, we explored the impacts of adult foraging experience on early olfactory processing by comparing naturally foraging honey bees, Apis mellifera, with those that experienced a chronic reduction in adult foraging experience. We placed age-matched sets of sister honey bees into two different olfactory conditions, in which animals were allowed to forage ad libitum In one condition, we restricted foraging experience by placing honey bees in a tent in which both sucrose and pollen resources were associated with a single odor. In the second condition, honey bees were allowed to forage freely and therefore encounter a diversity of naturally occurring resource-associated olfactory experiences. We found that honey bees with restricted foraging experiences had altered antennal lobe development. We measured the glomerular responses to odors using calcium imaging in the antennal lobe, and found that natural olfactory experience also enhanced the inter-individual variation in glomerular response profiles to odors. Additionally, we found that honey bees with adult restricted foraging experience did not distinguish relevant components of an odor mixture in a behavioral assay as did their freely foraging siblings. This study highlights the impacts of individual experience on early olfactory processing at multiple levels.

Modeling sources of interlaboratory variability in electrophysiological properties of mammalian neurons.

Patch-clamp electrophysiology is widely used to characterize neuronal electrical phenotypes. However, there are no standard experimental conditions for in vitro whole cell patch-clamp electrophysiology, complicating direct comparisons between data sets. In this study, we sought to understand how basic experimental conditions differ among laboratories and how these differences might impact measurements of electrophysiological parameters. We curated the compositions of external bath solutions (artificial cerebrospinal fluid), internal pipette solutions, and other methodological details such as animal strain and age from 509 published neurophysiology articles studying rodent neurons. We found that very few articles used the exact same experimental solutions as any other, and some solution differences stem from recipe inheritance from advisor to advisee as well as changing trends over the years. Next, we used statistical models to understand how the use of different experimental conditions impacts downstream electrophysiological measurements such as resting potential and action potential width. Although these experimental condition features could explain up to 43% of the study-to-study variance in electrophysiological parameters, the majority of the variability was left unexplained. Our results suggest that there are likely additional experimental factors that contribute to cross-laboratory electrophysiological variability, and identifying and addressing these will be important to future efforts to assemble consensus descriptions of neurophysiological phenotypes for mammalian cell types. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This article describes how using different experimental methods during patch-clamp electrophysiology impacts downstream physiological measurements. We characterized how methodologies and experimental solutions differ across articles. We found that differences in methods can explain some, but not all, of the study-to-study variance in electrophysiological measurements. Explicitly accounting for methodological differences using statistical models can help correct downstream electrophysiological measurements for cross-laboratory methodology differences.

Comparative study of chemical neuroanatomy of the olfactory neuropil in mouse, honey bee, and human.

Despite divergent evolutionary origins, the organization of olfactory systems is remarkably similar across phyla. In both insects and mammals, sensory input from receptor cells is initially processed in synaptically dense regions of neuropil called glomeruli, where neural activity is shaped by local inhibition and centrifugal neuromodulation prior to being sent to higher-order brain areas by projection neurons. Here we review both similarities and several key differences in the neuroanatomy of the olfactory system in honey bees, mice, and humans, using a combination of literature review and new primary data. We have focused on the chemical identity and the innervation patterns of neuromodulatory inputs in the primary olfactory system. Our findings show that serotonergic fibers are similarly distributed across glomeruli in all three species. Octopaminergic/tyraminergic fibers in the honey bee also have a similar distribution, and possibly a similar function, to noradrenergic fibers in the mammalian OBs. However, preliminary evidence suggests that human OB may be relatively less organized than its counterparts in honey bee and mouse.

High-speed odor transduction and pulse tracking by insect olfactory receptor neurons.

Sensory systems encode both the static quality of a stimulus (e.g., color or shape) and its kinetics (e.g., speed and direction). The limits with which stimulus kinetics can be resolved are well understood in vision, audition, and somatosensation. However, the maximum temporal resolution of olfactory systems has not been accurately determined. Here, we probe the limits of temporal resolution in insect olfaction by delivering high frequency odor pulses and measuring sensory responses in the antennae. We show that transduction times and pulse tracking capabilities of olfactory receptor neurons are faster than previously reported. Once an odorant arrives at the boundary layer of the antenna, odor transduction can occur within less than 2 ms and fluctuating odor stimuli can be resolved at frequencies more than 100 Hz. Thus, insect olfactory receptor neurons can track stimuli of very short duration, as occur when their antennae encounter narrow filaments in an odor plume. These results provide a new upper bound to the kinetics of odor tracking in insect olfactory receptor neurons and to the latency of initial transduction events in olfaction.

Origins of correlated spiking in the mammalian olfactory bulb.

Mitral/tufted (M/T) cells of the main olfactory bulb transmit odorant information to higher brain structures. The relative timing of action potentials across M/T cells has been proposed to encode this information and to be critical for the activation of downstream neurons. Using ensemble recordings from the mouse olfactory bulb in vivo, we measured how correlations between cells are shaped by stimulus (odor) identity, common respiratory drive, and other cells' activity. The shared respiration cycle is the largest source of correlated firing, but even after accounting for all observable factors a residual positive noise correlation was observed. Noise correlation was maximal on a ∼100-ms timescale and was seen only in cells separated by <200 µm. This correlation is explained primarily by common activity in groups of nearby cells. Thus, M/T-cell correlation principally reflects respiratory modulation and sparse, local network connectivity, with odor identity accounting for a minor component.

Intermediate intrinsic diversity enhances neural population coding.

Cell-to-cell variability in molecular, genetic, and physiological features is increasingly recognized as a critical feature of complex biological systems, including the brain. Although such variability has potential advantages in robustness and reliability, how and why biological circuits assemble heterogeneous cells into functional groups is poorly understood. Here, we develop analytic approaches toward answering how neuron-level variation in intrinsic biophysical properties of olfactory bulb mitral cells influences population coding of fluctuating stimuli. We capture the intrinsic diversity of recorded populations of neurons through a statistical approach based on generalized linear models. These models are flexible enough to predict the diverse responses of individual neurons yet provide a common reference frame for comparing one neuron to the next. We then use Bayesian stimulus decoding to ask how effectively different populations of mitral cells, varying in their diversity, encode a common stimulus. We show that a key advantage provided by physiological levels of intrinsic diversity is more efficient and more robust encoding of stimuli by the population as a whole. However, we find that the populations that best encode stimulus features are not simply the most heterogeneous, but those that balance diversity with the benefits of neural similarity.

Brain-wide analysis of electrophysiological diversity yields novel categorization of mammalian neuron types.

For decades, neurophysiologists have characterized the biophysical properties of a rich diversity of neuron types. However, identifying common features and computational roles shared across neuron types is made more difficult by inconsistent conventions for collecting and reporting biophysical data. Here, we leverage NeuroElectro, a literature-based database of electrophysiological properties (www.neuroelectro.org), to better understand neuronal diversity, both within and across neuron types, and the confounding influences of methodological variability. We show that experimental conditions (e.g., electrode types, recording temperatures, or animal age) can explain a substantial degree of the literature-reported biophysical variability observed within a neuron type. Critically, accounting for experimental metadata enables massive cross-study data normalization and reveals that electrophysiological data are far more reproducible across laboratories than previously appreciated. Using this normalized dataset, we find that neuron types throughout the brain cluster by biophysical properties into six to nine superclasses. These classes include intuitive clusters, such as fast-spiking basket cells, as well as previously unrecognized clusters, including a novel class of cortical and olfactory bulb interneurons that exhibit persistent activity at theta-band frequencies.

Accurately estimating neuronal correlation requires a new spike-sorting paradigm.

Neurophysiology is increasingly focused on identifying coincident activity among neurons. Strong inferences about neural computation are made from the results of such studies, so it is important that these results be accurate. However, the preliminary step in the analysis of such data, the assignment of spike waveforms to individual neurons ("spike-sorting"), makes a critical assumption which undermines the analysis: that spikes, and hence neurons, are independent. We show that this assumption guarantees that coincident spiking estimates such as correlation coefficients are biased. We also show how to eliminate this bias. Our solution involves sorting spikes jointly, which contrasts with the current practice of sorting spikes independently of other spikes. This new "ensemble sorting" yields unbiased estimates of coincident spiking, and permits more data to be analyzed with confidence, improving the quality and quantity of neurophysiological inferences. These results should be of interest outside the context of neuronal correlations studies. Indeed, simultaneous recording of many neurons has become the rule rather than the exception in experiments, so it is essential to spike sort correctly if we are to make valid inferences about any properties of, and relationships between, neurons.

Transient loss and recovery of oral chemesthesis, taste and smell with COVID-19: a small case-control series.

Anosmia is common with respiratory virus infections, but loss of taste or chemesthesis is rare. Reports of true taste loss with COVID-19 were viewed skeptically until confirmed by multiple studies. Nasal menthol thresholds are elevated in some with prior COVID-19 infections, but data on oral chemesthesis are lacking. Many patients recover quickly, but precise timing and synchrony of recovery are unclear. Here, we collected broad sensory measures over 28 days, recruiting adults (18-45 years) who were COVID-19 positive or recently exposed (close contacts per U.S. CDC criteria at the time of the study) in the first half of 2021. Participants received nose clips, red commercial jellybeans (Sour Cherry and Cinnamon), and scratch-n-sniff cards (ScentCheckPro). Among COVID-19 cases who entered the study on or before Day 10 of infection, Gaussian Process Regression showed odor identification and odor intensity (two distinct measures of function) each declined relative to controls (close contacts who never developed COVID-19), but effects were larger for intensity than identification. To assess changes during early onset, we identified four COVID-19 cases who enrolled on or prior to Day 1 of their illness â€" this allowed for visualization of baseline ratings, loss, and recovery of function over time. Four controls were matched for age, gender, and race. Variables included sourness and sweetness (Sour Cherry jellybeans), oral burn (Cinnamon jellybeans), mean orthonasal intensity of four odors (ScentCheckPro), and perceived nasal blockage. Data were plotted over 28 days, creating panel plots for the eight cases and controls. Controls exhibited stable ratings over time. By contrast, COVID-19 cases showed sharp deviations over time. No single pattern of taste loss or recovery was apparent, implying different taste qualities might recover at different rates. Oral burn was transiently reduced for some before recovering quickly, suggesting acute loss may be missed in data collected after acute illness ends. Changes in odor intensity or odor identification were not explained by nasal blockage. Collectively, intensive daily testing shows orthonasal smell, oral chemesthesis and taste were each altered by acute COVID-19 infection, and this disruption was dyssynchronous for different modalities, with variable loss and recovery rates across modalities and individuals.

Transient loss and recovery of oral chemesthesis, taste and smell with COVID-19: A small case-control series.

Transient loss of smell is a common symptom of influenza and other upper respiratory infections. Loss of taste is possible but rare with these illnesses, and patient reports of 'taste loss' typically arise from a taste / flavor confusion. Thus, initial reports from COVID-19 patients of loss of taste and chemesthesis (i.e., chemical somatosensation like warming or cooling) were met with skepticism until multiple studies confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections could disrupt these senses. Many studies have been based on self-report or on single time point assessments after acute illness was ended. Here, we describe intensive longitudinal data over 28 days from adults aged 18-45 years recruited in early 2021 (i.e., prior to the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 waves). These individuals were either COVID-19 positive or close contacts (per U.S. CDC criteria at the time of the study) in the first half of 2021. Upon enrollment, all participants were given nose clips, blinded samples of commercial jellybeans (Sour Cherry and Cinnamon), and scratch-n-sniff odor identification test cards (ScentCheckPro), which they used for daily assessments. In COVID-19 cases who enrolled on or before Day 10 of infection, Gaussian Process Regression showed two distinct measures of function - odor identification and odor intensity - declined relative to controls (exposed individuals who never developed COVID-19). Because enrollment began upon exposure, some participants became ill only after enrollment, which allowed us to capture baseline ratings, onset of loss, and recovery. Data from these four cases and four age- and sex- matched controls were plotted over 28 days to create panel plots. Variables included mean orthonasal intensity of four odors (ScentCheckPro), perceived nasal blockage, oral burn (Cinnamon jellybeans), and sourness and sweetness (Sour Cherry jellybeans). Controls exhibited stable ratings over time. By contrast, COVID-19 cases showed sharp deviations over time. Changes in odor intensity or odor identification were not explained by nasal blockage. No single pattern of taste loss or recovery was apparent, implying different taste qualities might recover at different rates. Oral burn was transiently reduced for some before recovering quickly, suggesting acute loss may be missed in datasets collected only after illness ends. Collectively, intensive daily testing shows orthonasal smell, oral chemesthesis and taste were each altered by acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. This disruption was dyssynchronous for different modalities, with variable loss and recovery rates across both modalities and individuals.