Trends in survival of children with severe congenital heart defects by gestational age at birth: A population-based study using administrative hospital data for England.

BACKGROUND: Children with congenital heart defects (CHD) are twice as likely as their peers to be born preterm (<37 weeks' gestation), yet descriptions of recent trends in long-term survival by gestational age at birth (GA) are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To quantify changes in survival to age 5 years of children in England with severe CHD by GA. METHODS: We estimated changes in survival to age five of children with severe CHD and all other children born in England between April 2004 and March 2016, overall and by GA-group using linked hospital and mortality records. RESULTS: Of 5,953,598 livebirths, 5.7% (339,080 of 5,953,598) were born preterm, 0.35% (20,648 of 5,953,598) died before age five and 3.6 per 1000 (21,291 of 5,953,598) had severe CHD. Adjusting for GA, under-five mortality rates fell at a similar rate between 2004-2008 and 2012-2016 for children with severe CHD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.79, 95% CI 0.71, 0.88) and all other children (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.76, 0.81). For children with severe CHD, overall survival to age five increased from 87.5% (95% CI 86.6, 88.4) in 2004-2008 to 89.6% (95% CI 88.9, 90.3) in 2012-2016. There was strong evidence for better survival in the ≥39-week group (90.2%, 95% CI 89.1, 91.2 to 93%, 95% CI 92.4, 93.9), weaker evidence at 24-31 and 37-38 weeks and no evidence at 32-36 weeks. We estimate that 51 deaths (95% CI 24, 77) per year in children with severe CHD were averted in 2012-2016 compared to what would have been the case had 2004-2008 mortality rates persisted. CONCLUSIONS: Nine out of 10 children with severe CHD in 2012-2016 survived to age five. The small improvement in survival over the study period was driven by increased survival in term children. Most children with severe CHD are reaching school age and may require additional support by schools and healthcare services.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia subtypes: Comparing birth prevalence, occurrence by maternal age, and mortality in a national birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Population-based administrative data have rarely been used to compare the birth prevalence, risk factors for occurrence, and mortality of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) subtypes. OBJECTIVES: We used a national birth cohort to identify CDH subtypes and compared their birth prevalence, relationship with maternal age after accounting for sociodemographic factors, and 1-year mortality rates. METHODS: Linked hospital admission and death records were used to identify isolated and complex CDH cases (involving additional anomalies) among singleton livebirths in England between 2002 and 2018. The prevalence of each CDH subtype per 10,000 livebirths was estimated overall and by infant, birth and maternal characteristics. The relationship between maternal age and each subtype relative to no CDH was examined using multivariable log-binomial regression to estimate risk ratios (RRs). One-year mortality rates were examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and the hazard ratio (HR) of complex versus isolated CDH was calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 9.5 million livebirths, we identified 1285 with isolated CDH and 1150 with complex CDH. The overall prevalence of isolated and complex CDH was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3, 1.4) and 1.2 (95% CI 1.1, 1.3) per 10,000 livebirths, respectively. Only complex CDH was associated with maternal age. Compared with maternal age 25-34 years, complex CDH risk was elevated for maternal age < 20 years (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00, 1.72). Risk was highest for maternal age ≥ 40 years (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.21, 2.15) although accounting for chromosomal anomalies attenuated the risk (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.00, 1.92). The 1-year mortality rate for complex CDH (33.1%, 95% CI 30.5, 35.9) was slightly higher than for isolated CDH (29.7%, 95% CI 27.3, 32.3) (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.96, 1.27). CONCLUSIONS: Mechanisms of occurrence differed between and within CDH subtypes and 1-year mortality of complex CDH was slightly higher than for isolated CDH.

The impact of area level mental health interventions on outcomes for secondary school pupils: Evidence from the HeadStart programme in England.

In light of the dramatic rise in mental health disorders amongst adolescents seen in the past decade across the world, there is an urgent need for robust evidence on what works to combat this trend. This paper provides the first robust evaluation of the impacts on school outcomes of 6-year funding programme (HeadStart) for area-level mental health interventions for adolescents. Exploiting educational administrative data on ten cohorts of state-educated secondary school students, we use the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual outcomes for areas that received the funding. We show that the funding did not affect students' absenteeism or academic attainment, but it prevented around 800 students (c. 10% of students typically excluded yearly) from being excluded in its first year. The transient nature of this effect suggests that sustained funding for intervention may be a necessary but not sufficient condition to maintain programme effectiveness over time.

Autism spectrum disorders as a risk factor for adolescent self-harm: a retrospective cohort study of 113,286 young people in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are at particularly high risk of suicide and suicide attempts. Presentation to a hospital with self-harm is one of the strongest risk factors for later suicide. We describe the use of a novel data linkage between routinely collected education data and child and adolescent mental health data to examine whether adolescents with ASD are at higher risk than the general population of presenting to emergency care with self-harm. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on the population aged 11-17 resident in four South London boroughs between January 2009 and March 2013, attending state secondary schools, identified in the National Pupil Database (NPD). Exposure data on ASD status were derived from the NPD. We used Cox regression to model time to first self-harm presentation to the Emergency Department (ED). RESULTS: One thousand twenty adolescents presented to the ED with self-harm, and 763 matched to the NPD. The sample for analysis included 113,286 adolescents (2.2% with ASD). For boys only, there was an increased risk of self-harm associated with ASD (adjusted hazard ratio 2·79, 95% CI 1·40-5·57, P<0·01). Several other factors including school absence, exclusion from school and having been in foster care were also associated with a higher risk of self-harm. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that ASD in boys, and other educational, social and clinical factors, are risk factors for emergency presentation with self-harm in adolescents. These findings are an important step in developing early recognition and prevention programmes.

COVID-19-related school closures and patterns of hospital admissions with stress-related presentations in secondary school-aged adolescents: weekly time series.

This study examines health service indicators of stress-related presentations (relating to pain, mental illness, psychosomatic symptoms and self-harm) in adolescents of secondary school age, using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. We examined weekly time series data for three academic years spanning the time before (2018-2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), including the first lockdown when schools were closed to the majority of pupils. For all secondary school children, weekly stress presentations dropped following school closures. However, patterns of elevated stress during school terms re-established after reopening, with girls aged 11-15 showing an overall increase compared with pre-pandemic rates.

Mental health service use among mothers involved in public family law proceedings: linked data cohort study in South London 2007-2019.

PURPOSE: Mental health problems and substance misuse are common among the mothers of children who experience court-mandated placement into care in England, yet there is limited research characterising these health needs to inform evidence-based policy. In this descriptive study, we aimed to generate evidence about the type, severity, and timing of mental health and substance misuse needs among women involved in public family law proceedings concerning child placement into care ('care proceedings'). METHODS: This is a retrospective, matched cohort study using linked family court and mental health service records for 2137 (66%) of the 3226 women involved in care proceedings between 2007 and 2019 in the South London and Maudsley NHS Mental Health Trust (SLaM) catchment area. We compared mental health service use and risk of dying with 17,096 female-matched controls who accessed SLaM between 2007 and 2019, aged 16-55 years, and were not involved in care proceedings. RESULTS: Most women (79%) were known to SLaM before care proceedings began. Women had higher rates of schizophrenia spectrum disorders (19% vs 11% matched controls), personality disorders (21% vs 11%), and substance misuse (33% vs 12%). They were more likely to have a SLaM inpatient admission (27% vs 14%) or to be sectioned (19% vs 8%). Women had a 2.15 (95% CI 1.68-2.74) times greater hazard of dying, compared to matched controls, adjusted for age. CONCLUSION: Women involved in care proceedings experience a particularly high burden of severe and complex mental health and substance misuse need. Women's increased risk of mortality following proceedings highlights that interventions responding to maternal mental health and substance misuse within family courts should offer continued, long-term support.

Phenotyping congenital anomalies in administrative hospital records.

BACKGROUND: Congenital anomalies are a major cause of co-morbidity in children. Diagnostic code lists are increasingly used to identify congenital anomalies in administrative health records. Evidence is lacking on comparability of these code lists. OBJECTIVES: To compare prevalence of congenital anomalies and prognostic outcomes for children with congenital anomalies identified in administrative health records using three different code lists. METHODS: We developed national cohorts of singleton livebirths in England (n = 7 354 363, 2003-2014) and Scotland (n = 493 556, 2003-2011). Children with congenital anomalies were identified if congenital anomaly diagnosis was recorded at birth, during subsequent hospital admission or as cause of death before 2 years old. We used three code lists: the EUROCAT list for congenital anomaly surveillance in Europe; the Hardelid list developed to identify children with chronic conditions (including congenital anomalies) admitted to hospital in England; and the Feudtner list developed to indicate children with complex chronic conditions (including congenital anomalies) admitted to hospitals in the United States. We compared prevalence, and risks of postnatal hospital readmission and death according to each code list in England and Scotland. RESULTS: Prevalence of congenital anomalies was highest using the EUROCAT list (4.1% of livebirths in England, 3.7% in Scotland), followed by Hardelid (3.1% and 3.0% of livebirths, respectively) and Feudtner (1.8% and 1.5% of livebirths, respectively). 67.2%-73.3% of children with congenital anomalies in England and 65.2%-77.0% in Scotland had at least one postnatal hospital admission across the three code lists; mortality ranged between 42.6-75.4 and 41.5-88.7 deaths per 1000 births in England Scotland, respectively. The risk of these adverse outcomes was highest using Feudtner and lowest using EUROCAT code lists. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of congenital anomalies varied by congenital anomaly code list, over time and between countries, reflecting in part differences in hospital coding practices and admission thresholds. As a minimum, researchers using administrative health data to study congenital anomalies should report sensitivity analyses using different code lists.

Preterm birth, unplanned hospital contact, and mortality in infants born to teenage mothers in five countries: An administrative data cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Young maternal age is associated with lower birthweight and higher rates of preterm birth and childhood hospitalisations. Internationally, teen pregnancy rates vary widely, reflecting differences in social, welfare, and health care factors in different cultural contexts. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the increased risk of adverse infant outcomes among teenage mothers varies by country, reflecting different national teenage birth rates and country-specific social/welfare policies, in Scotland (higher teenage pregnancy rates), England, New South Wales (NSW; Australia), Ontario (Canada), and Sweden (lower rates). METHODS: We used administrative hospital data capturing 3 002 749 singleton births surviving to postnatal discharge between 2010 and 2014 (2008-2012 for Sweden). We compared preterm birth (24-36 weeks' gestation), mortality within 12 months of postnatal discharge, unplanned hospital admissions, and emergency department visits within 12 months of postnatal discharge, for infants born to mothers aged 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years. RESULTS: Compared to births to women aged 30-34 years, risks of adverse outcomes among teenage mothers were higher in all countries, but the magnitude of effects was not related to country-specific rates of teenage births. Teenage mothers had between 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7, 1.7, Sweden) and 2.0% (95% CI 1.4, 2.5, NSW) more preterm births, and between 9.8 (95% CI 7.2, 12.4, England) and 19.7 (95% CI 8.7, 30.6, Scotland) more deaths per 10 000 infants, compared with mothers aged 30-34. Between 6.4% (95% CI 5.5, 7.4, NSW) and 25.4% (95% CI 24.7, 26.1, Ontario), more infants born to teenage mothers had unplanned hospital contacts compared with those born to mothers aged 30-34. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of country, infants born to teenage mothers had universally worse outcomes than those born to older mothers. This excess risk did not vary by national rates of livebirths to teenage mothers. Current mechanisms to support teenage mothers have not eliminated maternal age-related disparities in infant outcomes; further strategies to mitigate excess risk in all countries are needed.

A scoping review of 'think-family' approaches in healthcare settings.

BACKGROUND: 'Think-family' child health approaches treat child and parent/carer health as inter-related. They are promoted within health policy internationally (also called 'family paediatrics' or 'whole-family', 'family-centred' approaches or 'child-centred' approaches within adult services). METHODS: We reviewed publications of think-family interventions. We developed a typology of these interventions using thematic analysis of data extracted from the included studies. RESULTS: We included 62 studies (60% USA and 18% UK); 45/62 (73%) treated the parent as patient, helping the child by addressing parental mental health, substance and alcohol misuse and/or domestic violence. Our typology details three common mechanisms of change in relevant interventions: screening, health promotion and developing relationships (inter-professional and parent-professional). CONCLUSIONS: Policy-makers, practitioners and researchers can use our typology to develop and evaluate think-family approaches within healthcare. Strong relationships between parents and professionals are key in think-family approaches and should be considered in service design. Although helping the child through the parent may be a good place to start for service development, care is needed to ensure parental need does not eclipse child need. Strategies that reach out to the parent behind the child (child as patient) and which work simultaneously with parent and child warrant attention.

Long-term mortality in mothers of infants with neonatal abstinence syndrome: A population-based parallel-cohort study in England and Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Opioid addiction is a major public health threat to healthy life expectancy; however, little is known of long-term mortality for mothers with opioid use in pregnancy. Pregnancy and delivery care are opportunities to improve access to addiction and supportive services. Treating neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) as a marker of opioid use during pregnancy, this study reports long-term maternal mortality among mothers with a birth affected by NAS in relation to that of mothers without a NAS-affected birth in 2 high-prevalence jurisdictions, England and Ontario, Canada. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based study using linked administrative health data to develop parallel cohorts of mother-infant dyads in England and Ontario between 2002 and 2012. The study population comprised 13,577 and 4,966 mothers of infants with NAS and 4,205,675 and 929,985 control mothers in England and Ontario, respectively. Death records captured all-cause maternal mortality after delivery through March 31, 2016, and cause-specific maternal mortality to December 31, 2014. The primary exposure was a live birth of an infant with NAS, and the main outcome was all deaths among mothers following their date of delivery. We modelled the association between NAS and all-cause maternal mortality using Cox regression, and the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality within a competing risks framework. All-cause mortality rates, 10-year cumulative incidence risk of death, and crude and age-adjusted hazard ratios were calculated. Estimated crude 10-year mortality based on Kaplan-Meier curves in mothers of infants with NAS was 5.1% (95% CI 4.7%-5.6%) in England and 4.6% (95% CI 3.8%-5.5%) in Ontario versus 0.4% (95% CI 0.41%-0.42%) in England and 0.4% (95% CI 0.38%-0.41%) in Ontario for controls (p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Survival curves showed no clear inflection point or period of heightened risk. The crude hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 12.1 (95% 11.1-13.2; p < 0.001) in England and 11.4 (9.7-13.4; p < 0.001) in Ontario; age adjustment did not reduce the hazard ratios. The cumulative incidence of death was higher among NAS mothers than controls for almost all causes of death. The majority of deaths were by avoidable causes, defined as those that are preventable, amenable to care, or both. Limitations included lack of direct measures of maternal opioid use, other substance misuse, and treatments or supports received. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that approximately 1 in 20 mothers of infants with NAS died within 10 years of delivery in both England and Canada-a mortality risk 11-12 times higher than for control mothers. Risk of death was not limited to the early postpartum period targeted by most public health programs. Policy responses to the current opioid epidemic require effective strategies for long-term support to improve the health and welfare of opioid-using mothers and their children.

Child mortality in England compared with Sweden: a birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is almost twice as high in England compared with Sweden. We aimed to establish the extent to which adverse birth characteristics and socioeconomic factors explain this difference. METHODS: We developed nationally representative cohorts of singleton livebirths between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2012, using the Hospital Episode Statistics in England, and the Swedish Medical Birth Register in Sweden, with longitudinal follow-up from linked hospital admissions and mortality records. We analysed mortality as the outcome, based on deaths from any cause at age 2-27 days, 28-364 days, and 1-4 years. We fitted Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for England compared with Sweden in all three age groups. The models were adjusted for birth characteristics (gestational age, birthweight, sex, and congenital anomalies), and for socioeconomic factors (maternal age and socioeconomic status). FINDINGS: The English cohort comprised 3 932 886 births and 11 392 deaths and the Swedish cohort comprised 1 013 360 births and 1927 deaths. The unadjusted HRs for England compared with Sweden were 1·66 (95% CI 1·53-1·81) at 2-27 days, 1·59 (1·47-1·71) at 28-364 days, and 1·27 (1·15-1·40) at 1-4 years. At 2-27 days, 77% of the excess risk of death in England was explained by birth characteristics and a further 3% by socioeconomic factors. At 28-364 days, 68% of the excess risk of death in England was explained by birth characteristics and a further 11% by socioeconomic factors. At 1-4 years, the adjusted HR did not indicate a significant difference between countries. INTERPRETATION: Excess child mortality in England compared with Sweden was largely explained by the unfavourable distribution of birth characteristics in England. Socioeconomic factors contributed to these differences through associations with adverse birth characteristics and increased mortality after 1 month of age. Policies to reduce child mortality in England could have most impact by reducing adverse birth characteristics through improving the health of women before and during pregnancy and reducing socioeconomic disadvantage. FUNDING: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research (through the Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office, Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust).

The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015.

IntroductionSeveral vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are under development. Designing an effective vaccination programme for RSV requires information about the relative contribution of risk factors for severe RSV symptoms.AimTo inform preventive strategies in Europe by quantifying the contribution of key child, family and health service risk factors to the burden of RSV hospital admissions in young children.MethodsWe constructed a birth cohort study of all singleton children born in Scotland between October 2009 and September 2012 using linkage between birth registration, maternity, vaccination and hospital admission records, with follow-up until the age of 3 years. RSV-confirmed hospital admissions were defined using linkage to national laboratory surveillance data. We estimated hospital admission rates per 1,000 child years and length of stay according to each risk factor. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.ResultsThere were 5,185 RSV admissions among the 169,726 children in the cohort: 48.6% of admissions occurred before the age of 6 months, and 29.6% after the age of 1 year. Children born prematurely, small for gestational age, between July and December, with chronic conditions, older siblings, mothers < 30 years old or delayed infant vaccination had a significantly increased risk of admission. Minimising the risk posed by older siblings could reduce RSV admissions by up to 34%.ConclusionFuture RSV vaccination programmes must protect children throughout early childhood. Vaccination and/or interventions to reduce transmission by older siblings could substantially reduce RSV hospital admissions.

Causes of death up to 10 years after admissions to hospitals for self-inflicted, drug-related or alcohol-related, or violent injury during adolescence: a retrospective, nationwide, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency hospital admission with adversity-related injury (ie, self-inflicted, drug-related or alcohol-related, or violent injury) affects 4% of 10-19-year-olds. Their risk of death in the decade after hospital discharge is twice as high as that of adolescents admitted to hospitals for accident-related injury. We established how cause of death varied between these groups. METHODS: We did a retrospective, nationwide, cohort study comparing risks of death in five causal groups (suicide, drug-related or alcohol-related, homicide, accidental, and other causes of death) up to 10 years after hospital discharge following adversity-related (self-inflicted, drug-related or alcohol-related, or violent injury) or accident-related (for which there was no recorded adversity) injury. We included adolescents (aged 10-19 years) who were admitted as an emergency for adversity-related or accident-related injury between April 1, 1997, and March 31, 2012. We excluded adolescents who did not have their sex recorded, died during the index admission, had no valid discharge date, or were admitted with injury related to neither adversity nor accidents. We identified admissions for adversity-related or accident-related injury to the National Health Service in England with the International Classification of Diseases-10 codes in Hospital Episode Statistics data, linked to the Office for National Statistics mortality data for England, to establish cause-specific risks of death between the first day and 10 years after discharge, and to compare risks between adversity-related and accident-related index injury after adjustment for age group, socioeconomic status, and chronic conditions. FINDINGS: We identified 1 080 368 adolescents (388 937 [36·0%] girls, 690 546 [63·9%] boys, and 885 [0·1%] adolescents who did not have their sex recorded). Of these adolescents, we excluded 40 549 (10·4%) girls, 56 107 (8·1%) boys, and all 885 without their sex recorded. Of the 333 009 (30·8%) adolescents admitted with adversity-related injury (181 926 [54·6%] girls and 151 083 [45·4%] boys) and 649 818 (60·2%) admitted with accident-related injury (166 462 [25·6%] girls and 483 356 [74·4%] boys), 4782 (0·5%) died in the 10 years after discharge (1312 [27·4%] girls and 3470 [72·6%] boys). Adolescents discharged after adversity-related injury had higher risks of suicide (adjusted subhazard ratio 4·54 [95% CI 3·25-6·36] for girls, and 3·15 [2·73-3·63] for boys) and of drug-related or alcohol-related death (4·71 [3·28-6·76] for girls, and 3·53 [3·04-4·09] for boys) in the next decade than they did after accident-related injury. Although we included homicides in our estimates of 10-year risks of adversity-related deaths, we did not explicitly present these risks because of small numbers and risks of statistical disclosure. There was insufficient evidence that girls discharged after adversity-related injury had increased risks of accidental deaths compared with those discharged after accident-related injury (adjusted subhazard ratio 1·21 [95% CI 0·90-1·63]), but there was evidence that this risk was increased for boys (1·26 [1·09-1·47]). There was evidence of decreased risks of other causes of death in girls (0·64 [0·53-0·77]), but not in boys (0·99 [0·84-1·17]). Risks of suicide were increased following self-inflicted injury (adjusted subhazard ratio 5·11 [95% CI 3·61-7·23] for girls, and 6·20 [5·27-7·30] for boys), drug-related or alcohol-related injury (4·55 [3·23-6·39] for girls, and 4·51 [3·89-5·24] for boys), and violent injury in boys (1·43 [1·15-1·78]) versus accident-related injury. However, the increased risk of suicide in girls following violent injury versus accident-related injury was not significantly increased (adjusted subhazard ratio 1·48 [95% CI 0·73-2·98]). Following each type of index injury, risks of suicide and risks of drug-related or alcohol-related death were increased by similar magnitudes. INTERPRETATION: Risks of suicide were significantly increased after all types of adversity-related injury except for girls who had violent injury. Risks of drug-related or alcohol-related death increased by a similar magnitude. Current practice to reduce risks of harm after self-inflicted injury should be extended to drug-related or alcohol-related and violent injury in adolescence. Prevention should address the substantial risks of drug-related or alcohol-related death alongside risks of suicide. FUNDING: UK Department of Health.

Effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine in preventing amoxicillin prescribing in preschool children: a self-controlled case series study.

Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in reducing amoxicillin prescribing in preschool children in primary care. Patients and methods: We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large primary care database from the United Kingdom. We included children aged 2 to 4 years old at the start of either the 2013/14 or the 2014/15 winter season, with at least one amoxicillin prescription between September and May, irrespective of LAIV vaccination status. We used the self-controlled case series method to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Results: The total study sample included 33 137 children from 378 general practices during the two winter seasons. Of these children, 43.4% with at least one amoxicillin prescription had been vaccinated. The rate of amoxicillin prescribing was significantly reduced during periods of influenza vaccine immunity. The associated VE for amoxicillin prescribing was 12.8% (95% CI 6.9%, 18.3%) in 2013/14 and 14.5% (9.6%, 19.2%) in 2014/15. Given a VE of 14.5%, we estimated that amoxicillin prescribing could have been reduced by 5.6% if LAIV uptake in children aged 2-4 years increased to 50% in the 2014/15 winter season. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination of young children may contribute to a reduction in the prescribing of amoxicillin, one of the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in primary care. Further studies are required to confirm the size of the effect.

GUILD: GUidance for Information about Linking Data sets.

Record linkage of administrative and survey data is increasingly used to generate evidence to inform policy and services. Although a powerful and efficient way of generating new information from existing data sets, errors related to data processing before, during and after linkage can bias results. However, researchers and users of linked data rarely have access to information that can be used to assess these biases or take them into account in analyses. As linked administrative data are increasingly used to provide evidence to guide policy and services, linkage error, which disproportionately affects disadvantaged groups, can undermine evidence for public health. We convened a group of researchers and experts from government data providers to develop guidance about the information that needs to be made available about the data linkage process, by data providers, data linkers, analysts and the researchers who write reports. The guidance goes beyond recommendations for information to be included in research reports. Our aim is to raise awareness of information that may be required at each step of the linkage pathway to improve the transparency, reproducibility, and accuracy of linkage processes, and the validity of analyses and interpretation of results.

Impregnated central venous catheters for prevention of bloodstream infection in children (the CATCH trial): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Impregnated central venous catheters are recommended for adults to reduce bloodstream infections but not for children because there is not enough evidence to prove they are effective. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of any type of impregnation (antibiotic or heparin) compared with standard central venous catheters to prevent bloodstream infections in children needing intensive care. METHODS: We did a randomised controlled trial of children admitted to 14 English paediatric intensive care units. Children younger than 16 years were eligible if they were admitted or being prepared for admission to a participating paediatric intensive care unit and were expected to need a central venous catheter for 3 or more days. Children were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive a central venous catheter impregnated with antibiotics, a central venous catheter impregnated with heparin, or a standard central venous catheter with computer generated randomisation in blocks of three and six, stratified by method of consent, site, and envelope storage location within the site. The clinician responsible for inserting the central venous catheter was not masked to allocation, but allocation was concealed from patients, their parents, and the paediatric intensive care unit personnel responsible for their care. The primary outcome was time to first bloodstream infection between 48 h after randomisation and 48 h after central venous catheter removal with impregnated (antibiotic or heparin) versus standard central venous catheters, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety analyses compared central venous catheter-related adverse events in the subset of children for whom central venous catheter insertion was attempted (per-protocol population). This trial is registered with ISRCTN number, ISRCTN34884569. FINDINGS: Between Nov 25, 2010, and Nov 30, 2012, 1485 children were recruited to this study. We randomly assigned 502 children to receive standard central venous catheters, 486 to receive antibiotic-impregnated catheters, and 497 to receive heparin-impregnated catheters. Bloodstream infection occurred in 18 (4%) of those in the standard catheters group, 7 (1%) in the antibiotic-impregnated group, and 17 (3%) assigned to heparin-impregnated catheters. Primary analyses showed no effect of impregnated (antibiotic or heparin) catheters compared with standard central venous catheters (hazard ratio [HR] for time to first bloodstream infection 0.71, 95% CI 0.37-1.34). Secondary analyses showed that antibiotic central venous catheters were better than standard central venous catheters (HR 0.43, 0.20-0.96) and heparin central venous catheters (HR 0.42, 0.19-0.93), but heparin did not differ from standard central venous catheters (HR 1.04, 0.53-2.03). Clinically important and statistically significant absolute risk differences were identified only for antibiotic-impregnated catheters versus standard catheters (-2.15%, 95% CI -4.09 to -0.20; number needed to treat [NNT] 47, 95% CI 25-500) and antibiotic-impregnated catheters versus heparin-impregnated catheters (-1.98%, -3.90 to -0.06, NNT 51, 26-1667). Nine children (2%) in the standard central venous catheter group, 14 (3%) in the antibiotic-impregnated group, and 8 (2%) in the heparin-impregnated group had catheter-related adverse events. 45 (8%) in the standard group, 35 (8%) antibiotic-impregnated group, and 29 (6%) in the heparin-impregnated group died during the study. INTERPRETATION: Antibiotic-impregnated central venous catheters significantly reduced the risk of bloodstream infections compared with standard and heparin central venous catheters. Widespread use of antibiotic-impregnated central venous catheters could help prevent bloodstream infections in paediatric intensive care units. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK.

Risk factors for admission to hospital with laboratory-confirmed influenza in young children: birth cohort study.

We determined risk factors for influenza hospital admission in children aged <2 years to guide the design of paediatric vaccination programmes.We linked all singleton live births in Scotland from 2007 to 2015 to hospital administrative data and influenza laboratory reports. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify birth and family risk factors for influenza admissions.There were 1115 influenza admissions among 424 048 children. 85.1% of admitted children were born at term and were not in a high-risk group. Presence of an older sibling was strongly associated with increased risk of influenza admission, particularly for children aged <6 months: hazard ratio for second- versus first-born child was 2.02 (95% CI 1.52-2.69). Maternal age <30 years and birth during autumn (age <6 months) or spring (age 6-23 months) were also associated with admission risk.Targeting vaccination programmes to high-risk children will not prevent the vast majority of influenza admissions. Parents of children aged <2 years should be advised that vaccination of older siblings will protect younger children against influenza infection. As evidence of the impact of the universal influenza vaccine programme emerges, there may be a need to reconsider universal influenza vaccination in children aged 6 months to 2 years in the UK.

Utilising identifier error variation in linkage of large administrative data sources.

BACKGROUND: Linkage of administrative data sources often relies on probabilistic methods using a set of common identifiers (e.g. sex, date of birth, postcode). Variation in data quality on an individual or organisational level (e.g. by hospital) can result in clustering of identifier errors, violating the assumption of independence between identifiers required for traditional probabilistic match weight estimation. This potentially introduces selection bias to the resulting linked dataset. We aimed to measure variation in identifier error rates in a large English administrative data source (Hospital Episode Statistics; HES) and to incorporate this information into match weight calculation. METHODS: We used 30,000 randomly selected HES hospital admissions records of patients aged 0-1, 5-6 and 18-19 years, for 2011/2012, linked via NHS number with data from the Personal Demographic Service (PDS; our gold-standard). We calculated identifier error rates for sex, date of birth and postcode and used multi-level logistic regression to investigate associations with individual-level attributes (age, ethnicity, and gender) and organisational variation. We then derived: i) weights incorporating dependence between identifiers; ii) attribute-specific weights (varying by age, ethnicity and gender); and iii) organisation-specific weights (by hospital). Results were compared with traditional match weights using a simulation study. RESULTS: Identifier errors (where values disagreed in linked HES-PDS records) or missing values were found in 0.11% of records for sex and date of birth and in 53% of records for postcode. Identifier error rates differed significantly by age, ethnicity and sex (p < 0.0005). Errors were less frequent in males, in 5-6 year olds and 18-19 year olds compared with infants, and were lowest for the Asian ethic group. A simulation study demonstrated that substantial bias was introduced into estimated readmission rates in the presence of identifier errors. Attribute- and organisational-specific weights reduced this bias compared with weights estimated using traditional probabilistic matching algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: We provide empirical evidence on variation in rates of identifier error in a widely-used administrative data source and propose a new method for deriving match weights that incorporates additional data attributes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating information on variation by individual-level characteristics can help to reduce bias due to linkage error.

Newborn Length of Stay and Risk of Readmission.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the association between newborn length of hospital stay (LOS) and risk of readmission is conflicting. We compared methods for modelling this relationship, by gestational age, using population-level hospital data on births in England between 2005-14. METHODS: The association between LOS and unplanned readmission within 30 days of postnatal discharge was explored using four approaches: (i) modelling hospital-level LOS and readmission rates; (ii) comparing trends over time in LOS and readmission; (iii) modelling individual LOS and adjusted risk of readmission; and (iv) instrumental variable analyses (hospital-level mean LOS and number of births on the same day). RESULTS: Of 4 667 827 babies, 5.2% were readmitted within 30 days. Aggregated data showed hospitals with longer mean LOS were not associated with lower readmission rates for vaginal (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66, 1.13), or caesarean (aRR 0.89, 95% CI 0.72, 1.12) births. LOS fell by an average 2.0% per year for vaginal births and 3.4% for caesarean births, while readmission rates increased by 4.4 and 5.1% per year respectively. Approaches (iii) and (iv) indicated that longer LOS was associated with a reduced risk of readmission, but only for late preterm, vaginal births (34-36 completed weeks' gestation). CONCLUSIONS: Longer newborn LOS may benefit late preterm babies, possibly due to increased medical or psychosocial support for those at greater risk of potentially preventable readmissions after birth. Research based on observational data to evaluate relationships between LOS and readmission should use methods to reduce the impact of unmeasured confounding.

How can we make international comparisons of infant mortality in high income countries based on aggregate data more relevant to policy?

BACKGROUND: Infant mortality rates are commonly used to compare the health of populations. Observed differences are often attributed to variation in child health care quality. However, any differences are at least partly explained by variation in the prevalence of risk factors at birth, such as low birth weight. This distinction is important for designing interventions to reduce infant mortality. We suggest a simple method for decomposing inter-country differences in crude infant mortality rates into two metrics representing risk factors operating before and after birth. METHODS: We used data from 7 European countries participating in the EURO-PERISTAT project in 2010. We calculated crude and birth weight-standardised stillbirth and infant mortality rates using Norway as the standard population. We decomposed between-country differences in crude stillbirth and infant mortality rates into the within-country difference in crude and birth weight-standardised stillbirth and infant mortality rates (metric 1), reflecting prenatal risk factors, and the between-country difference in birth weight-standardised stillbirth and infant mortality rates (metric 2), reflecting risk factors operating after birth. We also calculated birth weight-specific mortality. RESULTS: Using our metrics, we showed that for England, Wales and Scotland risk factors before and after birth contributed equally to the differences in crude stillbirth and infant mortality rates relative to Norway. In Austria, Czech Republic and Switzerland the differences were driven primarily by metric 1, reflecting high rate of low birth weight. The highest values of metric 2 observed in Poland partially reflected high rates of congenital anomalies. CONCLUSIONS: Our suggested metrics can be used to guide policy decisions on preventing infant deaths through reducing risk factors at birth or improving the care of babies after birth. Aggregate data tabulated by birth weight/gestational age should be routinely collected and published in high-income countries where birth weight is reported on birth certificates.