Simulation of recent global temperature trends.

Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s. This study shows that the most recent portion of the global temperature record (1970 to 1992) can be closely reproduced by atmospheric models forced only with observed ocean surface temperatures. In agreement with a diverse suite of controversial observational evidence from the past 40 years, the upward trend in simulated tropospheric temperatures is caused by an enhancement of the tropical hydrologic cycle driven by increasing tropical ocean temperatures. Although it is possible that the observed behavior is due to natural climate variability, there is disquieting similarity between these model results, observed climate trends in recent decades, and the early expressions of the climatic response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide in numerical simulations.

The el nino cycle: a natural oscillator of the pacific ocean--atmosphere system.

Research conducted during the past decade has led to an understanding of many of the mechanisms responsible for the oceanic and atmospheric variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the reason for one of the fundamental characteristics of this phenomena, its quasi-periodicity, has remained unclear. Recently available evidence from a number of sources now suggests that the ENSO "cycle" operates as a natural oscillator based on relatively simple couplings between the tropical atmospheric circulation, the dynamics of the warm upper layer of the tropical ocean, and sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This concept and recent field evidence supporting the natural coupled oscillator hypothesis are outlined.

Sea Surface Temperature, Surface Wind Divergence, and Convection over Tropical Oceans.

Large-scale convection over the warm tropical oceans provides an important portion of the driving energy for the general circulation of the atmosphere. Analysis of regional associations between ocean temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection produced two important results. First, over broad regions of the Indian and Pacific oceans, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in excess of 27.5 degrees C are required for large-scale deep convection to occur. However, SSTs above that temperature are not a sufficient condition for convection and further increases in SST appear to have little effect on the intensity of convection. Second, when SSTs are above 27.5 degrees C, surface wind divergence is closely associated with the presence or absence of deep convection. Although this result could have been expected, it was also found that areas of persistent divergent surface flow coincide with regions where convection appears to be consistently suppressed even when SSTs are above 27.5 degrees C. Thus changes in atmospheric stability caused by remotely forced changes in subsidence aloft may play a major role in regulating convection over warm tropical oceans.