Fiber and whole grain intakes in relation to liver cancer risk: An analysis in 2 prospective cohorts and systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The association between fiber or whole grain intakes and the risk of liver cancer remains unclear. We assessed the associations between fiber or whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk among 2 prospective studies, and systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed these results with published prospective studies. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 111,396 participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and 26,085 men from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study were included. Intakes of total fiber and whole grains were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires. Study-specific HRs and 95% CI with liver cancer risk were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. We systematically reviewed existing literature, and studies were combined in a dose-response meta-analysis. A total of 277 (median follow-up = 15.6 y) and 165 (median follow-up = 16.0 y) cases of liver cancer were observed in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, respectively. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with liver cancer risk in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (HR 10g/day : 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86). No significant associations were observed between whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk in either study. Our meta-analysis included 2383 incident liver cancer cases (7 prospective cohorts) for fiber intake and 1523 cases (5 prospective cohorts) for whole grain intake; combined HRs for liver cancer risk were 0.83 (0.76-0.91) per 10 g/day of fiber and 0.92 (0.85-0.99) per 16 g/day (1 serving) of whole grains. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary fiber and whole grains were inversely associated with liver cancer risk. Further research exploring potential mechanisms and different fiber types is needed.

Identification of pre-diagnostic lipid sets associated with liver cancer risk using untargeted lipidomics and chemical set analysis: A nested case-control study within the ATBC cohort.

In pre-disposed individuals, a reprogramming of the hepatic lipid metabolism may support liver cancer initiation. We conducted a high-resolution mass spectrometry based untargeted lipidomics analysis of pre-diagnostic serum samples from a nested case-control study (219 liver cancer cases and 219 controls) within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study. Out of 462 annotated lipids, 158 (34.2%) were associated with liver cancer risk in a conditional logistic regression analysis at a false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05. A chemical set enrichment analysis (ChemRICH) and co-regulatory set analysis suggested that 22/28 lipid classes and 47/83 correlation modules were significantly associated with liver cancer risk (FDR <0.05). Strong positive associations were observed for monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), triacylglycerols (TAGs) and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) having MUFA acyl chains. Negative associations were observed for sphingolipids (ceramides and sphingomyelins), lysophosphatidylcholines, cholesterol esters and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) containing TAGs and PCs. Stearoyl-CoA desaturase enzyme 1 (SCD1), a rate limiting enzyme in fatty acid metabolism and ceramidases seems to be critical in this reprogramming. In conclusion, our study reports pre-diagnostic lipid changes that provide novel insights into hepatic lipid metabolism reprogramming may contribute to a pro-cell growth and anti-apoptotic tissue environment and, in turn, support liver cancer initiation.

Efficient risk-based collection of biospecimens in cohort studies: Designing a prospective study of diagnostic performance for multicancer detection tests.

In cohort studies, it can be infeasible to collect specimens on an entire cohort. For example, to estimate sensitivity of multiple Multi-Cancer Detection (MCD) assays, we desire an extra 80mL of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) blood, but this much extra blood is too expensive for us to collect on everyone. We propose a novel epidemiologic study design that efficiently oversamples those at highest baseline disease risk from whom to collect specimens, to increase the number of future cases with cfDNA blood collection. The variance reduction ratio from our risk-based subsample versus a simple random (sub)sample (SRS) depends primarily on the ratio of risk model sensitivity to the fraction of the cohort selected for specimen collection subject to constraining the risk model specificity. In a simulation where we chose 34% of Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial cohort at highest risk of lung cancer for cfDNA blood collection, we could enrich the number of lung cancers 2.42-fold and the standard deviation of lung-cancer MCD sensitivity was 31-33% reduced versus SRS. Risk-based collection of specimens on a subsample of the cohort could be a feasible and efficient approach to collecting extra specimens for molecular epidemiology.

Use of cholesterol-lowering medications in relation to risk of primary liver cancer in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Although the relation between statin use and liver cancer risk has been extensively examined, few studies have examined other cholesterol-lowering medications in relation to liver cancer risk. The authors examined five classes of nonstatin medications and liver cancer risk. METHODS: A nested case-control including 3719 cases and 14,876 matched controls was conducted within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Additional matches on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease were also implemented. The medications examined included cholesterol absorption inhibitors, bile acid sequestrants, fibrates, niacin, and omega-3 fatty acids. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Cholesterol absorption inhibitor use was associated with reduced liver cancer risk in the overall analysis (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.96) and in analyses based on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease status. Although bile acid sequestrant use was associated with increased liver cancer risk in the overall analysis (odds ratio, 5.31; 95% confidence interval, 3.53-7.97), the results of the analyses based on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease status were inconsistent. [Correction added on 19 August 2024, after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the value '3.534' has been changed to '3.54'.]. No associations were observed for the other medications. CONCLUSIONS: Cholesterol absorption inhibitors may be associated with reduced liver cancer risk. Whether bile acid sequestrant use was associated with increased risk was only partially supported in the current study.

Sex-specific associations between sodium and potassium intake and overall and cause-specific mortality: a large prospective U.S. cohort study, systematic review, and updated meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease (CVD) health and mortality has been studied for decades, including the well-established association with blood pressure. However, non-linear patterns, dose-response associations, and sex differences in the relationship between sodium and potassium intakes and overall and cause-specific mortality remain to be elucidated and a comprehensive examination is lacking. Our study objective was to determine whether intake of sodium and potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio are associated with overall and cause-specific mortality in men and women. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 237,036 men and 179,068 women in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were utilized to calculate hazard ratios. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also conducted. RESULTS: During 6,009,748 person-years of follow-up, there were 77,614 deaths, 49,297 among men and 28,317 among women. Adjusting for other risk factors, we found a significant positive association between higher sodium intake (≥ 2,000 mg/d) and increased overall and CVD mortality (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, men and women HRs = 1.06 and 1.10, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001; CVD mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs = 1.07 and 1.21, Pnonlinearity = 0.0002 and 0.01). Higher potassium intake and a lower sodium-potassium ratio were associated with a reduced mortality, with women showing stronger associations (overall mortality, fifth versus lowest quintile, HRs for potassium = 0.96 and 0.82, and HRs for the sodium-potassium ratio = 1.09 and 1.23, for men and women, respectively; Pnonlinearity < 0.05 and both P for interaction ≤ 0.0006). The overall mortality associations with intake of sodium, potassium and the sodium-potassium ratio were generally similar across population risk factor subgroups with the exception that the inverse potassium-mortality association was stronger in men with lower body mass index or fruit consumption (Pinteraction < 0.0004). The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies based on 42 risk estimates, 2,085,904 participants, and 80,085 CVD events yielded very similar results (highest versus lowest sodium categories, pooled relative risk for CVD events = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.20; Pnonlinearity < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates significant positive associations between daily sodium intake (within the range of sodium intake between 2,000 and 7,500 mg/d), the sodium-potassium ratio, and risk of CVD and overall mortality, with women having stronger sodium-potassium ratio-mortality associations than men, and with the meta-analysis providing compelling support for the CVD associations. These data may suggest decreasing sodium intake and increasing potassium intake as means to improve health and longevity, and our data pointing to a sex difference in the potassium-mortality and sodium-potassium ratio-mortality relationships provide additional evidence relevant to current dietary guidelines for the general adult population. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Identifier: CRD42022331618.

Associations of Dietary Cholesterol, Serum Cholesterol, and Egg Consumption With Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality: Systematic Review and Updated Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial research highlighting the importance of exogenous dietary cholesterol intake and endogenous serum cholesterol level in human health, a thorough evaluation of the associations is lacking. Our study objective was to examine overall and cause-specific mortality in relation to dietary and serum cholesterol, as well as egg consumption, and conduct an updated meta-regression analysis of cohort studies. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 27 078 men in the ATBC Study (Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention). Multivariable-controlled cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 31-year absolute mortality risk differences. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies was also performed (PROSPERO [URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/; Unique identifier: CRD42021272756]). RESULTS: Based on 482 316 person-years of follow-up, we identified 22 035 deaths, including 9110 deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Greater dietary cholesterol and egg consumption were associated with increased risk of overall and CVD-related mortality. Hazard ratios for each additional 300 mg cholesterol intake per day were 1.10 and 1.13 for overall and CVD-related mortality, respectively; for each additional 50-g egg consumed daily, hazard ratios were 1.06 and 1.09, respectively, for overall and CVD-related mortality (all P values<0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, higher serum total cholesterol concentrations were associated with increased risk of CVD-related mortality (hazard ratios per 1 SD increment, 1.14; P<0.0001). The observed associations were generally similar across cohort subgroups. The updated meta-analysis of cohort studies on the basis of 49 risk estimates, 3 601 401 participants, and 255 479 events showed consumption of 1 additional 50-g egg daily was associated with significantly increased CVD risk (pooled relative risk, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.00-1.08]; I2=80.1%). In the subgroup analysis of geographic regions (Pinteraction=0.02), an increase of 50-g egg consumed daily was associated with a higher risk of CVD in US cohorts (pooled relative risk, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.14]) and appeared related to a higher CVD risk in European cohorts with borderline significance (pooled relative risk, 1.05), but was not associated with CVD risk in Asian cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort study and updated meta-analysis, greater dietary cholesterol and egg consumption were associated with increased risk of overall and CVD-related mortality. Our findings support restricted consumption of dietary cholesterol as a means to improve long-term health and longevity.

Testosterone therapy and cancer risks among men in the SEER-Medicare linked database.

BACKGROUND: We examined associations between two forms of testosterone therapy (TT) and risks of seven cancers among men. METHODS: SEER-Medicare combines cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme with Medicare claims. Our population-based case-control study included incident cancer cases diagnosed between 1992-2015: prostate (n = 130,713), lung (n = 105,466), colorectal (n = 56,433), bladder (n = 38,873), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 17,854), melanoma (n = 14,241), and oesophageal (n = 9116). We selected 100,000 controls from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries and used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: TT was associated with lower risk of distant-stage prostate cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86; topical OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.24-1.03). We also observed inverse associations for distant-stage colorectal cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90; topical OR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.24). Risks of distant-stage colorectal and prostate cancers decreased with time after initiating TT by injection/implantation. By contrast, TT was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma (injection/implantation OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.37-2.11). TT was not associated with bladder cancer, oesophageal cancer, lung cancer or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. CONCLUSION: TT was inversely associated with distant-stage prostate and colorectal cancers but was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma. These observations may suggest an aetiologic role for TT or the presence of residual confounding.

Racial/ethnic disparities in hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and mortality rates in the United States, 1992-2018.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCC is characterized by racial/ethnic disparities in rates. Recent USA reports suggest that incidence has begun to decline, but it is not clear whether the declines have occurred among all groups, nor whether mortality has declined. Thus, the current study examined USA incidence and mortality between 1992 and 2018. APPROACH & RESULTS: HCC incidence and incidence-based mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were used to calculate age-standardized rates by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC). Age-period-cohort models assessed the effects on trends of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Overall, HCC incidence significantly declined between 2015 and 2018 (APC, -5.6%). Whereas most groups experienced incidence declines, the trends were most evident among Asians/Pacific Islanders, women, and persons <50 years old. Exceptions were the rates among non-Hispanic Black persons, which did not significantly decline (APC, -0.7), and among American Indians/Alaska Natives, which significantly increased (APC, +4.3%). Age-period-cohort modeling found that birth cohort had a greater effect on rates than calendar period. Among the baby boom cohorts, the 1950-1954 cohort had the highest rates. Similar to the overall incidence decline, HCC mortality rates declined between 2013 and 2018 (APC, -2.2%). CONCLUSIONS: HCC incidence and mortality rates began to decline for most groups in 2015, but persistent differences in rates continued to exist. Rates among non-Hispanic Black persons did not decline significantly, and rates among American Indians/Alaska Natives significantly increased, suggesting that greater effort is needed to reduce the HCC burden among these vulnerable groups.

Confidence intervals for prevalence estimates from complex surveys with imperfect assays.

There are established methods for estimating disease prevalence with associated confidence intervals for complex surveys with perfect assays, or simple random sample surveys with imperfect assays. We develop and study methods for the complicated case of complex surveys with imperfect assays. The new methods use the melding method to combine gamma intervals for directly standardized rates and established adjustments for imperfect assays by estimating sensitivity and specificity. One of the new methods appears to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios. We compare our new methods to established methods in special cases (complex surveys with perfect assays or simple surveys with imperfect assays). In some simulations, our methods appear to guarantee coverage, while competing methods have much lower than nominal coverage, especially when overall prevalence is very low. In other settings, our methods are shown to have higher than nominal coverage. We apply our method to a seroprevalence survey of SARS-CoV-2 in undiagnosed adults in the United States between May and July 2020.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites. METHODS: Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method. RESULTS: There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma). CONCLUSIONS: Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Agreement Between the Prevalence of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Determined by Transient Elastography and Fatty Liver Indices.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem linked to the rising prevalence of obesity and metabolic disorders.1 Accurate estimates of NAFLD in populations are challenging because the gold standard for detection is liver biopsy, an invasive procedure that precludes its use in research settings.2 NAFLD can also be detected via noninvasive imaging, such as ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging-determined proton density fat fraction, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and the controlled attenuation parameter derived via transient elastography (CAP-TE).2 Given the complexities of imaging in population studies, however, many estimates have been based on calculated indices, such as the Fatty Liver Index (FLI)3 and the Hepatic Steatosis Index (HSI).4 Concern has been raised that the indices underestimate the prevalence of NAFLD,5 thus downplaying the scope of the public health challenge. Ability to examine whether these concerns are substantive has been provided by a recent study of the US population. Using data from the study, it was reported that the US prevalence of CAP-TE-determined NAFLD was 47.8%.6 The current analysis used data from the same national study to examine how well the fatty liver indices corresponded to CAP-TE-determined NAFLD. Because most persons with NAFLD reportedly have elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels,7 the correspondence between elevated ALT and CAP-TE was also examined.

Seroprevalence and Determinants of Helicobacter pylori Infection in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Helicobacter pylori infection is the primary known risk factor for gastric cancer. Despite the global decline in H. pylori prevalence, this infection remains a major public health concern in developing areas, including Latin America. Our study aimed to determine H. pylori seroprevalence and identified its determinants among Hispanics/Latinos living in the United States (U.S.). METHODS: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) is a population-based sample of self-identified Hispanics/Latinos (n = 16,144) in four U.S. communities, aged 18 to 74 years, recruited from randomly selected households using a stratified two-stage area probability sample design based on sampling households within sampled census block groups weighted for differential response rates. Anti-H. pylori immunoglobulin G antibodies were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using plasma samples. We calculated adjusted seroprevalence (i.e., predicted margins) from multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: The overall weighted H. pylori seroprevalence was 57% among HCHS/SOL participants, with 38% and 62% seropositivity among U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born individuals, respectively. Age-adjusted prevalence varied by self-reported Hispanic/Latino background, ranging from 47% in Puerto Rican to 72% in Central American backgrounds. Adjusted H. pylori seroprevalence was higher in the following groups: older age, male sex, lower education, non-U.S. born status, smoking, greater number of missing teeth, fewer doctor visits, lower ferritin level, and hepatitis A seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: H. pylori seroprevalence in Hispanics/Latinos remains high and differed significantly by Hispanic/Latino background. H. pylori seropositivity is strongly associated with poor socioeconomic conditions. These findings highlight the ongoing importance of this bacterial infection in the U.S.

Circadian timing of eating and BMI among adults in the American Time Use Survey.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Experimental studies of time-restricted eating suggest that limiting the daily eating window, shifting intake to the biological morning, and avoiding eating close to the biological night may promote metabolic health and prevent weight gain. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used the Eating & Health Module of the 2006-2008 and 2014-2016 American Time Use Survey to examine cross-sectional associations of timing of eating in relation to sleep/wake times as a proxy for circadian timing with body mass index (BMI). The analytical sample included 38 302 respondents (18-64 years; BMI 18.5-50.0 kg/m2). A single 24-hour time use diary was used to calculate circadian timing of eating variables: eating window (time between first and last eating activity); morning fast (time between end of sleep and start of eating window); and evening fast (time between end of eating window and start of sleep). Multinomial logistic regression and predictive margins were used to estimate adjusted population prevalences (AP) by BMI categories and changes in prevalences associated with a one-hour change in circadian timing of eating, controlling for sociodemographic and temporal characteristics. RESULTS: A one-hour increase in eating window was associated with lower adjusted prevalence of obesity (AP = 27.1%, SE = 0.1%). Conversely, a one-hour increase in morning fast (AP = 28.7%, SE = 0.1%) and evening fast (AP = 28.5%, SE = 0.1%) were each associated with higher prevalence of obesity; interactions revealed differing patterns of association by combination of eating window with morning/evening fast (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to hypotheses, longer eating windows were associated with a lower adjusted prevalence of obesity and longer evening fasts were associated with a higher prevalence of obesity. However, as expected, longer morning fast was associated with a higher adjusted prevalence of obesity. Studies are needed to disentangle the contributions of diet quality/quantity and social desirability bias in the relationship between circadian timing of eating and BMI.

Clock Time of First Eating Episode and Prospective Risk of All-Cause Mortality in US Adults.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition that a morning or evening preference is associated with time of eating, metabolic health, and morbidity. However, few studies have examined the association of time of eating with mortality. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of time of first recalled ingestive episode with the prospective risk of all-cause mortality. METHODS: We used mortality-linked data from the NHANES conducted in 1988-1994 and 1999-2014 (n = 34,609; age ≥ 40 years). The exposure was quartiles (Q1-Q4) of clock time of first eating episode self-reported in the baseline 24-hour dietary recall. The outcome was follow-up time from the date of NHANES examination to the date of death or end of the follow-up period (31 December 2015). We used proportional hazards regression methods to determine the independent association of time of first eating episode with relative hazard of all-cause mortality, with adjustments for multiple covariates and the complex survey design. Multiple linear regression methods were used to examine the associations of time of first eating episode with baseline cardiometabolic biomarkers and dietary attributes. RESULTS: In this national cohort, with a median age of ∼55 years (95% CI: 54.6-55.4 years) at baseline and a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR, 8.75 years), there were 10,303 deaths. The median times of first eating episodes in Q1-Q4 were 05:45, 07:00, 08:00, and 10:00, respectively. Covariate-adjusted relative hazards of mortality in Q1 to Q3 of the time of the first eating episode were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.96), 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.95), 0.94 (95% CI: 0.87-1.02), with Q4 as the referent (P = 0.0008). Qualitative dietary attributes were inversely related with the time of the first eating episode; however, BMI and serum concentrations of glycemic biomarkers increased with later times of first eating episode (P ≤ 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Recall of an earlier time of the first eating episode by ≥40-year-old US participants was suggestive of a small relative survival advantage in this observational study.

Weight calibration to improve efficiency for estimating pure risks from the additive hazards model with the nested case-control design.

We study the efficiency of covariate-specific estimates of pure risk (one minus the survival function) when some covariates are only available for case-control samples nested in a cohort. We focus on the semiparametric additive hazards model in which the hazard function equals a baseline hazard plus a linear combination of covariates with either time-varying or time-invariant coefficients. A published approach uses the design-based inclusion probabilities to reweight the nested case-control data. We obtain more efficient estimates of pure risks by calibrating the design weights to data available in the entire cohort, for both time-varying and time-invariant covariate coefficients. We develop explicit variance formulas for the weight-calibrated estimates based on influence functions. Simulations show the improvement in precision by using weight calibration and confirm the consistency of variance estimators and the validity of inference based on asymptotic normality. Examples are provided using data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Study (PLCO).

Gastroesophageal reflux disease: A risk factor for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have suggested that gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) may be associated with risk of squamous cancers of the larynx and esophagus; however, most of these studies have had methodological limitations or insufficient control for potential confounders. METHODS: We prospectively examined the association between GERD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EADC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in 490,605 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort who were 50-71 years of age at baseline. Exposure to risk factors were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. GERD diagnosis was extracted among eligible participants via linkage to Medicare diagnoses codes and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of GERD were computed using Cox regression. RESULTS: From 1995 to 2011, we accrued 931 cases of EADC, 876 cases of LSCC, and 301 cases of ESCC in this cohort and estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.23 (95% CI, 1.72-2.90), 1.91 (95% CI, 1.24-2.94), and 1.99 (95% CI, 1.39-2.84) for EADC, LSCC, and ESCC, respectively. The associations were independent of sex, smoking status, alcohol intake, and follow-up time periods. We estimated that among the general population in the United States, 22.04% of people aged 50-71 years suffered from GERD. Using risk factor distributions for the United States from national survey data, 16.92% of LSCC cases and 17.32% of ESCC cases among individuals aged 50-71 years were estimated to be associated with GERD. CONCLUSION: GERD is a common gastrointestinal disorder, but future prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings. If replicated, they may inform clinical surveillance of GERD patients and suggest new avenues for prevention of these malignancies.

Population Attributable Risks of Subtypes of Esophageal and Gastric Cancers in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To help target preventive strategies, we estimated US population attributable risks (PARs) of demographic and potentially modifiable risk factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA). METHODS: We prospectively examined the associations for risk factors and these cancers in 490,605 people in the National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort Diet and Health Study cohort from 1995 to 2011. Exposures were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Diagnoses of gastroesophageal reflux disease were extracted for a subset of eligible National Institutes of Health-the American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health cohort subjects through linkage to Medicare and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible subjects. Hazard ratios were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Adjusted population attributable risks were calculated for the US population aged 50-71 years by combining the hazard ratios with the estimated joint distribution of risk factor prevalence from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. RESULTS: Smoking remained the most important risk factor for ESCC and was estimated to cause more than 1/3 of EAC and GCA and 1/10 of GNCA. Obesity and gastroesophageal reflux disease were associated with more than 1/2 of EAC and 1/3 of GCA. Compared with each lowest-risk level category, common risk factors were estimated to be associated with 73.7% of ESCC (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.1%-85.4%), 70.3% of EAC (95% CI: 64.4%-76.2%), 69.3% of GCA (95% CI: 61.0%-77.7%), and 33.6% of GNCA (95% CI: 21.7%-45.5%). DISCUSSION: These factors accounted for a large proportion of esophageal and gastric cancers in the United States, highlighting opportunities for education and intervention to reduce the burden of these highly fatal cancers.

Trends in oral contraceptive and intrauterine device use among reproductive-aged women in the US from 1999 to 2017.

PURPOSE: Since the 1960s, increasing oral contraceptive (OC) use has mirrored decreasing ovarian cancer incidence. The impact of intrauterine devices (IUDs) on cancer risk is less well established. With improved access and increased options, we must consider how changing usage can affect cancer risks. METHODS: Nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2016) and the National Survey for Family Growth (NSFG, 2006-2017) were used to evaluate contraceptive use over time in premenopausal women (NHANES n = 13,179; NSFG n = 26,262). Trends were assessed overall and by race, age, pregnancy history, education, and body mass index. RESULTS: The average annual absolute increase in self-reported IUD use was 0.81% (NSFG), while OC use decreased 0.49% in NSFG and 0.47% in NHANES. This represents a significant decrease in OC use in NSFG [annual percent change (APC) - 2.2% (95% CI - 3.4, - 1.0%), p < 0.01]. Trends in OC use varied somewhat by pregnancy history in NHANES (p-interaction = 0.054). In contrast, IUD use increased 6.2% annually [(1.4, 11.2%), p = 0.03] and varied significantly by pregnancy history (p-interaction < 0.01). Nulligravid women increased IUD use 11.0% annually [(2.6, 20.1%), p = 0.02] compared to women with prior pregnancy at 5.2% [(0.4, 10.2%), p = 0.04]. In 2015-2017, IUD use was 76.5% hormonal (71.1, 81.8%) and 22.9% copper (17.4, 28.3%) with greater hormonal IUD use in obese women [89.4%, (82.9, 95.9%)]. CONCLUSION: Increasing IUD use outpaced declining OC use in premenopausal US women. There may be a resulting decreased gynecologic cancer risk as more women gain access to potentially risk-reducing contraceptives.

Attributable Fractions of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease for Mortality in the United States: Results From the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey With 27 Years of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses a range of conditions, from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Studies in the United States have reported an increased mortality risk among individuals with NAFLD; therefore, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for mortality were examined. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 12,253 adult individuals with ultrasound assessment of NAFLD from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and mortality follow-up through 2015 were included in the analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NAFLD in association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Overall, sex- and race/ethnicity-specific PAFs and 95% CIs were estimated. In the current study, presence of NAFLD was associated with a 20% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08, 1.34). The overall PAF for all-cause mortality associated with NAFLD was 7.5% (95% CI, 3.0, 12.0). The PAF for diabetes-specific mortality was 38.0% (95% CI, 13.1, 63.0) overall, 40.8% (95% CI, 2.1, 79.6) in men, and 36.8% (95% CI, 6.6, 67.0) in women. The PAF for liver disease (LD)-specific mortality was notably higher in men (68.3%; 95% CI, 36.3, 100.0) than women (3.5%; 95% CI, -39.7, 46.8). In the race-specific analysis, the PAFs of NAFLD for all-cause mortality (9.3%; 95% CI, 4.0, 14.6) and diabetes-specific mortality (44.4%; 95% CI, 10.8, 78.0) were significantly greater than zero only for whites. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, approximately 8% of all-cause mortality and more than one-third of LD- and diabetes-specific deaths are associated with NAFLD. With these high percentages, efforts are needed to reduce the burden of NAFLD in the United States.

Associations Between Prediagnostic Concentrations of Circulating Sex Steroid Hormones and Liver Cancer Among Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In almost all countries, incidence rates of liver cancer (LC) are 100%-200% higher in males than in females. However, this difference is predominantly driven by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which accounts for 75% of LC cases. Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) accounts for 12% of cases and has rates only 30% higher in males. Hormones are hypothesized to underlie observed sex differences. We investigated whether prediagnostic circulating hormone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) levels were associated with LC risk, overall and by histology, by leveraging resources from five prospective cohorts. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Seven sex steroid hormones and SHBG were quantitated using gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry and competitive electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, respectively, from baseline serum/plasma samples of 191 postmenopausal female LC cases (HCC, n = 83; ICC, n = 56) and 426 controls, matched on sex, cohort, age, race/ethnicity, and blood collection date. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between a one-unit increase in log2 hormone value (approximate doubling of circulating concentration) and LC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. A doubling in the concentration of 4-androstenedione (4-dione) was associated with a 50% decreased LC risk (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.30-0.82), whereas SHBG was associated with a 31% increased risk (OR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.05-1.63). Examining histology, a doubling of estradiol was associated with a 40% increased risk of ICC (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.05-1.89), but not HCC (OR = 1.12; 95% CI = 0.81-1.54). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that higher levels of 4-dione may be associated with lower, and SHBG with higher, LC risk in women. However, this study does not support the hypothesis that higher estrogen levels decrease LC risk. Indeed, estradiol may be associated with an increased ICC risk.